Android As We Know It Will Die In The Next Two Years

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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,496
7,752
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iOS is at 43% while Android is at 47%.

iOS is catching up at a very fast rate.

This assumes that the not only does Apple maintain those sales rates, but that it also eventually surpasses Android.

I doubt that the first part will hold true. Those numbers are the result of a new iPhone, Apple offering a $0 with contract phone, and Android sales generally being low during this quarter.

The second is only likely if a third platform gains traction and takes more share from Android than it does from iOS. Windows Phone 7 has the potential to do it, but it's a serious outside shot at this point given how little they've done so far.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
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those penny deals are only for new customers on a carrier. kind of sucks for the 40% of smartphone users on a family plan

iphone is the same price everywhere and no matter if you're a current customer on a carrier

Not always... My wife upgraded from a Droid to an HTC Thunderbolt 4G on Amazon Wireless, and the phone only cost her $49. The same phone was $79 on Verizon's site, even after her so-called "upgrade discount". If she would have picked it up at a Verizon store, the damn thing would have cost $149.

Sadly, you can't get online discounts like that on the iPhone... or pretty much any Apple product for that matter.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
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those penny deals are only for new customers on a carrier. kind of sucks for the 40% of smartphone users on a family plan

iphone is the same price everywhere and no matter if you're a current customer on a carrier

No they aren't, I got a free Galaxy S2 on At&t a while back and I was an existing customer on a family plan.
 

Necrolezbeast

Senior member
Apr 11, 2002
838
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true, but I still think it's in their best interest to unify the android platform, too many flavors as is, don't need even more appstores.

google just released an app design guideline, and is rumored to release a nexus tablet to compete directly with the kindle fire, so it's still up in the air, google may just decide to close android with 5.0, just like they did with honeycomb.

Uhhh.... Honeycomb's source code wasn't released because google didn't want it thrown onto phones when it was designed for tablets... ICS was where it unified the two, thus we have the source code... stop making up random conspiracy theories about what is clearly NOT GOING TO happen with the next big Android release..

There is plenty of room for both android and ios in the near and distant future... neither are going anywhere so stop speculating about a bunch of random bs... Jesus, fanbois are so stupid! That goes for any fanboi of any device.... they're all ignorant douchebags that can't handle other people possibly having a different opinion.

Edit: All of this is irrelevant anyway since the world is gonna end in December, right? gg conspiracy lovers
 
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J-Money

Senior member
Feb 9, 2003
552
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I don't think it matters whether Apple passes Android or not, but I think the most impressive thing is that iOS is on one type of phone by 1 manufacturer going up against what? 20-30 phones? By 4 or 5 manufacturers? And still being competitive.

If I was Google I probably wouldn't blow my own horn that much since when someone walks into a store and can pick from 15 Android phones or 1 or 2 iPhones and the iPhone is still being picked 1 out of 2 or 3 times is a pretty amazing feat. If it was 10 to 1 for Android it'd be worth bragging about.

Make no mistake, I myself love Android more. I have a Galaxy Nexus and I just gave my wife my Nexus S (she had iPhone), but business wise Apple is doing amazing while Android has some stuff to figure out (in part with the manufacturers and carriers).
 

poofyhairguy

Lifer
Nov 20, 2005
14,612
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I disagree with the premise that Amazon created a fork of Android.

As it is now my sister (who has a SGS2) and my mom (who has a Kindle Fire) share an Amazon account. This was they can share the free app a day (especially because at least one will remember to get it each day), and they can share their experiences about the different apps.

This only works because the same apps work on both devices. If Amazon's store or devices got too far away from normal Android they would lose a lot of the progress already in their own app store.

I bet Amazon's store and devices will stay compatible, if only with a few Android versions back always (so ICS support sometime in 2013 or so).
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
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Uhhh.... Honeycomb's source code wasn't released because google didn't want it thrown onto phones when it was designed for tablets... ICS was where it unified the two, thus we have the source code... stop making up random conspiracy theories about what is clearly NOT GOING TO happen with the next big Android release..

There is plenty of room for both android and ios in the near and distant future... neither are going anywhere so stop speculating about a bunch of random bs... Jesus, fanbois are so stupid! That goes for any fanboi of any device.... they're all ignorant douchebags that can't handle other people possibly having a different opinion.

Edit: All of this is irrelevant anyway since the world is gonna end in December, right? gg conspiracy lovers

Regardless of why they did it, Imho it was against the spirit of open source... I doubt Google will do that again though, their partners are probably getting very antsy now that Google is poised to become their competition (via Motorola)
 
Feb 19, 2001
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I don't think it matters whether Apple passes Android or not, but I think the most impressive thing is that iOS is on one type of phone by 1 manufacturer going up against what? 20-30 phones? By 4 or 5 manufacturers? And still being competitive.

