2015 NFL draft and offseason thread: How will the Browns screw up this year?

[lupi]

Now its a lock, final year for the seachickens to make another SB run as the defense gets gutted next offseason.

 

[SP33Demon]

EDIT: TL;DR version: Wilson is still getting shafted by his rookie deal, which is at the core of what the problem was. e.g. Cam Newton's deal vs. Russell Wilson's deal:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

Wilson new deal, while larger in annual "new value" is less PER YEAR because his 2015 salary of $1.5mm is not going to be radically changed. Cam benefits from a MUCH higher starting point for his final rookie year deal ($14.7mm). Even if not for a 5th year option Cam Newton had a $7mm 4th year baseline to start instead of $1.5mm like Wilson.

--

It is hard to grasp for most of us (I am not part of the Anandtech 7-figure salary club... or 6 figure!) but Wilson is still getting shafted compared by the CBA / Rookie contract.

In a nutshell: He signed an extension. His 4th year rookie contract @ $1.5mm is still in place. His new money amount is $88mm but his 5 year is $17.9mm. This is a LOT LESS than Rodgers... and even Cam Newton.

Looking at Cam:

Rookie Deal: 4 year, $22mm total; 5th year option of $14.7mm

Y1: $4mm
Y2: $5mm
Y3: $6mm
Y4: $7mm
Y5: $14.7mm (2015, 5th year option)

His new contract is a 5 year extension but part of 2015 is turned into guarantees/bonus. The new deal is 5 years, $103.8mm, $22.5mm bonus.

Y0: $13mm (2015)
Y1: $19.5mm
Y2: $20.2mm
Y3: $21.5mm
Y4: $23.2mm
Y5: $21.1mm

His new contract average is $20.76mm/yr.

But looking at the 6 year window, including 2015 (Y0), since the base Y0 is higher from the rookie deal (5th year option) Cam makes $118.5mm which over 6 years has an APY of $19.75mm

TL;DR:

Cam APY of new contract: $19.75mm 2015-2020 ("new years" $20.76mm)

Russ APY of new contact: $17.9mm for 2015-2018 ("new years" $21.9mm)

The only saving grace for Wilson's contract is he is back on the market 2 years earlier and with the rising cap in position to get 1 last huge contract.

Wilson over 8 years will make $91mm ($3mm first 4 years, $88 second 4 years).

To compare Newton who will make $100.7mm over his first 8 years ($22mm first 4 years, $78.7mm second 4 years).

Nobody cares about APY, only guaranteed money. Cam is only guaranteed 31 mil (60 if injured) of his contract, while Russ almost DOUBLE that. Compare Russ's guaranteed percentage of contract at 68.5% which DESTROYS all other QB's in the league. Seattle is going all in on this guy by giving him the best guaranteed money in the NFL and then some, holy risky deal Batman.

2. Guaranteed Money: Wilson's agent, Mark Rodgers, is a baseball guy. He's used to dealing in all guaranteed money and made it clear he wanted his client to get a large percentage guaranteed. Per King that's exactly the case, with $60 million guaranteed in Wilson's contract and a $31 million signing bonus. $60 million guaranteed out of $87.6 million total (and we have to assume it's basically fully guaranteed) means Wilson is going to get 68.5 percent of his contract guaranteed. That's really good for an NFL deal. By comparison: Rodgers (49.1 percent), Roethlisberger (35.5), Cam Newton (39.5) and Matt Ryan (40.5) are all much lower.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...ll-wilson-seahawks-sign-4-year-876m-extension

 

[smackababy]

Nobody cares about APY, only guaranteed money. Cam is only guaranteed 31 mil (60 if injured) of his contract, while Russ almost DOUBLE that. Compare Russ's guaranteed percentage of contract at 68.5% which DESTROYS all other QB's in the league. Seattle is going all in on this guy by giving him the best guaranteed money in the NFL and then some, holy risky deal Batman.



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...ll-wilson-seahawks-sign-4-year-876m-extension

I don't get this whole "APY means Cam gets more!" silliness. Wilson has his last year at a shitty deal and a new contract after that as a good one. Seattle is simply extending him so they don't have to negotiate with him next year where he can threaten FA.

Wilson got the money he deserves, I just thought he'd get a little more.

 

[Retro Rob]

I would be curious for a football break down why you say that.

I can only assume you are talking about the NFCCG as Seattle fairly made the playoffs by a solid margin (12-4) and destroyed Carolina in the divisional round.

