One thing that's telling about the PC market is when you walk into a store like Gamestop.
when i was younger, these stores had tons of PC games on the shelf.
nowadays, there's like one tiny corner in the very back of the store with like two short shelves with PC games, if that.
the rest of the store is hundreds of console games.
when i was younger, these stores had tons of PC games on the shelf.
nowadays, there's like one tiny corner in the very back of the store with like two short shelves with PC games, if that.
the rest of the store is hundreds of console games.
taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
- 13,576
- 6
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Because DRM has nothing to do with piracy, it has to do with the second hand market.
Console games are still disc check, the disc is in, the disc is original, the game works even if second hand.
PC games come with half the game in a free DLC on day one, and other DRM tricks that are actually rather effective in demolishing the ability to resell them.
The gamestop model is to buy used games for next to nothing and sell them for near full price for tons of profit... of which the copyright holder sees not a single cent. And it denies them an actual sale (unlike piracy which is a potential sale lost, this is a definite lost sale... because the person in question did buy the game... only for slightly less money then full price. If unavailable they would have bought it from copyright holder when the price went down as the game aged)
This thread is not dead yet?
Who the hell goes to gamestop as a pc gamer?
Last time i went into one was back in 2007...it was console central i was the alienated one asking if they had any pc gamers with people looking at me like i was some weirdo.
Good thing walmart and bestbuy are door to door i find my games and i find them cheap
Who the hell goes to gamestop as a pc gamer?
Last time i went into one was back in 2007...it was console central i was the alienated one asking if they had any pc gamers with people looking at me like i was some weirdo.
Good thing walmart and bestbuy are door to door i find my games and i find them cheap
My young kids have a Wii and honestly for what the games are (cartoonish) they look great to me. Bought a used Xbox, hooked it up via HDMI to one 37" 1080p TV and tried the few FPS games we got with it and the picture quality nauseated me in comparison to what I was used to on the PC for same said games. Tried for a few hours to get used to the controls for FPS and then ran screaming back to my PC
RussianSensation
Elite Member
- Sep 5, 2003
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I hope this sheds more light that fewer and fewer people want to buy desktops anymore. While PC gaming isn't dying (because laptop gaming is still PC gaming, and that market will be a healthy 42% by 2015), desktop sales are declining as a % of the overall market. Another way to look at it, for developers, desktop PC gaming market will only comprise 18-19% of the entire market of potential gamers by 2015. The shocking part, is if you add Consoles to the chart below, by 2015 desktop PC gaming will likely shrink to less than 10% of the entire market.
That creates less and less incentive to make games that push the envelope on the desktop. If they make a game that's too demanding, only a faction of the 18% of the market will be able to play it. That won't make any sense, especially once next generation of consoles launch and next generation game development costs will rise even more.
Even in 2008-2009 when desktop gaming was still relatively healthy, most developers already threw in the towel and went cross-platform for pretty much most major franchisees. It's going to get worse I fear. Of course PC will still be the best for FPS, strategy and MMOs, but I expect to see even less PC exclusives.
Thus, the idea of swapping out videocards over time to keep up is a non-starter (for what soon will be 80% of the marketplace) as I said earlier in the thread. I am seeing this all around me - friends, co-workers, family, no one I know outside of some guys running heavy workstations/video apps wants a desktop. Even if people could get a $500 desktop with 2x GTX590s in it, they don't care. They'd rather own a mobile/portable device for work and a console for games.
Forrester research shows the desktop slice of the overall PC pie dropping from 38% in 2009 to a projected 27% for 2011), meaning the ability to swap out video cards and CPUs is gone for most PC users. By 2014-2015, desktop sales will only comprise 18-19% of the overall "PC market".
The majority of the reason we are seeing increasing sales for "PC gaming" is 2-fold:
1) Social/casual gaming revenue is growing exponentially (Zynga, etc.)
2) As I said earlier, > 50% of PC game sales are spread across just 2 key genres-- MMOs and Strategy. You can easily play MMOs and most strategy games on laptops. You don't need a GTX560 or HD6950 for that. You certainly don't need a desktop.
What we are going to see over the next 4-5 years is custom desktop PC building becoming an even more niche market. The 5-10 hours a week and casual gamers will increasingly shift to gaming on consoles, mobile devices (laptops) and tablets/smartphones. The hardcore desktop PC gamers will remain (i.e., guys like us who buy high-end GPUs). GPU sales will increase in the $200+ bracket as more and more people will be interested in gaming on multiple screens. Sales of GPUs in the < $100 will be almost entirely wiped out. Pretty much most of the growth in discrete GPU graphics will come from the mobile sector as more and more people will abandon desktop PC towers for a laptop with some discrete GPU and sufficient gaming capability for Starcraft, WOW, Diablo 3, etc.
In the next 4-5 years, the primary reasons for building desktops will be:
1) Workstation/server/critical gov't applications/defense space
2) Hardcore PC gamers who'll spend $1000+ to play Crysis 3 and HL3 maxed out.
