Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
According to the The Arab American Institute there are nearly 3.5 million Arab Americans in the United States. Even if they voted as a block would that be enough to change an election?

It would be quite significant in certain states, such as Michigan.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,493
7,547
136
Agreed. Not saying the Dems will make it perfect by any means, but if they had more control of the government, we would definitely see these things change for the better.
Which is why right wing media is awash in blaming everything, including the sun and the moon, on Biden.
The message is a sound one. Democrats have control of the government. We have a President and can cast blame directly at "power".

Incumbency is not a good look. It wasn't for Trump, it will not be for Biden.

Nuances such as, "well you won the election, but you don't have power" in America WILL NOT sell among the psyches of our people.
Humans do not do nuance. Soundbites exist for a reason, they are effective. Why are they effective?.... yeah......

Hopefully COVID did its job, and we can prevail regardless of ongoing troubles. And regardless of the sheer stupidity of not having a primary against someone so frail and un-charismatic.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,247
48,437
136
Which is why right wing media is awash in blaming everything, including the sun and the moon, on Biden.
The message is a sound one. Democrats have control of the government. We have a President and can cast blame directly at "power".

Incumbency is not a good look. It wasn't for Trump, it will not be for Biden.

Nuances such as, "well you won the election, but you don't have power" in America WILL NOT sell among the psyches of our people.
Humans do not do nuance. Soundbites exist for a reason, they are effective. Why are they effective?.... yeah......

Hopefully COVID did its job, and we can prevail regardless of ongoing troubles. And regardless of the sheer stupidity of not having a primary against someone so frail and un-charismatic.
Incumbency is a major advantage in basically all American elections.

That's part of what made Trump's huge loss so impressive - incumbent presidents simply don't lose by such a wide margin in the modern era.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,106
27,875
136
The media is dropping the ball on associations with antisemites

Spending all this time criticizing college students meanwhile ignoring all the Republicans who have associated with or quoted white nationalists. Here is a list of the ones I know or found.

Tommy Tubberville
Steve Scalise
MTG
Paul Gosar
Steve King
Trump
Matt Gaetz
Joe Arpaio
Wendy Rogers
Kari Lake
Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin who when asked about her association with a white nationalist said, "who cares"
Josh Hawley
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,662
10,093
136
Which is why right wing media is awash in blaming everything, including the sun and the moon, on Biden.
The message is a sound one. Democrats have control of the government. We have a President and can cast blame directly at "power".

Incumbency is not a good look. It wasn't for Trump, it will not be for Biden.

Nuances such as, "well you won the election, but you don't have power" in America WILL NOT sell among the psyches of our people.
Humans do not do nuance. Soundbites exist for a reason, they are effective. Why are they effective?.... yeah......

Hopefully COVID did its job, and we can prevail regardless of ongoing troubles. And regardless of the sheer stupidity of not having a primary against someone so frail and un-charismatic.
Democrats don't have control of the government.
Presidency? Sure.
Congress? Nope.
Judiciary? Nope.

Giving Dems clear majorities in the House, Senate, and presidency of course would allow them to actually govern and improve the country. You know, the same people who passed the largest infrastructure investment since the great depression.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
Those who can't adjust to situations that fall outside historical norms are a problem.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,260
15,013
136
Those who can't adjust to situations that fall outside historical norms are a problem.


What you are proposing is the continuation of the dumbing down of American politics. Yes it’s easy to do and to take advantage of but an ignorant population is never good for democracy no matter who is in power.

Messaging is important but if the people who need to hear it aren’t listening or refuse to listen then it’s just a waste of resources.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
What you are proposing is the continuation of the dumbing down of American politics. Yes it’s easy to do and to take advantage of but an ignorant population is never good for democracy no matter who is in power.

Messaging is important but if the people who need to hear it aren’t listening or refuse to listen then it’s just a waste of resources.
I'm talking about historical incumbency advantages in regards to this rapidly changing American political environment that we have not encountered in a century. Things like that can't just be taken for granted at this point with what is going on.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,186
27,172
136
According to the The Arab American Institute there are nearly 3.5 million Arab Americans in the United States. Even if they voted as a block would that be enough to change an election?
Looking at the Arab American Institute's demographics page, I think Arab Americans could swing an election in Michigan if they voted as a block. In other states, they don't make a big enough percentage of the population to have a major impact. However, I don't think Arab Americans vote as a block any more than other ethnic groups do.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,501
6,124
126
I'm talking about historical incumbency advantages in regards to this rapidly changing American political environment that we have not encountered in a century. Things like that can't just be taken for granted at this point with what is going on.
I think the form of government our forefathers left us with was designed in such a way that the philosophical understandings of those who founded it, their grounding in the explosion of enlightened thinking that was taking place here in Europe, their understanding of burgeoning of the scientific revolution, reason as a product of enlightened education, etc would be best preserved and at the rate of change that was taking place at their time, could best be preserved by a government that was not easily subject to change quick changing mass hysteria or irrational fads, that the people are dangerous to themselves and any alterations in law based on reactions to sudden events would not be able to overwhelm the whole system. We have a government that is hard and thus slow to change. Unfortunately, since Reagan, there has been a concerted effort to make flash in the pan stupidities like modern conservatism a permanent feature of US voter mentality and what took so long to change for the worse is now impossible to quickly reverse.

