Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[biostud]

My point is: I am against fake MSRPs with subsequent deep discounts. Makes the company look amateurish.

Apple products sell mostly at MSRP. That should be the goal of AMD establishing itself as a premium brand.

Apple sell phones and computers. AMD sells chips. Besides us at tech forums, the general public really has very little knowledge or desire to know about chips and performance.

AMD will set prices high to get highest margins in the beginning selling to all the 1 day buyers and until they are fully stocked, then they will evaluate their sales a regulate prices accordingly to maximize profits. Which is what any company would want.

 

[Timorous]

So how about gold electroplating?

It would be a thin enough layer, while still offering the lustre and shine of gold.Wouldnt be too expensive.

Suitable for ultra-high end CPUs like Intel's KS parts.

Because it is pointless when it will be hidden under a heatsink... I thought you meant gold because it conducts heat well and using it for that purpose.

 

[Joe NYC]

No, it's just that.

Margins dawg AMD loves margins.
DIY is a margin cow segment.
Units sold in DIY don't ever really change. Margins do, though.

Nope, kids will run and make it vanish off the shelves.

Assuming Zen 5 is as good as many expect, there are different prices that achieve different results.

- greatest total revenue. Let's call it $299
- greatest total profit. Let's say $399
- greatest margin. Let's say $549

It clearly makes sense to maximize total profit rather than to leave $$$ on the table to try for greatest margin.

Optimizing for highest margin only makes sense if there are capacity limits, that there is a tradeoff between different products, and you go with the product that can achieve the highest margin from the limited resource.

But we are not in the times of shortage. TSMC can double the output of Zen 5 desktops - no problem.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

If I were Intel that would be my psyop. Use industry assets to leak big numbers to get that hype train going supersonic. Then when reviews hit and the performance is half that, instead of garnering the applause it should, everyone is saltier than the dead sea because the train derailed in a spectacular explosion fit for a Michael Bay movie.

Even if it hits 40% I predict retail sales will be pedestrian. Just like Zen 4. Because DIY is mostly gamers first and foremost, and we will be waiting for the 3D models no matter what.

 

[Joe NYC]

Using micro center is disingenuous, as not everything is available to ship, and the store locations are sparse.
As I am looking for a 7900xtx, no option to ship from Micro Center.View attachment 96148

Well, I am lucky then. I have 2 MicroCenters within a subway ride and another 3 within an easy car drive.

 

[Joe NYC]

Apple sell phones and computers. AMD sells chips. Besides us at tech forums, the general public really has very little knowledge or desire to know about chips and performance.

AMD will set prices high to get highest margins in the beginning selling to all the 1 day buyers and until they are fully stocked, then they will evaluate their sales a regulate prices accordingly to maximize profits. Which is what any company would want.

I am not sure if this is valid. A stronger variable for long lasting success is first impression and initial reviews.

That first impression of Zen 4 was lousy. Overpriced chips, overpriced platform, overpriced DDR5. Day 1 sales were noise. Inconsequential.

It took almost a year and V-Cache release to compensate for that lousy first impression, and first year of sales were poor.

AMD tried the tactics you are suggesting again, with 7950x3d 2 months ahead of 7800x3d, to get those day 1 sales at the highest price. And again, it only resulted in lousy first impression poor sales and lost sales.

It could very well be that the buyers of these CPUs are not idiots, and these underhanded tactics are not swaying them...

 

[biostud]

I am not sure if this is valid. A stronger variable for long lasting success is first impression and initial reviews.

That first impression of Zen 4 was lousy. Overpriced chips, overpriced platform, overpriced DDR5. Day 1 sales were noise. Inconsequential.

It took almost a year and V-Cache release to compensate for that lousy first impression, and first year of sales were poor.

AMD tried the tactics you are suggesting again, with 7950x3d 2 months ahead of 7800x3d, to get those day 1 sales at the highest price. And again, it only resulted in lousy first impression poor sales and lost sales.

It could very well be that the buyers of these CPUs are not idiots, and these underhanded tactics are not swaying them...

It might be so, but this time motherboards and memory is readily available. Sure somebody will want a newer chipsets, but besides mandatory USB4 it doesn't sound like it will bring a ton extra.

I had originally thought to get a 7700X at launch, but because of the lackluster video card selection, and high initial platform cost I ended up waiting for the 7800X3D, but since these problems are not a major factor anymore which will be solved by waiting (bad priced video cards are apperently the norm :/), then I don't think AMD will face the same challenges this time.

 

[Kolifloro]

Assuming Zen 5 is as good as many expect, there are different prices that achieve different results.

- greatest total revenue. Let's call it $299
- greatest total profit. Let's say $399
- greatest margin. Let's say $549

It clearly makes sense to maximize total profit rather than to leave $$$ on the table to try for greatest margin.

Optimizing for highest margin only makes sense if there are capacity limits, that there is a tradeoff between different products, and you go with the product that can achieve the highest margin from the limited resource.

But we are not in the times of shortage. TSMC can double the output of Zen 5 desktops - no problem.

You COULD also add the ... 'increase market share' factor to your reasoning ...

Which might penalize Intel a bit ... and would help AMD in the medium term ...

 

[Joe NYC]

You COULD also add the ... 'increase market share' factor to your reasoning ...

Which might penalize Intel a bit ... and would help AMD in the medium term ...

Actually, I initially had "growing market share" on the line with max revenue, but deleted it.

