Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Timorous]

I think that NVL 52c will dominate Zen 6 24c in MT; however, it may be a moot point since at its price point it may well be up against thread ripper which, IMO, will beat it badly in highly MT loads that people are likely to shell out that kind of money to run.

It will depend on all core clock rates which can differ from f-max quite a lot.

IPC uplifts seem to be similar ish but it seems Z6 will have a clock bump nvl won't. How that shakes out for all cores will determine the MT winner in the highly threaded parts.

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

 

[marees]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

 

[jdubs03]

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

That’ll get normalized so the juicing won’t matter.

 

[poke01]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

Maybe both will be announced in Q4 and shipping in Q1.

I could see Intel launching the K only models to get the early adoptors

 

[eek2121]

It will depend on all core clock rates which can differ from f-max quite a lot.

IPC uplifts seem to be similar ish but it seems Z6 will have a clock bump nvl won't. How that shakes out for all cores will determine the MT winner in the highly threaded parts.

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

There could be as much as a 30%-40% all core clock gap between the two chips if things play out well for Zen 6. AMD is going from N4 to N2, which is a pretty big shrink. Add to that a 10-15% IPC increase and Intel has a pretty big hill to climb. While Intel is juicing PL2 for their next chip, They have a lot more cores to feed.

 

[coercitiv]

I could see Intel launching the K only models to get the early adoptors

Historically that is their pattern. They should have more K chips this time though, so it remains to be seen if they bring them all out at once or not.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I think that NVL 52c will dominate Zen 6 24c in MT; however, it may be a moot point since at its price point it may well be up against thread ripper which, IMO, will beat it badly in highly MT loads that people are likely to shell out that kind of money to run.

W.r.t. price, for reference Zen5 TR launch price was $2499 (9970X, 32C) and $4999 (9980X, 64C).

 

[Jan Olšan]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

I proposed something similar in case of Benchlife, but note that the wording Golden Pi Upgrade uses also states AMD is going for CES 2027 (or trying to). So that may be a second source you would have to explain. Perhaps he jut relies on Benchlife, but if he speaks from his own sources, then ignroing Benchlife for the aforementioned reasons doesn't help.

 

[jpiniero]

I proposed something similar in case of Benchlife, but note that the wording Golden Pi Upgrade uses also states AMD is going for CES 2027 (or trying to). So that may be a second source you would have to explain. Perhaps he jut relies on Benchlife, but if he speaks from his own sources, then ignroing Benchlife for the aforementioned reasons doesn't help.

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

well duh, CES is always mobile.

 

[Joe NYC]

If they see enough demand from the datacenter market they could easily decide to allocate nearly all of those wafers there, leaving precious little for Zen 6 PC/laptop parts.

If there is enough demand, then AMD supplies all segments, as planned.

Only if the demand is extraordinarily high, and all the upside from TSMC N2 capacity has been exhausted, only then there could be a trade-off.

Which is what my post said.

They can keep selling Zen 5, or port Zen 6 to N3 family processes to avoid wasting that "money in the bank" making peanuts by comparison to what they could be making. If the AI bubble keeps inflating DRAM/NAND will continue to get more expensive, causing PC demand to crater so it might not matter that much anyway.

In N2, the demand is finite. Limited to a small sets of players with finite demand.

N3, however, is the node that NVidia is using for Rubin, where the demand is, in theory, infinite.

Also, in client, Zen 6 desktop, using N2, will have high margins. Zen 6 mobile, using N3, will have smaller margins.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

Then the question is still open if Zen6 DT will be released before or after that. If after, I assume it'll be late Q1 or Q2 2027, since early Q1 will be occupied by the mobile Zen6 release.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Then the question is still open if Zen6 DT will be released before or after that. If after, I assume it'll be late Q1 or Q2 2027, since early Q1 will be occupied by the mobile Zen6 release.

DT and server launch at once (mostly).

 

[eek2121]

I feel the need to drop this HBU video here:

I am not their biggest fan, however their coverage of hardware hasn't been terrible IMO (I am just a nerd who wants nerd details) yet I think they nailed yet another reason why Intel will struggle with Zen 6 competition, and, more dramatically, why Zen 7 may turn Intel into a Fab only business (that last part is purely speculation on my part, however) I don't see how Intel comes back from this with storage/memory shortages, no performance to bring to the table, and no socket longevity. I realistically don't see how they can even compete with Zen 6. Even the most hardcore Intel folks I know have adopted AMD CPUs/boards at this point.

Funny enough, IMO, if they don't survive this, it will be the constant platform changes that killed them, not the poor upgrades themselves.

I feel like Zen 6 will be a make-or-break moment for Intel. If they can't find a way to differentiate/compete, they (the chip design portion, at least) will be demolished, and that happens regardless of who has performance leadership, unless Intel can redefine performance and value as we know it, which likely isn't going to happen.

Just my 2 cents. Looking forward to seeing how things play out.

 

[inquiss]

I feel the need to drop this HBU video here:

I am not their biggest fan, however their coverage of hardware hasn't been terrible IMO (I am just a nerd who wants nerd details) yet I think they nailed yet another reason why Intel will struggle with Zen 6 competition, and, more dramatically, why Zen 7 may turn Intel into a Fab only business (that last part is purely speculation on my part, however) I don't see how Intel comes back from this with storage/memory shortages, no performance to bring to the table, and no socket longevity. I realistically don't see how they can even compete with Zen 6. Even the most hardcore Intel folks I know have adopted AMD CPUs/boards at this point.

