Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
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1698757307596.png

As much as I don't want it to be so.. I think the Hamas/ Israel issue will be his downfall.

He won election based on razor thin margins in Michigan, PA, WI, MN.

Well..

1698757357778.png


Take them out and Trump would have won in 2020 and very likely can in 2024.

Might be too much for Gen Z vote to make up.


Thoughts?
 
Dec 10, 2005
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Have you been hanging out too much with the other doom and gloomers here?

If people think that Republicans and Trump would have a better foreign policy re: Middle East, then those people are already lost.

Regarding margins of victory:
I'll grant that Wisconsin (~0.5% for Biden) and Pennsylvania (~1.5% for Biden) were close, Michigan and Minnesota were not "razor thin", at +3% for Biden in Michigan and +7% for Biden in Minnesota.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
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It doesn't seem like something that would make those folks vote republican. It also shouldn't be all that surprising that the U.S supports Israel since that's been policy for a very long time.
 
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Indus

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If people think that Republicans and Trump would have a better foreign policy re: Middle East, then those people are already lost.

Notice I didn't say they'd flip.. but they're just disgusted with the prospect of who they vote for backing their sworn enemy.

And I agree with you 100%.. they should come to their senses that the grass isn't greener on the other side.

But sadly if people were smart.. we'd never had ended up with Trump in the first place, would we?
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
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It is certainly reasonable to expect pushback from demographics that feel like 2nd class citizens to the party they vote for. Look at what happened in 2016, it wasn't so much people flipping, but just staying home. That gave us Trump.

The Democrats had a chance to have a primary and find a more dynamic candidate, but they pussied out. Now we have to back Biden and convince others that they must do it. Too many people think 'well duh, but Biden is so much better than the GQP' - yes that is if you think of things only intellectually and fully informed.

It's like some intellectuals forget that people also operate on emotion.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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Notice I didn't say they'd flip.. but they're just disgusted with the prospect of who they vote for backing their sworn enemy.

And I agree with you 100%.. they should come to their senses that the grass isn't greener on the other side.

But sadly if people were smart.. we'd never had ended up with Trump in the first place, would we?
Voting in the US is at minimum a form of harm reduction: people need to ask themselves who would do less harm to others. If they think withholding their vote would lead to better outcomes, they are sorely mistaken.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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It is certainly reasonable to expect pushback from demographics that feel like 2nd class citizens to the party they vote for. Look at what happened in 2016, it wasn't so much people flipping, but just staying home. That gave us Trump.

The Democrats had a chance to have a primary and find a more dynamic candidate, but they pussied out. Now we have to back Biden and convince others that they must do it. Too many people think 'well duh, but Biden is so much better than the GQP' - yes that is if you think of things only intellectually and fully informed.

It's like some intellectuals forget that people also operate on emotion.
Throwing away your incumbent advantage on a primary would be pretty politically stupid.
 
Nov 29, 2006
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Beau had a really good video, albeit long video for him, on this topic. More votes to be gotten with Jewish supporters than Muslims in the US.

 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Frustration is understandable but lol about voting for Trump over US policy towards Israel and the Muslim world generally. That's like sticking a gun in your mouth because you've got a headache.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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Throwing away your incumbent advantage on a primary would be pretty politically stupid.

Considering the state of the nation now, Biden's negatives, and a few other factors, I don't think we should just look at the 'accepted' ways to do things from the past, we are in uncharted territory here. We literally have a pro-fascist mid-stage Nazi party we are dealing with, and Biden has a lot of perceived baggage, by his own party too.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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Frustration is understandable but lol about voting for Trump over US policy towards Israel and the Muslim world generally. That's like sticking a gun in your mouth because you've got a headache.

well of course, but have you seen how people behave? people do dumb things all the time, especially when it comes to voting. we can't just think of this as a logical decision. It's emotional too. See 2016 for a recent example.
 
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K1052

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well of course, but have you seen how people behave? people do dumb things all the time, especially when it comes to voting. we can't just think of this as a logical decision. It's emotional too. See 2016 for a recent example.

