2015 NFL draft and offseason thread: How will the Browns screw up this year?

[manimal]

NDT esplains the NFL

 

[KMFJD]

Bills need this guy back

Kyle Orton reporting for Bears training camp as a rookie

 

[lupi]

Just watched the B.B. preseer, no way should the league every fine lynch again after those tottally off question answers. May as well not answered.

 

[smackababy]

Here is an interesting question: is this Seattle's final year to make the SB with their current team? They have, I think 8, starters in their final contract year and it looks like a few who just extended or signed contracts aren't happy (Kam is threatening to miss training camp).

 

[lupi]

Most likely given the the QB gonna take a mjor cut from the defense next year. You can count lynch on being gone for sure.

 

[Jimzz]

Here is an interesting question: is this Seattle's final year to make the SB with their current team? They have, I think 8, starters in their final contract year and it looks like a few who just extended or signed contracts aren't happy (Kam is threatening to miss training camp).

Yea Wilson alone will pull in at least 20% of the cap space if they keep him. So will have to make some choices. If they stay competitive after this year that will be the true test of the coaches and management.

 

[manimal]

Here is an interesting question: is this Seattle's final year to make the SB with their current team? They have, I think 8, starters in their final contract year and it looks like a few who just extended or signed contracts aren't happy (Kam is threatening to miss training camp).

they had the sweetheart rookie contract for Wilson to get some guys payed up front and now they are already pissed and want more. No surprise all these guys only have so many years to make money and they all want to be revis..

Stars are more trouble than they are worth when they start to cancer a team. I have a feeling the team should have walked away from beastmode and signed one of the FAs this year.

 

[Ban Bot]

Here is an interesting question: is this Seattle's final year to make the SB with their current team? They have, I think 8, starters in their final contract year and it looks like a few who just extended or signed contracts aren't happy (Kam is threatening to miss training camp).

Interesting question. Not all starters are of similar value. So let's look at what those lost starters will be.

Cap Situation: 2016 Seattle has $115mm in contracts. 2017 $105mm. This includes all the big names -- Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Carry Williams (free agent), Bennett, Avril, KJ Wright, Lynch, Graham, etc.

Cap estimates are $155mm in 2016, $165mm in 2017. So Seattle will have to fit everyone under / pay their own / sign free agents $40mm for 2016 and $60mm in 2017.

The reality is they cannot keep everyone. At some point you need to replace quality starters who are worth $4mm-$7mm with cheaper talent. They did that with LG Carpenter and WR Tate and will almost certainly do that with OLB Bruce Irvin.

2017 Does NOT include these notable starters:

(OFF) QB Wilson, Baldwin, Kearse, or OL Okung, Sweezy, or Bailey.

(DEF) MLB Wagner, OLB Irvin, DT Mebane, DT Hill.

So can they fit all these guys in? Irvin and Mebane are gone IMO. Kearse, too and maybe Baldwin. Sweezy has played too well to keep (his replacement is now on the roster). Okung, if not healthy or wanting too much, is gone.

But Seattle will also have to figure out are they keeping TE Willson, RB Michael, CB Simon, CB Lane, etc. on top of Wilson and Wagner plus an eye toward their young guys: WR Richardson, WR Lockett, RT Britt, DT Hill, etc.

Looking at the players I will denote contract as 'YY (so if the contract ends 2015, written as '15)

OFFENSE:

QB: Wilson - '15, can be franchised 16, 17
RB: Lynch - '17* / Turban - '15 / CMike - '16
FB: Coleman - '17
TE: Graham - '17 / Willson - '17
WR: Baldwin - '16 / Kearse - '15 / Richardson - '17 / Matthews - '17 / Norwood - '17 / Tyler Lockett (R) - '18
OL: RT Britt - '17 / LT Okung - '15 / RG Sweezy - '15 / LG Bailey - '16 / C Lewis - '17 + 3 rookies and other young backups

Lynch is an odd one. If they cut him after '15 he has a $5mm cap hit. But if he is on the roster in '16 his cap is $11.5mm. If he is a stud in 2015 they will keep him and he gets a $9mm base plus $2.5mm prorated bonus. That should keep him happy. Cutting him ($5mm) plus replacing him ($4mm?) only saves $2.5mm which may not be worth moving on if he is playing well. In 2017 he has a roster bonus of $3mm. If cut a $2.5mm cap penalty. The base is $7mm with a $12.5mm cap hit -- very unlikely they will keep him at that number as the cost to cut ($2.5mm) and to sign someone else ($4mm?) will a lot cheaper.

