Zen delayed to 2017 (DigiTimes)

[sirmo]

If the entire OEM supply chain is backed up with inventory of an old product they aren't going to want new product that obsoletes that inventory. HP doesn't care if the CPU comes from AMD or Intel if they have to clear their PC inventory, or meet their purchasing commitments to their suppliers. Purchase commitements that are made 6 - 12 months in advance.

They are PCs regardless of who makes the CPU. I think that's what is hanging you up, you think an AMD CPU PC is in a different market than an Intel CPU PC, but it's all one market which is seeing a historic decline.

"If you build it they will come" only works in movies. In the real world if you build it without having orders already in place you go broke.

Yes and I've acknowledged the OEM side of things, but Lisa Su specifically addressed us the enthusiast fans as she put it at Computex.
She isn't going to delay a product which if delivered on time could sell like hot cakes for a product which hasn't been selling well since its inception.

AMD isn't going after Bulldozer's nonexistent market share, they are going after Intel's market share.

 

[Sweepr]

If the entire OEM supply chain is backed up with inventory of an old product they aren't going to want new product that obsoletes that inventory. HP doesn't care if the CPU comes from AMD or Intel if they have to clear their PC inventory, or meet their purchasing commitments to their suppliers. Purchase commitements that are made 6 - 12 months in advance.

 

[swilli89]

If the entire OEM supply chain is backed up with inventory of an old product they aren't going to want new product that obsoletes that inventory. HP doesn't care if the CPU comes from AMD or Intel if they have to clear their PC inventory, or meet their purchasing commitments to their suppliers. Purchase commitements that are made 6 - 12 months in advance.

They are PCs regardless of who makes the CPU. I think that's what is hanging you up, you think an AMD CPU PC is in a different market than an Intel CPU PC, but it's all one market which is seeing a historic decline.

"If you build it they will come" only works in movies. In the real world if you build it without having orders already in place you go broke.

Man the amount of blanket generalizations I read in these forums is insane... YOU DON'T KNOW THAT. If you have loads of inventory and a new product is released that commands triple the margin? Uh yeah you still want it. That's just one grossly over simplified example I used, there are waayyy more plausible scenarios where you would want to liquidate your stock for a new product.

I got my degree in, and am currently in a career as a Supply Chain Manager/Sourcing Manager at a Fortune 100 company. It is extremely complicated and there are soo many variables to figuring out stock and replenishment points, lead times, quality service levels and many other decisions that must be made. Sometimes I think its so complex that we don't even have a full grasp on our own internal supply chain.

Now having said that, its incredibly naive for everyone to be arguing how they might think some OEM's stock of a competitors products might affect the decisions being made at AMD and Zen's release schedule.

When you have less than 10% marketshare it is really hard to imagine many scenarios where you don't want to launch as quickly as possible when you serve consumer, enterprise, and OEM markets all together with pretty much the same product.

 

[Headfoot]

Man the amount of blanket generalizations I read in these forums is insane... YOU DON'T KNOW THAT. If you have loads of inventory and a new product is released that commands triple the margin? Uh yeah you still want it. That's just one grossly over simplified example I used, there are waayyy more plausible scenarios where you would want to liquidate your stock for a new product.

I got my degree in, and am currently in a career as a Supply Chain Manager/Sourcing Manager at a Fortune 100 company. It is extremely complicated and there are soo many variables to figuring out stock and replenishment points, lead times, quality service levels and many other decisions that must be made. Sometimes I think its so complex that we don't even have a full grasp on our own internal supply chain.

Now having said that, its incredibly naive for everyone to be arguing how they might think some OEM's stock of a competitors products might affect the decisions being made at AMD and Zen's release schedule.

When you have less than 10% marketshare it is really hard to imagine many scenarios where you don't want to launch as quickly as possible when you serve consumer, enterprise, and OEM markets all together with pretty much the same product.

