Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[nakedfrog]

Even if you just go by historical standards, without taking anything about our massively changing political landscape into account, Biden is poised to lose reelection.

Historically, a 50% approval rating or up is a safe reelection bet. Not too far under 50% it starts to get iffier fast. Historically, under 40% you are in deep doodoo and will lose.

Biden's approval rating just hit a low of 37%

All these people saying Biden is the smart safe choice are just wrong and they are harming the Dem party. And a big chunk of his own party's voters DON'T EVEN WANT TO SEE HIM RUNNING AGAIN!

Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically

Presidential job approval ratings have historically been a reliable predictor of reelection for presidents, as all those with ratings of 48% or higher have won a second term.

news.gallup.com

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%

Democrats' less positive appraisal of Biden's presidency has sent his overall job approval rating down to 37%, tied for his lowest to date.

news.gallup.com

As far as I'm aware, the election is still a year away, not sure it makes sense to project a loss a year from now based on the approval ratings as they stand today. People can be fickle, who knows if people will still be upset about this by then.

 

[MrSquished]

As far as I'm aware, the election is still a year away, not sure it makes sense to project a loss a year from now based on the approval ratings as they stand today. People can be fickle, who knows if people will still be upset about this by then.

I'm not predicting a loss, no need to put words in my mouth. I'm just showing that people who think Biden is the safe choice and talk shit to anybody who even thinks otherwise are just spouting nonsense at this point.

 

[nakedfrog]

I'm not predicting a loss, no need to put words in my mouth. I'm just showing that people who think Biden is the safe choice and talk shit to anybody who even thinks otherwise are just spouting nonsense at this point.

Pardon me, I guess I misinterpreted the statement "Biden is poised to lose reelection" as projecting a loss.

 

[gothuevos]

If Biden loses this election its going to have to do with the economy. And nothing else.

The high cost of living is going to be the dems downfall IMO.

While I agree with this, it would be nice to see someone ask these GOP candidates exactly what they propose to do to bring down cost of living?

Rent/housing price control? Communist.

What else? Is a GOP President going to suddenly usher in several months/years of negative inflation to bring prices down?

Our "media" and "journalists" continue to fail us.

 

[iRONic]

Shitlol!

The tangerine terrorist is a landlord. The mortal enemy of every renter & tenant in the land.

 

[fskimospy]

While I agree with this, it would be nice to see someone ask these GOP candidates exactly what they propose to do to bring down cost of living?

Rent/housing price control? Communist.

What else? Is a GOP President going to suddenly usher in several months/years of negative inflation to bring prices down?

Our "media" and "journalists" continue to fail us.

Their actual plan is to raise cost of living through things like repealing the ability of Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

 

[nakedfrog]

While I agree with this, it would be nice to see someone ask these GOP candidates exactly what they propose to do to bring down cost of living?

Rent/housing price control? Communist.

What else? Is a GOP President going to suddenly usher in several months/years of negative inflation to bring prices down?

Our "media" and "journalists" continue to fail us.

Cut taxes on the job creators so they can supercharge the economy. Boom, done.

 

[manly]

As far as I'm aware, the election is still a year away, not sure it makes sense to project a loss a year from now based on the approval ratings as they stand today. People can be fickle, who knows if people will still be upset about this by then.

Biden's low approval ratings have been stable for 2 years now, so warning bells should be going off. I know the administration actually accomplished a lot in its first two years, but voters are just pissed off over inflation or his age, the southern border, or a rematch vs Trump. I don't mean just clueless GQP voters who insist the sky is falling, but a fair chunk of swing or (D) voters as well. If people are just being fickle, they better figure this shit out sooner rather than later. You may think that a year away is a long time, but that could be either good or bad. Good that there's still time left to change people's minds, but bad if a recession finally lands in 2024.

Note that it's unlikely a recession could be "called" prior to the election, because there is always a lag time for that to happen. We'd have to be in a recession already, and we're not. Having said that, if conditions "on the ground" (such as unemployment) deteriorate, people would know and blame POTUS. The weirdest thing is how many people currently think the economy is shitty, mainly because of inflation. Q3 GDP growth shot like a cannon, but consumers sentiment actually dipped the past few months...

