Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[Aapje]

More of the same nonsense. It's not actually a 4050.

If you look at the chip size compared to the full 102, then it is at best a x050-class chip. We are talking 146 mm² for the 4060 vs 276 mm² for the 3060 and 200 mm² for the 3050. These are just cold hard facts, so your denial is really strange.

The 4090 shows what kind of performance improvement you get when they don't put a lower tier chip on the cards. Whether it's 55% or 64% doesn't really matter to the argument, it is more than double the improvement you are actually getting.

 

[jpiniero]

If you look at the chip size compared to the full 102, then it is at best a x050-class chip. We are talking 146 mm² for the 4060 vs 276 mm² for the 3060 and 200 mm² for the 3050. These are just cold hard facts, so your denial is really strange.

Which is how they are coping with TSMC's prices.

 

[MrTeal]

118 / 72 = 1.63888888 or 64% more performance for 6.7% more money ($1,500 vs $1,600) this is from the XTX Taichi White review which is the latest TPU review so will be the most upto date.

EDIT: If the 55% is coming from launch reviews then lots of places were a bit CPU limited at 4K with the 4090 which does show how much of a beast it is.

Sure, fair enough. The contention wasn't so much the exact percentage of improvement, it's comparing it to the MRSP of the 3090 Ti which was always a joke. The real comparison for the 4090 is the 3090, not the ridiculous pricing on the 3090 Ti.

 

[Aapje]

For the 4060, it's actually the positive standout of this generation, because it gets a 20% performance bump, and a price cut.

And 4 GB less memory, which actually matters more now than before.

It's hard to take you seriously when you start leaving out a major downgrade, to make it look better.

So for someone interested in more affordable cards, the 4060 is the standout of this generation.

This is almost laughable when we don't even have new low end cards from AMD yet and nevertheless the 6650 XT is already a better deal. I can get one for 270 euros over here and the 4060 would cost at least 350. They should perform very similarly.

If AMD doesn't mess up, but we know they will, they can counter with a 7600 that is cheaper to make than the 6650 XT and thus can be sold for very similar prices to the 6650 XT. But like usual, their initial excessive prices will go down so it is far too early to call the 4060 the least sad low end card. That you are already declaring a winner just contributes to the very one-sided story you are telling here.

 

[Dribble]

At $300 with enough performance and all the features, and the Nvidia branding the 4060 is gonna sell plenty ... unless AMD decide to undercut them, but they probably won't as they just don't seem that keen on a real fight for market share.

 

[Aapje]

At $300 with enough performance and all the features, and the Nvidia branding the 4060 is gonna sell plenty ... unless AMD decide to undercut them, but they probably won't as they just don't seem that keen on a real fight for market share.

It's probably going to be the most popular card, but I doubt that it will have comparable sales number to the 1060, 2060 and 3060, as I think that many more people will skip this generation entirely.

 

[Heartbreaker]

At $300 with enough performance and all the features, and the Nvidia branding the 4060 is gonna sell plenty ... unless AMD decide to undercut them, but they probably won't as they just don't seem that keen on a real fight for market share.

Realistically how much can AMD cut, and how much would it matter? So far the RTX 4000 cards are selling for US price plus currency conversion in Canada, that would make the 4060, $405 CAD.

Right now in Canada, the least expensive AMD 6650 XTs on my Amazon Wishlist is $408 CAD, and the RX 7600 that appeared early at a Canadian retailer was more than that. At equal pricing, I don't think AMD has a chance.

Even if they knocked $50 CAD off, I would still get the 4060 for the extra features (DLSS, Tensor cores), and I bet most other people would too.

If they knocked $100 CAD off, then I would consider a 7600, but I think the odds of that are essentially ZERO.

 

[Aapje]

Realistically how much can AMD cut, and how much would it matter?

Navi 33 should be a little cheaper to make than Navi 23 and they are selling the latter for 209 USD at Newegg as the 6600. So realistically, they should be able to cut at least that much.

Of course they won't, at least at first, but there's plenty of room to go down to a level where Nvidia won't follow and where there's plenty of sales.

Even if they knocked $50 off, I would still get the 4060 for the extra features (DLSS, Tensor cores).

What are you going to use the tensor cores for?

Anyway, there's a good chance that the premium is going to be excessive, like has been true so often in the past, so you can get a lot of 'real' FPS for the money you save by giving up the Nvidia features.

