taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
- 13,576
- 6
- 76
I am not ignoring, I answer them explicitly.I am not yelling. I am highlighing key points you keep ignoring.
(1) Forrester Research Inc. predicted in a report that desktop-computer sales will decline to 18.2 million in 2015
Good for them.
Consumer PC shipments declined by 4.4% during the first quarter of this year compared with last year
That is a first... Ok, I concede that point. But you still base a wrong assumption on it (you assume total amount of PCs is decreasing rather then market saturation)... and then you base a second wrong point upon the first wrong point (assume PC gaming is declining based on that). And a third wrong point tangential (you have been using the change in marketshare which included whole new devices s an indication until now, not actual change in sales figures). So at least I got you thinking on the right track.(3) Gartner: Western Europe PC market declines 11% in Q3 2011
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1847115
[qoute](4) Desktop discrete GPU sales are barely growing for AMD or Nvidia and even overall discrete GPU sales aren't doing great. [/quote]
Market saturation.. I have yet to see a card that justifies upgrading my GTX260 and keep in mind that those older cards do not poof out of existance. Even a shrinking market (lower amount of sales) in reusable non perishables is an indication of growth as each sale that isn't meant to replace a broken unit is a slight increase in the percentage of the population who owns such a non perishable.
BS, you are saying that if 90% of people had a laptop already sales would be identical? That people would throw away their slightly older but perfectly fine laptops to buy new ones?Laptops are growing faster in total sales period, hardly anything to do with penetration.
Market penetration is HUGE! It caused the RAM crisis with DDR2 that brought low one of the only 5 makers in the world and threatened to bring low others before DD3 came about. There are simply only so many people who need to buy something that doesn't break regularly.
When that older desktop is a quad core intel core2 w/4GB of RAM there is little reason for them to.It's not that people are throwing desktop in the trash, they are just not replacing older desktops as before.
And replacing older hardware is EXACTLY what throwing it in the trash means. You take your old PC, you throw it in the trash (if its relatively new-ish you might sell it second hand... might) and then buy a new one.
You don't get it, a lot of those sales are for people who own a desktop and never ever owned a latoptop before. And when they buy it they now own both a laptop and a desktop.No it can't be. Every day people are purchasing new electronic devices. Why are more people not choosing to buy desktops? You can't make the market saturation argument because people still replace their older laptops/tablets and smartphones
If 10% of the owners buy a replacement every year, and 90% of the people own a desktop. 9% of the total population buys a new desktop as a replacement for an old one. the 10% remaining will have a very small portion of it relent and finally buy their first desktop.
If 1% owns a tablet then 0.1% buys one as a replacement for an older tablet... the rest of the growth is some arbitrary amount from the 99% that don't own and never owned a tablet buying their first ever tablet.
This is what market saturation means. When everyone (who might be interested and not a luddite) owns one the only sales you have are replacements. Those are stable.
That is ridiculous. tablets might be growing the fastest, but the market for a tablet game (all tablet owners) vs a desktop game (all desktop owners) is well less then 1/10th the size. It is insanity to develop as you claim. It requires developing falling for the hype and not realizing market penetration plays a role.So what? That only proves that the growth is not coming in the desktop space, which means developers and publishers will focus on fastest growing market segments, not on stagnating segments.