Couldn't agree more. If you have a warehouse full of turds nobody wants to buy, and you have a warehouse full of shiny new product people do want to buy, you're not going to just sit on the shiny new stuff... And more so, you're never going to willingly put yourself into that position. You'll stop making the turds as soon as you think you need to so it can clear before shiny shows up. They'll probably do what every product company does. Bring down old gen output in anticipation of the new product, according to forecasting models they've built.

Not glamorous and not amenable to hyperbolic forumite rhetoric, but probably a lot closer to the truth.

What is more likely: 1) They discontinue the old product sooner, or 2) they delay a new product? Pretty obviously discontinue the old product sooner...I'm not saying Zen is not delayed (I don't know one way or the other), only that its extraordinarily unlikely they'd pick option 1 over option 2.

Despite what forumites may think, it's a virtual certainty they had a supply chain guy think about this stuff literally years ago, when they first committed to building Zen.

 

[Qwertilot]

Well, yes, the existing stock thing is only really an issue because of how very uninteresting CPU upgrades have become. Zen is going to be a slightly cheaper/slightly worse version of Intel's stuff and Kaby basically identical to Skylake.

Zen might still sell fine for new stuff/builds of course. Agree that AMD would love to at least push out the enthusiast stuff as early as possible and like I've said before I thought the server markets were doing quite well?

 

[krumme]

I don't think there is a single person in here who actually cares about this article, adamantly believes it's true, or is defending DigiTimes in any way. All I'm saying is that the idea of demand for CPUs at OEMs being low is quite obviously, objectively, and undeniable an event that could possibly occur. And for a bunch of morons to show up and spam the thread with invented nonsense like "WHY WOULD AMD DELAY BECAUSE OF BULLDOZER," a thing that no one suggested, is just frustrating as all hell. Why can't we have this discussion without trolls, without liars, without people who sit at their keyboards all day fabricating reasons to be angry?

Honestly, read the last few pages, look at how many idiots wrote something like "it makes no sense for AMD to delay Zen in order to sell Bulldozer stock." Then go back further and see if you can find anyone who suggested such a thing.

There is low demand of bulldozer not because the general demand is slipping as it have for years but because the product is very bad.

The entire idea that bd is delayed one month because of a general trend in the market like this "article" claims is completely idiotic. Do i have to explain it further?

The article is a damn mess and written in 10 minutes but there is hardly any argument except this hillarious reason for 1 month delay on a product having a ttm of +48 months.

 

[Phynaz]

Yes and I've acknowledged the OEM side of things, but Lisa Su specifically addressed us the enthusiast fans as she put it at Computex.
She isn't going to delay a product which if delivered on time could sell like hot cakes for a product which hasn't been selling well since its inception.

AMD isn't going after Bulldozer's nonexistent market share, they are going after Intel's market share.

How much of the x86 chip market do you think enthusiasts that would buy Zen make up? Do you think that market is large enough to make up for pissing off the OEMs?

 

[myocardia]

...

 

[Arachnotronic]

How much of the x86 chip market do you think enthusiasts that would buy Zen make up? Do you think that market is large enough to make up for pissing off the OEMs?

It's a very, very tiny part. Most systems, even to gamers, are pre-built. This is something that people on these boards need to understand.

 

[Phynaz]

Man the amount of blanket generalizations I read in these forums is insane... YOU DON'T KNOW THAT. If you have loads of inventory and a new product is released that commands triple the margin?

1. Yes I do know that. I spent a career in manufacturing IT.

2. Even if AMD sold CPUs at cost it wouldn't triple the OEMs margins.

3. As an apparent AMD fan you must know what an inventory write down is. Do you think AMD would endear themselves to the OEMs by forcing them to write off a few hundred million dollars of inventory?

 

[Phynaz]

It's a very, very tiny part. Most systems, even to gamers, are pre-built. This is something that people on these boards need to understand.

And it's these same OEMs that buy the high margin enterprise server CPUs.

 

[krumme]

We are to accept the change of the market demand; Ohh no the pc market is slipping. Its a very volatile market !!!