At this point, there's no sense in continuing to whine that Biden is the only (D) candidate despite his perceived or actual flaws. If Govs Whitmer or Newsom wanted to challenge him, they needed to do it months ago. The die is cast, and we need to convince all the people ambivalent about Joe Biden that 2024 is a vote for democracy vs. fascism.

 

[MrSquished]

Pardon me, I guess I misinterpreted the statement "Biden is poised to lose reelection" as projecting a loss.

Please quote where I said that. Good luck. Again, putting words into my mouth.

 

[Pens1566]

Please quote where I said that. Good luck. Again, putting words into my mouth.

Even if you just go by historical standards, without taking anything about our massively changing political landscape into account, Biden is poised to lose reelection.

Historically, a 50% approval rating or up is a safe reelection bet. Not too far under 50% it starts to get iffier fast. Historically, under 40% you are in deep doodoo and will lose.

Biden's approval rating just hit a low of 37%

All these people saying Biden is the smart safe choice are just wrong and they are harming the Dem party. And a big chunk of his own party's voters DON'T EVEN WANT TO SEE HIM RUNNING AGAIN!

Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically

Presidential job approval ratings have historically been a reliable predictor of reelection for presidents, as all those with ratings of 48% or higher have won a second term.

news.gallup.com

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%

Democrats' less positive appraisal of Biden's presidency has sent his overall job approval rating down to 37%, tied for his lowest to date.

news.gallup.com

Bolded and underlined.

Post #74 if you're scoring at home.

 

[nakedfrog]

Please quote where I said that. Good luck. Again, putting words into my mouth.

Do you want me to quote it again? It was literally already there in the post I quoted.

 

[MrSquished]

Bolded and underlined.

Post #74 if you're scoring at home.

My bad, I'm at the office making tons of calls and on the road on showings today and being too quick typing, I misspoke. I think Biden could potentially lose the election and is not a safe bet. Not nearly as safe as the majority on here think he is.

I've been pretty consistent in thinking exactly that since he declared his run again and stating that many times in this exact forum.

It's a coin flip at this point. I don't think those odds are good enough. I think the Dems can do better. If you say you think the Dems can do better, you get shot down around these parts though.

 

[MrSquished]

And one thing that's interesting about the latest approval rating drop for Biden is it pretty much only came from Democrats.

He is an unusually unpopular incumbent among his own party. And the shittier the Republicans act, You think he'd be shoring up his party support instead he's losing it. The year is a long way away but I certainly feel the people that just feel safe with biden's incumbency are foolish at the least.

 

[Fenixgoon]

And one thing that's interesting about the latest approval rating drop for Biden is it pretty much only came from Democrats.

He is an unusually unpopular incumbent among his own party. And the shittier the Republicans act, You think he'd be shoring up his party support instead he's losing it. The year is a long way away but I certainly feel the people that just feel safe with biden's incumbency are foolish at the least.

Right now Democrats can afford the luxury of not liking Biden. The real question is, will those people who don't like him, line up to vote for him against trump? Because that's what actually counts. There are repubs that don't like trump but will still vote for him in a general election.

 

[MrSquished]

Right now Democrats can afford the luxury of not liking Biden. The real question is, will those people who don't like him, line up to vote for him against trump? Because that's what actually counts. There are repubs that don't like trump but will still vote for him in a general election.

Of course that's the question. A bunch of Democrats I speak to who are intelligent, they of course voted for Biden in 2020, but many are pissed off at the dems because they're like really this is the best we got? They're very disappointed and think it's pathetic. I mean literally like I hear, are you fucking kidding me, Biden again? This is what the dems can put up? And I don't blame them. Of course I tell them they have to vote for Biden no matter who the Republican nominee is but, people are not happy with Biden. The polls are pretty clear on what a lot of people in his party thinking and it's not good.


