Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[adroc_thurston]

30% a year is rapidly rising.
It was 2.3M in 2025, projected ~3M in 2026 and 3.9M in 2027. At an average ~$800 per unit, it's a sizeable sub-market within the gaming PC ecosystem (same games, same peripherals, etc.).

Oh no big dawg those volumes are bananas, completely detached from the reality.

 

[adroc_thurston]

it will be huge. in 3 to 4 years time a major chunk compared to first party xbox sales

I love nerd hopes and dreams so much, they're always so fun to crush.

 

[Tachyonism]

I don't know what changes Intel will be making for those. It'll probably be priced competitively with the Z2/Z2E, even if there's no more Z-series from AMD anytime soon unless Z3 is based on Halo.

Iirc the G3 chips spec has been leaked. Cores config changed to 2+8+4, with lower clocked B370 and B390 (10 and 12 Xe cores respectively).

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Oh no big dawg those volumes are bananas, completely detached from the reality.

Nope.

https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2025/aug/2-point-3-million-pc-gaming-handhelds-will-be-sold-in-2025

AFAICT these numbers keep being revised upwards. As XBox FSE and SteamOS get better, I take it more people will be keen on taking the Switch experience into higher-end levels.

Iirc the G3 chips spec has been leaked. Cores config changed to 2+8+4, with lower clocked B370 and B390 (10 and 12 Xe cores respectively).

Halving of P cores doesn't make a ton of sense to me, though it could be that it's a way to ensure more power available to graphics.
As for the GPU, I read they were bringing a B380 which is a 12 Xe core B390 with slightly lower maximum clocks.

In the end, it seems the G3 line is meant to go from 15 to ~30W, and that's where Intel will claim "total victory", even against Strix Halo.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AFAICT these numbers keep being revised upwards. As XBox FSE and SteamOS get better, I take it more people will be keen on taking the Switch experience into higher-end levels.

They're going wayyyyy down because of DRAM prices.
2-3m is the actual TAM for PC handhelds.
Not a real market.

 

[Josh128]

ThePhawx confirms that Panther Lake H regularly outperforms Strix Halo from 15 to 25W TDP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015786803895107776

20W. For most of his gaming tests, Halo is already pulling away from Panther Lake at 25W by ~5%. If you watch the video , you will see that he mentions Halo has a pronounced gaming performance sag in the 15W range that is due to (in his opinion) how sloppily Halo handles memory speed at that power point, and he thinks its down to the memory controller and/or microcode.

What remains to be seen, and may or may not be statistically significant from a power draw perspective, but certainly should be from a price perspective, is how the Max +388 and the Max 385 come into this conversation. It may allow Halo to better compete at the 15W envelope, where it lags the 388H Panther Lake by 15%-20%.

 

[adroc_thurston]

It may allow Halo to better compete at the 15W envelope

it's a 60W part, why are you doing that to the poor thing.

 

[Josh128]

it's a 60W part, why are you doing that to the poor thing.

For purely academic purposes. Despite generally losing, it still competes surprisingly well in the 15W-20W range despite its huge silicon area and process disadvantage. To the point where dropping a CCD and even a potential BIOS update for the mem controller could put it almost neck and neck. I mean, if they similarly priced, its good to know.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

20W. For most of his gaming tests, Halo is already pulling away from Panther Lake at 25W by ~5%.

That's a synthetic benchmark, i.e. less power diverted to CPU, so the bigger GPU gets more power and wins.

In games, PTL-H is faster at 25W:

you will see that he mentions Halo has a pronounced gaming performance sag in the 15W range that is due to (in his opinion) how sloppily Halo handles memory speed at that power point, and he thinks its down to the memory controller and/or microcode.

Could be, but correcting it would probably demand a new stepping and Gorgon Halo doesn't exist yet so we can't compare PTL-H to a hypothetical future product yet.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Could be, but correcting it would probably demand a new stepping and Gorgon Halo doesn't exist yet so we can't compare PTL-H to a hypothetical future product yet.

meh, wait a year (and a bit) for AT4 dingus which is the AMD 45W dgfx compete part.

 

[LightningZ71]

People just aren't ready for what 32GB of high end LPDDR5X is going to cost going forward. Handhelds that were in the $700-$800 range are going to push into 4 figures. Volume takes a nosedive in that price range. The market doesn't have the volume needed to hide much in the way of variable cost fluctuations.

 

[Josh128]

That's a synthetic benchmark, i.e. less power diverted to CPU, so the bigger GPU gets more power and wins.

In games, PTL-H is faster at 25W:

View attachment 137465

No, it isnt. At 25W, Panther wins in CP2077, and Returnal 1080p, ties in Doom Dark Ages RT, and loses in Returnal 720p, Deux Ex Mankind 1080p, Batman 1080p, and Wukong 1080p. Thats a majority win for the Halo at 25W. What am I missing?

 

[itsmydamnation]

No, it isnt. At 25W, Panther wins in CP2077, and Returnal 1080p, ties in Doom Dark Ages RT, and loses in Returnal 720p, Deux Ex Mankind 1080p, Batman 1080p, and Wukong 1080p. Thats a majority win for the Halo at 25W. What am I missing?

View attachment 137482

@ToTTenTranz is just a Soy Cat because after decades of AMD trying to make people care about iGPU DR Sue has killed any chance of AMD doing cheap good iGPU GFX.