 

[Heartbreaker]

What are you going to use the tensor cores for?

Stable Diffusion, and AI video scaling for now. Deep learning is kind of exploding right now, so more end user stuff will likely crop up in the future.

 

[MrTeal]

Realistically how much can AMD cut, and how much would it matter? So far the RTX 4000 cards are selling for US price plus currency conversion in Canada, that would make the 4060, $405 CAD.

Right now in Canada, the least expensive AMD 6650 XTs on my Amazon Wishlist is $408 CAD, and the RX 7600 that appeared early at a Canadian retailer was more than that. At equal pricing, I don't think AMD has a chance.

Even if they knocked $50 CAD off, I would still get the 4060 for the extra features (DLSS, Tensor cores), and I bet most other people would too.

If they knocked $100 CAD off, then I would consider a 7600, but I think the odds of that are essentially ZERO.

Canada Computers has a 6650 XT for CAD370 with free shipping and Newegg has one for $380 with FS.
The 7600 will almost certainly be well over that, but I wouldn't put too much faith in the PCCanada listing for general pricing. They're a strange retailer not really consumer focused and tend to be either be way out to lunch on pricing or posting stupid price errors that they then don't honour.

It'll certainly be cheaper than the 6600 XT's US$380 launch and will improve perf/$ vs N23's launch prices, but I'd be shocked if it actually gave better performance per dollar than the sub CAD380/US$260 6650 XT options out there.

 

[Aapje]

Stable Diffusion, and AI video scaling for now. Deep learning is kind of exploding right now, so more end user stuff will likely crop up in the future.

VRAM is really important for Stable Diffusion, so I'd definitely get the 16 GB 4060 Ti if you want to do that.

 

[In2Photos]

For the 4060, it's actually the positive standout of this generation, because it gets a 20% performance bump, and a price cut.

I'm pretty happy with the 4060, and will likely get one, if the AIB pricing holds to MSRP.

The thing is, people that are used to getting 30-40% per generation are not going to be buying each generation anymore. They are going to skip a generation to see that kind of performance increase they were used to getting. So cards aren't going to sell like they did before.

Do you see gobs of 3080 owners buying 4080s?
Do you see gobs of 3070 owners buying 4070s?
Do you anticipate gobs of 3060 owners buying 4060s?

I believe that answer to be no for all 3. Still seeing people say they have no plans to upgrade from their 1080s and 1070s because of the lackluster gains for the money and those people would see ~100% increase in fps over their existing cards (assuming no CPU bottleneck).

 

[DAPUNISHER]

The Sapphire Pulse 6700 is $280 U.S. on Newegg. Amazon has the XFX for $290. The 6600XT&6650XT are bad values at present pricing. 7600 8GB is going to be DOA even at $250. 8GB and not a single big feature change on par with what Nvidia can offer gen over gen. The extra frame buffer on the 6700 alone, is the best feature of any sub $300 AMD GPU.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The thing is, people that are used to getting 30-40% per generation are not going to be buying each generation anymore. They are going to skip a generation to see that kind of performance increase they were used to getting. So cards aren't going to sell like they did before.

Do you see gobs of 3080 owners buying 4080s?
Do you see gobs of 3070 owners buying 4070s?
Do you anticipate gobs of 3060 owners buying 4060s?

I believe that answer to be no for all 3. Still seeing people say they have no plans to upgrade from their 1080s and 1070s because of the lackluster gains for the money and those people would see ~100% increase in fps over their existing cards (assuming no CPU bottleneck).

The thing is, the people who buy each generation are a tiny fringe. Not the norm.

Most normal people aren't even buying every second generation.

All my close nerd friends (myself included) buy a GPU and basically keep it until it's essentially unusable.

 

[Heartbreaker]

VRAM is really important for Stable Diffusion, so I'd definitely get the 16 GB 4060 Ti if you want to do that.

8GB will limit me to 512x512 which is big enough for me.

 

[Timorous]

The Sapphire Pulse 6700 is $280 U.S. on Newegg. Amazon has the XFX for $290. The 6600XT&6650XT are bad values at present pricing. 7600 8GB is going to be DOA even at $250. 8GB and not a single big feature change on par with what Nvidia can offer gen over gen. The extra frame buffer on the 6700 alone, is the best feature of any sub $300 AMD GPU.

