50 Years of Failed Climate Change Predictions

[[DHT]Osiris]

So when do you plan to do something serious that will actually help, like basically jettison the poors? Tens of millions here and billions globally that we expend carbon emissions on and basically just sit around and exist like sea sponges. Just liquidate them and save the world from warming.

Sorry, do you mean to say that your solution is to reduce the total population rather than per-capita energy usage? Not entirely disagreeing with you, just trying to narrow down on your approach.

Would your solution include killing off Americans? We're the highest per-capita users after all.

I’ve said it before but there are no fundamental scientific breakthroughs required to reach carbon neutral.

Everyone is aware of the options for carbon neutral power generation, wind, solar, nuclear, & grid storage. Wind and solar have come down to the point where they are competitive with fossil fuels.

What the denier set still likes to harp on is the misperception that carbon neutral must mean the end of cars, meat, air travel, and international shipping.

For air travel, shipping and places where internal combustion engines are required over battery electric there’s carbon neutral fuels. Bio fuels is one type but both the Navy and industry have demonstrated methods to pull CO2 out of the air and synthesize it into hydrocarbons fuel.

https://www.nrl.navy.mil/news/releases/nrl-seawater-carbon-capture-process-receives-us-patent

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...-dioxide-into-fuels-artificial-photosynthesis

Construction also releases a lot of the worlds CO2. Processing steel and concrete especially. But even here progress has been made.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2019/01/09/boston-metal/amp/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2185217-the-future-with-lower-carbon-concrete/

Heating concrete currently burns a lot of fossil fuels which can be replaced with alternative energy. Processing also releases a lot of CO2 which those companies aim to reduce. Interestingly as concrete cures it’s actually absorbing CO2 and releasing heat.

Even cow farts (actually burps) can be addressed by adding 1% of a type of seaweed to their feed. It cuts down methane production by over 60%.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-eating-seaweed-can-help-cows-to-belch-less-methane

So the doom and gloom coming from @glenn1 and those against doing anything is misplaced.

All though Glenn should be concerned because stopping climate change does require us to take Glenn’s guns (but only his )

My concern with the above is that the current administration in several key areas are ... lacking when it comes to acknowledgement of climate change and addressing the matter. The US is currently trying to curtail environmental improvements, Brazil is on fire, the UK is a hot mess, and most of the other countries (barring a few notable exceptions) are waiting for everyone else to do something. I hope countries 'do things' sooner rather than later but I'm a pessimist.

I'm going with what history has shown, that the liberals cry wolf about the consequences regularly.

Examples?

Let me give you an example. In the OP, there are a few stories from the 80's saying that the Maldives will be wiped out in 30 years. Now, the people that can't consistently accurately forecast the weather 10 days out are telling us what the weather will cause in 30 years? Guess what. They were wrong. There are may more examples just like it in the OP. Go, explore, see for yourself.

Weather isn't climate, dummy.
Also, the projected timeline may have been off, but the results are likely to be the same:

Effects of climate change on small island countries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Maldives are an archipelago of far spread, low-lying islands and atolls located in the Indian Ocean. Climate change is severely threatening the very existence of the Maldives as well as diminishing existing human capabilities on these islands. According to the World Bank, with "future sea levels projected to increase in the range of 10 to 100 centimeters by the year 2100, the entire country could be submerged".[9] Obviously this would seriously impact the culture and livelihood of all the citizens of the Maldives. As the President of the Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, notes "to the three hundred thousand inhabitants of the Maldives none of these threats compare, in magnitude and likelihood, to global climate change and consequent sea level rise." [10] The majority of the population of the Maldives lives on small, flat, densely populated atolls that are threatened by violent storms or even the slightest sea level rise. The capital Malé is especially threatened because it is on a small, flat, extremely densely populated atoll that is surrounded by sea walls, and other barriers to protect against storms. This means the Malé atoll cannot change shape in response to rising sea levels and is increasingly reliant on expensive engineering solutions.[11] To prepare against climate change and the resulting sea level rise, the national government of the Maldives has prepared a comprehensive National Adaptation Programme of Action, that attempts to critically consider and alleviate many of the serious threats the Maldives faces.[10] The Maldives have already implemented several measures to combat sea level rise including building a wall around the capital of Malé and refurbishing local infrastructure, particularly ports. The Maldives is also taking the lead in attempting to arrest global climate change by instituting a goal of achieving a carbon-neutral economy by 2020. According to the former environment minister for the Maldives, Mohamed Aslam, it is a case of "'If Maldives can do it, you can do it. It's important to us not just to talk but to lead by example".[11] In addition, the local economy of the Maldives is greatly threatened by climate change. One example is the tourism sector which is being threatened by the increased likelihood of violent storms, damage to coral reefs, and beach erosion.