I think a decent amount of people right now would just be like they hate Trump, but a chunk won't show up at the polls. Maybe enough will for Biden to squeak through, But what about control of the house and senate.

And how do we know the nominee will be Trump? It's a long time between now and the presidential race. Trump's got all sorts of problems. Looks like his brain is failing and his health, fat old people you know.

I do find it concerning that people aren't concerned about Biden. People are foolish and we saw what happened in 2016. Biden literally inspires nobody. It doesn't matter what he's accomplished considering what he's faced, many people don't do things based on logic. They do it on emotion. We are political junkies here so we can logically see the correct choice. Most people are not political junkies though.

The emotion versus logic thing is just strange that people think logic will win. People are emotional creatures. Something I think a lot of people here fail to understand. Which is amazing cuz all you have to do is look at humanity and any given moment on any given day and see exactly that happening ad infinitum.

The Republicans are a cult of evil. But it seems democratic political junkies are in a bit of their own cult, because if you question the choice of biden's viability really in any significant way whatsoever, You are a pariah.

 

[Lezunto]

I may find it immensely difficult to vote for Biden again. I will never support Trump or any other racist Republican. But Uncle Joe has apparently decided Palestinian children must be slaughtered.

Wow.

Bombing refugee camps. Just wow. What a shitty species so many of us seem to be.

 

[hal2kilo]

I may find it immensely difficult to vote for Biden again. I will never support Trump or any other racist Republican. But Uncle Joe has apparently decided Palestinian children must be slaughtered.

Wow.

Bombing refugee camps. Just wow. What a shitty species so many of us seem to be.

Yea, like the other side cares. Keep making Trump our next president possible.

 

[manly]

I didn't realize Joe Biden is the commander-in-chief of the IDF.

 

[Leeea]

Biden replacement number 1 leaves a small crater behind:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/02/dean-phillips-town-hall-new-hampshire/

‘You just gaslit her’: How Dean Phillips’s first town hall went off the rails in N.H.​

 

[MrSquished]

Biden replacement number 1 leaves a small crater behind:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/02/dean-phillips-town-hall-new-hampshire/

They guy's an idiot.

Nobody should primary Biden. It's up to the Democratic party to come to a decision together. Apparently they've made it for now, and if you question it, you're nuts. But they can evolve as well.

 

[eelw]

I didn't realize Joe Biden is the commander-in-chief of the IDF.

Exactly. While sure the word of the defacto world leader carries influence. Outside of bribing or threaten, him calling for seize fire is moot.

 

[ivwshane]

They guy's an idiot.

Nobody should primary Biden. It's up to the Democratic party to come to a decision together. Apparently they've made it for now, and if you question it, you're nuts. But they can evolve as well.

You think people aren’t running for the Democrat nominee to be president because that’s what the dnc decided? Do you know how this all works?

 

[MrSquished]

You think people aren’t running for the Democrat nominee to be president because that’s what the dnc decided? Do you know how this all works?

Let me explain it to you easily. The Democratic party is not the DNC, although the DNC does have favorites in presidential primaries. The Democratic party consists of all the democratic politicians. It is mostly party loyalty that keeps the Dems united behind the nominee without primarying them. The DNC doesn't control all the pols in that way.

If I wanted to say Democratic National Committee I would have said DNC.

 

[ivwshane]

Let me explain it to you easily. The Democratic party is not the DNC, although the DNC does have favorites in presidential primaries. The Democratic party consists of all the democratic politicians. It is mostly party loyalty that keeps the Dems united behind the nominee without primarying them. The DNC doesn't control all the pols in that way.

If I wanted to say Democratic National Committee I would have said DNC.

Well that’s equally stupid as no one, no one, is keeping anyone from running. It’s the same bs argument we heard when people complained about Hillary being the “anointed one”.

 

[gothuevos]

Right now Democrats can afford the luxury of not liking Biden. The real question is, will those people who don't like him, line up to vote for him against trump? Because that's what actually counts. There are repubs that don't like trump but will still vote for him in a general election.

Or they simply won't vote.

Biden is historically unpopular.