This.

I think at $249 the 7600 can work but for any more the 6700 is obviously the way to go.

7600XT needs to be cut N32 imo. Even a 16GB N33 variant with higher clocks will not be worth while. At least a cut N32 could match the 6750XT.

 

[In2Photos]

The thing is, the people who buy each generation are a tiny fringe. Not the norm.

Most normal people aren't even buying every second generation.

All my close nerd friends (myself included) buy a GPU and basically keep it until it's essentially unusable.

So if people that buy each generation aren't buying them, and "most normal people" aren't buying them, and all of your close nerd friends aren't buying them, then who the hell is going to buy them?

 

[Aapje]

The thing is, the people who buy each generation are a tiny fringe. Not the norm.

Most normal people aren't even buying every second generation.

All my close nerd friends (myself included) buy a GPU and basically keep it until it's essentially unusable.

It's a classic mistake to think that your own bubble reflects reality. There are plenty of people who upgrade every generation. Not a majority, but they are the GPU makers' best customers.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

This.

I think at $249 the 7600 can work

Outside of a vanishingly small and loyal AMD customer base, I just don't see it. If I am settling for an 8GB card, I'd pay the extra $50 or so and get the 4060 with the superior Nvidia software suite. The only way AMD can sell me a card is to offer me more vram for less money. As turning down textures is the most unacceptable of all visual compromises IMO. That's how you win my biz, and the reason I bought a 6800. There was nothing close in price with as much performance and vram. Acer A770 almost got my money, but I didn't want to tweak my main gamer that much. I will grab one still, when it hits my $300 target.

EDIT: 6800XT was only $50 more, but the extra power use was more than I was willing to deal with.

 

[Heartbreaker]

So if people that buy each generation aren't buying them, and "most normal people" aren't buying them, and all of your close nerd friends aren't buying them, then who the hell is going to buy them?

People with cards that are several generations old, as has always been the case.

Whether the sub 1% that used to buy cards every generation keep doing that or not is kind of irrelevant, since they are such a tiny minority of buyers that appeasing them has NEVER been a priority, and has never moved the needle on sales enough to matter.

 

[In2Photos]

It's a classic mistake to think that your own bubble reflects reality. There are plenty of people who upgrade every generation. Not a majority, but they are the GPU makers' best customers.

He probably got all those numbers from the Steam survey.

 

[In2Photos]

People with cards that are several generations old, as has always been the case.

Whether the sub 1% that used to buy cards every generation keep doing that or not is kind of irrelevant, since they are such a tiny minority of buyers that appeasing them has NEVER been a priority, and has never moved the needle on sales enough to matter.

Apparently you don't remember all those people that sold their 2070s, 2080s and 2080Tis for Ampere cards and then couldn't get them.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Apparently you don't remember all those people that sold their 2070s, 2080s and 2080Tis for Ampere cards and then couldn't get them.

I never said it was ZERO.

But you can't equate GPU fanatics, who spend their days on GPU forums excited for the next GPU, with normal people.

 

[Ranulf]

Realistically how much can AMD cut, and how much would it matter? So far the RTX 4000 cards are selling for US price plus currency conversion in Canada, that would make the 4060, $405 CAD.

Right now in Canada, the least expensive AMD 6650 XTs on my Amazon Wishlist is $408 CAD, and the RX 7600 that appeared early at a Canadian retailer was more than that. At equal pricing, I don't think AMD has a chance.

Even if they knocked $50 CAD off, I would still get the 4060 for the extra features (DLSS, Tensor cores), and I bet most other people would too.

If they knocked $100 CAD off, then I would consider a 7600, but I think the odds of that are essentially ZERO.

If I recall correctly, the Canadian market is higher than normal because a lot of retailers were forced to import cards at higher prices in the last 6-12 months, on top of currency rates that might explain the higher prices.

 

[Saylick]

Apparently you don't remember all those people that sold their 2070s, 2080s and 2080Tis for Ampere cards and then couldn't get them.

I never said it was ZERO.

But you can't equate GPU fanatics, who spend their days on GPU forums excited for the next GPU, with normal people.

Either way, whatever portion of people who used to buy every X generations are likely going to wait longer since Ada doesn't deliver the same perf/$ increase as previous generations. How much of an impact it has on Nvidia's bottom line won't be known until their next two earnings reports.