 

[Tachyonism]

Halving of P cores doesn't make a ton of sense to me, though it could be that it's a way to ensure more power available to graphics.
As for the GPU, I read they were bringing a B380 which is a 12 Xe core B390 with slightly lower maximum clocks.

In the end, it seems the G3 line is meant to go from 15 to ~30W, and that's where Intel will claim "total victory", even against Strix Halo.

I thinks it does make sense.

For devices that typically operates at around 15-25W such as handhelds, anything that the B390 iGpu can run 60FPS@720P stably probably does not requires anything more than 6 cores or 2+8 can offers. Reducing the number of P cores also allows the device to put more power toward the iGpu, which I would argue is more important than the Cpu at such low resolution gaming.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

No, it isnt. At 25W, Panther wins in CP2077, and Returnal 1080p, ties in Doom Dark Ages RT, and loses in Returnal 720p, Deux Ex Mankind 1080p, Batman 1080p, and Wukong 1080p. Thats a majority win for the Halo at 25W. What am I missing?

View attachment 137482

I had only seen the 25W results with Cyberpunk 2077, but ok. Then, if it's a tie at 25W and a win at 20W, we can still say Panther Lake is the fastest between 15 and 25W.
And if we can take into consideration the superior XeSS3 that allows for lower base resolution at similar or better IQ, this distance increases.

@ToTTenTranz is just a Soy Cat because after decades of AMD trying to make people care about iGPU DR Sue has killed any chance of AMD doing cheap good iGPU GFX.

I don't even know what this means, but the cheap part is out the window and has been for a while. I'm one of the people here who's been begging for one of the major OEMs to release a Strix Halo handheld, knowing full well such a device would go for $2000 or more if paired with a big OLED screen and 99W.h battery. And I would gladly pay for it.

 

[MerryCherry]

I'm one of the people here who's been begging for one of the major OEMs to release a Strix Halo handheld, knowing full well such a device would go for $2000 or more if paired with a big OLED screen and 99W.h battery. And I would gladly pay for it.

Strix Halo low power efficiency is bad for handheld.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Strix Halo low power efficiency is bad for handheld.

It is for people playing on battery.
I play with my Legion Go >90% of the time plugged to the wall, so I'd rather have a device that scales higher in that use case or docked.

2-3m is the actual TAM for PC handhelds.
Not a real market.

It'll be much higher than that when people don't have to put up with current windows shenanigans to play games, and they have console-like features like hibernation/sleep that actually works in games.
The user experience in current Windows handhelds is very far from being ready for mass adoption, which is why the current >2M units/year market is still mostly comprised of enthusiast early adopters.

We're in the Voodoo2 stage of pc gaming handhelds.

 

[adroc_thurston]

It'll be much higher than that when people don't have to put up with current windows shenanigans to play games, and they have console-like features like hibernation/sleep that actually works in games.

I admire your optimism, but people buy Switch to do that.

The user experience in current Windows handhelds is very far from being ready for mass adoption, which is why the current >2M units/year market is still mostly comprised of enthusiast early adopters.

PC handhelds are inherently not mass-market; they're gimmicky premium devices.

 

[jpiniero]

PC handhelds are inherently not mass-market; they're gimmicky premium devices.

So is $1000+ Windows laptops. That's not stopping AMD.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

I admire your optimism, but people buy Switch to do that.

People have been buying home consoles and DIY+prebuilt gaming PCs for 3 decades now.

People will be buying handheld consoles and handheld PCs just fine.

PC handhelds are inherently not mass-market; they're gimmicky premium devices.

There's nothing premium about the Steam Deck LCD that sells for 430€ against the 450€ Switch 2.
I doubt the PS6 Canis will sell for less than 600€. Compared to a 800€ handheld PC we're in the console (lower cost of entry, expensive software) vs. PC (higher cost of entry, cheaper software) dilemma that has existed for the same 3 decades.

 

[adroc_thurston]

So is $1000+ Windows laptops. That's not stopping AMD.

These actually have nice sustained volumes (especially in commercial).

People have been buying home consoles and DIY+prebuilt gaming PCs for 3 decades now.

most people do consoles.

There's nothing premium about the Steam Deck LCD that sells for 430€ against the 450€ Switch 2.

Deck is a weird huge gimmicky device.
Switch is Switch and switch sells. please.

 

[Tachyonism]

So is $1000+ Windows laptops. That's not stopping AMD.

I disagree, 1000$+ Windows laptops clearly have their place in the current market and I, for one, would personally gladly buy one. They generally pay off very well in the long run.

On the other hand, handheld barely offer any better value even over other cheaper Windows laptops.

 

[desrever]

I think high performance hand held gaming is super niche. Most AAA games don't play well when looking at a ~10" screen and the heavy device is just not that comfortable to hold long term. The only games I play on my deck are turn based games with low hardware requirements.

I think people who buy the high end devices like this have more money than sense and the device ends up gathering dust like 95% of the time. The boom is entirely driven by Steam deck sales and others are just jumping on the wagon. The memory price increases are going to completely drown this already stagnant market.

 

[Fjodor2001]

9850X3D Reviewed:

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amd-ryzen-7-9850x3d-review

”3% more performance, 30% more power”

Let’s hope 9950X3D2 performs better.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Let’s hope 9950X3D2 performs better.

It will. in Y-cruncher. go annoy mysticial for me.