Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Rigg]

ANANDTECH

Where leakers go to relax and chill.

You should start watermarking your charts like MLID does only with "Tech Journalism Is Dead"

 

[Makaveli]

Well that didn't take long.

lol we now have two people that are famous from this thread.

As you guys move up in the world....

 

[coercitiv]

Feels like 2018.

 

[Timorous]

View attachment 103463

I wonder if different retailers have been given different indicative pricing so AMD can find leakers. They did that with eyefinity by giving it different code names so they could tell where the leak came from depending on what code name was reported.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

I wonder if different retailers have been given different indicative pricing so AMD can find leakers. They did that with eyefinity by giving it different code names so they could tell where the leak came from depending on what code name was reported.

I should have done an MLID and changed his name and the prices. Too late now....

 

[Fjodor2001]

But this are prices for best-buy? You need to add around 10% margin to them RIGHT?

No, BB markup must be 100%. That's if we're going from $499 BB purchase price to $999 MSRP.

 

[branch_suggestion]

X3D Is the new premium option therefore.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I wonder if different retailers have been given different indicative pricing so AMD can find leakers. They did that with eyefinity by giving it different code names so they could tell where the leak came from depending on what code name was reported.

I suppose they have a huge amount of dealers. So how many different prices we're they giving out? Like 9950X will be $399, $400, $401, ... , $499, $500? Each dealer would have to be given a unique price if AMD should be able to identify them.

And what is meant by code name in this context? You mean SKU name, so some said 9950X, and some 9951X, etc?

 

[poke01]

This is obviously fake, since Zen 5 is $1k (and 40% IPC).

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

700/500=1.4 40% more expensive the 40% was referring to the price drop the entire time!!!

 

[techjunkie123]

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

IPC = increased price for consumers, not instructions per clock.

999$ 9950X incoming.

 

[Fjodor2001]

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

Hope is not lost yet. Still waiting for the retail chips before commenting on it IIRC. Would really be a surprising last minute twist if it ends up at 40% IPC though.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

Hope is not lost yet. Still waiting for the retail chips before commenting on it IIRC. Would really be a surprising last minute twist if it ends up at 40% IPC though.

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

Thanks for anchoring the prices at that level. Now AMD cannot go above it at least. Would have preferred $399 for the 9950X though when you were setting the bar anyway.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

Thanks for anchoring the prices at that level. Now AMD cannot go above it at least. Would have preferred $399 for the 9950X though when you were setting the bar anyway.

Why stop there? $299 9950X

 

[Fjodor2001]

Why stop there? $299 9950X

Thanks for lowering the bar. On WTFTech in a few minutes, and then AMD will have to update the MSRP accordingly.

 

[Joe NYC]

X3D Is the new premium option therefore.

Yes.

That was my conclusion too, when I saw that pricing, it seems apparent that AMD is shifting V-Cache parts from niche to "mainstream to premium", while regular Zen 5 is shifting to "budget to mainstream" segments.

And Intel is being relegated to competing only in the lower segments.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yes.

That was my conclusion too, when I saw that pricing, it seems apparent that AMD is shifting V-Cache parts from niche to "mainstream to premium", while regular Zen 5 is shifting to "budget to mainstream" segments.

And Intel is being relegated to competing only in the lower segments.

If true, then what will AMD release as mid-life kicker instead of X3D?

Or are we expecting a more or less full Zen5 lineup within ~2 months of first SKU release (assuming X3D will be released in September), and then nothing of major importance until Zen6?

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

 

[blackangus]

The X3DNow ?
More Cache!
(j/k)

 

[Joe NYC]

If true, then what will AMD release as mid-life kicker instead of X3D?

Or are we expecting a more or less full Zen5 lineup within ~2 months of first SKU release (assuming X3D will be released in September), and then nothing of major importance until Zen6?

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

If X3D parts are ready within a few months, what would be the justification of holding them back a year?

It would result to 1 year loss of sales of that part. Instead of buyers flipping a coin, half going to Intel half going to AMD, with X3D part out and competitively priced, there will be a lot less of the coin flipping and nearly all buyers will go to AMD.

Over the period of a year, this will amount to millions in sales for AMD - or alternatively millions of lost sales. Millions of lost sales sacrificed at the altar of some great marketing strategy.

Regarding to what comes after X3D parts, if they figured stacking more layers, they could release those, without having to tape out any new parts.

Other alternatives stem from what @Kepler_L2 posted here earlier, that the Zen 5 A0 silicon was already out in early 2023. From that, there may be a couple of possibilities:
- newer stepping's of Zen 5, could be released as xx50 parts (7750x)
- since Zen 5 was ready so long ago, Zen 6 may be further along the way of the development, and will be released after a shorter time interval after Zen 5.

 

[Goop_reformed]

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

The question is can Arrow Lake Refresh can even beat Zen 5x3d.

 

[StinkyPinky]

I noticed on Best Buy someone has posted photos and reviews of a HX370 laptop

Benchmarks:
Lightroom export 156 24MP RAW: 2 min 16 seconds
Lightroom AI denoise: 11 seconds
Geekbench 6 Single core: 2886
Geekbench 6 Multi core: 15279
Geekbench 6 GeForce 4060 Vulcan 91219 / OpenCL 87042
Geekbench 6 890M Vulcan 46290 / OpenCL 42932
GeekbenchML CPU 3452 (no NPU)
GeekbenchML 890M 7347
GeekbenchML GeForce 4060 12087
Crystaldiskmark 5037 MB/s read 3033 MB/s write

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438.p?skuId=6584438#tabbed-customerreviews

 

[Thunder 57]

Feels like 2018.

Exactly this. Some rumor came out that Zen 2 was going to be stupidly low priced and so many people bought it. People thought I was an idiot for suggesting otherwise (not on this forum).

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

If those prices are accurate, I'll eat a can of cat food. I would guess more like $250/350/500/600 (maybe even 650) respectively. Maybe we should make a Google doc like the one where we put in IPC/clock guesses so we can see how wrong we all end up being .

 

[jdubs03]

where did you get those numbers from?

You have to select “see all customer reviews” (it’s the 2nd review item), but here is the direct, direct link:

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/reviews/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438?variant=A

 

[Fjodor2001]

If X3D parts are ready within a few months, what would be the justification of holding them back a year?

Other alternatives stem from what @Kepler_L2 posted here earlier, that the Zen 5 A0 silicon was already out in early 2023.

The first quote says AMD ought to release Zen5X3D as soon as the chip is ready. But then the second quote says the regular Zen5 was ready already in early 2023, but is not released until now in July 2024.

So in that case why use differt policy for Zen5 vs Zen5X3D? Why not release both as soon as possible after they are ready?

(For regular Zen5, I know there is some lead time from A0 silicon until actual release is possible. But it ought to be much shorter than from early 2023 until now.)

- newer stepping's of Zen 5, could be released as xx50 parts (7750x)
- since Zen 5 was ready so long ago, Zen 6 may be further along the way of the development, and will be released after a shorter time interval after Zen 5.

For the first bullet, do you mean just frequency bumps or did you have something else in mind?

For the second bullet, would that mean Zen6 release in like 12-18 months from now, so mid-life kicker is not needed?