2018 mid-term forecast

[Doc Savage Fan]

So what? Nobody is talking about that, as the 80k votes should have made clear.

And only a mere 73k votes would have gave Trump NH, MN, NV and ME for another 18 electoral votes and made it even more of an electoral landslide....322-209! This exercise is for those among us who love to play little games tweaking reality in a way that enables their bubble-headed rationalizations.

 

[theeedude]

Perception is sometimes reality
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/economic-optimism-soaring-helping-trump-cnbc-survey.html

Reality is also that Trump is at 35% approval when economy would indicate he should be at 60%.

 

[SlowSpyder]

All you have to do is go to Youtube, type in "Liberal meltdown Trump election" and watch (and laugh). Say what you want, but actions speak much louder than words. Watch how bewildered and shocked all the leftist pundits were on election night. The left is trying to pretend today like they didn't get blindsided by the election results, but the reality is they called the election months before it ever happened in their smugness, and here we are today with them still not being able to come to grips with reality.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

He appears not to have noticed that PA, WI and MI were the three closest states that Donald Trump won. For some reason he decided to include a state Clinton won.

Ooops...I stand corrected....Clinton did win NH. My bad.

But PA, WI and MI add up to well over 100k....not 80k.

 

[bshole]

If this is similar to other surveys I've seen it doesn't mean that much as the vast majority of the change has been from Republicans saying the economy was terrible before the election to saying it was good after it despite almost nothing changing. While Democrats also saw a change down it wasn't nearly as large as the Republican swing upwards. Shocking, I know.

Probably perception. I have been listening to conservative talk radio and they are talking like this is the best economy we have had in 20 years. Doesn't seem to match reality (seems like an average Obama year). However remember that many times optimism will sometime fuel economic growth.

There are massive expectations that the corporate giveaway will throttle up the economy. I don't think anybody is addressing the 2% tax cut on billionaires (which will have a dampening effect at best). If they had given the middle class a 2% tax cut, that would have stimulated the economy far far more. In the end, most of the middle class will get fucked. Middle class Americans in the market will profit greatly until it crashes. You are a smart guy Eski, when should I take my profits and wait for the crash? I think I am completely safe in the market for at least the next year.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

 

[soundforbjt]

All you have to do is go to Youtube, type in "Liberal meltdown Trump election" and watch (and laugh). Say what you want, but actions speak much louder than words. Watch how bewildered and shocked all the leftist pundits were on election night. The left is trying to pretend today like they didn't get blindsided by the election results, but the reality is they called the election months before it ever happened in their smugness, and here we are today with them still not being able to come to grips with reality.

Have you come to grips that trump’s approval ratings are the worst for any modern President?

 

[SlowSpyder]

Have you come to grips that trump’s approval ratings are the worst for any modern President?

Yea, the polls say he isn't doing a good job. I don't think the polls matter with this president.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

You are a smart guy Eski, when should I take my profits and wait for the crash? I think I am completely safe in the market for at least the next year.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

You're asking him for financial advice?!? Wow!

 

[umbrella39]

The funny thing is that it is the sock puppet TrumpTards that continue to obsess over Hillary. She lost over a year ago go now, get over it already.

 

[soundforbjt]

Yea, the polls say he isn't doing a good job. I don't think the polls matter with this president.

Still seeing lots of lawn signs? And it’s not polls it is the people, less than 50% in deep red Alabama support him.

 

[Jhhnn]

304-227 is an anomalous result? You don't say!

Correct. The EC & the popular vote tracked the same from 1884 until 2000. It's only gone against the popular vote 5 times in over 200 years.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Correct. The EC & the popular vote tracked the same from 1884 until 2000. It's only gone against the popular vote 5 times in over 200 years.

System is working as designed. We are country made of 50 states, each with a voice, unique cultures and laws in many cases.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Still seeing lots of lawn signs? And it’s not polls it is the people, less than 50% in deep red Alabama support him.

Yup, polls are still down on him... and he's still packing people to the rafters when he speaks, he has more FB followers than Clinton and Bernie combined, the press hangs on his every word and action. Just like 2016 all over again.

 

[fskimospy]

Probably perception. I have been listening to conservative talk radio and they are talking like this is the best economy we have had in 20 years. Doesn't seem to match reality (seems like an average Obama year). However remember that many times optimism will sometime fuel economic growth.

There are massive expectations that the corporate giveaway will throttle up the economy. I don't think anybody is addressing the 2% tax cut on billionaires (which will have a dampening effect at best). If they had given the middle class a 2% tax cut, that would have stimulated the economy far far more. In the end, most of the middle class will get fucked. Middle class Americans in the market will profit greatly until it crashes. You are a smart guy Eski, when should I take my profits and wait for the crash? I think I am completely safe in the market for at least the next year.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

As I think I've said before if I knew what the markets were going to do I would be making zillions of dollars doing that. Also, if I knew I wouldn't tell you guys, haha. I think gaming the market is a fool's errand. You are competing against people who do this professionally and who have far greater resources than you do. Your best now, as before, is to invest your money in a low fee index fund.

