$35,000 Tesla Model III Is Coming In 2017

[Kaido]

The Y is growing on me:

 

[ponyo]

Couple of changes overnight.

1. Model 3 SR+ price increased by another $500 to now $$39,490. The stated range increased from 240 miles to now 250 miles.
2. Model 3 Performance price increased by another $1,000 to now $56,990. The 20" Performance wheel color is now gray instead of silver.
3. Black color paint priced increased by $250 from $750 to $1,000.
4. The expected delivery time for M3P is now 8-10 weeks for M3P. I think it used to 2-3 weeks. The expected delivery times for SR+ and Dual Motor also increased to 6-10 weeks. It used to be 2-3 weeks as well.
5. Order deposit payment changed from $2,500 fully refundable to $100 non refundable. If we estimate ~2% CC vendor processing fees paid by Tesla, this move will save Tesla around $48 per every delivery or like $5 million a quarter at current 100k vehicles sales. This is pretty big savings for Tesla if you know about the game of pennies Musk talked about in regards to trying to find places to cut vehicle build costs.

Current orders for the SR+ and M3P must be really strong so Tesla is trying to take advantage and directing people to order more Dual Motor configuration. This is like the second time SR+ and M3P prices increased in the last couple months. SR+ is now around $1,250 more expensive and M3P now $2,000 more expensive than like 2-3 months ago. Dual Motor does look to be the sweet spot right now when buying.

I think this is shrewd move on part of Tesla to increase the price if the current demand is outpacing their available supply/production. And by increasing the prices now, they have room to drop the prices in 2020 Q1 after the remaining $1,850 tax credits expire. Q1 is always the toughest quarter for any auto company. Tesla can now use the price drop in Q1 next year as additional demand lever.

Oh I forgot about Full Self Driving (FSD) price increasing by another $1,000 on November 1. That will make FSD option $7,000. I would personally pass on the FSD option right now. I didn't think it was worth the money when it was $6k or even when it was $5k. I think the included Autopilot is good enough and if and when FSD is good enough, just pay the whatever the asking price is then. If FSD option is $20k, then pay that. Fully working FSD will be invaluable and worth whatever Tesla charges. FSD at current state is not worth anything near $7k asking price.

And I think we can finally put to rest the $TSLAQ FUD and clueless analysts false narratives about falling or no demand for Tesla cars. We had that one blip in '19 Q1 because of halving of the Fed tax credit and major logistic challenges/issues with Tesla starting their first international Model 3 deliveries. '19 Q2 all time high record deliveries proved that was Q1 was one time blip. '19 Q3 was another all time record high deliveries, and we should get the official confirmation during Q3 earnings call Wednesday next week. And judging by the current quote order delivery times, '19 Q4 is shaping up to be yet another all time high record high deliveries. That will be 3 consecutive quarters of all time high record deliveries. That's pretty amazing for a company with supposed no demand. As more and more Tesla Model 3 cars are delivered each quarter, more and more families, friends, coworkers, and strangers are being introduced to Tesla and EV. Pretty soon, $TSLAQ FUD and dishonest analysts won't be able to stop Tesla and the EV revolution.

 

[bigi]

^of course. Tesla is going to kick so much ass that 80% of automobile manufacturers will be 'Kodaks' of the future.

This is only the tip of iceberg.

 

[JEDI]

 

[ponyo]

This is interesting. This is the first time I've seen anything like this. I just searched on Tesla website for existing inventory of new Model 3, S, and X. There's not a single new Tesla car in stock anywhere near me. I searched 200 miles out and nothing. There might not be a single new Model 3 in inventory anywhere in the US. Tesla is literally selling every car they make as fast as they can make it.

And these moron analysts said Tesla had demand problem.

 

[Kaido]

This is interesting. This is the first time I've seen anything like this. I just searched on Tesla website for existing inventory of new Model 3, S, and X. There's not a single new Tesla car in stock anywhere near me. I searched 200 miles out and nothing. There might not be a single new Model 3 in inventory in anywhere in the US. Tesla is literally selling every car they make as fast as they can make it.

And these moron analysts said Tesla had demand problem.

It's funny because I've been talking about it with one of my customers for awhile now & he finally decided to get one...there was like, a single Model 3 in stock within 200 miles of him. And it didn't have the interior or exterior color he wanted. Plus estimated delivery on new models is 5 to 9 WEEKS now! And all this with zero advertising!

 

[bigi]

^Tesla currently under serves the US market due to exporting most to EU, China and Australia.

