2018 mid-term forecast

[SlowSpyder]

Do you have reasons for this logic? In off years, the party out of power almost always does better. So, if history is a guide, Democrats will do well in 2018.

But, we don't need distant history as a guide, we can go off of elections the last few months. In all of the 7 national special elections this year. Democrats have done between 3% and 30% better than they did in the last presidential elections (More lost a seat in an area that Trump won by 28%!) But it isn't just Moore, all 7 special elections had Democrats up more than expected. The average was a 16% boost, not a small number, but a full 16% more than expected from past elections. There wasn't a single election this year where Republicans outperformed.

What will turn that trend back to Republicans?

Just a gut feeling. I could be wrong, but my guess is Repubs will do alright.

 

[fskimospy]

Do you have reasons for this logic? In off years, the party out of power almost always does better. So, if history is a guide, Democrats will do well in 2018.

But, we don't need distant history as a guide, we can go off of elections the last few months. In all of the 7 national special elections this year. Democrats have done between 3% and 30% better than they did in the last presidential elections (More lost a seat in an area that Trump won by 28%!) But it isn't just Moore, all 7 special elections had Democrats up more than expected. The average was a 16% boost, not a small number, but a full 16% more than expected from past elections. There wasn't a single election this year where Republicans outperformed.

What will turn that trend back to Republicans?

You have to remember you're talking to a guy who thinks that he can more accurately predict election results than Nate Silver by driving around town and counting yard signs. This is not a joke.

 

[dullard]

You have to remember you're talking to a guy who thinks that he can more accurately predict election results than Nate Silver by driving around town and counting yard signs. This is not a joke.

He certainly won't do better than Nate Silver that way, but I honestly think public support levels are reflective in yard signs. So, I wouldn't ignore them either.

As an independent, I can somewhat understand Democrats. They have logic, although it is sometimes based on false assumptions. But, I have to keep asking Republicans about their logic (if there is any), as I can never seem to understand what makes them tick. In this case, there appears to be no logic, just a "gut feeling".

 

[bshole]

Meh. The stock market & real estate prices were booming in 2016. They were also booming in 2006 when Dems took back the HOR & the Senate.

The welfare of the American people in general is increasingly divorced from the fortunes of the movers & shakers of the financial realm. There is no trickle down & everybody knows it other than GOP politicos.

I certainly hope that Democrats can take over in next election so they can block more damage. We will see.

I know a lot of people at my work (including myself) have seen a tremendous growth in the value of their 401ks in the last year (+30%). For those with moderate (50k+) to substantial (500k+) retirement investments this may be coloring their perceptions of the Trumpocracy.

 

[fskimospy]

He certainly won't do better than Nate Silver that way, but I honestly think public support levels are reflective in yard signs. So, I wouldn't ignore them either.

As an independent, I can somewhat understand Democrats. They have logic, although it is sometimes based on false assumptions. But, I have to keep asking Republicans about their logic (if there is any), as I can never seem to understand what makes them tick. In this case, there appears to be no logic, just a "gut feeling".

I absolutely think you could get a measure of enthusiasm from yard signs but you would have to collect that data in a comprehensive way and it would probably take a good bit of work to figure out how to account for it in a model. Driving around town looking at them out of your car window isn't doing either of those things.

What we have here is an example of motivated reasoning I think. If people want something to be true they are usually good at finding a way for it to be true. This is something that's present in everyone, regardless of political persuasion, however American conservatives in the last 20 years or so have largely abandoned the sorts of intellectual checks that limit this kind of behavior so they seem to be affected more strongly by it.

 

[theeedude]

He certainly won't do better than Nate Silver that way, but I honestly think public support levels are reflective in yard signs. So, I wouldn't ignore them either.

As an independent, I can somewhat understand Democrats. They have logic, although it is sometimes based on false assumptions. But, I have to keep asking Republicans about their logic (if there is any), as I can never seem to understand what makes them tick. In this case, there appears to be no logic, just a "gut feeling".

Republican logic is very simple. Screw the voters, do everything for the donors. Then use donor money to brainwash tge voters it's for their own good.

 

[Commodus]

Just a gut feeling. I could be wrong, but my guess is Repubs will do alright.

You kinda need more than that, especially since recent results fly in the face of that gut feeling. Remember how Democrat supporters were sure Clinton would win because no one would choose the inexperienced, hateful narcissist on the other side? Hell, remember how many on both sides here were convinced Moore would win Alabama in spite of his being a pedophile? This doesn't mean the Dems will sweep back into power, but the hard data suggests opposition to Trump is real and mounting.

 

[dullard]

Republican logic is very simple. Screw the voters, do everything for the donors. Then use donor money to brainwash tge voters it's for their own good.

That is Republican donor logic. I can't understand the Republican voters that go along with it, year after year after year.

 

[theeedude]

That is Republican donor logic. I can't understand the Republican voters that go along with it, year after year after year.

Simple people fall for simple lies.

 

[Commodus]

That is Republican donor logic. I can't understand the Republican voters that go along with it, year after year after year.

