$35,000 Tesla Model III Is Coming In 2017

[repoman0]

BTW, that accident probably wouldn't have happened if both cars were driverless cars. It's humans that cause accidents.

Tesla is going to get so much publicity from this Smart Summon feature/party trick.

This post didn’t age well, and it hasn’t even been a day lol

 

[ponyo]

why are these idiots trying this stuff in busy, public parking lots? This is ridicuous. Get in your car and drive it, assholes.

I wonder what the owners in the other cars think about being test data points for idiots and their RC toys?

Of course people are going to be experimenting in all kinds of environment. That's the point. People can't help it. I would be testing it too if I had a Tesla. But as bad as it may be, this info and data are what's needed if Tesla is going to advance with its self driving and machine learning tech. There's no way Tesla themselves can think of all these different scenarios to program on their own. These "idiots" are helping Tesla learn and advancing their machine learning technology. You have to start somewhere and right now the cars are driving like brand new 15 year old driver. The system is going to learn as these data come in and are applied. Maybe in couple of years it will drive like normal 16 year old. And in about a decade, it might drive better and have faster reaction time than any human driver. Who knows. But without Tesla pressing forward and releasing this publicly, we wouldn't advance as quickly. I say it's worth the risks.

The owners of other cars are thinking, "That's crazy. Tesla car was driving itself. Why can't my car do that? I wish I had a Tesla."

 

[ponyo]

This post didn’t age well, and it hasn’t even been a day lol

I haven't seen any video where it was at fault hitting another car.

 

[repoman0]

The owners of other cars are thinking, "That's crazy. Tesla car was driving itself. Why can't my car do that? I wish I had a Tesla."

Nope, I'm thinking thank god I'm not a beta tester for half-baked self driving tech, and am thankful my car isn't uploading data to a server somewhere.

 

[ponyo]

Nope, I'm thinking thank god I'm not a beta tester for half-baked self driving tech, and am thankful my car isn't uploading data to a server somewhere.

It's ok. There are still plenty of people in the world without internet and using dumb phones. You're not special. The world will move on without you.

 

[repoman0]

It's ok. There are still plenty of people in the world without internet and using dumb phones. You're not special. The world will move on without you.

I work on this shit every day in the robotics group of a top-tier university research lab. I actually contribute to the world moving on beyond shilling for Tesla in forums, and I know very well that this isn’t ready for public roads and won’t be for longer than people expect.

 

[ponyo]

I work on this shit every day in the robotics group of a top-tier university research lab. I actually contribute to the world moving on beyond shilling for Tesla in forums, and I know very well that this isn’t ready for public roads and won’t be for longer than people expect.

I don't give a shit what you do or where you work. You actually think you and your job are special? You're fucking delusional and think way too highly of yourself. Let me clue you in. You don't matter.

But that might explain your BMW M3 fetish. It looks like we have Alky Jr. here among us.

 

[repoman0]

I don't give a shit what you do or where you work. You actually think you and your job are special? You're fucking delusional and think way too highly of yourself. Let me clue you in. You don't matter.

But that might explain your BMW M3 fetish. It looks like we have Alky Jr. here among us.

Damn, Tesla shill is triggered hard. And they don’t even pay you for this? The personal insults are really not a good look for your shilling game.

My “super special” job means I actually keep up on “machine learning” literature and research and take part in it, and don’t just toss it around like some magic buzzword on forums. You don’t have a clue what the state of the field is because you spend all your time shilling rather than reading.

 

[ponyo]

Damn, Tesla shill is triggered hard. And they don’t even pay you for this? The personal insults are really not a good look for your shilling game.

My “super special” job means I actually keep up on “machine learning” literature and research and take part in it, and don’t just toss it around like some magic buzzword on forums. You don’t have a clue what the state of the field is because you spend all your time shilling rather than reading.

Alky Jr., go find a mirror so you can flex and admire yourself.

I never claimed to be an expert. The only person here claiming to be expert is you. But given you haven't accomplished anything in your life and still just a working grunt, forgive me if I don't find your credentials and claims impressive. I can respect someone like George Hotz because he has accomplished things and actually working on stuff similar to Tesla. So when I hear people like Hotz say Tesla is on the right path and will solve self driving before anyone including him, I can respect that. You on the other hand can shout how smart you are and you might as well shout in vacuum. You haven't proved anything other than you're Alky's younger brother.