 

[NutBucket]

^of course. Tesla is going to kick so much ass that 80% of automobile manufacturers will be 'Kodaks' of the future.

This is only the tip of iceberg.

Don't get ahead of yourself. The first rule of consumerism is marketing. Tesla isn't for everyone. Is it the "best" electric car? Arguably yes. But the design is bland, the cars all look the same and the "SUVs" really aren't roomy enough for more than 4 people. More importantly it's going to take a long time to convince the average person electric is superior to gas and worth the extra cost/hassle.

There's some cool factor but let's face it, a huge group of people buy cars based on styling followed by brand perception.

 

[bigi]

Don't get ahead of yourself. The first rule of consumerism is marketing. Tesla isn't for everyone. Is it the "best" electric car? Arguably yes. But the design is bland, the cars all look the same and the "SUVs" really aren't roomy enough for more than 4 people. More importantly it's going to take a long time to convince the average person electric is superior to gas and worth the extra cost/hassle.

There's some cool factor but let's face it, a huge group of people buy cars based on styling followed by brand perception.

For starters, there isn't much else from anybody else out there.
Besides the cheap talk, nobody is scaling up at any meaningful level.
There are ~2 billion cars to replace. Could be replaced with less if we get to full self driving.

Per https://www.spiegel.de/spiegel//index-15456.html article, "Von 100 auf null" it does not look too rosy for old players from Germania.

Tesla Model S, 3, X, Y are just a beginning really. There are the Semi, Pickup truck, roadster 2020 and smaller $20K car coming.

Nobody else works on their own battery at a meaningful scale, all but Tesla rely on LG and others.

It does not take a long time to convince average person that EVs from Tesla are much better.
People are tired of paying horrendous prices for gasoline. All of EU got this very quickly as their gasoline is not subsidized as heavily as in the US.

China is suffocating due to burning gas/diesel - there will be no gasoline cars there.
China is the biggest world market for any car and for EV cars.

Even though Tesla had sold 97,000 cars in Q3 they can't produce enough to satisfy demand.

I could write on and on about how myopic you are, IMO. This will not do much.
Let's wait and get back to those posts in 5? years or so.

I am waiting myself to get the Model Y due to its proper size/price ratio.

 

[rstrohkirch]

You want to wait 5 years and then come back to this post with belief that 80% of the current vehicle manufacturers will be essentially non-existent?

GM by themselves sells 2.1m cars per year. Even if Tesla increased capacity by 300% over the next few years, they would still be selling 25% fewer vehicles than just 1 of the major manufacturers right now.

I think everyone knows electric is the future but I believe your time line feels a bit aggressive. Other manufacturers have PLENTY of time to catch up and deliver comparable products.

 

[bigi]

You want to wait 5 years and then come back to this post with belief that 80% of the current vehicle manufacturers will be essentially non-existent?

GM by themselves sells 2.1m cars per year. Even if Tesla increased capacity by 300% over the next few years, they would still be selling 25% fewer vehicles than just 1 of the major manufacturers right now.

I think everyone knows electric is the future but I believe your time line feels a bit aggressive. Other manufacturers have PLENTY of time to catch up and deliver comparable products.

I said 5?

We can do it anytime you want, man. It does not matter really. I am not saying that I can see into the future, but based on what I know now, it looks as said in my post.

2 years?, 3?

GM, ah? Can we be fair for once?
Per Time.com:
General Motors Bailout Cost Taxpayers $11.2 Billion
The U.S. government spent $49.5 billion to bail out GM, and after the company's bankruptcy in 2009

Also, it does not mean that GM will be selling 2.1 mostly gasoline cars in 5 or so years.

 

[Brainonska511]

Could be replaced with less if we get to full self driving.

FSD, for the most part, is not nearly ready for prime time. It's Duke Nukem Forever for cars.

We could easily get people to drop cars altogether in many places by just improving mass transit, adding additional costs to storing your private vehicle on public property, and repurposing city roads for people and transit instead of private vehicles. Increase the opportunity cost associated with driving and watch what it does to the total number of vehicles.

 

[NutBucket]

Gas in LA is $4 a gallon. It hit $5 a few years back and there was some reduction in traffic but not much. Public transit works better in densely populated areas or if you happen to live or work close to a station. Buses are terrible. I live 18 miles from work. There is a train station a block away from my office. It would take me 1.5 hours each way to use public transit. No thanks.