Yes, that is definitely a variable. Taken worldwide, AMD probably doesn't even have a 1/2 of DIY + custom build market + OEM built gaming PCs. So there is a plenty of market share to gain. With the market share, also gain in mind share.

Which is worth something to the brand, and than having a brand can translate into better pricing. I think NVidia demonstrated how it is done in the dGPU market.

 

[yuri69]

I am not sure if this is valid. A stronger variable for long lasting success is first impression and initial reviews.

That first impression of Zen 4 was lousy. Overpriced chips, overpriced platform, overpriced DDR5. Day 1 sales were noise. Inconsequential.

It took almost a year and V-Cache release to compensate for that lousy first impression, and first year of sales were poor.

AMD tried the tactics you are suggesting again, with 7950x3d 2 months ahead of 7800x3d, to get those day 1 sales at the highest price. And again, it only resulted in lousy first impression poor sales and lost sales.

It could very well be that the buyers of these CPUs are not idiots, and these underhanded tactics are not swaying them...

For Zen 4 initial impression add the power/temp hike along with the not so popular "freq gains > IPC gains" formula.

TBH I still don't know how much important the DIY desktop market is besides its marketing influence. OEMs markets are way larger, right?

 

[SiliconFly]

TBH I still don't know how much important the DIY desktop market is besides its marketing influence

Not even 1 percent (just a fraction). But still very significant as it leads the way. Kinda clearly shows which components are better and/or preferred by power users.

 

[Gideon]

Xino is a lot more sceptical on the IPC front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774368837137576039

 

[Timorous]

Xino is a lot more sceptical on the IPC front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774368837137576039

View attachment 96169

Well if it is anything like zen 3 and zen 4 that will be below the average.

Zen 3 saw a 13% R20 1T bump over Zen 2 Vs a 19% average and Zen 4 saw a 9% R23 1T bump over Zen 3 Vs a 13% average.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Not even 1 percent (just a fraction). But still very significant as it leads the way. Kinda clearly shows which components are better and/or preferred by power users.

Where is that information sourced from? It may be factual, but it set off my BS detector.

 

[StefanR5R]

A stronger variable for long lasting success is first impression and initial reviews. [...] It could very well be that the buyers of these CPUs are not idiots, and these underhanded tactics are not swaying them...

Yes, it is important to impress.

[...] the DIY desktop market is [...]

[...] still very significant as it leads the way. Kinda clearly shows which components are better and/or preferred by power users.

Computer cases with glass windows. Mainboards with camo print. RAM sticks with LED lighting.

 

[SiliconFly]

Computer cases with glass windows. Mainboards with camo print. RAM sticks with LED lighting.

I think you forgot something like CPU/GPU.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

I think you forgot something like CPU/GPU.

And you forgot to answer the question. Either produce data to back up your claim or make it clear you pulled the numbers out of your butt.

 

[SiliconFly]

Where is that information sourced from? It may be factual, but it set off my BS detector.

It's empirical. How may people do you think buy CPUs & GPUs off the shelf every year and assemble their own systems? 100 million?

 

[SiliconFly]

...out of your butt.

May you do. I'm not into butt stuff.

 

[poke01]

My point is: I am against fake MSRPs with subsequent deep discounts. Makes the company look amateurish.

Apple products sell mostly at MSRP. That should be the goal of AMD establishing itself as a premium brand.

Apple also does this but with their retailers but not to extent that AMD does. After 2-4 months of the September release Best Buy and the rest discount newly released iPhones by $100-$200 dollars.

In Australia it’s the same as well, official third party resellers discount newly released iPhones after the initial launch period. Every few weeks Mac’s are sold at a 10% discount too.

The only difference with Apple is that the MSRP stays the same on Apples site.

Now, Apple does this to prop up sales and to move stock. There is no company in the world that doesn’t do sales. Either internally or externally. In spite of this Apple is considered a premium company because of the brand value that it holds.

I would consider AMD to be a premium company. More-so than Intel and those words I would have not said a decade ago.

What does Intel have in the public space to be considered a premium company?

It’s lost its leadership in every facet of its products in makes. From nodes, to CPUs, to GPUs.

When your competitor is falling behind you, you become the premium seller in that space. Being a premium company is also a matter of perception and in the CPU space AMD gained a good reputation. While prices do play a part in being seen as premium company it’s ultimately the products and their quality/performance that determine a company’s premium status.

 

[StefanR5R]

I think you forgot something like CPU/GPU.

CPUs are somewhat thankless, as they at best come with an impressive box, but then vanish under a cooler which steals the show. A GPU add-on card on the other hand brings its own defining cooler and lighting. The braided and combed cables which plug into it merely underline a GPU's beauty. So the CPU is more like a hidden treasure which value waits to be uncovered by CB and GB screenshots.

 

[tamz_msc]

Xino is a lot more sceptical on the IPC front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774368837137576039

View attachment 96169

Is that 1T perf uplift of 20% or IPC uplift of 20%?

If it is the former, then it'll be a tie with the 14900KS. If it is the latter, then AMD should pray that it has the f_max to spare because those numbers aren't gonna cut it against ARL.

 

[PJVol]

Expensive and copper gets the job done.

Let alone Cu and Ag conduct the heat better. The issue is with the oxide layer (sulfide in case of silver)

 

[RnR_au]

Xino is a lot more sceptical on the IPC front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774368837137576039

View attachment 96169

Looks like the tweet has been deleted.
Edit: ahh protected account... my bad.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Looks like the tweet has been deleted.

Xino always deletes stuff quickly