DEFENSE:

DT: Mebane - '15 / Bennett - '17 / Hill - '16 / Rubin (FA) - '15 / McDaniel - 15
DE: Avril - '18 / Marsh - '17 / Clark (R) - '18
OLB: Wright - '18 / Irvin - '15 / KP Lewis - '17
MLB: Wagner - '15
CB: Sherman - '18 / Williams (FA) - '17 / Lane - '15 / Simon - '16 / Burley - '17 + young guys
S: Thomas - '17 / Chancellor - '17

The Carry Williams signing was driven by injuries. They may like Williams but not at the $7mm guaranteed they are paying him. The contract is constructed 3 year $18mm and designed to cut him after this year with a $2.4mm hit. With Sherman, Simon, and Lane all injured at CB and losing Byron Maxwell (2014) and Browner (2013) the cornerback factory hit a snag. That is $7mm I am confident they wanted to spend elsewhere as they have tried to save big money by producing their own DBs.

Just as important as when contracts end is when they were signed. Someone who signed in 2012 (like Lynch last year before the rework) or Chancellor in 2013 have more basis for holding out than someone like Bennett who signed in 2014!

Before '10: Okung (R)

Before '11: Mebane

Before '13: Chancellor

Before '14: Bennett, Graham (Saints), Thomas, Sherman, Baldwin, McDaniel

Before '15: Avril, Wright, Lynch, (FA) Williams


Summary: Assuming Wilson and Wagner are signed Seattle is not primed to lose anyone significant in 2016 or 2017.

The biggest losses will be:

Okung -- Huge loss as he is a Top 10 LT. When he plays healthy. The problem is he isn't healthy often (only 2012 which ironically was Wilson's best year in the pocket!) and worse often cannot play. He is below average when he plays hurt. Seattle needs to replace him but then again they are paying big money for someone who is always hurt.

Irvin -- Drafted to be a speed DE but instead got a solid Sam LB. They didn't give him a 5th year option because they didn't see paying $7mm for a good Sam who doesn't get to the QB often. He is VERY talented but Wagner is a fantastic MLB who can play in Nickel and Dime. Wright is also good in coverage. I would love to keep Irvin but it looks like they chose Wright (I would have chosen Irvin personally) because he is good in coverage and can play solid MLB if Wagner is hurt. Plus KP Lewis is a young playmaker who can fill the Irvin void.

Mebane -- Mebane is getting older (30) and Seattle tends to walk away from such. It hurt losing him as he is good against the run but offers nothing against the pass anymore. Coming off a serious injury. Seattle saw Kam and Wagner are more important to run stopping than Mebane. Big, experienced interior run stoppers can be had on the cheap in the off season. Look for Seattle to keep Hill (young with some pass rush skills) and sign another Rubin-type player. See: Seattle cutting Clemons, Red Bryant.

Sweezy -- Outplayed his value. Seattle likes young, athletic, CHEAP lineman for Cable's zone scheme. Sweezy is a converted DT who is finally worth playing. Better than Carpenter (lost after 2014) or Giacomini (lost after 2013), both who the Jets are paying about $4.5mm year, Seattle won't pay $4mm+ for Sweezy. They drafted obvious replacements for both Guards and Center.