All the extremes for a passion for change are now bottled up screaming for revolution. One should exercise great care in what one wishes for. The asymptotic nature of the rate of change today presents challenges unimaginable farther back on the curve. The logical mathematical outcome of accelerating change, seems to me, raises the specter of The Singularity.

I read one estimate, 5 years.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,099
136
Michigan is 2% Muslim, which BTW is only the 5th highest per capita, but the ones with more (NY, CA, IL) are not swing states.

Anyway, take that 2%. Take away the non-voters, which BTW includes everyone with green cards or visas, and everyone not inclined to vote. Take away those who already vote republican. As for the rest, assume half change their voting pattern from D to R, D to third party, or D to non-voting, what's left isn't that much.

And must be weighed against persuadable voters in that state who are pro-Israel. For example, a center-right conservative who is waffling on Trump but is very pro-Israel. Some Jews who are swing voters, etc.

Opinion polling nationally strongly favors Israel right now. I highly doubt Biden is jeopardizing his chances in the general election next year.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,501
6,124
126
Looking at the Arab American Institute's demographics page, I think Arab Americans could swing an election in Michigan if they voted as a block. In other states, they don't make a big enough percentage of the population to have a major impact. However, I don't think Arab Americans vote as a block any more than other ethnic groups do.
Probably not but one thing has definitely changed from when I was a kid. I am now far far more aware of the Palestinian story and I believe the rest of the country and the world is too. I think a two sided issue causes many people to reconsider their beliefs.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
Michigan is 2% Muslim, which BTW is only the 5th highest per capita, but the ones with more (NY, CA, IL) are not swing states.

Anyway, take that 2%. Take away the non-voters, which BTW includes everyone with green cards or visas, and everyone not inclined to vote. Take away those who already vote republican. As for the rest, assume half change their voting pattern from D to R, D to third party, or D to non-voting, what's left isn't that much.

And must be weighed against persuadable voters in that state who are pro-Israel. For example, a center-right conservative who is waffling on Trump but is very pro-Israel. Some Jews who are swing voters, etc.

Opinion polling nationally strongly favors Israel right now. I highly doubt Biden is jeopardizing his chances in the general election next year.

Instead of your nonsensical complete out of the blue sky speculation, let's look at numbers.



Just an early voting and mail-in balloting there was at least 80,000 Arab Americans who voted in 2020. By the way Joe Biden won by $150,000 votes.

So if you think losing a solid chunk of what it's likely over 100k Arab American voters in that election is not an issue, then you're a fool.

It's not like Joe biden's negatives aren't a record highs with a ton of other voting demographics who he needed in 2020. The Arab Americans are just a noticeable part of the puzzle.

But when you want to be pro Zionist you must diminish the significance of Arab American voters because it goes along with your narrative.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,099
136
Instead of your nonsensical complete out of the blue sky speculation, let's look at numbers.



Just an early voting and mail-in balloting there was at least 80,000 Arab Americans who voted in 2020. By the way Joe Biden won by $150,000 votes.

So if you think losing a solid chunk of what it's likely over 100k Arab American voters in that election is not an issue, then you're a fool.

It's not like Joe biden's negatives aren't a record highs with a ton of other voting demographics who he needed in 2020. The Arab Americans are just a noticeable part of the puzzle.

But when you want to be pro Zionist you must diminish the significance of Arab American voters because it goes along with your narrative.

Biden isn't going to lose all 80K of those. All 80K didn't vote for him in the last election. And he won't lose all the ones who did.

And you're ignoring my other point. Opinion polling nationally leans very pro-Israel, and there are undoubtedly persuadable voters who are pro-Israel.

I agree Joe Biden has other negatives and is no lock to win, but not because of this. .He's not going to hurt himself in a national election by taking a stance which is nationally popular. I guaranty you if Biden loses Michigan, he will also lose other swing states he won in 2020, swing states with very few Muslims in them. And this won't be the reason.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
Biden isn't going to lose all 80K of those. All 80K didn't vote for him in the last election. And he won't lose all the ones who did.

And you're ignoring my other point. Opinion polling nationally leans very pro-Israel, and there are undoubtedly persuadable voters who are pro-Israel.

I agree Joe Biden has other negatives and is no lock to win, but not because of this. .He's not going to hurt himself in a national election by taking a stance which is nationally popular. I guaranty you if Biden loses Michigan, he will also lose other swing states he won in 2020, swing states with very few Muslims in them. And this won't be the reason.
That's just early voting and mail in, that doesn't count any 'day of' votes. It's over 100K for sure.

Also, the genocide is being shown on TV, Israel's desire to bomb the Palestinians back to the stone age and kick them out is on full display and admitted, everyone knows it, except extremist pro-Israel supporters like yourself. You don't understand that insane raw impact on these people because to you it's justified.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,645
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That's just early voting and mail in, that doesn't count any 'day of' votes. It's over 100K for sure.