Face it, a few hundred extra per year in gas is still A LOT less than new car. Plus, if you don't have a proper place to park your car, how are you going to charge it? Is my employer going to install hundreds of chargers? I think there are currently 30-40 chargers and about 3000 people on this campus. I'd buy a CNG or Fuel Cell vehicle before electric.

As bad as people are at driving, I still trust them more than any automated system. Automatic emergency braking is a great technology that should help but even that isn't full vetted yet.

 

[rstrohkirch]

I said 5?

We can do it anytime you want, man. It does not matter really. I am not saying that I can see into the future, but based on what I know now, it looks as said in my post.

You said that other manufactures would be Kodak which I take to mean that they would be a nearly non existant shell of themselves. When another individual responded that that seemed unrealistic you stated that because competition doesn't exist right now that it was realistic. You felt it was realistic enough to want to come back here in 5 years to verify that Tesla is #1 in sales compared to that other car manufactures. Perhaps you meant something else by that. I'm not sure.

GM, ah? Can we be fair for once?
Per Time.com:
General Motors Bailout Cost Taxpayers $11.2 Billion
The U.S. government spent $49.5 billion to bail out GM, and after the company's bankruptcy in 2009

I'm not sure how that's relevant. They still sell 2 million cars a year. Look up the information on all the manufacturers that took aid from either our government or theirs during that time. A lot of them did. If Tesla existed as they are right now during that time...they may not have made it. Because they would have had the exact same issues that every other car maker had.

Also, it does not mean that GM will be selling 2.1 mostly gasoline cars in 5 or so years.

No, but wasn't your point that Tesla in the next few years is going to position itself in the lead? So it doesn't matter if GM sells gas, electric or steam. It's going to be awhile for electric is as desirable as you're implying it will be. In that fairly long stretch of time, other manufacturers will catch up and offer comparable products. Tesla will more than likely still exist but I don't feel like they will be a massive dominating entity in their field compared to others.

 

[NutBucket]

Tesla received their own government handouts in the form of those tax credits for buyers. Same difference really. Actually quite ironic since a vast majority of those early Model S buyers certainly didn't need the credits to entice them.

 

[ponyo]

This is my prediction based on what I've seen so far: Within 20 years: Gone or barely hanging on as zombie companies after being bailed out by various governments.

1. Toyota
2. GM
3. Ford
4. Fiat/Chrysler
5. BMW
6. Mazda
7. Subaru
8. Nissan

Companies that make the successful switch to EV.

1. VW
2. Hyundai
3. Daimler
4. Honda

FSD, for the most part, is not nearly ready for prime time. It's Duke Nukem Forever for cars.

We could easily get people to drop cars altogether in many places by just improving mass transit, adding additional costs to storing your private vehicle on public property, and repurposing city roads for people and transit instead of private vehicles. Increase the opportunity cost associated with driving and watch what it does to the total number of vehicles.

Another prediction. Tesla will have regulatory approved FSD within 5 years. Everyone else will be another decade behind.

I've already placed my bet on who I think is going to be the huge winner: Tesla. Before 20 years, I believe Tesla will sell 20 million fully autonomous vehicles a year.

 

[Brainonska511]

Gas in LA is $4 a gallon. It hit $5 a few years back and there was some reduction in traffic but not much. Public transit works better in densely populated areas or if you happen to live or work close to a station. Buses are terrible. I live 18 miles from work. There is a train station a block away from my office. It would take me 1.5 hours each way to use public transit. No thanks.

Buses are only terrible because we've made a policy decisions that make them terrible. Providing enforced bus lanes, regular service, and all-door boarding goes long ways to making it good. Public transit isn't for every area and won't fix everything, but there is tremendous room to make it so much better than it currently stands.

 

[NutBucket]

Yes, it will only take decades and billions of dollars....

 

[Brainonska511]

Another prediction. Tesla will have regulatory approved FSD within 5 years. Everyone else will be another decade behind.

They may have some impressive lane-keeping cruise control, but come back to me when it works in bad weather, poorly marked roads, and the insanity that is generally driving. Doing well under relatively well-controlled conditions doesn't mean much for the insanity that is driving. Remember, easy things for people are often very difficult for machines. The best self driving vehicles in suburban settings require highly detailed maps to really perform well. I remain highly skeptical of Tesla being able to get around this roadblock.

 

[ponyo]

They may have some impressive lane-keeping cruise control, but come back to me when it works in bad weather, poorly marked roads, and the insanity that is generally driving. Doing well under relatively well-controlled conditions doesn't mean much for the insanity that is driving. Remember, easy things for people are often very difficult for machines. The best self driving vehicles in suburban settings require highly detailed maps to really perform well. I remain highly skeptical of Tesla being able to get around this roadblock.