Kearse -- He is cheap this year at just over $2mm for the tender. But his blocking is inconsistent (high effort guy who makes mistakes) and his hands are very inconsistent. Will make circus catches / highlight plays (2013 NFCCG, 2013 SB, 2014 NFC Div, 2014 NFCCG, 2014 SB) but regularly has killer drops, misses tackles, and makes mistakes. He dropped a game killing pass from Wilson in the 4th quarter of the SB (up 10 the huge big first down deep into NE territory would have changed the game completely), he had poor technique on Browner which allowed Butler to make a break for the ball, he let 2 balls bounce UP off his hands in the NFCCG against GB that lead to INTs and then failed to make a play on a ball caught in the wind, allowing the defender to get the INT (Lockette was in a similar situation against Denver and was smart--took the PI on Talib to prevent the turnover--Kearse just lacks in this area). He isn't quick, his routes are only OK, and he fails to get separation.

In short: he is a great #4, ok #3, should be no ones #2. He is solid on special teams as a gunner. There is a chance he won't make the 2015 Hawks. Matthews is being given the chance to start. Rookie Tyler Lockett is a Baldwin clone but with better routes and quicks (looks like a physical copy of... gulp... Antonio Brown! ... I can only hope he is 1/2 as good). Norwood, in his second year, has WAY better hands and if healthy is a bigger, faster, better route runner. If Richardson, if he can get healthy from the ACL, has fantastic hands, good route running, top tier speed (before injury), can return, and is quick. Seattle can use Kearse in 2015 but he won't be missed in 2016.

Lane -- Seattle is thin at Nickel Corner. But they are bolstering the position. They drafted Tye Smith, traded for Burley last year, picked up 30yo Will Blackman, and have Sherman / Williams / Simon on the outside. Lane, while a good slot corner, has a history of being hurt. And just like Walter Thurmond before him, Seattle is grooming his replacement and won't pay big to keep him.

TL;DR.

They will keep most of their core in 2015. They need to shore up Center with the Unger trade and ensure Nickel corner is fixed.

2016 if they sign Wilson and Wagner it is more of an issue of who to keep / finding replacements for WR Kearse, RG Sweezy, NCB Lane, and DT Mebane. Good players but replacable / signable. The big problems are LT Okung and OLB Irvin. Irvin @ current production has a replacement on the team and Okung is always hurt. Seattle has 2015 and the 2016 offseason (draft, free agency, develop internal talent) to find answers.

For 2017 they have quality young starters / contributors they need to replace / resign (Hill, Simon, Bailey) but no major starters lost except WR Baldwin. Personally I think we will see Richardson, Norwood, Lockett, and maybe Matthews step up + TE Graham and Willson to fill the void.

Lynch may be gone in 2017 -- now THAT is a problem. He cannot be replaced. Hopefully CMike is ready. If not Seattle will be hunting for a Stud #1 RB.

Personally, I think Seattle's roster is very solidly set for 3 seasons (2015, '16, '17) and 2018 is so far out who cares because there are so many unknowns that far out.

The window is not closing ...

unless ...

Every player like Bennett, Irvin, Chancellor, etc. holds out for more $$$$

Seattle can have them all under contract but cannot pay them all what they are worth. Kam has a good case -- multiple pro bowls, 2nd team All Pro 2 years in a row, and clearly an important cog getting high end kicker money. He signed 2 1/2 years ago and has 3 seasons left.

Bennett, who said he took a little less to be with a winner, whining about more money 1 season later? Yeah, Seattle needs to keep those guys OFF their roster because they need players willing to fit in payroll to keep a winner. They cannot get guys under contract only for them to complain. Sign elsewhere but don't "take one for the team" and then demand more money. I get it when players hold out due to performance / bad contracts, but not when the contract was parity at the time, 1 year old, and you supposedly signed to be with a winner and gave up more money.

THAT could be Seattle's undoing.

 

[Ban Bot]

Yea Wilson alone will pull in at least 20% of the cap space if they keep him. So will have to make some choices. If they stay competitive after this year that will be the true test of the coaches and management.

Wrong.

Based on their past contract structures and guarantees Seattle has enough to sign Wilson and Wagner this year and to absorb $25mm-$30mm annually for 2016 and 17 for both + have cap space to work with.