 

[Paratus]

Let me give you an example. In the OP, there are a few stories from the 80's saying that the Maldives will be wiped out in 30 years. Now, the people that can't consistently accurately forecast the weather 10 days out are telling us what the weather will cause in 30 years? Guess what. They were wrong. There are may more examples just like it in the OP. Go, explore, see for yourself.

For those who don’t know what Slow is referring to, he’s likely grabbed this talking point almost verbatim from the climate science “skeptics” blog Watt’s Up With That.

The story references an unattributed prediction about the Maldives being under water in 30 years.

The Maladives are still here so ha ha.
(Underlying conclusion insinuated is inexact prediction from unnamed source is “wrong” so all mainstream climate science over the last 30 years can’t be trusted)

On September 26, 1988, experts predicted the 1,196 islands of the Maldives would drown in the next thirty years. That date has passed, and they only missed by 1,196 islands.

Now back in reality the Maldives have spent the last 30 years spending on adaption and are still having flooding issues exacerbated by sea level rise.

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2017/08/maldives-flooding.page

Authors of the paper, published in the journal Natural Hazards, examined wave and sea level data around historic flood events and found that multiple factors contribute to flooding in the Indian Ocean island chain, which has an average land elevation of just one metre.

Wave ‘set up’ – the raising of water levels at the coast caused by breaking waves – was found to be the main cause of flooding. This effect was increased by prolonged swell wave conditions, where large, energetic waves are generated by wind storms thousands of miles away in the Southern Ocean. High astronomical tides, caused mainly by the gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon, were also found to play a part.

In addition, sea levels in the region are rising at a rate of about 4mm a year.

Lead author Dr Matthew Wadey said: “This study gives us a better understanding of flooding in the Maldives. Monitoring waves, sea level and floods is important, but further work is needed to better understand processes that cause flooding in reef environments in the Maldives and other low-lying coasts.”

At least 30 flood events have been recorded in the Maldives over the last 50 years, including major floods in the capital city, Malé.

Flood defences, including sea walls and breakwaters, have reduced the flood risk in the islands, but adaptation is essential to all inhabited islands in the country, the authors warn.

 

[Amused]

The "failed prediction" climate change deniers pass around that I LOVE is the one where scientists predicted, IF NOTHING CHANGES "people in major metropolitan areas will have to wear gas masks."

No, really, climate change deniers pass this one around and laugh at it as if it makes their case...

Having grown up in Los Angeles in the 70s and frequently having the stabbing pain of smog attacks in my chest I know first hand why they predicted this.

You know what made this prediction not come true in the United States? The clean air act, emissions limits and catalytic converters on cars. Something virtually EVERYONE opposed in the 70s.

Today, in Los Angeles, I can ride hundreds of miles on my road bike and never once in the 10 years I've been back have I had that smog attack in my chest. Not once. And there are about 10 million more people in Southern CA now than there was in the 70s.

Guess where they DO, in point of fact, wear gas masks now? China, who has air much like 1970s Los Angeles, but worse.

This thread, and the premise it is based on is a fucking joke. Science denialism is a sign of a weak, stupid mind.

There are some things the free market absolutely CANNOT be trusted to do the right thing with. Pollution, the environment and air quality tops the list.

The change in LA air quality and the absolute dragging, kicking and screaming it required is one of the main things that changed me from being an absolutist on free markets and government regulations.

But Spidey here has a worldview to cling to. So fact MUST be denied to maintain it for he is unable to change it as it is his cult.

 

[Jaskalas]

50 Years of Failed Climate Change Predictions

Noise, with the propaganda value of gaslighting people and detracting from the facts.
This entire topic is a distraction.