 

[repoman0]

Alky Jr., go find a mirror so you can flex and admire yourself.

I never claimed to be an expert. The only person here claiming to be expert is you. But given you haven't accomplished anything in your life and still just a working grunt, forgive me if I don't find your credentials and claims impressive. I can respect someone like George Hotz because he has accomplished things and actually working on stuff similar to Tesla. So when I hear people like Hotz say Tesla is on the right path and will solve self driving before anyone including him, I can respect that. You on the other hand can shout how smart you are and you might as well shout in vacuum. You haven't proved anything other than you're Alky's younger brother.

Mindless angry ranting laced with pointless insults, not even worth the response anymore :/ Sorry about your Tesla investment, hope it works out. Read the research next time. Small hint: forum shilling won’t make the stock price go up.

 

[ponyo]

Mindless angry ranting laced with pointless insults, not even worth the response anymore :/ Sorry about your Tesla investment, hope it works out. Read the research next time. Small hint: forum shilling won’t make the stock price go up.

Goodbye! Go find another thread to shit on. I don't need your pity. Unlike you, I actually have money.

 

[repoman0]

Goodbye! Go find another thread to shit on. I don't need your pity. Unlike you, I actually have money.

Congrats, it clearly hasn’t bought you an education or a brain. I’d tell you how much money I have but I’m afraid it would make me look like a classless insecure tool.

 

[ponyo]

Congrats, it clearly hasn’t bought you an education or a brain. I’d tell you how much money I have but I’m afraid it would make me look like a classless insecure tool.

Go on. Tell us. We promise we won't laugh.

 

[repoman0]

Go on. Tell us. We promise we won't laugh.

Nah, I’ll leave the classless insecure tool thing to you. I’m happy to keep it to myself.

Interesting look to laugh if someone happens to make less than you though? Seems pretty gross to me. Maybe you come from a different time, I shouldn’t judge.

 

[ponyo]

Nah, I’ll leave the classless insecure tool thing to you. I’m happy to keep it to myself.

But you were so happy to share how smart and important you were! Don't leave us hanging!

 

[repoman0]

But you were so happy to share how smart and important you were! Don't leave us hanging!

Says a lot that you think reading literature and doing research means “sharing how smart and important you are.” I build and program UAVs and other autonomous vehicles and was laughing at the shitty Tesla performance that’s roughly in line with the rest of the field. Bummer that the average forum shill things I’m smarter and more important than him, wasn’t the intent.

 

[ponyo]

Says a lot that you think reading literature and doing research means “sharing how smart and important you are.” I build and program UAVs and other autonomous vehicles and was laughing at the shitty Tesla performance that’s roughly in line with the rest of the field. Bummer that the average forum shill things I’m smarter and more important than him, wasn’t the intent.

I think I have crapped on this thread long enough. I don't know if there are any MODs here anymore but if so, feel free to clean up our mess. reomano0, if you want to continue, send it to my PM box.

 

[Aikouka]

@ponyo and @repoman0 ...don't make me make you two hug it out.

Smart Summon accident...I wonder how this is gonna play out with insurance:

In a normal situation, it's the Tesla's fault. You could argue that it's still the Tesla's fault because it's their job to watch the car. The Model 3 literally just runs into the car that's backing out. Now, this situation is a great example of what I was talking about. This is a situation where the vehicle backing out likely couldn't see the Tesla (some vehicles have awful sight lines in the rear) and the Tesla probably wouldn't be in the rear-view camera's sight. This is where a human driver realizes "oh crap... they're backing out" and stops or at least honks their horn.

This guy's Model 3 ran into his garage

That's the reason why I've never tried the summon option on my garage. Hell, when I wasn't careful one time, I smacked into the flashing on the garage. (I always get proximity errors when pulling out, so it's easy to just ignore them.) Anyway, I've always taken the summon as being a nearly strictly backwards/forwards function. I also don't perceive enhanced summon as looking at my garage and understanding that it has to weave its way out. (You have to turn all the way to the left like you're about to hit the left wall and then back out and finally straighten out once you're past the pole.)