And in a crunch they can cut/restructure Mebane, McDaniels, and a couple other players.

I have no clue where you are getting numbers from. Even if Wilson signs a $25mm/year "new money" contract starting in 2016 he will only account for ~ $20mm/year on the cap (as the bonus would be partially prorated to 2015 with his $1.5mm base).

The cap next year will be over $150mm.

That is 13%

By 2017 I would bet it would be at or under 10% as the cap is growing quickly the next couple years.

I have no clue where you read "at least 20%" but I strongly urge you to read a more reliable source (overthecap, Fieldgulls, etc)

 

[smackababy]

I think 20% is a bit much, Wilson is going to be a $21mm+ hit in 2016.

 

[Imported]

Seattle shouldn't have caved when Lynch wanted more money. Set a bad precedent for the FO IMO.

 

[Ban Bot]

I think 20% is a bit much, Wilson is going to be a $21mm+ hit in 2016.

That will be a huge budgetary change for Seattle, agreed.

But $21mm in 2016 isn't bad based on who they have to resign (see above).

$115mm currently scheduled against the 2016 cap.

Cap will be ~ $155mm

That means there is $40mm to fit:

# Wilson ($21mm)

# Wagner ($9mm)

# $10mm for FA, resign Free Agents LT Okung, OLB Irvin, DT Mebane, RG Sweezy, WR Kearse, Nickel CB Lane.

That is before any roster cuts or contract restructuring. Not to mention they could backload Wilson. Assuming a $25mm bonus for a 4 year extension spread over 5 years and (4 year $88mm = $22mm per for 2016-2019; $25mm bonus = $16mm base each year and $5mm prorated bonus each year)

2016 $15mm cap hit ($10mm base, $5mm bonus)
2017 $20mm cap hit ($15mm base, $5mm bonus)
2018 $21mm cap hit ($16mm base, $5mm bonus)
2019 $27mm cap hit ($22mm base, $5mm bonus)

And $5mm would be added to 2015's cap as a prorated portion of the bonus.

Basically his cap number can grow with the cap -- a big Wilson contract isn't a killer just because.

 

[manimal]

Seattle shouldn't have caved when Lynch wanted more money. Set a bad precedent for the FO IMO.

yup

 

[Imported]

Didn't Wilson already reject a $21mil/yr deal? He's aiming for $25mil/yr with a huge chunk guaranteed from everything I've read.

 

[lupi]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jets-suspended-richardson-im-not-dope-fiend-220758335--nfl.html

 

[Imported]

Well apparently Wilson signed an extension. 4 years for around 88mil and 60ish guaranteed.

 

[Ban Bot]

Well apparently Wilson signed an extension. 4 years for around 88mil and 60ish guaranteed.

Yeah, I heard 4 years, $21mm bonus, $21.9mm/yr (about $87.6mm), $60mm in guaranteed.

To go back yesterday I explained how this contract would NOT be a killer to Seattle's cap. I used $88mm and a $25mm bonus. I don't think his contract is structured exactly like this but it will be close.

That will be a huge budgetary change for Seattle, agreed.

But $21mm in 2016 isn't bad based on who they have to resign (see above).

$115mm currently scheduled against the 2016 cap.

Cap will be ~ $155mm

That means there is $40mm to fit:

# Wilson ($21mm)

# Wagner ($9mm)

# $10mm for FA, resign Free Agents LT Okung, OLB Irvin, DT Mebane, RG Sweezy, WR Kearse, Nickel CB Lane.

That is before any roster cuts or contract restructuring. Not to mention they could backload Wilson. Assuming a $25mm bonus for a 4 year extension spread over 5 years and (4 year $88mm = $22mm per for 2016-2019; $25mm bonus = $16mm base each year and $5mm prorated bonus each year)

2016 $15mm cap hit ($10mm base, $5mm bonus)
2017 $20mm cap hit ($15mm base, $5mm bonus)
2018 $21mm cap hit ($16mm base, $5mm bonus)
2019 $27mm cap hit ($22mm base, $5mm bonus)

And $5mm would be added to 2015's cap as a prorated portion of the bonus.