3) Scientific/weather simulation and heavy-compute financial type/manufacturing & automotive design simulation applications (professional design/media/advertising/video space)
At my firm, all the employees get a new PC every 2 years free, as long as it's a laptop. The budget is up to $2,500 per person, but we are not allowed to buy desktops. The only guys running desktops are the Marketing/Media group, but all of them are using Apple.
I don't think this thread should be locked because we are all having a friendly discussion.
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taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
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The statistics I have seen clearly showed desktop gaming to be growing faster then any other market segment. What do you base your "statistic" on?
RussianSensation
Elite Member
- Sep 5, 2003
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The article provided above was compiled by a Forrester research (see link in post above) which projects that by 2015, desktop PC sales will only be 18% of the entire "PC market". Of that 18%, not everyone who will own a desktop PC will be a gamer. But even if we assume all of them are gamers, that just leaves developers with 18% slice of the entire market. Who is going to make top-of-the line games just to target a fraction of 18% of the market? In my opinion, once next generation of consoles arrive with DX11 capability, it'll become an era of DX11 for the next 3-4 years. Unless MS introduces something drastic with DX12/13, PC hardware will once again be held back by next generation of consoles.
Even if we get DX12 GPUs, game engines will be 2-3 years behind, as always. Just in the last 15-18 months we have started to see more DX11 games. DX11 isn't even mainstream.
Until 2013/2014, I fully expect PC graphics to pull away from current consoles, but eventually we'll enter yet another "consolized ports" period. I can't imagine too many Crysis style blockbusters when gaming budgets will easily exceed 100-200 million with marketing and so on.
Also, when you say PC gaming is growing faster than other markets, who did the projections? Was it a reputable 3rd party research firm? There was some info provided by NV on Tom's hardware about PC gaming flourishing.
For starters, NV is in the business of selling graphics cards; so their hockey stick projections should be taken with a grain of salt. Secondly, their projections tell us nothing about desktop PC gaming. The "PC gaming" market in its entirety is more broadly defined as:
1) laptops
2) smartphones
3) desktop PCs
4) tablets
So when NV provided the growth of the entire PC gaming market, they likely aren't just talking about desktop PCs with GTX580 GPUs.
Thirdly, "Nvidia doesn't break down its data according to genre or service, but much of this newly-discovered cash is coming from the social gaming crowd, as well as from new business models."
Even based on NV's own projections, it appears that a lot of growth is coming in casual gaming, not hardcore "Crysis" gaming crowd. While sales of PC gaming software are likely to increase, a lot of that is likely going to come from 3 other growing segments (being #1, 2 and 4). Desktop PC gaming will continue to decline as a % of the overall PC market. When I say PC, I mean personal computing devices. I don't think we can define PCs as traditionally desktop PCs at this point given that the market share of desktop PCs is shrinking year-over-year.
If you find any other info, feel free to drop it in this thread
. Opposing info is good too so we can discuss our findings.It would be interesting to see the breakdown of sales for games like BF3, Civ5, Starcraft 2, WOW across various PC devices. As laptops become even more powerful, I see even less incentive for the masses to spend $300-400 on desktop GPUs.
The only way I can see desktop PCs recapturing their glory days is if we see a huge revolution in graphics that would only run on discrete desktop GPUs. As next generation of consoles get even more powerful, the lines between great graphics will be blurred even more. The next step to far more realistic graphics requires 100x more powerful hardware. But even then, with Crysis 1 and BF3 and Witcher 2 being a handful of games that even bothered pushing the envelope on the PC in the last 4 years, even if we had a GTX990 today, I doubt developers would even bother to take advantage of it.
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Same here bro.. Its just too sick to play FPS games on ps3. I just love my pc!! And moreover its not very smooth gameplay on ps3, after sometime you will see that the games start to lag around. consoles are just not my thing!!
taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
- 13,576
- 6
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You are making ridiculous assumptions.
1. their projection is as baseless as nvidia's infamous projection on PC gaming growth and the death of console gaming by 2015. Those chart projections are simply not realistic representations of how humans act.
2. their research shows percentages of total sales which does not account for how many people get both a desktop and laptop. (both can be growing and get their results if laptops grow faster).
3. their research has nothing to do with GAMING. You are the one making it up.
Every gaming study I have seen is showing PC gaming to be growing much faster then any console.
taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
- 13,576
- 6
- 76
Sure let me pull them out of my nether regions.
A quick google search brings:
http://software.intel.com/en-us/blogs/2010/04/19/hear-that-knocking-sound-its-pc-gaming/
http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/97047-thank-you-farmville-pc-gaming-will-soon-overtake-consoles
And just in comparison. Noone has offered a study showing the opposite. Russian sensation literally made it up based on a study showing laptop sales growing at a faster rater then desktop sales.
GaiaHunter
Diamond Member
- Jul 13, 2008
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Yeah the study RS linked to only shows percentage of the market without showing the total market.
