Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[marees]

So are we calling Strix Halo a massive failure or what?

4 months into 2025, Computex is over and mobility wise we got a total of 1 design wins for a laptop and 1 for a "gaming tablet".

And then we're getting like 5 design wins for those 8 people who somehow need high performance edge clients without having to take them on the go.

This last week, we heard AMD is selling trays of Strix Halo modules in China.



Such a spectacular chip with such an incompetent B2B marketing team.

Depends on what you call by "massive failure"

I would look for 2 signs
1. Unsold inventory
2. No zen 6 successor

 

[branch_suggestion]

So are we calling Strix Halo a massive failure or what?

Nope, it is more prolific than expected, this is a brand new swimlane for companies not called Apple.

4 months into 2025, Computex is over and mobility wise we got a total of 1 design wins for a laptop and 1 for a "gaming tablet".

Laptops are easily the hardest things to get design wins for, doubly so with an unproven market and AMD still being looked cautiously at.

And then we're getting like 5 design wins for those 8 people who somehow need high performance edge clients without having to take them on the go.

I think they're neat.

This last week, we heard AMD is selling trays of Strix Halo modules in China.

Well yeah, it is a good fit for a market that isn't allowed the shiniest stuff.

Such a spectacular chip with such an incompetent B2B marketing team.

It is a tough egg to crack, and they just cracked Dell, who was Intel's greatest ally.

Depends on what you call by "massive failure"

I would look for 2 signs
1. Unsold inventory

TBD.

2. No zen 6 successor

Medusa Halo is the part AMD actually needs to succeed with, Strix Halo was just a pipecleaner to establish the market, they will have competition next gen and that is good for the consumer and market prospects.

 

[adroc_thurston]

this is a brand new swimlane for companies not called Apple.

Intel shipped a GT4e Skylake like a decade ago.
It was in exactly 1 NUC I think. fun!

 

[branch_suggestion]

Intel shipped a GT4e Skylake like a decade ago.
It was in exactly 1 NUC I think. fun!

Yep, the Xeon version shipped in 2-3 mobile workstations, that was it.
Less a market, more an upper level pet project.

 

[marees]

Yep, the Xeon version shipped in 2-3 mobile workstations, that was it.
Less a market, more an upper level pet project.

I think kabylake g can also be classified under same category

Intel Kaby Lake G Core i7-8705G review: Why Nvidia should be scared

Intel's combination of Core i7-8705G and AMD Radeon RX Vega M burns up the performance charts and represents a sea change in laptop design.

www.pcworld.com

 

[adroc_thurston]

I think kabylake g can also be classified under same category

oh yeah that thing was also 3 laptops and a few NUCs.
Hades Canyon is still a cool form-factor to this day.

 

[LightningZ71]

Lest we forget, Strix Halo is requiring a completely new motherboard platform. They can't just drop it into an existing Strix Point/Hawk Point/Phoenix board and use a repainted case. That takes both time and a willingness to take risks. In addition, we don't know of any exclusivity agreements for specific market segments that might exist.

 

[fastandfurious6]

So are we calling Strix Halo a massive failure or what?

This last week, we heard AMD is selling trays of Strix Halo modules in China.

Ummmm sorry what?

???????????

 

[fastandfurious6]

Framework Halo desktop has a big waitlist

It is known fact AMD team responsible for mobile OEM partnerships etc sucks big time, OR vendors are strongly biased against AMD for

*unknown reason*

I've seen this happen through generations. When Intel is VERY behind, more vendors go Amd. When Intel is slightly behind in perf like with Lunar lake and Arrow HX now, there's 1000 Intel models and 10 AMD

 

[Kolifloro]

Actually I was a bit worried too ... ... but I have to admit your 'reasons' seem legit ...

It [Strix Halo] is a risk ; it still is AMD ; new motherboard ... ... ... many new things ; maybe also drivers' occult problems waiting for early adopters to bump into them ...

Time SHOULD fix most of the problems ... ... 'Medusa Halo' is expected to roll out H2'27 ... so we have time ...

 

[jpiniero]

I think OEMs selling AI in general to consumers has been a big bust.

That's not going to stop OEMs from trying as long as "Investors" continue to cum at the mere thought of AI though.

 

[Abwx]

AMD should use their own brand to sell Strix Halo laptops, and likely that just talking of doing so would create a rush from the usual OEMs to get products released for fear of losing big chunks within the most profitable market all while being unable to compete price wise.

 

[LightningZ71]

They need to find a way to sell this on the gaming side as well as the pro/summer side. They just aren't going to be able to extract a premium from this version yet. NVidia can, and will, sell a 5060 mobile with 16GB vram at a loss to torpedo this or even a higher end mobile with more VRAM, like 24-32 GB and still fit in the same price range of laptops with notably more RAM.

 

[Doug S]

I think OEMs selling AI in general to consumers has been a big bust.

I think the real problem is that the average consumer doesn't care about privacy to the extent that they want local AI processing vs handing it off to ChatGPT and its ilk. Especially since Microsoft will be violating that privacy worse with Copilot than if they just sent their queries off to ChatGPT.

Consumers don't understand why they need massive amounts of local AI processing on a new PC when those who care about AI at all are already using it even with a 10 year old laptop that can't be upgraded to Windows 11.

After OEMs got burnt with all of Microsoft's hype about AI with Windows on ARM and designed laptops for that which aren't selling now AMD is trying to get them to buy into the AI hype with another round of specialty laptops primarily promoted for AI? One can understand why they are kind of gun shy. Fool me once and all that...

 

[Thunder 57]

They need to find a way to sell this on the gaming side as well as the pro/summer side. They just aren't going to be able to extract a premium from this version yet. NVidia can, and will, sell a 5060 mobile with 16GB vram at a loss to torpedo this or even a higher end mobile with more VRAM, like 24-32 GB and still fit in the same price range of laptops with notably more RAM.

I don't think Nvidia would ever sell at a loss. Especially when they pretty much own the market.

 

[yuri69]

TBH Halo fares better than I expected - it got released in a real product.

 

[MS_AT]

Consumers don't understand why they need massive amounts of local AI processing on a new PC when those who care about AI at all are already using it even with a 10 year old laptop that can't be upgraded to Windows 11.

Well, it's in the best interest of M$ to shift as much compute to the edge (consumer) as possible. AI is eating away gigantic power budgets on inference, so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

 

[igor_kavinski]

so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

That makes me wonder. Could M$ come up with a plan in future to let you keep Windows for free as long as you let Windows use your NPU when idle? Sort of like a distributed NPU scheme.

 

[Doug S]

Well, it's in the best interest of M$ to shift as much compute to the edge (consumer) as possible. AI is eating away gigantic power budgets on inference, so if M$ can shift the cost to consumer and still charge for the license it's a win for them

But Microsoft isn't the only one out there. Sure, SOMEDAY everyone has to start charging for AI. But thanks to the countless billions flooding in wanting to invest in AI that day is years away. Look at how long Google operated before they started advertising, or Facebook. Uber didn't become profitable until a year or two.

So what if Microsoft stopped giving away cloud AI to customers? They'll go to ChatGPT, or Google Gemini and so forth and if they start charging then someone else comes along like Deepseek who is either doing it cheaper or willing to subsidize "free" for longer.

So yeah Microsoft has incentive to do this sure. But consumers have no incentive, and they are the ones who decide whether to spend the money. Who is going to spend unnecessarily today when the economy is blundering along full speed ahead into a tariff fueled recession?