I don't work in AI development, but given that I work in software, the idea of how these algorithms work (or don't work ) is.. fascinating. I mean... just sit there sometime and think about how much goes through your head... how much understanding you need to comprehend what you're looking at in various driving conditions. It's a massive undertaking! In that other video that you posted, the car just had no visual comprehension as to whether it was on a road or not. Maybe a similar test would be to blindfold someone, take them to a location (like that guy's house), put them in the front seat, remove the blindfold and have them drive using only the mirrors and whatever camera views they have. That might be about as close as you can get to having the same understanding as the car.

why are these idiots trying this stuff in busy, public parking lots? This is ridicuous. Get in your car and drive it, assholes.

I wonder what the owners in the other cars think about being test data points for idiots and their RC toys?

Well, I think the idea is for it to be able to come up to the front in a downpour and pick you up. But hell.. if you paid thousands for the feature, wouldn't you want to try it out? (To note, while I have it, I haven't tried it yet.)

 

[repoman0]

I think I have crapped on this thread long enough. I don't know if there are any MODs here anymore but if so, feel free to clean up our mess. reomano0, if you want to continue, send it to my PM box.

No need, can’t have a good old fashioned internet argument over PM. Thanks for being a good sport :thumbup:

In all seriousness I hope I’m wrong about the time table. It’d of course be great if the average idiot got into a self driving car so I could enjoy my good old fashioned dino boxes in safety and efficiency. Just found it interesting that Musk decided it would be a responsible idea to release this well before it’s even close to ready. I believe it was the Ford CEO who recently said self driving tech was a longer way off than expected, which is what I have expected for a couple years now.

 

[ponyo]

@ponyo and @repoman0 ...don't make me make you two hug it out.



In a normal situation, it's the Tesla's fault. You could argue that it's still the Tesla's fault because it's their job to watch the car. The Model 3 literally just runs into the car that's backing out. Now, this situation is a great example of what I was talking about. This is a situation where the vehicle backing out likely couldn't see the Tesla (some vehicles have awful sight lines in the rear) and the Tesla probably wouldn't be in the rear-view camera's sight. This is where a human driver realizes "oh crap... they're backing out" and stops or at least honks their horn.

We're good! I can be little crazy and passionate about Tesla. And I don't even own their car!

I don't think Tesla M3 was at fault in that accident. The Model 3 stopped while the Lexus continued to back out. So it was the Lexus that ran into the Model 3. But being this accident occured on private parking lot, I wouldn't be surprised if both cars are cited and found equally at fault.

No need, can’t have a good old fashioned internet argument over PM. Thanks for being a good sport :thumbup:

In all seriousness I hope I’m wrong about the time table. It’d of course be great if the average idiot got into a self driving car so I could enjoy my good old fashioned dino boxes in safety and efficiency. Just found it interesting that Musk decided it would be a responsible idea to release this well before it’s even close to ready. I believe it was the Ford CEO who recently said self driving tech was a longer way off than expected, which is what I have expected for a couple years now.

I think Musk released this because he promised Smart Summon feature long time ago when Tesla was still using Mobileye back in 2016. But Tesla divorced Mobileye and rebuilt Autopilot and self driving from scratch with their own hardware and software. So this complete rebuild set Tesla back like 2-3 years but Musk promised feature complete self driving by end of this year. No one really believes Tesla will be feature complete by end of this year but Musk seems pretty determined. With the release of this Smart Summon, Tesla might be able to start recognizing some of the FSD revenue that's already on the book but yet can't claim. I think there's something like $1.5 billion FSD money they collected but yet can't recognize until they start delivering FSD features.

There's also the machine learning and the publicity/marketing angle. This public release will speed up data collection and edge case learning for Tesla. And this is going to be goldmine for publicity and marketing, good and bad. Look how much we're talking about it here. When people see this for the first time out in public, it's going to create instant buzz and people are going to freak out. You can't buy that kind of advertising. But the problem is every major accident will be front page news. Especially if someone is hurt or killed. So this could create additional legislation for self driving and slow the progress. But the genie is out of the bottle so let's see how this plays out.

 

[Aikouka]

We're good! I can be little crazy and passionate about Tesla. And I don't even own their car!

I feel like the opposite having to deal with them. There's a part of me that wishes I would've just been lame and bought a Nissan Leaf. At least in that case, the dealer is only 15 minutes away. Although, I don't really agree with the process that a lot of incumbents take with their EVs, which involves using existing platforms and just tossing electronic drive components in there. I don't think you can really argue against Tesla leading the market in a few areas -- such as battery tech and charging -- but whew... some aspects of their infrastructure could use a bit of work.