Also, the genocide is being shown on TV, Israel's desire to bomb the Palestinians back to the stone age and kick them out is on full display and admitted, everyone knows it, except extremist pro-Israel supporters like yourself. You don't understand that insane raw impact on these people because to you it's justified.
they are just going to not vote. They are not stupid, they know the other side would be supporting Israel also.

Some of the smarter ones might realize Trump and friends would be doing their best to demonize and purge America of palestinian's and vote Biden anyway.

its lose lose for Biden.

Biden has far more to lose by not supporting Israel. Everyone knows this.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,484
19,903
136
they are just going to not vote.

its lose lose.

Biden has far more to lose by not supporting Israel. Everyone knows this.

He can support Israel without the gung ho way he did, then dismissed Palestinian civilian casualties as part of war. Instead he came out and was way too overboard. There is a way to be balanced. He was not at all. It's not just far left progressives that know the truth about the Palestinian issues, it's a large part of the Dem base.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,645
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it's a large part of the Dem base.
The dem base is going to take one look at Trump and our new speaker of the house. Don't have to like Biden to vote for him.

The alternative is the republicans do their own gaza here. Listen to their rhetoric and who they have been hanging out with. Did you already forget Portland and the unmarked vans abducting people?

Did you already forget Trump holding the bible upside down to invoke God's name to beat down the protestors?

Do you really think that Jan 6th round 2 is going to fail?


Do you really think the average Dem voter is going to sacrifice whats left of democracy in this country for some town on the other side of the planet?


Are you prepared to do that? Are you prepared to let Trump win and reap the whirlwind?

The USA will not fall to chaos, it will fall to fascism, and do you think anyone can stop us when we start enslaving the world? Do you think anyone will even want to?
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,553
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The dem base is going to take one look at Trump and our new speaker of the house. Don't have to like Biden to vote for him.

The alternative is the republicans do their own gaza here. Listen to their rhetoric and who they have been hanging out with. Did you already forget Portland and the unmarked vans abducting people?

Did you already forget Trump holding the bible upside down to invoke God's name to beat down the protestors?

Do you really think that Jan 6th round 2 is going to fail?


Do you really think the average Dem voter is going to sacrifice whats left of democracy in this country for some town on the other side of the planet?


Are you prepared to do that? Are you prepared to let Trump win and reap the whirlwind?

The USA will not fall to chaos, it will fall to fascism, and do you think anyone can stop us when we start enslaving the world? Do you think anyone will even want to?
Chaos, then fascism. There's a very predictable order to them.
 
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akugami

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2005
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Hot take: employee wages aren't labor costs. They are investments in a company's human infrastructure.

Good luck getting people to buy into that though.

+1

This is absolutely true. Even a small business like the neighborhood coffee shop can benefit from this type of thinking.

All these stories about businesses not being able to hire. Well invest in your employees. Make them feel like you actually F'n care. Pay them a thriving wage, and not just a living wage. It's damned insane that regular people see receiving a living wage, one where they can barely feed themselves, as a positive upgrade, as opposed to a thriving wage where they actually have an extra dollar or two to save for the future.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,099
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That's just early voting and mail in, that doesn't count any 'day of' votes. It's over 100K for sure.

Also, the genocide is being shown on TV, Israel's desire to bomb the Palestinians back to the stone age and kick them out is on full display and admitted, everyone knows it, except extremist pro-Israel supporters like yourself. You don't understand that insane raw impact on these people because to you it's justified.

You are dead wrong in everything you just said. But more importantly, you seem to have this warped notion that the majority of the people in this country see this as you do.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,247
48,437
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You are dead wrong in everything you just said. But more importantly, you seem to have this warped notion that the majority of the people in this country see this as you do.
People often mistake the ‘popular’ position to be ‘the position I personally hold’. If anything, polling indicates Americans want Biden to be more pro-Israel, not less.

People need to get away from the silly and wrong idea that catering to the Democratic Party base is how to win elections. If catering to the base worked Trump would be president - instead he lost by the largest margin since Carter.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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Even if you just go by historical standards, without taking anything about our massively changing political landscape into account, Biden is poised to lose reelection.

Historically, a 50% approval rating or up is a safe reelection bet. Not too far under 50% it starts to get iffier fast. Historically, under 40% you are in deep doodoo and will lose.

Biden's approval rating just hit a low of 37%

All these people saying Biden is the smart safe choice are just wrong and they are harming the Dem party. And a big chunk of his own party's voters DON'T EVEN WANT TO SEE HIM RUNNING AGAIN!


 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
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Even if you just go by historical standards, without taking anything about our massively changing political landscape into account, Biden is poised to lose reelection.

Historically, a 50% approval rating or up is a safe reelection bet. Not too far under 50% it starts to get iffier fast. Historically, under 40% you are in deep doodoo and will lose.

Biden's approval rating just hit a low of 37%

All these people saying Biden is the smart safe choice are just wrong and they are harming the Dem party. And a big chunk of his own party's voters DON'T EVEN WANT TO SEE HIM RUNNING AGAIN!


Operating under norms you are correct. Those same norms would have disqualified any candidate criticizing a POW for being captured but here we are.