Funny enough, IMO, if they don't survive this, it will be the constant platform changes that killed them, not the poor upgrades themselves.

I feel like Zen 6 will be a make-or-break moment for Intel. If they can't find a way to differentiate/compete, they (the chip design portion, at least) will be demolished, and that happens regardless of who has performance leadership, unless Intel can redefine performance and value as we know it, which likely isn't going to happen.

Just my 2 cents. Looking forward to seeing how things play out.

They'll probably lose again in DIY, but they sell a lot of non-DIY. The CPU design part will still sell into that market too. Corps still need CPUs for the workers. Lower margin market, ofc, but they need the fabs not to be idle and they have contracts to fill.

 

[Markfw]

They'll probably lose again in DIY, but they sell a lot of non-DIY. The CPU design part will still sell into that market too. Corps still need CPUs for the workers. Lower margin market, ofc, but they need the fabs not to be idle and they have contracts to fill.

Well, I won't put any money on it, but here is my take. Their server parts will get creamed as usual lately. The 52 core part, if it comes out will have to be on a server platform and probably be very inefficient. The desktop line will lose, but not badly, except in the gaming area to the x3d parts. As someone else says, this will be make or break for Intel. If they have even a few good parts, they could start coming back. If not, its the end, except manufacturing.

But I am sure AMD will win overall.

 

[1250]

Mrdimm gen2 d1c memory (upto 256gb)
Helios rack 192gb(ma hope)
Or normal ddr5? How much rams

 

[adroc_thurston]

They'll probably lose again in DIY, but they sell a lot of non-DIY. The CPU design part will still sell into that market too. Corps still need CPUs for the workers. Lower margin market, ofc, but they need the fabs not to be idle and they have contracts to fill.

Commercial buys a lot of laptop and laptop they're gonna continue bleeding share for a wide variety of reasons.

NVL-HX vs MDS1-hi will be an interesting comparison since they're both effectively 1CCD parts on a mainstream NB socket.

 

[ETI4711]

Mrdimm gen2 d1c memory (upto 256gb)
Helios rack 192gb(ma hope)
Or normal ddr5? How much rams

Venice has 16 memory channels. AMD stated at Advancing AI 2025 that the Memory Bandwidth of Venice is 1,6TB/s. That is only possible with MRDIMM.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That is only possible with MRDIMM.

Yeah.
Venice is RDIMM 8000 normal, 8800 select hyperscalers and MRDIMM 10700/12800.

 

[Geddagod]

I feel like Zen 6 will be a make-or-break moment for Intel. If they can't find a way to differentiate/compete, they (the chip design portion, at least) will be demolished, and that happens regardless of who has performance leadership, unless Intel can redefine performance and value as we know it, which likely isn't going to happen.

As someone else says, this will be make or break for Intel.

Frankly, I think you guys are placing way too much importance on desktop. Even if desktop is a total shit show once again, which again, I doubt it will be as bad as it is with ARL vs Zen 5 X3D because of bLLC being a thing, Intel has a ton of momentum on DT, and the AI boom has reached servers, meaning even Intel's worse server CPUs will still at least sell, even if not for as high margins/prices as AMD's stuff.

Zen 6 can be amazing, and I still doubt Intel's design side won't at least survive.

 

[Kepler_L2]

Intel has a ton of momentum on DT

what

 

[Timorous]

what

Negative momentum is momentum.

 

[coercitiv]

@Geddagod is probably referring to the whole desktop segment, OEM boxes make the most of it and Intel has plenty of momentum left there. Intel is completely compromised in DYI, but it takes time for this shift in mind share to translate towards prebuilts.

That being said, Intel's lifelines are server and laptops. Losing any of these would hurt much more than desktop, and they're safe for now in both of these markets. On server side they're selling everything they can make today, on the mobile side AMD is giving them a break because they're too focused on AI. It's the COVID rush all over again, which means Intel gets money in advance now and will have to pay the bill later. (they get to borrow time essentially)

The only thing that can break them right now is failing on the manufacturing side, and we really don't want them to do that. I'd rather play with knives than bet on a positive outcome for consumers after an IFS collapse.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Is benchlife accurate?

https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-zen-6-desktop-ryzen-olympic-ridge-reportedly-set-to-launch-in-2027

There's been reports saying if the AI bubble doesn’t pop or deflate, leaving RAM allocation free for other stuff, many consumer electronics' brands are going bankrupt, and then a bunch of retailers will follow. Unless there’s some form of government intervention.

There are always outliers. But yeah, console targets for cross platform titles help dictate the requirements.

Recent Zen 3 testing confirms it. All of the SKUs are bunched up. If 6 cores were going to get exposed, BF6 MP would be a prime candidate. Didn't happen.

On the upside: We should stop seeing complaints about AMD "core stagnation" for a few generations?

We're about to get a next-gen console from Sony with only 6 cores where only 4 of them are available to games.
Thanks to that, it does look like core stagnation in games might get extended for another decade or so.