If I was Google I probably wouldn't blow my own horn that much since when someone walks into a store and can pick from 15 Android phones or 1 or 2 iPhones and the iPhone is still being picked 1 out of 2 or 3 times is a pretty amazing feat. If it was 10 to 1 for Android it'd be worth bragging about.

Make no mistake, I myself love Android more. I have a Galaxy Nexus and I just gave my wife my Nexus S (she had iPhone), but business wise Apple is doing amazing while Android has some stuff to figure out (in part with the manufacturers and carriers).

sums it up pretty well.
 

_Aurel_

Member
Jan 10, 2011
89
0
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I don't think it matters whether Apple passes Android or not, but I think the most impressive thing is that iOS is on one type of phone by 1 manufacturer going up against what? 20-30 phones? By 4 or 5 manufacturers? And still being competitive.

If I was Google I probably wouldn't blow my own horn that much since when someone walks into a store and can pick from 15 Android phones or 1 or 2 iPhones and the iPhone is still being picked 1 out of 2 or 3 times is a pretty amazing feat. If it was 10 to 1 for Android it'd be worth bragging about.

Make no mistake, I myself love Android more. I have a Galaxy Nexus and I just gave my wife my Nexus S (she had iPhone), but business wise Apple is doing amazing while Android has some stuff to figure out (in part with the manufacturers and carriers).

You mean to say Apple has 5 types of iPhones, all hitting the $0, $99, $199, $299, $399 price point, and pushing the carriers to over-subsidize their phones (do the math, even with a $350 etf, the carriers are still eating $100 over the full retail price). Android phones are priced competitively (and sometimes overpriced at retail) and the only place to get a decent price are online.
 

J-Money

Senior member
Feb 9, 2003
552
0
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You mean to say Apple has 5 types of iPhones, all hitting the $0, $99, $199, $299, $399 price point, and pushing the carriers to over-subsidize their phones (do the math, even with a $350 etf, the carriers are still eating $100 over the full retail price). Android phones are priced competitively (and sometimes overpriced at retail) and the only place to get a decent price are online.

I don't consider a 16GB vs. 32GB a different phone. It's identical in every way except GBs.

I mean realistic choices. Something people actually take time to think about. There are a large amount of "different" Android phones. From size / shape / features / maker. Which I think is great.

With iPhone you either win or lose the customer with 1 standard design, 1 standard UI/OS and very similar feature sets (between 3GS/4/4S).

As an example, Rogers here in Canada has 16 very different Android choices. And while they list 8 choices for iOS, it's really choosing between a 4 or a 4S in black or white then choosing how many GBs. So really it's two choices, a 4 or 4S?
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
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I don't consider a 16GB vs. 32GB a different phone. It's identical in every way except GBs.

I mean realistic choices. Something people actually take time to think about. There are a large amount of "different" Android phones. From size / shape / features / maker. Which I think is great.

With iPhone you either win or lose the customer with 1 standard design, 1 standard UI/OS and very similar feature sets (between 3GS/4/4S).

As an example, Rogers here in Canada has 16 very different Android choices. And while they list 8 choices for iOS, it's really choosing between a 4 or a 4S in black or white then choosing how many GBs. So really it's two choices, a 4 or 4S?
It is still a choice people are *forced* to make at the initial purchase unlike a phone with upgradable memory.
 

J-Money

Senior member
Feb 9, 2003
552
0
0
It is still a choice people are *forced* to make at the initial purchase unlike a phone with upgradable memory.

Sure, but they don't win a customer with that choice. You have to like the phone and the iPhone has to match all/most of the criteria before that's an issue.

If you don't like the iPhone 16GB (the phone itself like design, UI / OS) then the 32GB model won't change your mind is what I'm getting at.

With Android you can choose many types with different size memory / upgradable memory / screen size / UI / physical keyboard / "3D". With Apple it's incredibly limited. Yet with so many limits, they sell so many.
 
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StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
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The sooner Android phone makers realize the only thing they should do is just follow the hardware e-penis contests, and simply leave the software side to Google alone, the better for us and them.

Nobody gives a shit to what the makers do to "enhance" Android, but at the same time everyone is pissed when they find out their phones gets ICS like 9 months later after release other for no good reason other than sheer laziness.
 
Dec 30, 2004
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I think the article is "completely inane and stupid", for a few reasons,
1. Because this is CNN we're talking about,
2. don't be surprised if the journalism is subpar, meaning
3. when you see stories that fail to pass the test of reasonableness, and especially
4. make sweeping claims to the cataclysmic
5. then you know it's a story written to generate pageviews.