At least some of it stems from their voters' belief that the Repubilcans' deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy are necessary because they, too, will be wealthy one day. It's easier to imagine that you'll eventually be an executive than to admit that you'll probably be stuck in your existing social class for the rest of your life, and that tax cuts for the rich are just theft on a grand scale.

 

[fskimospy]

At least some of it stems from their voters' belief that the Repubilcans' deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy are necessary because they, too, will be wealthy one day. It's easier to imagine that you'll eventually be an executive than to admit that you'll probably be stuck in your existing social class for the rest of your life, and that tax cuts for the rich are just theft on a grand scale.

I think the easiest answer is tribal identity.

 

[repoman0]

Simple people fall for simple lies.

Just about sums it up.

 

[dullard]

At least some of it stems from their voters' belief that the Repubilcans' deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy are necessary because they, too, will be wealthy one day. It's easier to imagine that you'll eventually be an executive than to admit that you'll probably be stuck in your existing social class for the rest of your life, and that tax cuts for the rich are just theft on a grand scale.

There is a grain of truth there, but it just doesn't make sense to focus on a future that you won't have than to focus on making sure that you have that future.

I think the easiest answer is tribal identity.

You are correct there that we have this terrible tendency towards tribal identity. But I can't understand a person having tribal identity with say both Reagan (increased taxes 11 times, made abortion easier to obtain, amnesty for illegals) and the current Republican party (the exact opposite). Yet those who vote for the current Republican party so often cite Reagan as one of the best presidents. That is where I just can't follow the logic.

I admit that I have no emotional ability, so I don't have emotional attachments to things like tribal identity. So it is a foreign concept to me.

 

[Commodus]

I think the easiest answer is tribal identity.

That's certainly part of it. I was more floating one of the reasons than declaring that to be the reason, really.

 

[fskimospy]

There is a grain of truth there, but it just doesn't make sense to focus on a future that you won't have than to focus on making sure that you have that future.

You are correct there that we have this terrible tendency towards tribal identity. But I can't understand a person having tribal identity with say both Reagan (increased taxes 11 times, made abortion easier to obtain, amnesty for illegals) and the current Republican party (the exact opposite). Yet those who vote for the current Republican party so often cite Reagan as one of the best presidents. That is where I just can't follow the logic.

I admit that I have no emotional ability, so I don't have emotional attachments to things like tribal identity. So it is a foreign concept to me.

I think the basis of tribal identity is that policy doesn't factor into it, it's what the tribe supports. In reality I think few Americans actually care about policy much at all. It's why Republicans could be vehemently against Obama bombing Syria and then totally for Trump bombing Syria or how the Republicans turned against free trade when Trump took over. If you think of American political thought this way: voter --> person/party --> policy instead of this way: voter --> policy --> person/party I think it all makes sense. You would THINK that people chose parties based on their policy preferences but it seems to be the other way around.

 

[Jhhnn]

That is Republican donor logic. I can't understand the Republican voters that go along with it, year after year after year.

It's all about a whole different set of highly emotional issues- the usual- God, guns, gays, trans, abortion, terrarists, race, welfare moochers, immigration & the generalized notion that smaller gubmint means more freedumb.

Repubs have to pass their tax fraud before the campaign season begins so they can return to all of that.

 

[hal2kilo]

In the eight years obama was president, democrats lost over 1,000 state seats, both houses and the presidency.

Before Trump was elected, which I predicted, main stream media waged an all out war on him. This war continues in earnest.

Between January - November 2018 will be critical for the GOP. If they play their cards right, democrats will be handed another crushing defeat. However, main stream media will be hastily at work playing on the fears of the public.

Regardless of what mainstream media does, money talks.

If:

The economy continues to climb,

Unemployment reaches historical lows,

FBI is brought to heel for their crimes,

ISIS is crushed,

Dreamers given citizenship.... and a few other things.

The Democrat party will be on their way to being extinct. They have nobody who can touch Trump. The DNC leaders are old and out of touch. Chances are the democrat party will splinter before November 2018. Nancy and her gang are no longer progressive enough for the younger generation.

Going to leave this here and come back in November 2018 and see how many things were true.

I see the looser is back, spreading the usual fertilizer.

 

[Commodus]

There is a grain of truth there, but it just doesn't make sense to focus on a future that you won't have than to focus on making sure that you have that future.

Well, no one said it makes sense. It's the same reason some people buy lottery tickets sincerely hoping they'll win: they want to believe that something will lift them out of a mediocre existence. Few people want to admit that they're likely going to stay in their social class until they die, and that the best chance at a better life is to improve your own conditions.

 

[SlowSpyder]

He certainly won't do better than Nate Silver that way, but I honestly think public support levels are reflective in yard signs. So, I wouldn't ignore them either.

As an independent, I can somewhat understand Democrats. They have logic, although it is sometimes based on false assumptions. But, I have to keep asking Republicans about their logic (if there is any), as I can never seem to understand what makes them tick. In this case, there appears to be no logic, just a "gut feeling".