And on the same time in the same premises we have to accept the perfect planning of oems sayin; "dear amd postpone the high profit zen from 17 dec to 14 january so we can sell the rest of the bd lowend (ps. Sorry we know it have been underway for 5 years but pls?)".

No logic nowhere.

 

[Arachnotronic]

And it's these same OEMs that buy the high margin enterprise server CPUs.

Yes.

Anyway, I don't know why people are getting so emotional about this. The performance level that people seem to be hoping for with Zen is already available in the marketplace today.

 

[krumme]

1. Yes I do know that. I spent a career in manufacturing IT.

2. Even if AMD sold CPUs at cost it wouldn't triple the OEMs margins.

3. As an apparent AMD fan you must know what an inventory write down is. Do you think AMD would endear themselves to the OEMs by forcing them to write off a few hundred million dollars of inventory?

Ofcource he does.
Seriously. Do you beliewe this crap in the article?

Its a specific case. Imo its so idiotic no members of this forum could come up with this crap beforehand. But now its in digitimes.

 

[krumme]

And it's these same OEMs that buy the high margin enterprise server CPUs.

You think Michael from Dell will call Otellini asking for more money if they must delay the zen server cpu?

Because imo that kind of action and lesser tricks is far more likely but the products will end on the market another way.

 

[poofyhairguy]

3. As an apparent AMD fan you must know what an inventory write down is. Do you think AMD would endear themselves to the OEMs by forcing them to write off a few hundred million dollars of inventory?

At some point they have to, it costs them money to store all that unsold inventory no matter what AMD does. If it won't sell today at normal prices it probably won't sell tomorrow at normal prices. Eventually you have to face the music.

That is why as consumers "clearance sales" are the only sales you can consistently trust to actually give you a deal.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Anyway, I don't know why people are getting so emotional about this.

I don't know about other people, but I feel emotionally tied to the Zen launch because it seems like the last chance for us to see real competition in the x86 CPU market.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I don't know about other people, but I feel emotionally tied to the Zen launch because it seems like the last chance for us to see real competition in the x86 CPU market.

There is competition in the x86 CPU market. You can buy AMD CPUs today for PC builds, and because of the strong competition that Intel brings, AMD's processors are very affordable.

 

[chrisjames61]

Seriously? Core 2 duo and maybe Sandy Bridge were "home runs". Skylake is more like an infield single.

Or maybe a bloop to short center.

 

[chrisjames61]

I literally don't know what an "infield single" is.

I guess you aren't from the USA.

 

[poofyhairguy]

There is competition in the x86 CPU market. You can buy AMD CPUs today for PC builds, and because of the strong competition that Intel brings, AMD's processors are very affordable.

My bad, I was unclear. Zen is the last hope for real competition in the mid to high-end consumer market. I don't know of a single AMD CPU I could recommend for a gaming machine, it would be nice if that weren't the case.

 

[chrisjames61]

It's a baseball reference. Home runs = points for your team. It takes 4 "singles" to = a home run.

Core 2 duo and Sandybridge were phenomenal CPU's, therefore "home runs"
Skylake isn't that great, therefore a "single"

That isn't how it works. With a fast runner on first moving with the pitch at times the base runner can score from first on a single. Maybe 5% of the time. Not a lot but it happens. Especially with a loafing outfielder. A runner on first will score on a double 80% of the time. If you put four singles together you usually will get two runs out of it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I guess you aren't from the USA.

Born and raised in the USA. Not a sports fan, though.

 

[chrisjames61]

Lots of companies give out awards to their partners. Usually these are rewards for successful, long-term relationships. None of these awards have a damn thing to do with what the worldwide supply chain looks like at any given point in time.

Let me put it another way: your satisfaction with a particular grocery store does not guarantee their availability of perfectly ripe tomatoes on December 14th at 4:45 AM Central Daylight Time.



Ask DigiTimes man, I was just clarifying what they said...

Don't waste your breath. He isn't going to get it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

it would be nice if that weren't the case.

Why would it be nice? Legitimately asking.