20 Years and it all goes to s*. Climate Change. Hossenfelder.

[Jaskalas]

Not an end just yet, but we're definitely entering the 'find out' phase.

Right, but what does finding out look like? What possible paths do we have from here?

Let us focus solely on Climate Change: Mass migration, scarcity of resources, relocating farmland, losing our ports and their infrastructure...
All these are technically solvable problems. But so was CO2. As was communism. The problem, always, is the human element.

We are largely unable or unwilling to plan ahead and/or cope with the consequences of Climate Change. We can push to address some of those things, we may even make some progress in slowing down the exponential rise of CO2. But make no mistake, it will still rise. Just not as exponentially fast. Ultimately, it will be a decline in human population that truly slows down CO2. And how does human population decline? It won't be pretty, but it'll be almost entirely human behavior leading the charge.... against our very lives.

The stress factors on our societies will rip them apart, cause nations to fall, and all the violence that follows.
To say nothing of the full scale industrial war that has already begun....

TL;DR, the Great Filter is calling....

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Right, but what does finding out look like? What possible paths do we have from here?

Let us focus solely on Climate Change: Mass migration, scarcity of resources, relocating farmland, losing our ports and their infrastructure...
All these are technically solvable problems. But so was CO2. As was communism. The problem, always, is the human element.

We are largely unable or unwilling to plan ahead and/or cope with the consequences of Climate Change. We can push to address some of those things, we may even make some progress in slowing down the exponential rise of CO2. But make no mistake, it will still rise. Just not as exponentially fast. Ultimately, it will be a decline in human population that truly slows down CO2. And how does human population decline? It won't be pretty, but it'll be almost entirely human behavior leading the charge.... against our very lives.

The stress factors on our societies will rip them apart, cause nations to fall, and all the violence that follows.
To say nothing of the full scale industrial war that has already begun....

TL;DR, the Great Filter is calling....

The noble course would be gradual but escalating migrations from central America, India, and China to more northern climes, followed by a gradual and 'encouraged' population decline into a more manageable scale while agricultural, industrial, and logistical centers stabilize in new regions. Alongside that would be a complete rework of how humanity operates, a near-ceasing of all fossil fuels (and I do mean all, like no plastics all).

Realistically? Lines of guns at every border, billions dead from starvation, at least one (potentially nuclear) war over fresh water rights, until the costs of survival overtake the ability to maintain security, at which general anarchy follows.

 

[Fenixgoon]

The noble course would be gradual but escalating migrations from central America, India, and China to more northern climes, followed by a gradual and 'encouraged' population decline into a more manageable scale while agricultural, industrial, and logistical centers stabilize in new regions. Alongside that would be a complete rework of how humanity operates, a near-ceasing of all fossil fuels (and I do mean all, like no plastics all).

Realistically? Lines of guns at every border, billions dead from starvation, at least one (potentially nuclear) war over fresh water rights, until the costs of survival overtake the ability to maintain security, at which general anarchy follows.

and this is why i don't think i'll be having kids. i'm pretty sure this is our future. i hope i'm wrong. i also hope i'm dead by the time it comes around.

 

[cytg111]

I wouldn't kid myself with the idea of hunting for food. Most places in the US don't have enough land nearby to support a sufficient population of motivated humans. If the shit really hit the fan they'll be hunted dry of everything larger than a chipmunk within a week or three.

Lay low, loot the near infinite stores of dry goods in homes surrounding you. Worry about hunting and survival skills if you make it past that first year of blood.

That actually sounds like a plan. Wait the initial storm and wait for shit to settle a bit. But that is the "shit hits the fan" scenario, the scenario Sabine draws up is one where it's sliding, not free falling, to hell... ie. noone can afford a pack of toilet paper anymore and then it just goes out of production - sliding.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

That actually sounds like a plan. Wait the initial storm and wait for shit to settle a bit. But that is the "shit hits the fan" scenario, the scenario Sabine draws up is one where it's sliding, not free falling, to hell... ie. noone can afford a pack of toilet paper anymore and then it just goes out of production - sliding.

Most people don't realize how JIT food services (groceries included are). One day out from deliveries and 50% of nonperishables are gone from like 90% of walmarts and walmart-likes. Two out and everyone panic buys, clearing the place of 90% of nonperishables. Three out and anyone who didn't buy in the first two are probably feeling uncomfortable. A week? Most people have worked through the perishables they know how to put together outside of year-old cans of gravy and are starting to look for houses without cars in the driveway...