In 2016 some people could at least somewhat credibly pretend that they didn't understand Trump's real policy aims or if he even had any. His presidency should disabuse any Muslims in the US what another one would mean for them and those in the Middle East.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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Considering the state of the nation now, Biden's negatives, and a few other factors, I don't think we should just look at the 'accepted' ways to do things from the past, we are in uncharted territory here. We literally have a pro-fascist mid-stage Nazi party we are dealing with, and Biden has a lot of perceived baggage, by his own party too.
The state of the nation where the economy is continuing to be recession proof, wages are growing, a number of progressive and climate forward legislation passed with extremely slim majorities, drone strikes have plummeted to almost nothing, a war was ended, and just being a no nonsense administration has been a good thing?

Many people are just living on vibes and eating a steady diet of negative polarization from their favorite media sources.

I think that if you think another Democrat could come forward at this time and not face such polarization, then I have a bridge you might be interested in purchasing.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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The state of the nation where the economy is continuing to be recession proof, wages are growing, a number of progressive and climate forward legislation passed with extremely slim majorities, drone strikes have plummeted to almost nothing, a war was ended, and just being a no nonsense administration has been a good thing?

Many people are just living on vibes and eating a steady diet of negative polarization from their favorite media sources.

I think that if you think another Democrat could come forward at this time and not face such polarization, then I have a bridge you might be interested in purchasing.

Well in reality, plenty of people make decisions based on vibes. Again, you can't just intellectualize this, politics are also a very emotional business and a perception based business.

Also the economic numbers are good, but they have never actually really measured the day to day life of the average Joe. GDP, the stock market, these metrics mostly favor the more well off people. Housing prices are worse than ever, and the cost of many goods has gone up. And Biden has extremely poor numbers. If you don't think the Democrats CAN do better than Biden, then, well, I find that sad and disagree. That doesn't say much at all for the Democratic party, in fact it says the Democratic party is a failure.
 

fskimospy

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Mar 10, 2006
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Does anyone else notice that you almost never see these types of dooming articles about Republicans? Like when Trump went all-in on backing Israel or, say, tried to ban Muslims from entering the US you never saw a 'Trump is doomed because Arab and Muslim voters will flood the polls to defeat him!'

Articles like this exist because they get clicks as:

1) Conservatives like to read news that tells them what they want to hear.
2) Liberals are neurotic and love to worry about things.

Also, if you check the polls if anything they indicate Americans want Biden to support Israel even MORE. As far as the policy merits on this go that's one thing, but from a polling perspective Biden's problem is not excessive support for Israel at this time.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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Again, the pseudo intellectuals have zero grasp about the human condition, and think they only operate on sound logic and will not make blatantly stupid life choices. I mean the foolishness is unreal.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
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If Biden loses this election its going to have to do with the economy. And nothing else.

The high cost of living is going to be the dems downfall IMO.
The issue with the “cost of living” is how productivity improvements have flowed almost exclusively to the investor class since the 1980s. Thinking any GOP administration is going to change that is delusional.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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The issue with the “cost of living” is how productivity improvements have flowed almost exclusively to the investor class since the 1980s. Thinking any GOP administration is going to change that is delusional.
The cost of living is primarily driven by the "haves" who by virtue of birth were able to buy real estate in desirable areas at affordable prices, and then close the barn door by preventing further housing development by law, leading to a huge supply crisis and exploding costs. The Federal government doesn't have too many levers to control states and their creatures (municipalities).

And given that "apartments" are often coded to mean renters, people of lower economic status, and people of color, I'm not exactly convinced that the GOP would hop on board the "let people build" train to alleviate this drag on the economy.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
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If Biden loses this election its going to have to do with the economy. And nothing else.

The high cost of living is going to be the dems downfall IMO.

Socialism can fix greedflation but you know.. we can't have nice things!
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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It is without a doubt that democratic policies will benefit the middle and lower classes if they were able to implement more im of them. That's not a question.

The problem is people either vote against their economic interests all the time. They don't just do that by voting GQP, they also do that by not voting, and in a much smaller ratio, vote third party.

The Democrats constantly fail to recognize the emotion in the voting age demographics and as we see in this thread, point to logic and reason and say, why would these people not vote Democrat? Well because people don't act logically or with reason a lot of the time. If they did, Republicans would have very little power.
 
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