Basically his cap number can grow with the cap -- a big Wilson contract isn't a killer just because.

I was pretty close

Prediction vs Reality
Length: 4 years vs 4 years
Amount: $88mm vs $87.6mm
Bonus: $25mm vs $21mm

I would have guessed $57mm in guarantees as $60mm essentially makes most of the first 3 years guaranteed.

 

[smackababy]

I knew Wilson would get an extension at some point. Seattle won't let him enter free agency. Honestly, I thought it would be closer to $25 mil per year. I figured around $23 mil would be where he landed.

I can't think of any recent QB that deserves it more.

 

[Retro Rob]

I knew Wilson would get an extension at some point. Seattle won't let him enter free agency. Honestly, I thought it would be closer to $25 mil per year. I figured around $23 mil would be where he landed.

I can't think of any recent QB that deserves it more.

God told him to pass on the 120 Million dollar offer, Smack!

 

[Retro Rob]

I

I can't think of any recent QB that deserves it more.

Probably Aaron Rogers (though I know he got his deal already). Heck, had Rogers been healthy, Seattle would have not made the Superbowl.

 

[Ban Bot]

I knew Wilson would get an extension at some point. Seattle won't let him enter free agency. Honestly, I thought it would be closer to $25 mil per year. I figured around $23 mil would be where he landed.

I can't think of any recent QB that deserves it more.

EDIT: TL;DR version: Wilson is still getting shafted by his rookie deal, which is at the core of what the problem was. e.g. Cam Newton's deal vs. Russell Wilson's deal:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

Wilson new deal, while larger in annual "new value" is less PER YEAR because his 2015 salary of $1.5mm is not going to be radically changed. Cam benefits from a MUCH higher starting point for his final rookie year deal ($14.7mm). Even if not for a 5th year option Cam Newton had a $7mm 4th year baseline to start instead of $1.5mm like Wilson.

--

It is hard to grasp for most of us (I am not part of the Anandtech 7-figure salary club... or 6 figure!) but Wilson is still getting shafted compared by the CBA / Rookie contract.

In a nutshell: He signed an extension. His 4th year rookie contract @ $1.5mm is still in place. His new money amount is $88mm but his 5 year is $17.9mm. This is a LOT LESS than Rodgers... and even Cam Newton.

Looking at Cam:

Rookie Deal: 4 year, $22mm total; 5th year option of $14.7mm

Y1: $4mm
Y2: $5mm
Y3: $6mm
Y4: $7mm
Y5: $14.7mm (2015, 5th year option)

His new contract is a 5 year extension but part of 2015 is turned into guarantees/bonus. The new deal is 5 years, $103.8mm, $22.5mm bonus.

Y0: $13mm (2015)
Y1: $19.5mm
Y2: $20.2mm
Y3: $21.5mm
Y4: $23.2mm
Y5: $21.1mm

His new contract average is $20.76mm/yr.

But looking at the 6 year window, including 2015 (Y0), since the base Y0 is higher from the rookie deal (5th year option) Cam makes $118.5mm which over 6 years has an APY of $19.75mm

TL;DR:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

The only saving grace for Wilson's contract is he is back on the market 2 years earlier and with the rising cap in position to get 1 last huge contract.

Wilson over 8 years will make $91mm ($3mm first 4 years, $88 second 4 years).

To compare Newton who will make $100.7mm over his first 8 years ($22mm first 4 years, $78.7mm second 4 years).

 

[Retro Rob]

EDIT: TL;DR version: Wilson is still getting shafted by his rookie deal, which is at the core of what the problem was. e.g. Cam Newton's deal vs. Russell Wilson's deal:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

Wilson new deal, while larger in annual "new value" is less PER YEAR because his 2015 salary of $1.5mm is not going to be radically changed. Cam benefits from a MUCH higher starting point for his final rookie year deal ($14.7mm). Even if not for a 5th year option Cam Newton had a $7mm 4th year baseline to start instead of $1.5mm like Wilson.