 

[Zorba]

Sorry boomers are the worst generation. Deal with it.

People are the worst people, the boomers are just old enough to see the bad side. The generation before the boomers, polluted like crazy, had zero regard for the environment, instituted red-lining and vast single family home zoning, replaced mass transit with highways, etc. A few generations before that literally fought and died to protect the rights of a handful of rich people to own slaves.

There are plenty of Millennials driving around in huge SUVs and living in massive homes.

 

[gothuevos]

Add this to our nightmare fuel:

Majority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds

Many of America’s critical sources of underground water are in a state of rapid and accelerating decline, a new study has found. More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are…

www.google.com

 

[itsmydamnation]

Add this to our nightmare fuel:

Majority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds

Many of America’s critical sources of underground water are in a state of rapid and accelerating decline, a new study has found. More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are…

www.google.com

you guys don't do aquifer management ?
Like in Australia, i say we do it badly, but we do it.

 

[cytg111]

Most people don't realize how JIT food services (groceries included are). One day out from deliveries and 50% of nonperishables are gone from like 90% of walmarts and walmart-likes. Two out and everyone panic buys, clearing the place of 90% of nonperishables. Three out and anyone who didn't buy in the first two are probably feeling uncomfortable. A week? Most people have worked through the perishables they know how to put together outside of year-old cans of gravy and are starting to look for houses without cars in the driveway...

That's true. Speaking of toilet paper, that shit was gone, people were hoarding that shit like it was gold when the pandemic set in.

And that is my exact reasoning as well. People is gonna look for other people to loot *fast*.
So you gonna need guns. Lots.

 

[biostud]

Add this to our nightmare fuel:

Majority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds

Many of America’s critical sources of underground water are in a state of rapid and accelerating decline, a new study has found. More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are…

www.google.com

You can always invade import from Canada.

 

[cytg111]

This may have hit others earlier, but this is the first for me cause it comes from someone who's scientific expertise and compass I trust (Sabine).

Her whole schtick is being grounded and calm when the usual hysteric mania people is getting riled up over imminent fusion, super conductors, quantum computing you name it. The most anti hype scientific youtuber you can imagine - with a PhD in theoretical physics.

I mean we hear it all the time, climate change this and that and at the back of my head I always went "it's gonna be shit but we will adjust, it's what we do as a species".

But it looks like there is a real chance that it's gonna turn to real shit within our lifetimes and specially our kids lifetimes. Turbulent. Upending. Shifting.

If you live near the equator - get the fuck out now. Now. Migrate. Learn a new language.

edit: Note: Should one take up amateur radio as a hobby?

 

[feralkid]

Nope. They were just lucky that life was easy for them.
Sure there are arseholes that are boomers but there are a bunch of rolling coal arseholes that'll actively do everything possible that's the worst for the environment in the face of the existential threat we face.
There are a bunch of sexist boomer arseholes but then there are a bunch of Andrew Tate sympathetic sociopaths that are pretty young.

In short there are arseholes of all generations.

Thank you...

I was getting close to having to caution a certain poster (who likes to place the blame), that he himself is well on the road to fascism by flirting with one of its principle tenets:

• "Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause"

Not a good look at all.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

you guys don't do aquifer management ?
Like in Australia, i say we do it badly, but we do it.

We let God sort it out. If God doesn't refill aquifers then those people must have made him angry.

 

[hal2kilo]

The boomers don’t get the blame for creating the problem, they don’t even get the blame for not trying to fix it, where they get the blame is that the boomer voting block overwhelmingly voted for politicians who blocked anyone else from trying to address the issue.

Your generation is entitled and handed everything and I certainly don’t begrudge your generation for having it so good, I wish all generations could have it that good. The problem I have with your generation is your incessant need to keep everyone else for trying to improve anything. Again, we are speaking in generalities as there are plenty (not a majority though) of boomers who actually tried to do good.

If you don’t understand that then you are most likely part of the problem.

My voting record will tell you different!

 

[hal2kilo]

and this is why i don't think i'll be having kids. i'm pretty sure this is our future. i hope i'm wrong. i also hope i'm dead by the time it comes around.

My kids aren't having kids, and I'm not disappointed.

 

[Stokely]

It's one thing to just shrug and say "what can we do".

I know some people personally that take it further, that it's all a hoax and propaganda. And the GOP has how many elected members saying the same thing?

