Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Timorous]

I think that NVL 52c will dominate Zen 6 24c in MT; however, it may be a moot point since at its price point it may well be up against thread ripper which, IMO, will beat it badly in highly MT loads that people are likely to shell out that kind of money to run.

It will depend on all core clock rates which can differ from f-max quite a lot.

IPC uplifts seem to be similar ish but it seems Z6 will have a clock bump nvl won't. How that shakes out for all cores will determine the MT winner in the highly threaded parts.

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

 

[marees]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

 

[jdubs03]

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

That’ll get normalized so the juicing won’t matter.

 

[poke01]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

Maybe both will be announced in Q4 and shipping in Q1.

I could see Intel launching the K only models to get the early adoptors

 

[eek2121]

It will depend on all core clock rates which can differ from f-max quite a lot.

IPC uplifts seem to be similar ish but it seems Z6 will have a clock bump nvl won't. How that shakes out for all cores will determine the MT winner in the highly threaded parts.

Feeding all those cores may come at a significant power cost so it will also depend on if Intel are willing to juice it just to win a few benches.

There could be as much as a 30%-40% all core clock gap between the two chips if things play out well for Zen 6. AMD is going from N4 to N2, which is a pretty big shrink. Add to that a 10-15% IPC increase and Intel has a pretty big hill to climb. While Intel is juicing PL2 for their next chip, They have a lot more cores to feed.

 

[coercitiv]

I could see Intel launching the K only models to get the early adoptors

Historically that is their pattern. They should have more K chips this time though, so it remains to be seen if they bring them all out at once or not.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I think that NVL 52c will dominate Zen 6 24c in MT; however, it may be a moot point since at its price point it may well be up against thread ripper which, IMO, will beat it badly in highly MT loads that people are likely to shell out that kind of money to run.

W.r.t. price, for reference Zen5 TR launch price was $2499 (9970X, 32C) and $4999 (9980X, 64C).

 

[Jan Olšan]

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1rbde40/zen_6_and_nova_lake_are_probably_not_postponed_to

I proposed something similar in case of Benchlife, but note that the wording Golden Pi Upgrade uses also states AMD is going for CES 2027 (or trying to). So that may be a second source you would have to explain. Perhaps he jut relies on Benchlife, but if he speaks from his own sources, then ignroing Benchlife for the aforementioned reasons doesn't help.

 

[jpiniero]

I proposed something similar in case of Benchlife, but note that the wording Golden Pi Upgrade uses also states AMD is going for CES 2027 (or trying to). So that may be a second source you would have to explain. Perhaps he jut relies on Benchlife, but if he speaks from his own sources, then ignroing Benchlife for the aforementioned reasons doesn't help.

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

well duh, CES is always mobile.

 

[Joe NYC]

If they see enough demand from the datacenter market they could easily decide to allocate nearly all of those wafers there, leaving precious little for Zen 6 PC/laptop parts.

If there is enough demand, then AMD supplies all segments, as planned.

Only if the demand is extraordinarily high, and all the upside from TSMC N2 capacity has been exhausted, only then there could be a trade-off.

Which is what my post said.

They can keep selling Zen 5, or port Zen 6 to N3 family processes to avoid wasting that "money in the bank" making peanuts by comparison to what they could be making. If the AI bubble keeps inflating DRAM/NAND will continue to get more expensive, causing PC demand to crater so it might not matter that much anyway.

In N2, the demand is finite. Limited to a small sets of players with finite demand.

N3, however, is the node that NVidia is using for Rubin, where the demand is, in theory, infinite.

Also, in client, Zen 6 desktop, using N2, will have high margins. Zen 6 mobile, using N3, will have smaller margins.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I'll say if AMD does release any Zen 6 products at CES, it's just mobile.

Then the question is still open if Zen6 DT will be released before or after that. If after, I assume it'll be late Q1 or Q2 2027, since early Q1 will be occupied by the mobile Zen6 release.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Then the question is still open if Zen6 DT will be released before or after that. If after, I assume it'll be late Q1 or Q2 2027, since early Q1 will be occupied by the mobile Zen6 release.

DT and server launch at once (mostly).

 

[eek2121]

I feel the need to drop this HBU video here:

I am not their biggest fan, however their coverage of hardware hasn't been terrible IMO (I am just a nerd who wants nerd details) yet I think they nailed yet another reason why Intel will struggle with Zen 6 competition, and, more dramatically, why Zen 7 may turn Intel into a Fab only business (that last part is purely speculation on my part, however) I don't see how Intel comes back from this with storage/memory shortages, no performance to bring to the table, and no socket longevity. I realistically don't see how they can even compete with Zen 6. Even the most hardcore Intel folks I know have adopted AMD CPUs/boards at this point.

Funny enough, IMO, if they don't survive this, it will be the constant platform changes that killed them, not the poor upgrades themselves.

I feel like Zen 6 will be a make-or-break moment for Intel. If they can't find a way to differentiate/compete, they (the chip design portion, at least) will be demolished, and that happens regardless of who has performance leadership, unless Intel can redefine performance and value as we know it, which likely isn't going to happen.

Just my 2 cents. Looking forward to seeing how things play out.