Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[A///]

Is this true? I would think AIBs would directly buy memory instead from nvidia, so It would be cheaper.

back when the evga backlash happened gn and others who were close with evga shared details of how nvidia operates. nvidia sells kits apparently in the name of making sure it works. nvidia but mostly jensen are anal about extracting max profits and keeping their aib partners down, why would they let a partner buy their own chips from the manufacturer and have higher margins? aibs make good money on other high margin components. or their rd and bom stay almsot the same but they raise their prices every chipset generation like jesus is coming back to life. that's how you get 300 midrange boards with entry enthusiast in the 500 range.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Videocardz

Looks like there won't be a difference in specs between 8 or 16GB.

This performance without Frame gen looks RTX 3070 at most or a bit behind.
Full AD106 would provide a bit of boost to performance, why they released only a cut version even for 16GB is a mystery to me. With such a small chip, there shouldn't be a lot of faulty chips. $499 is too much, even If It has 16GB Vram.

This one shows a bigger increase, price will be the same as RTX 3060 -> $329.

 

[A///]

only difference is the larger vram which may be useful in some games or people who work in 3d on a budget. I was talking about best buy earlier which is an american chain of general tech stores. I'd forgot that i looked up whether they were in the middle of a bk but as it turns out they're closing stores due to year over year decline in instore sales and pushign towards online sales. this isn't important other than you could only get an fe through them in the us but nvidia began selling fes all last week and the week before. now it'll be interesting if you can grab an fe online without much trouble even though some of the aib cards are better but the fe card is the least garish one.

 

[Aapje]

This performance without Frame gen looks RTX 3070 at most or a bit behind.

That's really bad. I was hoping for at least 3070 Ti performance. With this small improvement, if they had kept the same price and given it 16 GB, it would at least have been a decent improvement over last gen. It's pretty telling that they are including the 2060 Super in the graphs, effectively claiming the performance improvements of the 2060 Super over earlier gens as a win for the 4050, sorry 4060 Ti.

As it is, the message is: we know that you are desperate for more RAM, so we don't actually have to give you any better performance for the price, but we'll just extort you for that extra 8 GB. Shameful and abusive.

Full AD106 would provide a bit of boost to performance, why they released only a cut version even for 16GB is a mystery to me. With such a small chip, there shouldn't be a lot of faulty chips. $499 is too much, even If It has 16GB Vram.

They probably worried that the really poor 4060 Ti 8 GB wouldn't sell if it is also slower than the 16 GB version, but as it is, I think that both now look very unappetizing.

I'm pretty confident that this is going to be another failed launch, with the product having to be discounted for it to sell in decent numbers.

 

[jpiniero]

Full AD106 would provide a bit of boost to performance, why they released only a cut version even for 16GB is a mystery to me. With such a small chip, there shouldn't be a lot of faulty chips. $499 is too much, even If It has 16GB Vram.

There's no other product using AD106 (other than 4070L which uses the full), so something had to use up the cut dies that are out there. They could have made the clamshell have the full configuration but since it was likely not originally planned they just didn't bother.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm pretty confident that this is going to be another failed launch, with the product having to be discounted for it to sell in decent numbers.

There's always OEM desktops.

 

[Heartbreaker]

This one shows a bigger increase, price will be the same as RTX 3060 -> $329.

That is strange. Because on the specs, like Shader Flops, 4060 Ti is ~38% more than 3060 Ti, but 4060 is only about ~16% more than 3060. So you would expect gaming performance to be a bigger jump on the 4060 Ti than on the 4060 relative to the previous generation.

4060 Ti seems to be underperforming it's specs, as both sets of graphs look like they are only getting about 15% gaming gains.

 

[Heartbreaker]

There's always OEM desktops.

There will of course be OEM sales which are likely almost always the biggest source of sales except for top end cards, and maybe even there.

But as much as people like to claim the 4000 series has failed. Other than failing to sell out. They are selling as well, if not better than other GPUs. The market is just down across the board for economic reasons.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

That is strange. Because on the specs, like Shader Flops, 4060 Ti is ~38% more than 3060 Ti, but 4060 is only about ~16% more than 3060. So you would expect gaming performance to be a bigger jump on the 4060 Ti than on the 4060 relative to the previous generation.

4060 Ti seems to be underperforming it's specs, as both sets of graphs look like they are only getting about 15% gaming gains.

Of course we will have to wait for reviews to be sure, but It looks like BW is not enough. Memory controller+L2 provides 554 GB/s vs 448 GB/s, that's only 24% difference. It has 48ROPs vs 80ROPs in 3060Ti which is a deficit even with the much higher clockspeed.
4060Ti has only 22% higher effective BW than RTX 4060.

 

[jpiniero]

Of note, only the 4060 Ti graph has what the settings are (says 1080p Max). I'm guessing that the 4060 Ti 8 GB and 4060 graphs are pretty obviously not 1080p Max.

 

[Aapje]

There's always OEM desktops.

That assumes that OEM sales won't crash due to the poor value of these cards.

 

[Aapje]

Of course we will have to wait for reviews to be sure, but It looks like BW is not enough. Memory controller+L2 provides 554 GB/s vs 448 GB/s, that's only 24% difference. It has 48ROPs vs 80ROPs in 3060Ti which is a deficit even with the much higher clockspeed.
4060Ti has only 22% higher effective BW than RTX 4060.

This generation is screaming out for Super-refreshes.