--

It is hard to grasp for most of us (I am not part of the Anandtech 7-figure salary club... or 6 figure!) but Wilson is still getting shafted compared by the CBA / Rookie contract.

In a nutshell: He signed an extension. His 4th year rookie contract @ $1.5mm is still in place. His new money amount is $88mm but his 5 year is $17.9mm. This is a LOT LESS than Rodgers... and even Cam Newton.

Looking at Cam:

Rookie Deal: 4 year, $22mm total; 5th year option of $14.7mm

Y1: $4mm
Y2: $5mm
Y3: $6mm
Y4: $7mm
Y5: $14.7mm (2015, 5th year option)

His new contract is a 5 year extension but part of 2015 is turned into guarantees/bonus. The new deal is 5 years, $103.8mm, $22.5mm bonus.

Y0: $13mm (2015)
Y1: $19.5mm
Y2: $20.2mm
Y3: $21.5mm
Y4: $23.2mm
Y5: $21.1mm

His new contract average is $20.76mm/yr.

But looking at the 6 year window, including 2015 (Y0), since the base Y0 is higher from the rookie deal (5th year option) Cam makes $118.5mm which over 6 years has an APY of $19.75mm

TL;DR:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

The only saving grace for Wilson's contract is he is back on the market 2 years earlier and with the rising cap in position to get 1 last huge contract.

Wilson over 8 years will make $91mm ($3mm first 4 years, $88 second 4 years).

To compare Newton who will make $100.7mm over his first 8 years ($22mm first 4 years, $78.7mm second 4 years).

Eh,

I just don't get the motivation behind breaking down just how rich, rich people are compared to other rich people, and how one rich guy got "shafted" because he's making a less than another rich guy.

Bottom line: $88 Million dollars is an insane amount of money, raking in 17 Million (which averages to a little over $1 Million per week for 16 weeks) per year is crazy.

They're all rich, and will stay that way as long as they're playing.

If Wilson's getting "shafted", he's more than welcome to tear up his contract.....

 

[Imported]

Wilson is gonna hit the market again at 30. If all goes well, he'll be one of the most paid QBs at that time (though screw that, I hope he fails miserably now ).

 

[Retro Rob]

Here is an interesting question: is this Seattle's final year to make the SB with their current team? They have, I think 8, starters in their final contract year and it looks like a few who just extended or signed contracts aren't happy (Kam is threatening to miss training camp).

They actually shouldn't have made the SB last season.

 

[Ban Bot]

They actually shouldn't have made the SB last season.

I would be curious for a football break down why you say that.

I can only assume you are talking about the NFCCG as Seattle fairly made the playoffs by a solid margin (12-4) and destroyed Carolina in the divisional round.

Seattle was the better team in the NFC Championship game.

I have read a lot of articles on both sides and watched the game and my conclusion is it is really sour grapes among Green Bay fans and Seattle haters (9er).

The bottom line is Seattle's defense was fantastic and Seattle was giving the game away but Green Bay never took it and once Seattle's offense literally stopped giving the ball away (5x!) Green Bay was toast.

Seattle's defense stopped Green Bay's offense dead.

Seattle's offense stopped Seattle's offense--Green Bay's defense rolled over like a dead dog.

There is a thorough article addressing this issue. Seattle, not Green Bay, was the team giving away the game. Seattle could take the game away at the end because they had played well (sans turnovers) and every time Seattle shot themselves in the foot the defense – you know, the other side of the ball that is 50% of the game – kicked GB’s butt. Once Kearse stopping popping balls up in the air and Wilson recovered from the illegal / dirty head shot from Matthews Seattle’s offense shredded GB.

You cannot blame Bostick or the onside kick. Look at Seattle’s last 3 drives:

# Seattle drive prior to the onside kick: 69 yards, 103 seconds, TD

# Seattle drive after the onside kick: 50 yards, 43 seconds, TD

# Seattle drive in overtime: 87 yards, 6 plays, TD

Where was Green Bay’s defense? Oh yeah, once Seattle stopping giving them the ball Seattle ran all over them. The 2nd to last drive (69 yards, 103 second, TD by Wilson) was an epic show of will.

