Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[adroc_thurston]

this is a brand new swimlane for companies not called Apple.

Intel shipped a GT4e Skylake like a decade ago.
It was in exactly 1 NUC I think. fun!

 

[branch_suggestion]

Intel shipped a GT4e Skylake like a decade ago.
It was in exactly 1 NUC I think. fun!

Yep, the Xeon version shipped in 2-3 mobile workstations, that was it.
Less a market, more an upper level pet project.

 

[marees]

Yep, the Xeon version shipped in 2-3 mobile workstations, that was it.
Less a market, more an upper level pet project.

I think kabylake g can also be classified under same category

Intel Kaby Lake G Core i7-8705G review: Why Nvidia should be scared

Intel's combination of Core i7-8705G and AMD Radeon RX Vega M burns up the performance charts and represents a sea change in laptop design.

www.pcworld.com

 

[adroc_thurston]

I think kabylake g can also be classified under same category

oh yeah that thing was also 3 laptops and a few NUCs.
Hades Canyon is still a cool form-factor to this day.

 

[LightningZ71]

Lest we forget, Strix Halo is requiring a completely new motherboard platform. They can't just drop it into an existing Strix Point/Hawk Point/Phoenix board and use a repainted case. That takes both time and a willingness to take risks. In addition, we don't know of any exclusivity agreements for specific market segments that might exist.

 

[fastandfurious6]

So are we calling Strix Halo a massive failure or what?

This last week, we heard AMD is selling trays of Strix Halo modules in China.

Ummmm sorry what?

???????????

 

[fastandfurious6]

Framework Halo desktop has a big waitlist

It is known fact AMD team responsible for mobile OEM partnerships etc sucks big time, OR vendors are strongly biased against AMD for

*unknown reason*

I've seen this happen through generations. When Intel is VERY behind, more vendors go Amd. When Intel is slightly behind in perf like with Lunar lake and Arrow HX now, there's 1000 Intel models and 10 AMD

 

[Kolifloro]

Actually I was a bit worried too ... ... but I have to admit your 'reasons' seem legit ...

It [Strix Halo] is a risk ; it still is AMD ; new motherboard ... ... ... many new things ; maybe also drivers' occult problems waiting for early adopters to bump into them ...

Time SHOULD fix most of the problems ... ... 'Medusa Halo' is expected to roll out H2'27 ... so we have time ...

 

[jpiniero]

I think OEMs selling AI in general to consumers has been a big bust.

That's not going to stop OEMs from trying as long as "Investors" continue to cum at the mere thought of AI though.

 

[Abwx]

AMD should use their own brand to sell Strix Halo laptops, and likely that just talking of doing so would create a rush from the usual OEMs to get products released for fear of losing big chunks within the most profitable market all while being unable to compete price wise.

 

[LightningZ71]

They need to find a way to sell this on the gaming side as well as the pro/summer side. They just aren't going to be able to extract a premium from this version yet. NVidia can, and will, sell a 5060 mobile with 16GB vram at a loss to torpedo this or even a higher end mobile with more VRAM, like 24-32 GB and still fit in the same price range of laptops with notably more RAM.

 

[Doug S]

I think OEMs selling AI in general to consumers has been a big bust.

I think the real problem is that the average consumer doesn't care about privacy to the extent that they want local AI processing vs handing it off to ChatGPT and its ilk. Especially since Microsoft will be violating that privacy worse with Copilot than if they just sent their queries off to ChatGPT.

Consumers don't understand why they need massive amounts of local AI processing on a new PC when those who care about AI at all are already using it even with a 10 year old laptop that can't be upgraded to Windows 11.

After OEMs got burnt with all of Microsoft's hype about AI with Windows on ARM and designed laptops for that which aren't selling now AMD is trying to get them to buy into the AI hype with another round of specialty laptops primarily promoted for AI? One can understand why they are kind of gun shy. Fool me once and all that...

 

[Thunder 57]

They need to find a way to sell this on the gaming side as well as the pro/summer side. They just aren't going to be able to extract a premium from this version yet. NVidia can, and will, sell a 5060 mobile with 16GB vram at a loss to torpedo this or even a higher end mobile with more VRAM, like 24-32 GB and still fit in the same price range of laptops with notably more RAM.

I don't think Nvidia would ever sell at a loss. Especially when they pretty much own the market.

 

[yuri69]

TBH Halo fares better than I expected - it got released in a real product.

 

[MS_AT]

Consumers don't understand why they need massive amounts of local AI processing on a new PC when those who care about AI at all are already using it even with a 10 year old laptop that can't be upgraded to Windows 11.

Well, it's in the best interest of M$ to shift as much compute to the edge (consumer) as possible. AI is eating away gigantic power budgets on inference, so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

 

[igor_kavinski]

so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

That makes me wonder. Could M$ come up with a plan in future to let you keep Windows for free as long as you let Windows use your NPU when idle? Sort of like a distributed NPU scheme.