I don't think Tesla M3 was at fault in that accident. The Model 3 stopped while the Lexus continued to back out. So it was the Lexus that ran into the Model 3. But being this accident occured on private parking lot, I wouldn't be surprised if both cars are cited and found equally at fault.

Admittedly, it was pretty hard to see given the guy pulled his phone down at what seemed like right before the impact. It looked like the Model 3 was still moving to me, but I could certainly be wrong there.

With the release of this Smart Summon, Tesla might be able to start recognizing some of the FSD revenue that's already on the book but yet can't claim. I think there's something like $1.5 billion FSD money they collected but yet can't recognize until they start delivering FSD features.

That's what I saw a bunch of people talking about on the teslamotors sub-reddit. Essentially, releasing an FSD feature means they can count the revenue for this quarter.

 

[Kaido]

But Tesla divorced Mobileye and rebuilt Autopilot and self driving from scratch with their own hardware and software

So as it turns out, MobileEye dropped Tesla, not the other way around. Musk jumped on Twitter first, however, and beat them to the punch, saying it was Tesla who dropped MobileEye. A good quote from Mobileye's CEO:

Mobileye spills the beans: Tesla was dropped because of safety concerns

Now we know who ended the relationship.

arstechnica.com

On Wednesday, Mobileye revealed that it ended its relationship with Tesla because "it was pushing the envelope in terms of safety." Mobileye's CTO and co-founder Amnon Shashua told Reuters that the electric vehicle maker was using his company's machine vision sensor system in applications for which it had not been designed.

"No matter how you spin it, (Autopilot) is not designed for that. It is a driver assistance system and not a driverless system," Shashua said.

Another article:

Dear Elon: Mobileye breaks up with Tesla

Mobileye's investors are not taking it well, sending the stock down after the news broke.

www.cnet.com

Mobileye CEO: Tesla accepting higher risk to lower its autonomy costs:

Mobileye CEO: Tesla is 'willing to take more risks' in its self-driving efforts

Amnon Shashua gives us his perspective on the state of the self-driving industry.

www.cnet.com

Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua has an elevated perspective of the automotive industry, to say the least. As a technology partner and supplier to virtually every major auto manufacturer save Toyota and Daimler, he is uniquely qualified to say who's doing well and who, perhaps, is lagging behind in the rapidly accelerating race towards true vehicular autonomy. He also has concerns that some players may be engaging in risky behavior.

...

"Companies like Tesla or NIO," Shashua told me, "they skip the use of a Tier 1. They become their own Tier 1. I think this is something that is possible to do when you have small scale... That allows them to move faster." Shashua was referring to the complex relationship between vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, a process with which many have become more familiar, thanks to Tesla's various struggles to get the components where it needs, when it needs.

...

"With Tesla," Shashua continued, "the first Autopilot was introduced in November 2014. It took about a year of development. With regular OEMs, it took closer to three years. That there are less players in the loop, in the chain, accelerates things."

...


Mobileye, though it initially developed its autonomy solution to use only cameras, is backing that up with a discrete lidar- and radar-based package, in theory providing full redundancy. Tesla, however, insists it will offer full autonomy without lidar sensors on its cars.

"So what is Tesla stating? They are willing to take more risks in sensing mistakes because they have less redundancy, because they want to have a lower-cost technology." This, Shashua said, contrasts with a traditional OEM. "Another car manufacturer can come in and say, 'I want to have almost zero risk in having a sensing mistake and I'm wiling to pay more for that, or my customers are willing to pay more for that, so therefore I'm putting not only radars and cameras, but also lidars.'"

I think the situation is pretty clear:

1. Musk is a big-picture guy. He's an optimist, he is smart, and he knows what needs to be done.
2. However, he has to live within the constraints of corporate finance, which means deadlines & delivery timetables, so he has to play both the technology game & the business game.
3. He is pushing the technology along, because it does need to get done, but there are risks, especially risks with releasing it faster & sooner than it should be released. However, we kill 30k+ people a year on America roads alone, so there's a strong argument for pushing through the beta testing to get it done. To be clear, this absolutely doesn't justify killing anyone from half-baked software, but it is & will continue to be part of the price of progress, because we do need to solve this problem & stop the tens of thousands of deaths annually from car accidents.