You may be right. Tesla might not get FSD for very long time and lot longer than they or anyone else think. But I'm confident Tesla will be the first to solve FSD for use anywhere. And when they do, their margin on FSD cars will go up to like 80-90% and Tesla is going to print money. That will change everything overnight.

 

[bigi]

You said that other manufactures would be Kodak which I take to mean that they would be a nearly non existant shell of themselves. When another individual responded that that seemed unrealistic you stated that because competition doesn't exist right now that it was realistic. You felt it was realistic enough to want to come back here in 5 years to verify that Tesla is #1 in sales compared to that other car manufactures. Perhaps you meant something else by that. I'm not sure.

-- No you got it right.

I'm not sure how that's relevant. They still sell 2 million cars a year. Look up the information on all the manufacturers that took aid from either our government or theirs during that time. A lot of them did. If Tesla existed as they are right now during that time...they may not have made it. Because they would have had the exact same issues that every other car maker had.

-- This is relevant because if we keep bailing out failures for 11 billion a pop, this will only lead to further and more substantial failures. This is a good quote I found out that might shed some light here:

"The big car companies aren't "sleeping giants". IMO, they are fat, lazy, over-confident morons, who are too top heavy with management that can't won't change unless forced to, and saddled with the burdens of unions who don't want EV's, and huge investments in factories and equipment to only build ICE vehicles. "


No, but wasn't your point that Tesla in the next few years is going to position itself in the lead? So it doesn't matter if GM sells gas, electric or steam. It's going to be awhile for electric is as desirable as you're implying it will be. In that fairly long stretch of time, other manufacturers will catch up and offer comparable products. Tesla will more than likely still exist but I don't feel like they will be a massive dominating entity in their field compared to others.

-- No, Tesla is already the leader. Tesla is so far ahead of everybody else that is very hard to comprehend to average Joe Doe fed by media bull crap.
Nobody cares about ICE manufacturers anymore. All are dead horses. Most just don't feel this yet.

I only proposed to see this in 5 years to verify everybody's point of view from today.

 

[bigi]

FSD, for the most part, is not nearly ready for prime time. It's Duke Nukem Forever for cars.

We could easily get people to drop cars altogether in many places by just improving mass transit, adding additional costs to storing your private vehicle on public property, and repurposing city roads for people and transit instead of private vehicles. Increase the opportunity cost associated with driving and watch what it does to the total number of vehicles.

I did not say FSD is ready to go 100% now. It is getting closer to completion. I said when it is ready...

You might not remember but Amazon's same day delivery for most one can imagine was Science-Fiction not that long ago. Now, you just click and have Merry xmass every time you do.

 

[herm0016]

GM's self driving stuff is just as mature as Tesla, they are just more risk adverse. they have the system in some Cadillac's named super cruise collecting data for them. Tesla is still having a lot of quality issues, you just don't hear about it from the normal sources because everyone loves them. They also need to work on their used car process, which for many, after you pay for your car, they wont let you take delivery for months and give you all kinds of run around.


GM and Ford are working on a bit of catch up.

 

[Midwayman]

I'd say Tesla is a little wreckless with FSD. They're deploying before its ready and who know if the hardware in cars now will ever be capable of real FSD. Paying $6-7k is just nuts for something that might never work. That's not saying FSD won't happen, but Telsa is taking an approach that requires significantly better computer vision AI than its competitors.

 

[Aikouka]

Speaking of add-ons, I've never been a huge fan of how Tesla chargers for package upgrades. For example, when I bought the car, EAP was $5k at delivery and $6k after. On the other hand, FSD was $3k at delivery and $5k after. Outside of the new computer for FSD, everything else is just a software authorization. (To note, the new computer wasn't even a thing when I ordered, so it wasn't given such a huge hike due to the hardware upgrade.) Honestly, I don't think there's a way to look at it other than a tactic to push people to upgrade their options to avoid having to pay more later, and I think that's a pretty scummy thing to do.

Of course, I paid for FSD because I didn't want to pay more later, and what ended up happening? Tesla accidentally dropped it to $2k when doing the EAP to AP switch, and my friend, who ordered his car without FSD, ended up paying less to upgrade his car post-delivery than I paid for the feature at delivery. I still wish I would've just ordered AWD instead of FSD.