Thank you. My comments are being taken out of context a bit by fskimopsy. I was talking about how Trump, I felt, had a very organic ground game and lots of public support despite what many media outlets said and polls suggested. I recall a video I saw where a pundit that had suggested Hillary would win and was looking at what went wrong after the election said something to the effect of, "we put too much faith in the poll numbers and didn't pay attention to yard signs." That is what my commentary about yard signs meant. Polls may have their usefulness, but there is more to the complete picture than them alone.

 

[Commodus]

Thank you. My comments are being taken out of context a bit by fskimopsy. I was talking about how Trump, I felt, had a very organic ground game and lots of public support despite what many media outlets said and polls suggested. I recall a video I saw where a pundit that had suggested Hillary would win and was looking at what went wrong after the election said something to the effect of, "we put too much faith in the poll numbers and didn't pay attention to yard signs." That is what my commentary about yard signs meant. Polls may have their usefulness, but there is more to the complete picture than them alone.

I wanted to revive this thread by noting that there's a degree of truth to this. Polls don't tell you everything. The point, however, is to not outright dismiss polls like some in the Trump camp do. They can definitely indicate overall sentiment and trends. If most polls show Trump at consistently low approval ratings, and they do, that's definitely going to have an effect on voting. And when you combine that with actual voting results? Damn straight the Republicans should be worried.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Can the republitards field anybody who hasn't groped someone or fondled a child?

 

[jmagg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KnrX3eEFSc

 

[kage69]

My guess is still that the 2018 elections will be epic, as savage a midterm beat down we've ever seen, possibly the most humiliating. 'Losing Alabama' humiliating, on steroids and salvia. I think the worst president we've ever seen is going to illicit a strong rebuke from a greatly boosted voter pool. Dems will take the House.

Dump and his admin are pariahs, they've become synonymous with corruption, hate and greed yet have also upheld the GOP distinction of hypocrisy. Alt-right populism is a figment of the imagination, garnished with give aways to the corporations and the donor class. Let's not forget all things from Russia with love. Getting out of the PCA, then republicans getting rid of net neutrality? It's like they're trying to lose. Unbelievable in so many ways.

Hang on to your butts banana republicans, a lot of you are going to get flushed.

 

[Moonbeam]

There is a grain of truth there, but it just doesn't make sense to focus on a future that you won't have than to focus on making sure that you have that future.

You are correct there that we have this terrible tendency towards tribal identity. But I can't understand a person having tribal identity with say both Reagan (increased taxes 11 times, made abortion easier to obtain, amnesty for illegals) and the current Republican party (the exact opposite). Yet those who vote for the current Republican party so often cite Reagan as one of the best presidents. That is where I just can't follow the logic.

I admit that I have no emotional ability, so I don't have emotional attachments to things like tribal identity. So it is a foreign concept to me.

I also am never very satisfied with the common descriptions of what makes conservatives tick. I see them described in stereotypes, applicable, yes, but not indicative of what is important to me, motivation, What makes conservatives tribal. Why do they form a collective of us against them. We are all the same so why is difference so important to them.

I believe this will remain a mystification to the bulk of humanity for a very long time because, again of motivation. to really understand the answer you would have to face facts that are very unpleasant, in fact, the last thing anybody wants to know.

And what is that fact. The reality, sorry to say, is that everybody on earth feels like he or she is the worst person in the world. How unlikely could that be? How absurd. But just for a minute imagine if it were true. How could we have gotten to feel that way. Imagine that before we could reason or logically defend against absurd notions, as helpless innocent, and totally dependent children, we were conditioned by fear of withdrawal of support, both emotional and physical, we were programmed to conform by the notion that not to do so would make us evil, that all those times when our behavior had to be brought back to some fictitious and imaginary 'proper norm' we were told we had been worthless to stray from that path. Can you see that this might produce a strong motivation to conform to a group identity, that to break away from the pack would be a death sentence?

Conservatives are just the worst end of a bad situation. We do not understand them because they are us. We do not want to see our own conditioning. People divide into partisan groups to deflect self hate onto the other. The more one group hates another them more that hate is returned. And here we are.

 

[Moonbeam]

My guess is still that the 2018 elections will be epic, as savage a midterm beat down we've ever seen, possibly the most humiliating. 'Losing Alabama' humiliating, on steroids and salvia. I think the worst president we've ever seen is going to illicit a strong rebuke from a greatly boosted voter pool. Dems will take the House.

Dump and his admin are pariahs, they've become synonymous with corruption, hate and greed yet have also upheld the GOP distinction of hypocrisy. Alt-right populism is a figment of the imagination, garnished with give aways to the corporations and the donor class. Let's not forget all things from Russia with love. Getting out of the PCA, then republicans getting rid of net neutrality? It's like they're trying to lose. Unbelievable in so many ways.

Hang on to your butts banana republicans, a lot of you are going to get flushed.

That is their unconscious wish. Self destruction. They will not remember what happened to them so they recreate the experience vicariously.