Seattle was the better team in the NFC Championship game.

I have read a lot of articles on both sides and watched the game and my conclusion is it is really sour grapes among Green Bay fans and Seattle haters (9er).

The bottom line is Seattle's defense was fantastic and Seattle was giving the game away but Green Bay never took it and once Seattle's offense literally stopped giving the ball away (5x!) Green Bay was toast.

Seattle's defense stopped Green Bay's offense dead.

Seattle's offense stopped Seattle's offense--Green Bay's defense rolled over like a dead dog.

There is a thorough article addressing this issue. Seattle, not Green Bay, was the team giving away the game. Seattle could take the game away at the end because they had played well (sans turnovers) and every time Seattle shot themselves in the foot the defense – you know, the other side of the ball that is 50% of the game – kicked GB’s butt. Once Kearse stopping popping balls up in the air and Wilson recovered from the illegal / dirty head shot from Matthews Seattle’s offense shredded GB.

You cannot blame Bostick or the onside kick. Look at Seattle’s last 3 drives:

# Seattle drive prior to the onside kick: 69 yards, 103 seconds, TD

# Seattle drive after the onside kick: 50 yards, 43 seconds, TD

# Seattle drive in overtime: 87 yards, 6 plays, TD

Where was Green Bay’s defense? Oh yeah, once Seattle stopping giving them the ball Seattle ran all over them. The 2nd to last drive (69 yards, 103 second, TD by Wilson) was an epic show of will.

1st & 10 SEA 31: Lynch rush for 14 yards; 15 seconds between plays
1st & 10 SEA 45: Wilson to Baldwin for 20 yards; 13 sec
1st & 10 GB 35: Incomplete pass (basically a spike play with an added chance at the end zone); 0 sec
2nd & 10 GB 35: Wilson to Lynch for 26 yards, out-of-bounds (working the sideline); 0 sec
1st & 10 GB 9: Lynch rush for 4 yards; 13 sec
2nd & 5 GB 5: Wilson rush for 4 yards; 15 sec
3rd & 5 GB 1: Wilson rush for 1 yard, TD

Again, where was Green Bay's defense?

Seattle’s offense played horribly in the first 3 quarters – specifically turnovers.

But you know what? Green Bays offense and defense both sucked for 4 quarters. Or better, Seattle’s defense was crushing Green Bay’s offense. Look at Rodger’s line:

19/34 for 178 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT 55.8 passer rating (51.1 QBR) – 6 fantasy points

The League MVP was horrible. Yeah, the weather was bad but Wilson isn’t given that excuse. Yes, Rodger was hurt. So was Sherman, Thomas, and Simon (3/5 the starting LOB) not to mention the deep attrition on Seattle’s starting defensive line. Rodger’s still had Eddie Lacy, Gordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams and his solid OL.

And Seattle gave Green Bay 2 huge gifts in the 1st quarter: the ball on the 19 and 23 yard lines in 2 of the first 4 drives. Seattle stonewalled Green Bay and GB got a measly 6 points (2x FGs) which were gimmies as Seattle gave them the ball in easy FG range. So what happened after the 1st quarter?

From the 2nd quarter Rodgers & GB did squat:

Q2 13:18 FG 11 yards 6 plays
Q2 9:18 INT 23 yards 3 plays
Q2 1:55 Punt 12 yards 4 plays

Q3 13:05 Punt 9 yard 3 plays
Q3 4:44 Punt 7 yards 4 plays
Q3 0:55 FG 57 yards 10 plays

Q4 6:53 Punt 6 yards 3 plays
Q4 5:04 Punt -4 yards 3 plays
Q4 1:25 FG 48 yards 7 plays

9 drives, 9 points, 169 yards on 43 plays.

That is 3.9 yards per play and 4.8 plays per drive. And a measly 1 point per drive. 3pts a quarter.

The Seattle defense crushed the Green Bay offense. And due to the Wilson/Kearse issues how fantastic Seattle’s defense played is overlooked.

The game was close enough entering the 4th at 19-7. And it remained that score until 4 minutes left with Seattle with the ball.