After watching deniers during the first couple years of Covid and vaccines it became clear to me that this species is broken (as if I couldn't tell before). That there's literally nothing we are too tribal to split into camps over, unless maybe you are talking death and destruction and bloodlust, there's a reason to pull together (see: 2003 and Iraq and GWB's approval rating).

 

[ivwshane]

My voting record will tell you different!

So you read a post and got triggered because you didn’t read the part that specifically said not all boomers and ignored the part that said boomers as a whole?

Or are you disagreeing with the claim that boomers, in general (as in a majority) voted for blocking of forward looking policies?

 

[ivwshane]

It's one thing to just shrug and say "what can we do".

I know some people personally that take it further, that it's all a hoax and propaganda. And the GOP has how many elected members saying the same thing?

After watching deniers during the first couple years of Covid and vaccines it became clear to me that this species is broken (as if I couldn't tell before). That there's literally nothing we are too tribal to split into camps over, unless maybe you are talking death and destruction and bloodlust, there's a reason to pull together (see: 2003 and Iraq and GWB's approval rating).

What people don’t understand is that humans at the individual level are stupid. We barely could survive on our own. However, as a collective we are very intelligent…provided that there is a shared belief and acceptance of institutions such as education and scientific ones. And that’s the problem we have now, we are losing faith or becoming distrustful of those institutions and that shared knowledge we once had is going to the wayside.

 

[akugami]

The boomers don’t get the blame for creating the problem, they don’t even get the blame for not trying to fix it, where they get the blame is that the boomer voting block overwhelmingly voted for politicians who blocked anyone else from trying to address the issue.

Your generation is entitled and handed everything and I certainly don’t begrudge your generation for having it so good, I wish all generations could have it that good. The problem I have with your generation is your incessant need to keep everyone else for trying to improve anything. Again, we are speaking in generalities as there are plenty (not a majority though) of boomers who actually tried to do good.

If you don’t understand that then you are most likely part of the problem.

This.

Even in this short negligible sample size, you got boomers saying we can't fix it, so let's not bother, and anyone who tries is stupid. What kind of attitude is that?

 

[brycejones]

My voting record will tell you different!

You're most likely like my parents in that regard. Unfortunately there were not enough of you and frankly too many politicians from that generation have stuck around way to long and been obstructionist.

 

[Stokely]

What people don’t understand is that humans at the individual level are stupid. We barely could survive on our own. However, as a collective we are very intelligent…provided that there is a shared belief and acceptance of institutions such as education and scientific ones. And that’s the problem we have now, we are losing faith or becoming distrustful of those institutions and that shared knowledge we once had is going to the wayside.

Yep. I just had dinner with another couple (our kids grew up together) and generally I know it is a VERY good idea to keep the conversation away from certain topics. The woman in particular believes all kind of nonsense from Joe Shmoe on youtube but any kind of actual real study done in the name of science is "biased". She leans way to the right and that tends to put her beliefs at odds with science (not always, but often enough.)

In short, social media is ramping things up, that's not exactly a hot take. Fake news is nothing new (George Orwell's impetus for writing 1984 was in part fake news stories about the Spanish Civil War iirc) but now we've just made it far, far too easy for "influencers" to...well, influence people. Snake oil salesmen used to have to cart their goods around the old west in a wagon to make a buck, now they just buy a decent (yet cheap) mic and set up a Youtube channel. Be edgy, come up with clickbait titles and hopefully let the money roll in--and the sad part is that probably very few of them believe the nonsense they are shoveling to the rubes.

 

[Leeea]

We will just put sunglasses on earth and it will all be fine.

Chill out everyone.

Stratospheric aerosol injection - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Space sunshade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What, you expected us to actually deal with the root of the problem? Doing something beside the gluttonous devouring of everything in sight?

-blink-

Responsibility? Conservation? Morality? Someone, get the torches and pitchforks!

 

[woolfe9998]

Sabine Hossenfelder isn't quite as apocalyptic as is the commentary in this thread.

Also, people should listen to her about nuclear power.

 

[hal2kilo]

One day, when I had no cable in Anaheim, I was flipping past all of the spanish dancing girl shows (seriously), I stumbled across a really interesting show on the (believe it or not) community channel. It was about how water is managed in Orange County, CA
This link is to general water management systems.
They literally had to or they would be drinking salt water.
See point 2.

Managed aquifer recharge in California

www.americangeosciences.org

 

[Fanatical Meat]

But….but….
Al Gore said Polar Bears would be extinct by now…..


#sarcasm dummies