Hey @SlowSpyder , do you want to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere or not? If not, why not?

For me it is about the simple facts behind the measured increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, the measured increase in solar energy reaching the ground, the measured increase of energy in the ocean, warming our entire planet. Those things are directly connected. As a result we will face changes, uncertainties, maybe scarcities and conflicts. One devastating and guaranteed change resulting from us warming the planet will be sea level rise. Another is the effect a different climate has on crops and livestock. Our food and water supplies are at great risk from changes.

If you could stop those things from occurring, wouldn't you? I am for stopping it, and thus I am for drastically reducing our CO2 emissions. It would be nice if you would stop !@#$ing around and instead join us in the pursuit of this goal.

 

[Jhhnn]

when the world starts putting big pressure on China and India to clean their shit up then ill pay attention.

I thought part of American exceptionalism was to lead by example.

 

[Paratus]

My concern with the above is that the current administration in several key areas are ... lacking when it comes to acknowledgement of climate change and addressing the matter. The US is currently trying to curtail environmental improvements, Brazil is on fire, the UK is a hot mess, and most of the other countries (barring a few notable exceptions) are waiting for everyone else to do something. I hope countries 'do things' sooner rather than later but I'm a pessimist.

Well yes that’s the issue. My point was it’s possible to mitigate global warming without reducing our quality of living or condemning the third world to remain at subsistence level.

I agree it’s simply a measure of political will which is and has been sorely lacking.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Well yes that’s the issue. My point was it’s possible to mitigate global warming without reducing our quality of living or condemning the third world to remain at subsistence level.

I agree it’s simply a measure of political will which is and has been sorely lacking.

Hopefully the politics gets sidelined when the shit starts to hit the fan, I'm sure worried more about finger-pointing as we've seen in this thread.

I thought part of American exceptionalism was to lead by example.

Not anymore, now it's American exceptionism.

 

[glenn1]

Well yes that’s the issue. My point was it’s possible to mitigate global warming without reducing our quality of living or condemning the third world to remain at subsistence level.

I agree it’s simply a measure of political will which is and has been sorely lacking.

Oh yes if we just profess Jesus renewable energy as our lord and savior we'll be saved. We can do it all without reducing our quality of living and aren't just because - I dunno, because a majority of Americans are just mind controlled by Exxon and have a secret death wish?

 

[zinfamous]

slowspyder: literally spreading all of the actual fake news that he can find, while labeling everything legitimate, that is only ever aligned against his ideology, as fake.

fuck off, you refusing-to-flush Russian turd.

 

[Paratus]

Oh yes if we just profess Jesus renewable energy as our lord and savior we'll be saved. We can do it all without reducing our quality of living and aren't just because - I dunno, because a majority of Americans are just mind controlled by Exxon and have a secret death wish?

What an amazing counter argument. You’ve sure given me something to think about.

 

[zinfamous]

That they may be. That being said, all they did here was compile a lengthy list of incorrect climate change predictions over the years.

translation:

"it's possible this is all highly biased fake bullshit, but...."

seriously, shut the fuck up you useless twat.

 

[SlowSpyder]

translation:

"it's possible this is all highly biased fake bullshit, but...."

seriously, shut the fuck up you useless twat.

I'm not sure I've ever seen you post anything but insults? What is wrong with you?

 

[ivwshane]

I'm not sure I've ever seen you post anything but insults? What is wrong with you?

And all we've ever seen from you is propaganda. The question isn't what's wrong with him but what's wrong with you?

 

[glenn1]

What an amazing counter argument. You’ve sure given me something to think about.

So given it's an existential crisis and @Paratus said it won't cost us any money, what's your theory behind why we're not doing it? Even if you believe in the U.S. that Republicans are evil sith lords and just opposing all efforts because they want to see people die, why is pretty much every other country not embarking on Manhattan Project level efforts to stop climate change? Just too busy?

 

[fskimospy]

So given it's an existential crisis and @Paratus said it won't cost us any money, what's your theory behind why we're not doing it? Even if you believe in the U.S. that Republicans are evil sith lords and just opposing all efforts because they want to see people die, why is pretty much every other country not embarking on Manhattan Project level efforts to stop climate change? Just too busy?