I fully expect Nvidia to do that, so we might not need to wait for the 5000-series for some substantial improvements.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

This generation is screaming out for Super-refreshes.

I fully expect Nvidia to do that, so we might not need to wait for the 5000-series for some substantial improvements.

From those specs you can't expect a significant improvement.
The biggest improvement will be naturally AD102. AD104, AD107 is already maxed out and only clocks could be increased.
AD103 and AD106 are a cutdown version, but not that much, but 10% should be possible with increased clocks.

 

[Aapje]

From those specs you can't expect a significant improvement.
The biggest improvement will be naturally AD102. AD104, AD107 is already maxed out and only clocks could be increased.
AD103 and AD106 are a cutdown version, but not that much, but 10% should be possible with increased clocks.

They can just use a better chip. They are already using excessively small chips per tier, so it's not unreasonable for them to switch that up.

For Ampere, they are also making quite a few cards with a bigger chip, although there they actually cut them up to the size of the smaller chip. But they don't have to do that.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Arstechnica is saying $299 for the 4060. Plus they have NVidia slides that say:

4060 Ti is 15% faster than 3060 Ti.
4060 is 20% faster than 3060.

That really makes 4060 look reasonable. A price cut along with a better performance boost.

Nvidia introduces $399 RTX 4060 Ti and $299 4060 without introducing a price hike.

8GB 4060 Ti launches May 24; $499 16GB version and 4060 follow in July.

arstechnica.com

 

[Aapje]

Arstechnica is saying $299 for the 4060. [/URL]

Hardware Unboxed says the same, where apparently they've been told this by Nvidia.

A price drop plus a bigger improvement certainly makes this more attractive than the 4060 Ti DOA edition.

 

[MrTeal]

That 4060 Ti 16GB chart looks terrible considering it costs 20% more than the 3060 Ti did at launch, and the performance increase is less than that.

Marketing the 16GB is going to be a nightmare for them though, since you're paying 20% more for a card with the exact same specs outside the memory. If they don't show results where 8GB is running out of space those bars will look the same, but if they do the 4060 Ti will look like absolute dog poop.

 

[Heartbreaker]

That 4060 Ti 16GB chart looks terrible considering it costs 20% more than the 3060 Ti did at launch, and the performance increase is less than that.

Marketing the 16GB is going to be a nightmare for them though, since you're paying 20% more for a card with the exact same specs outside the memory. If they don't show results where 8GB is running out of space those bars will look the same, but if they do the 4060 Ti will look like absolute dog poop.

I don't think they are that concerned with sales for it. NVidia will only be building 8GB FE edition. Partners can build the 16GB if they feel like it. IMO, it's just their for the vocal minority that complain about VRAM.

Most people would probably just get the 8GB version and turn down a setting or two when needed.

Though I think the $299 4060 is the real winner here. 8GB is reasonable at this price point.

 

[MrTeal]

Yeah, the 4060 will be the real volume product. ~3060 Ti performance for $100 less, and the 3060 Ti was one of the best values in the Ampere stack.

 

[Timorous]

A 4060 that is 20% faster than the 3060 will be around 3060Ti tier give or take. Except when it is VRAM limited. I would not be at all surprised to see scenarios where the 3060 is faster at 1440p or even 1080p in some games. The 3060 already beats the 3070Ti sometimes.

The 4060Ti looks like it will match the 3070. The 16GB variant could have been good if they had priced that at $399. Same performance as the 3070, twice the VRAM and $100 less would be a good combo but at $499 it is too expensive and $399 for an 8GB card is a bit DOA imo.

7600 based on the rumoured specs and clockspeeds will probably trade blows with the 4060 which means that will need to be $250 at most imo which is about what this 4060 should cost.

Ideally the lineup would be 4060 $249, 4060Ti 8GB $329 and 4060Ti 16GB $399. As is typical this gen everything is a step too expensive.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Ideally the lineup would be 4060 $249, 4060Ti 8GB $329 and 4060Ti 16GB $399. As is typical this gen everything is a step too expensive.

You mean in a pure fantasy world.

 

[Timorous]

You mean in a pure fantasy world.

AD107 is 146mm^2 and AD106 is 190mm^2. With the TDP and just 4 (8 for the 16GB variant) ram chips as well the BOM costs are tiny.

 

[gdansk]

$500 for a 16GB CUDA-capable card? It will sell well despite gaming performance. Relative to other GPUs this generation, but still a drop from last generation.

 

[Heartbreaker]

AD107 is 146mm^2 and AD106 is 190mm^2. With the TDP and just 4 (8 for the 16GB variant) ram chips as well the BOM costs are tiny.

You haven't got a flipping clue what it costs to build anything.

If NVidia was as vastly overpricing cards as some of you think, AMD would be able to sell it's card for half the price with healthy profits. So naturally the RX 7600 will be $150, or $200 tops right?

 

[Timorous]

You haven't got a flipping clue what it costs to build anything.

If NVidia was as vastly overpricing cards as some of you think, AMD would be able to sell it's card for half the price with healthy profits. So naturally the RX 7600 will be $150, or $200 tops right?

I would not be surprised if the BOM of a 4060 was less than the 7600. The silicon might cost a tad more due to wafer costs but the lower TDP will mean NV can save on the heatsink so I bet that is a rough wash.

As such a $249 is still going to be very profitable for AMD / NV for this kind of product.