 

[Doug S]

Well, it's in the best interest of M$ to shift as much compute to the edge (consumer) as possible. AI is eating away gigantic power budgets on inference, so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

But Microsoft isn't the only one out there. Sure, SOMEDAY everyone has to start charging for AI. But thanks to the countless billions flooding in wanting to invest in AI that day is years away. Look at how long Google operated before they started advertising, or Facebook. Uber didn't become profitable until a year or two.

So what if Microsoft stopped giving away cloud AI to customers? They'll go to ChatGPT, or Google Gemini and so forth and if they start charging then someone else comes along like Deepseek who is either doing it cheaper or willing to subsidize "free" for longer.

So yeah Microsoft has incentive to do this sure. But consumers have no incentive, and they are the ones who decide whether to spend the money. Who is going to spend unnecessarily today when the economy is blundering along full speed ahead into a tariff fueled recession?

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Nope, it is more prolific than expected, this is a brand new swimlane for companies not called Apple.

Laptops are easily the hardest things to get design wins for, doubly so with an unproven market and AMD still being looked cautiously at.

Doesn't seem to stop Intel from putting Lunar and Arrow Lake into high end laptops with Nvidia 8GB slop, while Halo is multiple times better for a myriad of reasons.

I think they're neat.

No one cares. High performance expensive NUCs don't move any meaningful volume.

NUCs are where good ideas go to die out of unsuccessful B2B marketing, like Intel's GT3e and later Vega M from 12 years ago.


One (1) design win on a real (lol-priced) laptop and one on a fugly "gaming tablet" is just terrible.
AMD failed pretty hard with Strix Halo so far. And unless that changes, this means we shouldn't be so sure about Medusa Halo ever coming out.


Inside a premium gaming handheld Halo would sell like hot cakes, but I guess all the energy went into securing the HP ZBook (not even a high-end sub-brand) G1A Ultra something that most people won't really be able to tell apart from the slop on HP's webpage.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Doesn't seem to stop Intel from putting Lunar and Arrow Lake into high end laptops with Nvidia 8GB slop, while Halo is multiple times better for a myriad of reasons.

Because green sticker.

No one cares. High performance expensive NUCs don't move any meaningful volume.

Wins are wins, new socket, new mainboards, new everything that suppliers need to risk for.

NUCs are where good ideas go to die out of unsuccessful B2B marketing, like Intel's GT3e and later Vega M from 12 years ago.

Good ideas and good enough products, but badly marketed, abandoned before the market opp emerged with enough perf for 1080p APU gaming only being quite recent.

One (1) design win on a real (lol-priced) laptop and one on a fugly "gaming tablet" is just terrible.

HP Z series is a darn good win, that is HP's flagship and they are one of the big 3 business OEMs.

AMD failed pretty hard with Strix Halo so far. And unless that changes, this means we shouldn't be so sure about Medusa Halo ever coming out.

Not sure what you expected, but this is actually above most expectations for a new extended memory flagship SoC in what is a fairly niche part of the overall market.

Inside a premium gaming handheld Halo would sell like hot cakes.

Ah yes, run the thing below the eff curve for who exactly?
That is just a waste of Si that is better used in mobile workstations which command higher ASPs and is an actual market.
Not sure why some people have muh Halo handheld thing going on? It is dumb when for the same TDP you can get nearly the same perf for half the cost.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Inside a premium gaming handheld Halo would sell like hot cakes

You need medication.
'premium gaming handheld' market doesn't exist outside of your fetishistic wet dreams.

Like even $400 is a very steep price for a handheld, and you want kilobuck+ devices for some reason?

 

[igor_kavinski]

Like even $400 is a very steep price for a handheld, and you want kilobuck+ devices for some reason?

I wouldn't mind a giant 17-incher with joysticks on both sides

 

[LightningZ71]

They were SO CLOSE to having a killer handheld product with Strix Point though. Killing the MALL cache for a big NPU just puts a stake in the heart for that application. If they just refreshed it on N3P with the MALL cache design, it would make for a fabulous handheld chip at reasonable power ranges, both off dock and on.

 

[marees]

They were SO CLOSE to having a killer handheld product with Strix Point though. Killing the MALL cache for a big NPU just puts a stake in the heart for that application. If they just refreshed it on N3P with the MALL cache design, it would make for a fabulous handheld chip at reasonable power ranges, both off dock and on.

Runs medium (1080p?) on battery

https://twitter.com/x/status/1926719264062382294

 

[fastandfurious6]

Doesn't seem to stop Intel from putting Lunar and Arrow Lake into high end laptops with Nvidia 8GB slop, while Halo is multiple times better for a myriad of reasons.

thats actually so true

Halo is better than both Lunar (low-W high-perf)
AND arrow lake hx (max-W max perf)

thats a crazy achievement

 

[ToTTenTranz]

You need medication.
'premium gaming handheld' market doesn't exist outside of your fetishistic wet dreams.

Like even $400 is a very steep price for a handheld, and you want kilobuck+ devices for some reason?

High end x86 handhelds above $400 sold millions of units (Deck's most popular model is always the more expensive one), but a fugly gaming windows tablet is somehow more justified?