Just because it will be better for society as a whole doesn't mean it will be better for the people with the most money and power.

For example the Fed has a dual mandate to maximize employment and minimize inflation. It consistently errs on the side of minimizing inflation despite the fact that both are supposed to be equally important. Do you think this is because the Fed is run by Sith Lords who want to punish the population, or do you think this is because the views of creditors (rich people hurt by modestly higher inflation) are better represented than those of debtors (poor people helped by modestly higher inflation)?

 

[nakedfrog]

This thread, and the premise it is based on is a fucking joke. Science denialism is a sign of a weak, stupid mind.

So what you're saying is that it's like nearly every other thread by the OP...

 

[dank69]

So given it's an existential crisis and @Paratus said it won't cost us any money, what's your theory behind why we're not doing it? Even if you believe in the U.S. that Republicans are evil sith lords and just opposing all efforts because they want to see people die, why is pretty much every other country not embarking on Manhattan Project level efforts to stop climate change? Just too busy?

What do you mean believe? We are watching them do exactly that in real time. Now we can debate about whether the reason they do this is because they are malicious, stupid, or both, but does it matter? The underlying motivation doesn't change the fact that they are opposing these efforts and pumping propaganda against these efforts 24/7.

 

[Paratus]

So given it's an existential crisis and @Paratus said it won't cost us any money, what's your theory behind why we're not doing it? Even if you believe in the U.S. that Republicans are evil sith lords and just opposing all efforts because they want to see people die, why is pretty much every other country not embarking on Manhattan Project level efforts to stop climate change? Just too busy?

Stop putting words in my mouth. I said there was no technical breakthrough required. No Manhattan project needed.

I said there was political will required.

My theory on why? Bullshit politics paid for by those with the most to lose if energy production changes.

Now you. What’s your problem with CO2 reduction technology specifically?

 

[ElFenix]

So when do you plan to do something serious that will actually help, like basically jettison the poors? Tens of millions here and billions globally that we expend carbon emissions on and basically just sit around and exist like sea sponges. Just liquidate them and save the world from warming.

first we round up all the deniers, and those who've known and been in position to make actual systemic change but resisted because they'd rather make money by burning fossil fuels.

 

[SlowSpyder]

first we round up all the deniers, and those who've known and been in position to make actual systemic change but resisted because they'd rather make money by burning fossil fuels.

Should we round up all the people that are examples in the article in the OP that cried wolf and lied / were wrong about the consequences of man's actions?

 

[ElFenix]

Should we round up all the people that are examples in the article in the OP that cried wolf and lied / were wrong about the consequences of man's actions?

no because they've accomplished no harm. not to mention the examples are largely shit.

 

[Jhhnn]

Climate change deniers are muy ignorante. Life itself changed the Earth's atmosphere & climate over hundreds of millions of years by turning CO2 into coal & complex hydrocarbons like oil & gas that have been sequestered in the earth. The notion that we can turn much of that back into CO2 in a geological blink of an eye while having no effect is absurd. Dumb as fuck.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

@SlowSpyder is the climate changing or not changing
If you agree it is changing should we do something about it or not do something about it

Hasn't the climate always been changing? Why yes - yes it has lol.


I don't know why you lefties were somehow convinced to call it "climate change" instead of global warming.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

first we round up all the deniers, and those who've known and been in position to make actual systemic change but resisted because they'd rather make money by burning fossil fuels.

How about all the typical lefties that love their "Do as I say, not as I do" narrative?

God forbid they switch to riding public transit, ride a bike to work, carpool with friends/coworkers etc.. etc...

Nope - They are absolutely 100% stuck driving their mid-size SUV everywhere. I HAVE TO! I DONT HAVE A CHOICE!

It's kind of hard for big oil to succeed if you *wait for it*... actually do something about it instead of just complaining.

 

[ElFenix]

systemic problems require systemic solutions, which have been stymied at all turns by big oil and their allies in the republican party and conservative media, in particular, who succeeded in gaslighting the public into thinking a) global warming isn't a thing; b) if it is a thing, it's not man's fault; c) if it is man's fault, it's the responsibility of the individual, rather than society at large.

but you just keep on blaming the powerless and the victims, @s0me0nesmind1