The reason journalists write stuff like this is because the sort of people that could provide more than a half-reasoned argument for or against (which coincidentally in this case would be people that have a thorough understanding of the state of Android in the marketplace) are busy being business consultants or some other higher paying job...in short they, by nature, have the ability to generate pageviews, not accurate assessments of business positions. If they do, then they are working for the Economist or some other legitimate commentary.

This sort of thing happens in politics too, in order to generate publicity. But in this case, the idea is to generate traffic to generate money. So, you take a very peculiar stance on a well known topic, trying to make controversy out of nothing, and try to offend lots of people with your stupid reasoning. Then they all get riled up and start discussing it with each other and the news agency or person seeking media attention wins. It's actually a lot like trolling. In fact, I'd say that's definitely what this was.

1. Google buying Motorola and alienating all of the tier one handset makers (none of which to this day have the spine to state it publicly but all of which have now come up with their "plan B"),
Fails the test of reasonableness-- they're attributing malicious intent to something that was entirely about acquiring a patent portfolio. Motorola wouldn't let them license the patents, said "you have to buy the whole thing". Google said "ok". Do you see how they're trying to get your emotions fussed up with inflammatory language? "alienating tier one" "don't have the spine" etc.

2. Microsoft extracting licensing fees from these same handset makers in the form of IP indemnification and
This is the only one based on a shred of fact and though. But it's $5 per handset, so it's as if the Bill of Materials for the phone is no longer $200, it's $205. Not a huge deal, especially if Microsoft leverages these patent fees equivalently across the manufacturers.

3. Amazon shipping a wildly successful, yet unidentifiable, version of an old Android build over the holiday... and making it a wild success.
This one is just stupid. This definitely works more FOR android than it does against it.

The whole article is a lot like something many of us would come up with if we were trying to get people aggravated and generate discussion. The reason you won't find many intelligent people that read CNN is because of articles like this. The ones that still do don't see the smoke and mirrors game that they're falling into.
 
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dwell

pics?
Oct 9, 1999
5,185
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I doubt that the first part will hold true. Those numbers are the result of a new iPhone, Apple offering a $0 with contract phone, and Android sales generally being low during this quarter.

Keep in mind that the numbers in that graph are for US only. Globally there's other things to consider, like the iPhone launching in China, etc.

And why would Android be low for the quarter? There was a number of high-profile Android launches at that time.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
1
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Amazon "cultivates" it's app store, it's safer.

Only for the incredibly ignorant, and those people don't care about safety in the first place.

Apps on the Amazon app store get updates far slower than the Market assuming they even get them at all. No one is using the App store for it's superior safety, the use it because they want free stuff.
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
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How is it a fork when apps bought on the Amazon App store work equally well for both Amazon's Fire and other Android devices?

"Forking" the OS means it

1.) Doesn't use Google apps or market
2.) Doesn't have Google's permission to use Google's apps or market

It's a pretty simple definition, approved by Google to use GAPPS and Google marketplace or not.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
1
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"Forking" the OS means it

1.) Doesn't use Google apps or market
2.) Doesn't have Google's permission to use Google's apps or market

It's a pretty simple definition, approved by Google to use GAPPS and Google marketplace or not.

That's not consistent with the normal definition of forking an OS, using that standard a pure AOSP build would be a fork of Android which it clearly is not.

Normally forking an OS implies taking the existing OS and from that point on developing it independently of the original version.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,496
7,752
136
How is it a fork when apps bought on the Amazon App store work equally well for both Amazon's Fire and other Android devices?

It really remains to be seen where Amazon goes from here. Right now they haven't really forked Android in the traditional sense of the word, but they can easily do so moving forward. Because Honeycomb was closed source, Amazon needed to use and heavily customize an older version of Android. However, right now their version of Android is really just another re-skin.

In some ways, Amazon shouldn't deviate from mainline Android. They have an app store that they want to use to sell apps to consumers, many of whom do not own an Amazon device. On the other hand, they've probably got 50% of the Android tablet market at this point and could aim at owning that market space. If that's the case they can make their own custom modifications to Android and get the third party manufacturers on board.

The main issue is that the Android phone market and the Android tablet market are completely different and Amazon is in an interesting position regarding those markets. They can play passively or they can go for the throat. Either choice makes sense from a certain point of view.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
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Am almost tempted to buy the Artix 2 at Amazon. Its very powerful, nice big screen, and reasonably priced compared to many other high end Android phones right now.
I dont even need service with it. Could just keep it as a PDA.
 
Dec 30, 2004
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Am almost tempted to buy the Artix 2 at Amazon. Its very powerful, nice big screen, and reasonably priced compared to many other high end Android phones right now.
I dont even need service with it. Could just keep it as a PDA.

check craigslist for the atrix4g, I got mine for $190 and 2 days later saw one for $150. Still dual core and 1GB RAM...definitely a lot of power.