I think the biggest trap right now, other than Tesla releasing software that probably shouldn't be in the hands of consumers, is what I call "the lull of complacency". It's the idea that we are creatures of habit, and that we get used to routine, and that trusting a partially-self-driving car can get you or someone else injured or killed. I believe in every case of an Autopilot-related death or accident, if the driver had been paying attention, they could have stopped the crash - but they were distracted (playing on the phone, eating, etc.) & were trusting the car - which requires babysitting currently - to protect them. I don't trust my family not to fall into this trap while driving - like, I'm familiar enough with the technology to know not to trust it completely, but I know my family would totally just accept it as totally fine for full self-driving, when it absolutely is not, and I don't want to put them in that situation until that software is truly vetted.

 

[ponyo]

I've been reading people's impressions and test on Smart Summon. I feel better about human safety now. From reports and video I've seen, Model 3 will stop to avoid hitting a human. I saw a video of a person trying to get the Model 3 to hit him as he was using the Summon and it wouldn't. It would stop even when he surprised it and jump out in front of the car. And other people have reported the same. There are some crazy owners trying to get the car to hit them and the car won't do it and stops. So that's good. And it's pausing and stopping at every intersection for like 4-5 seconds and checking before determining the coast is clear and continuing.

There are lot of work to be done having it recognize speed bumps and other small obstacles but it's a good start. This is pretty historic software release IMO. I feel like this is the start of our Skynet moment and people will look back and cite this achievement as the new beginning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1178110384210939905

 

[ponyo]

@Kaido , who knows if Musk is telling the truth or Mobileye is about who dropped who. It's in the past now and both companies have moved on. From everything I've read, Tesla autopilot was god awful after they stopped using Mobileye. People say it took like 2 years for Tesla developed version to match and surpass what they had with Mobileye. Now that Tesla also dropped Nvidia and developed their own HW3, I want to see that in action. I know this Smart Summon is only using HW2.5 so it's compatible with all the Nvidia systems. I can't wait until the software switches over to only support HW3 and see how much that improves self driving.

 

[Kaido]

@Kaido , who knows if Musk is telling the truth or Mobileye is about who dropped who

Yeah, and it's even more difficult because it's a short-term vs. long-term conversation. Shot-term, there are a lot of avoidable mistakes. Long-term, we, as humanity, need electric cars & self-driving cars. We need more sustainable power sources. One in six deaths globally are linked to pollution, to the tune of 9 million deaths in 2015:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/one-six-global-deaths-linked-pollution-180965347/

Statistically-speaking, and not to discount our soldier's sacrifices in any way, as of June 29, 2016, the U.S. Department of Defense casualty website lists 4,424 total American deaths in the Iraq War of 2003 to 2010 (a 7-year span of time), with a financial cost of $1.1 trillion dollars. In the same span of time, we lost a total of 317,502 Americans to car accidents. A trillion-dollar investment would go a long way to furthering our car safety situation, both from a pollution standpoint & from a self-driving standpoint. We can't make cars much safer - we have crumple zones, airbags, high-strength steel, etc., at least, not without incorporating stuff like HANS devices, and we can't solve the probably simply by limiting everyone to 20 miles per hour due to the economic impact, which would reduce the impact of a head-on collision to 40mph total, which with all of the safety features, would be survivable in most cases...but we can switch to electric, put in more solar panels, create government think-tanks for self-driving systems, for cars that communicate with each, for retrofitting older cars with improved safety features, etc.

It's a solvable problem, but it requires a significant economic investment. Musk is leading the charge, so for better or for worse, at least someone is working on it. More companies are starting to follow suit, but without the marketplace pressure from Tesla, nobody did jack squat before. Sure, we had 80-mile EV's, but no nation-wide charging system, and hardly any companies were working on FSD. Now even Cadillac has a highway "super cruise" feature in production. So I see the problems with Musk & Tesla & see why people are complaining, but I also think, to some degree, it's necessary - it could just be handled better & more safely, but Musk also has the reality of the business world to answer to, and if his company sinks before they get FSD out there, I'd imagine not many other car companies are going to hop to it to continue the work, because they're now free to drag their feet forever, due to a lack of market pressure.