1st & 10 SEA 31: Lynch rush for 14 yards; 15 seconds between plays
1st & 10 SEA 45: Wilson to Baldwin for 20 yards; 13 sec
1st & 10 GB 35: Incomplete pass (basically a spike play with an added chance at the end zone); 0 sec
2nd & 10 GB 35: Wilson to Lynch for 26 yards, out-of-bounds (working the sideline); 0 sec
1st & 10 GB 9: Lynch rush for 4 yards; 13 sec
2nd & 5 GB 5: Wilson rush for 4 yards; 15 sec
3rd & 5 GB 1: Wilson rush for 1 yard, TD

Again, where was Green Bay's defense?

Seattle’s offense played horribly in the first 3 quarters – specifically turnovers.

But you know what? Green Bays offense and defense both sucked for 4 quarters. Or better, Seattle’s defense was crushing Green Bay’s offense. Look at Rodger’s line:

19/34 for 178 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT 55.8 passer rating (51.1 QBR) – 6 fantasy points

The League MVP was horrible. Yeah, the weather was bad but Wilson isn’t given that excuse. Yes, Rodger was hurt. So was Sherman, Thomas, and Simon (3/5 the starting LOB) not to mention the deep attrition on Seattle’s starting defensive line. Rodger’s still had Eddie Lacy, Gordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams and his solid OL.

And Seattle gave Green Bay 2 huge gifts in the 1st quarter: the ball on the 19 and 23 yard lines in 2 of the first 4 drives. Seattle stonewalled Green Bay and GB got a measly 6 points (2x FGs) which were gimmies as Seattle gave them the ball in easy FG range. So what happened after the 1st quarter?

From the 2nd quarter Rodgers & GB did squat:

Q2 13:18 FG 11 yards 6 plays
Q2 9:18 INT 23 yards 3 plays
Q2 1:55 Punt 12 yards 4 plays

Q3 13:05 Punt 9 yard 3 plays
Q3 4:44 Punt 7 yards 4 plays
Q3 0:55 FG 57 yards 10 plays

Q4 6:53 Punt 6 yards 3 plays
Q4 5:04 Punt -4 yards 3 plays
Q4 1:25 FG 48 yards 7 plays

9 drives, 9 points, 169 yards on 43 plays.

That is 3.9 yards per play and 4.8 plays per drive. And a measly 1 point per drive. 3pts a quarter.

The Seattle defense crushed the Green Bay offense. And due to the Wilson/Kearse issues how fantastic Seattle’s defense played is overlooked.

The game was close enough entering the 4th at 19-7. And it remained that score until 4 minutes left with Seattle with the ball.

With the game close and the season on the line here is what the teams put together:

# Seattle: 69 yards, 103 seconds, TD

# Seattle: 50 yards, 43 seconds, TD

# Seattle: 87 yards, 6 plays, TD

With the Season Green Bay's last drives in comparison:

# 3 plays, 6 yards, 60 seconds, Punt

# 3 plays, -4 yards, 72 seconds, Punt

# 7 plays, 48 yards, 71 seconds, FG

Seattle: 21 points (3 TDs)

Green Bay: 3 points (1 FG, 2x punts)

Green Bay didn’t show up for the 4th quarter. They were neither the better team nor deserved to win. Seattle gave the game away and then took it back. Green Bay, even with Seattle giving 5 turnovers, never took the gift to take the game away. Mainly because Seattle’s defense squatted all over Rodger & GB all day long.

But it would be easy to miss if you only watch offense. The GB game was an amazing display by one of the best defenses in the last 25 years, especially when you consider how banged up Thomas and Sherman were.

Ps- Seattle's offense was epically bad the first 55 minutes. Of course it was uncharacteristic as Wilson entered the game with one of the highest QB ratings in the playoffs, ever (6 games).