The biggest danger that I would try to be aware of is that the percentage of money invested passively is set to eclipse the amount of active money. If that gets too far out of whack the market may lose its ability to accurately price things and then all hell breaks loose. I have no idea what would be the smart advice in that scenario though, haha.

 

[zinfamous]

Isn't that the same site who predicted this?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

And this far out...the only person you're fooling here is yourself.

Yep, that was the most accurate polling of the year, and was extremely predictive of what actually happened. It's a shame that you don't understand how polling works.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Yep, that was the most accurate polling of the year, and was extremely predictive of what actually happened. It's a shame that you don't understand how polling works.

I understand that polling can be wrong...which is a hell of a lot more than you apparently understand.

 

[bshole]

You're asking him for financial advice?!? Wow!

He was the guy who warned me about pulling out of the market last year. He was absolutely right. So he is 1 for 1 with respect to financial advice

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

He was the guy who warned me about pulling out of the market last year. He was absolutely right. So he is 1 for 1 with respect to financial advice

Glad to hear it. I remember you being so happy when you made money during Obama's administration....hopefully it continues under this one.

 

[bshole]

As I think I've said before if I knew what the markets were going to do I would be making zillions of dollars doing that. Also, if I knew I wouldn't tell you guys, haha. I think gaming the market is a fool's errand. You are competing against people who do this professionally and who have far greater resources than you do. Your best now, as before, is to invest your money in a low fee index fund.

The biggest danger that I would try to be aware of is that the percentage of money invested passively is set to eclipse the amount of active money. If that gets too far out of whack the market may lose its ability to accurately price things and then all hell breaks loose. I have no idea what would be the smart advice in that scenario though, haha.

And I think the biggest danger is Trump borrowing money to give to billionaires, deregulating everything and creating a bubble like the 2007 bubble. Nobody can deny that we are currently in a bubble. It is blatantly obvious. We are nearing a 10 year bull market, that seems like ridiculously long time. I believe Trump and the Republicans are going to kill the economy far deader than Bush and Company. I think I have solid reasons for this belief but could it be simple partisanship? Do you think Trump will ultimately destroy the economy and the market?

 

[Jhhnn]

System is working as designed. We are country made of 50 states, each with a voice, unique cultures and laws in many cases.

So what? The EC was never designed for a radical minority to impress their will on the rest of the country. It was actually intended as a deliberative body, not a rubber stamp of states preferences. You know, to deny dangerous demagogues the Presidency.Funny how it hasn't worked out that way

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

And I think the biggest danger is Trump borrowing money to give to billionaires, deregulating everything and creating a bubble like the 2007 bubble. Nobody can deny that we are currently in a bubble. It is blatantly obvious. We are nearing a 10 year bull market, that seems like ridiculously long time. I believe Trump and the Republicans are going to kill the economy far deader than Bush and Company. I think I have solid reasons for this belief but could it be simple partisanship? Do you think Trump will ultimately destroy the economy and the market?

There will be a correction eventually....it's a normal market phenomenon.

 

[fskimospy]

Yup, polls are still down on him... and he's still packing people to the rafters when he speaks, he has more FB followers than Clinton and Bernie combined, the press hangs on his every word and action. Just like 2016 all over again.

That reminds me a lot of this:

https://www.redstate.com/diary/qsclues/2012/11/05/why-romney-will-win-and-handily/



and this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...3c7f59038d93_blog.html?utm_term=.55f0d44aebb6

Basically conservatives convinced themselves that large crowds at Romney rallies somehow meant he was going to win. They were sorely disappointed. That's why you don't rely on subjective measures like that because it's way too easy to be caught up in confirmation bias.

 

[Jhhnn]

There will be a correction eventually....it's a normal market phenomenon.

Yes, both 1929 & 2008 were market corrections, no doubt. It turns really ugly for a lot of regular Americans when things are allowed to get too far out of balance. You know, millions of people showing up & doing their jobs suddenly don't have jobs through no fault of their own, other than who they voted for. It's the same for retirees who depend on ROI for part of their income.

The mega rich ride such storms with ease. They rather seem to enjoy the excitement of gambling with the livelihoods & well being of a whole lot of other people.

 

[SlowSpyder]

That reminds me a lot of this:

https://www.redstate.com/diary/qsclues/2012/11/05/why-romney-will-win-and-handily/



and this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...3c7f59038d93_blog.html?utm_term=.55f0d44aebb6

Basically conservatives convinced themselves that large crowds at Romney rallies somehow meant he was going to win. They were sorely disappointed. That's why you don't rely on subjective measures like that because it's way too easy to be caught up in confirmation bias.

Trump is no Romney.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Yes, both 1929 & 2008 were market corrections, no doubt. It turns really ugly for a lot of regular Americans when things are allowed to get too far out of balance. You know, millions of people showing up & doing their jobs suddenly don't have jobs through no fault of their own, other than who they voted for. It's the same for retirees who depend on ROI for part of their income.

The mega rich ride such storms with ease. They rather seem to enjoy the excitement of gambling with the livelihoods & well being of a whole lot of other people.

ROI's were good under Obama and awesome under Trump so far. And I'm talking about normal market behavior, not the apocalypse.