Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Geddagod]

RedGamingTech leaking today 16C Zen5 to score 49000 in CB23 MT and mid to high 2000 ST. Know he is not very trustworthy and may have just guessed this, extrapolated from previous jumps between generations.
Still, if true, interesting. I said i wont be buying Zen5, if it wont add more cores (which seems to be not happening), but this actually sounds like decent jump and consideration for purchase, if the CPU will be available for about the same price as 7950x. Could we see 5,8GHz all core clocks?

MT perf is coming from essentially all just IPC. Check out how Zen 4 clocks in all core workloads, it's pretty close to the ST peak frequencies of their respective skus as well.
Just saying, bcuz of the lack of clocks thing, it's pretty easy to extrapolate what RGT is essentially trying to say: IPC is ~30-40% higher.

 

[igor_kavinski]

It's a 4+4 10W ULP part.

So Intel's M1 wannabe. Does it have unified memory?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Does it have unified memory?

All APUs do since Kaveri (and I think SKL on Intel?).
Unified memory on APUs is super not special (at all).

 

[H433x0n]

RedGamingTech leaking today 16C Zen5 to score 49000 in CB23 MT and mid to high 2000 ST. Know he is not very trustworthy and may have just guessed this, extrapolated from previous jumps between generations.
Still, if true, interesting. I said i wont be buying Zen5, if it wont add more cores (which seems to be not happening), but this actually sounds like decent jump and consideration for purchase, if the CPU will be available for about the same price as 7950x. Could we see 5,8GHz all core clocks?

Doing the math on that, it doesn't really add up. The only way those numbers work is if it were severely limited by power/thermals.

 

[adroc_thurston]

The only way those numbers work is if it were severely limited by power/thermals.

MT numbers are not real.
1t kinda sorta is, though.

 

[H433x0n]

MT numbers are not real.
1t kinda sorta is, though.

I guess I'm reading too far into the "mid to high" 2000 ST scores. If it was something like ST=2800, then the MT score would be higher than what he's quoting unless all-core boost clocks are scaled down much more than they are with Zen 4.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I guess I'm reading too far into the "mid to high" 2000 ST scores. If it was something like ST=2800, then the MT score would be higher than what he's quoting unless all-core boost clocks are scaled down much more than they are with Zen 4.

Again, his nT numbers are off.
You should just focus on 1T for now since extreme-1t-perf is the explicit Zen5 design goal.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

From TPU
16C32T R9 7950X
ST CB R23: 2051
MT CB R23: 37523

+30% IPC: 2666 points in ST
+35% IPC: 2769 points in ST
+40% IPC: 2871 points in ST
This is without boost regression.

 

[Joe NYC]

GFX tile is N3e.

That would be interesting, and bold step on part of AMD. Like they mean business with the Strix Halo.

 

[adroc_thurston]

ST CB R23: 37523

that's nT.

Like they mean business with the Strix Halo.

They mean business with all their parts.

 

[eek2121]

From TPU
16C32T R9 7950X
ST CB R23: 37523

That is multithread fyi. ST is 2050-2060

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

That is multithread fyi. ST is 2050-2060

that's nT.

I know that. It was mistakenly uploaded before being finished.

 

[Joe NYC]

From TPU
16C32T R9 7950X
ST CB R23: 2051
MT CB R23: 37523

+30% IPC: 2666 points in ST
+35% IPC: 2769 points in ST
+40% IPC: 2871 points in ST
This is without boost regression.

Wow! If that happens, and it is a good proxy of other ST limited apps, I will definitely be doing back to back Zen 4 and Zen 5 upgrades.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Wow! If that happens, and it is a good proxy of other ST limited apps, I will definitely be doing back to back Zen4 and Zen 5 upgrades.

We don't know If Zen5 really has >=30% IPC increase.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Meh. Won't even break 3000 points in ST. Wake me up when that happens

 

[adroc_thurston]

We don't know If Zen5 really has >=30% IPC increase.

It really does.

I will definitely be doing back to back Zen 4 and Zen 5 upgrades.

If you have the money for it, that is.

 

[Joe NYC]

If you have the money for it, that is.

Only 8 core V-Cache model is something I would consider, which hopefully will be in the same $400 - $500 range as 7800x3d, and then, it would be an AM5 CPU swap, so it could be fairly cost effective upgrade.

To get the Europa Universalis 4 with M+T mod flying. Mod which turned the EU4 from Real Time Sim to Turn Based Sim.

Maybe Zen 5 can turn it back to Real Time Sim.

 

[adroc_thurston]

which hopefully will be in the same $400 - $500 range as 7800x3d

lmao.
Do not be naive.
$599 if you're lucky.

 

[Joe NYC]

lmao.
Do not be naive.
$599 if you're lucky.

For 8 core Zen 5 on N4 + V-Cache?

That should be a mainstream part, printing money for AMD even at $399.

 

[adroc_thurston]

For 8 core Zen 5 on N4 + V-Cache?

Yea.

That should be a mainstream part, printing money for AMD even at $399.

AMD can charge whatever they want since ARL isn't really a competition per se (you've seen pre-Si projections for it).

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

For 8 core Zen 5 on N4 + V-Cache?

That should be a mainstream part, printing money for AMD even at $399.

7800X3D already cost $449. There is no way AMD would go lower than that. If Intel won't be very competitive, then what @adroc_thurston said about price could turn out to be true.

 

[Joe NYC]

7800X3D already cost $449. There is no way AMD would go lower than that. If Intel won't be very competitive, then what @adroc_thurston said about price could turn out to be true.

I would be expecting the same price range for Zen 5 + V-Cache as Zen 4 + V-Cache. And I disagree with on this one with @adroc_thurston here.

7800x3d is AMD's most profitable part. $100 premium for V-Cache over non V-Cache 7700 carries profit like nothing else. There is less profit in increasing the price and selling far fewer parts, that already have beyond fantastic profit margins.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I would be expecting the same price range for Zen 5 + V-Cache as Zen 4 + V-Cache.

That's naive.
You've seen launch day Zen3 pricing well enough.

and selling far fewer parts

You can't sell fewer parts when you're the only option.

 

[Joe NYC]

That's naive.
You've seen launch day Zen3 pricing well enough.

I would not be going by the shortage pricing, and instead go on normal market situation.

You can't sell fewer parts when you're the only option.

Regardless of how much better AMD product might be vs. Intel, there are only so many units that sell in the market in $600 price band vs. $450 price band.

As far as selling more units vs selling fewer, it is not AMD who needs to invest big bucks in increasing the capacity. TSMC does that.

In fact, TSMC would just shift more of its existing capacity from Intel to AMD, if AMD product is really that desirable that Intel is not a viable option.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I would not be going by the shortage pricing, and instead go on normal market situation.

Zen3 had no shortage, look at the SRPs.

Regardless of how much better AMD product might be vs. Intel, there are only so many units that sell in the market in $600 price band vs. $450 price band.

You can command ASPs when you're in the lead.