With the game close and the season on the line here is what the teams put together:

# Seattle: 69 yards, 103 seconds, TD

# Seattle: 50 yards, 43 seconds, TD

# Seattle: 87 yards, 6 plays, TD

With the Season Green Bay's last drives in comparison:

# 3 plays, 6 yards, 60 seconds, Punt

# 3 plays, -4 yards, 72 seconds, Punt

# 7 plays, 48 yards, 71 seconds, FG

Seattle: 21 points (3 TDs)

Green Bay: 3 points (1 FG, 2x punts)

Green Bay didn’t show up for the 4th quarter. They were neither the better team nor deserved to win. Seattle gave the game away and then took it back. Green Bay, even with Seattle giving 5 turnovers, never took the gift to take the game away. Mainly because Seattle’s defense squatted all over Rodger & GB all day long.

But it would be easy to miss if you only watch offense. The GB game was an amazing display by one of the best defenses in the last 25 years, especially when you consider how banged up Thomas and Sherman were.

Ps- Seattle's offense was epically bad the first 55 minutes. Of course it was uncharacteristic as Wilson entered the game with one of the highest QB ratings in the playoffs, ever (6 games).

I think you're making my point. Right, I was talking about the Championship game where they were basically giving the Packers free possessions with those turnovers.

Secondly, Rodgers was clearly hurt, couldn't even run without that obvious limp. He's by far the better QB -- too bad, because Seattle got lucky he was hurt.

 

[glenn1]

Jamaal Charles is fast enough he can catch his own forward pass

 

[chitwood]

Jamaal Charles is fast enough he can catch his own forward pass

I'll see your Jamaal Charles and raise you a Michael Vick:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu8XNJmQsCI

 

[Ban Bot]

I think you're making my point. Right, I was talking about the Championship game where they were basically giving the Packers free possessions with those turnovers.

Secondly, Rodgers was clearly hurt, couldn't even run without that obvious limp. He's by far the better QB -- too bad, because Seattle got lucky he was hurt.

I don't think it makes the point you were making. Your argument is Seattle, "They actually shouldn't have made the SB last season". Free possessions don't mean much if the other team prevents you from moving the ball or scoring. It certainly doesn't translate to not earning a place in the Super Bowl. Seattle, as a Team (TM), was able to overcome career bad days from Kearse/Wilson. And it should not go overlooked that Kearse/Wilson were the same two players who ended the game on a 35 yard bomb. It is easy to focus on the bad (Kearse popping up balls for INTs) or the turnovers and forget *Defense* is 50% of the game and that Kearse ran a perfect route and made a fantastic catch to win the game.

But Green Bay fans (defense is part of football?!) and 49er fans (can only see Seattle flaws) won't see this

As for injuries it isn't like Seattle's defenders weren't banged up.

FS Earl Thomas dislocated his shoulder and tore his labrum at the beginning of the 2nd quarter of the game, missing most of the 2nd quarter and played the remainder of the game in a constraint harness. CB1 Richard Sherman injured his elbow early in the 4th quarter, tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. Tharold Simon, who started at CB2 the week prior against Carolina, was playing with a dislocated shoulder (from December) that required offseason surgery and has him on the PUP list. Seattle's top backup at Safety (backed up FS Thomas and SS Chancellor) Jeron Johnson was inactive for the game due to a dislocated elbow suffered in Week 17.

Yes, Rodgers was injured. But so were Seattle's All Pro Safety and All Pro Cornerback and top backup CB and Safety. Both teams had injuries (Seattle's starting RT Britt and TE Miller didn't play and Seattle's best DT Mebane and best pass rushing DT Hill were both out as well). Injuries are the crappiest part of the game--right up there with 30+ year old players being treated as replaceable commodities in the offseason by being cut to lower their contracts when they are still playing at a high level but everyone knows no one values older players regardless of performance.

Frankly, the idea Seattle got "lucky" because Rodgers was hurt overlooks the fact Seattle *trashed* Green Bay earlier in the season. 36-16 in Week 1. A lot happened in between those two games (Seattle took a huge blow with Harvin). But even with all the attrition Green Bay still couldn't beat Seattle. It was a closer game but it required Wilson to have a career worse 4 INTs to even keep the game close. Wilson had never had a game that bad, ever. And it still wasn't enough for Green Bay to beat the better team. Because Seattle, on a bad day, was better than Green Bay.

 

[SP33Demon]

I don't get this whole "APY means Cam gets more!" silliness. Wilson has his last year at a shitty deal and a new contract after that as a good one. Seattle is simply extending him so they don't have to negotiate with him next year where he can threaten FA.

Wilson got the money he deserves, I just thought he'd get a little more.

Well, Wilson isn't going to get that much guaranteed money and more per year than ARod. No ownership is that stupid!*

*the Skins for Haynesworth and Neon Deion excluded

 

[smackababy]

Well, Wilson isn't going to get that much guaranteed money and more per year than ARod. No ownership is that stupid!*

*the Skins for Haynesworth and Neon Deion excluded

Wilson has lead his team much better than anyone else in the league. I figured he would be around $23 mil a season.

 

[Imported]

http://deadspin.com/the-49ers-turf-is-still-terrible-1722446840

Good god. $1.3billion and they still can't get it right. Avaya stadium located not too far from Levi's has no issues with it's grass though.

 

[smackababy]

http://deadspin.com/the-49ers-turf-is-still-terrible-1722446840

Good god. $1.3billion and they still can't get it right. Avaya stadium located not too far from Levi's has no issues with it's grass though.

Avaya stadium uses real grass, not turf. No legitimate soccer stadium would use turf and no legitimate soccer team would play on turf. Though, I wouldn't necessarily call the San Jose Earthquakes a legitimate soccer team. >_>

 

[Imported]

Avaya stadium uses real grass, not turf. No legitimate soccer stadium would use turf and no legitimate soccer team would play on turf. Though, I wouldn't necessarily call the San Jose Earthquakes a legitimate soccer team. >_>

Ayava and Levi's both use real grass. Levi's is just a much more terrible version.

 

[smackababy]

Ayava and Levi's both use real grass. Levi's is just a much more terrible version.

Oh, I thought they used turf in Levi's. I guess it is just in SF, even the grass is too smug to grow properly.

EDIT: For a real answer, I think Levi's doesn't care about the grass other than player safety. Bad grass alters a soccer game a lot, so it is a big part of their design and maintenance. For an NFL game, it just has to be "good enough" for players to run on.

 

[SunnyD]

Pretty sure Aldon Smith is done in the NFL.

 

[dank69]

Niners can't catch a break this year it seems.

 

[Ban Bot]

Pretty sure Aldon Smith is done in the NFL.

Very sad. The young man really, really needs help and to turn his life around. Beyond endangering others (a horrible crime in its own right) he is destroying his life. And I am not talking of his NFL career. As a Seahawk fan I am not happy to see anyone implode and be this destructive, even if a 9er. Sad to say but prison may be his last hope for turning his life around. And the statistics say prison has a horrible track record.

(I am not sure with Aldon the issue is entitlement. It seems he has some very, very deep issues. I wish him the best, for his sake. I won't feel bad for him if he serious hurt someone and he gets the book thrown at him--he has had a lot of chances--but hope there is some light and hope in his life, somewhere, so he can end this horrible cycle. The kid is in a really bad place in life. Very sad.)

 

[Ban Bot]

49er 2015 offseason: officially the worst ever.

They have even outdone the Marlin fire sales post-championships.

 

[Imported]

Sounds about right. New turf, new DUI for another year.

 

[Drako]

http://deadspin.com/the-49ers-turf-is-still-terrible-1722446840

Good god. $1.3billion and they still can't get it right. Avaya stadium located not too far from Levi's has no issues with it's grass though.

Looks like Aldon Smith was doing donuts on the grass. :sneaky:

 

[dank69]

Aldon Smith released already.

 

[Imported]

So.. how long til the Cowboys claim him?

 

[RPD]

Does Aldon Smith have a dad or what? Talk about one stupid ass mother fucker.

 

[lupi]

49er 2015 offseason: officially the worst ever.

They have even outdone the Marlin fire sales post-championships.

Get in line, some of us have already called that.

Ah it's so sweet when you bath in your own karma.

 

[smackababy]

So.. how long til the Cowboys claim him?

Came in to post this!

Honestly, I was defending Smith at first. The weapons charge I still think is BS. However, now, he is just an idiot.

 

[cabri]

Came in to post this!

Honestly, I was defending Smith at first. The weapons charge I still think is BS. However, now, he is just an idiot.

The latest arrest, his third for DUI, is the most recent in a long list of off-field transgressions for Smith. He received a 12-day sentence and three years of probation in July following a no-contest plea to three felony weapons charges and two misdemeanor DUI charges. The weapons charges (and one of the DUI charges) were in connection to a 2012 party at Smith's residence where he was stabbed.

Why would you think there were bogus. He did plea no-contest.