The fact is laptops, tablets and notebooks are growing at a faster pace than desktops and outselling them but that is obvious since the starting base for those devices was much smaller due to the fact that until recently the performance of those devices was limited and/or the price was too high.
If I have a starting base of 10 and I keep adding 2 a year, the growth in the first year is 20% and the next year will be 16.6% and the following will be 14.3% and so on.
What that study shows is that the desktop market is more saturated on the US and probably many of the desktop sales are replacements - when one already has a desktop computer makes more sense to buy a laptop/tablet than a second desktop.
But that doesn't magically make the installed desktop base disappear and exactly what are the desktop requirements to run games at 30 fps and console resolutions?
I think that for Gaming discrete GPUs are a better indicator although as IGPs become more capable it might be enough.
The fact is laptops, tablets and notebooks are growing at a faster pace than desktops and outselling them but that is obvious since the starting base for those devices was much smaller due to the fact that until recently the performance of those devices was limited and/or the price was too high.
If I have a starting base of 10 and I keep adding 2 a year, the growth in the first year is 20% and the next year will be 16.6% and the following will be 14.3% and so on.
What that study shows is that the desktop market is more saturated on the US and probably many of the desktop sales are replacements - when one already has a desktop computer makes more sense to buy a laptop/tablet than a second desktop.
But that doesn't magically make the installed desktop base disappear and exactly what are the desktop requirements to run games at 30 fps and console resolutions?
I think that for Gaming discrete GPUs are a better indicator although as IGPs become more capable it might be enough.
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RussianSensation
Elite Member
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Right, but if your % of the entire market is expected to shrink over time, that means you are losing market share. It doesn't mean that desktop PC sales themselves will shrink, but if they grow slower than the rest of the market, their importance will only diminish over time when it comes time to plan development budgets to allocate to various platforms.
The video game sales market as a whole is of course expected to grow, in fact to $81 Billion by 2016. But I think a lot of people are underestimating how much of that growth is coming from games for mobile devices such as mobile phones, tablets, music players and other devices that can play games as a secondary feature. Even in NV's projections, they themselves stated that most of that growth is coming from online social gaming crowd.
It is true that the study I linked doesn't focus on gaming but it highlights the growing social trends of people gravitating towards mobile devices, and fast. Even if 18% of the desktop PCs = 100% of them are all gamers, that's still only 18% of the market. I don't see how that can be ignored. Even discrete GPU sales are shifting more and more towards mobile. Soon there will be a revolution for graphics in smartphones and tablets - it's just a matter of time. AMD is going after APU and Fusion for this very reason. The market for powerful desktop discrete GPUs will be there but it's going to get very small vs. all the other devices on which people play will be able to play games.
For example, if we had 100 people, of which 45 owned a GTX580 and 55 owned mobile devices, but in 5 years 60 people owned a GTX990 and 300 people owned mobile devices, the industry as a whole will have changed entirely. All market data points to the popularity of the desktop declining vs. other devices.
They are not just growing faster relative to themselves because their base was small. Total notebook sales already exceed desktop sales every year. And as prices for mobile device keep falling, smartphones and tablets and laptops and consoles get even more powerful, even more and more people will abandon desktop PC gaming in favor of these other alternatives. Even if desktop PC sales grow by 2-3% a year, if other markets grow at 15-20%+, that's where developers will shift their focus. We have already seen almost all the major game publishers abandon PC gaming as the primary platform. Only a handful such as Dice and Blizzard still prioritize the PC.
The fastest growing area for publishers will be games on smartphones and tablets - the best chance for the industry to win over new consumers who would never play a console game or the desktop.
The desktop market won't disappear. No one is really arguing that. But if the desktop market was 45-50% of the entire market before, and then it shifts to below 20%, well that just means it will become less and less important in the grand scheme of things. For example, if the desktop market grows at 2-3%, but smartphone/tablet/laptop market grows at 15-20%, where are you going to throw your development $ budget? Are you going to allocate 45-50% of your budget to 20% of the market? No. We have already seen this since 2008. PC gaming has changed dramatically since Crysis era. Less and less PC exclusives and far less games that push the graphics envelope. From 1998-2007, you would find your graphics card completely obsolete after just 2 years. We scrambled to upgrade. I remember, back then upgrading your GPU meant playing Quake 3 Arena and not playing it at all. Now, the difference is playing a game with 4 or 8x AA at 2560x1600 OR playing it at 1080P on High. Big deal. A $140 HD6870 has no problems with almost any game unless you absolutely need Tessellation or AA. Back then, a $140 graphics card was good enough for 8 months, tops.
Right now, PC graphics have stagnated. Dirt 3 looks almost the same as Dirt 1. Crysis 2 barely looks better than Crysis 1. BF3 is maxed out easily on a 6970/GTX570 without 4x MSAA. HD5870 is more than 2 years old and plows through 95% of games at 1080P. Do you really think when next generation of consoles launch, the developers will actually prioritize the PC gaming platform more? Why would they?
Agreed. However, we should pay more attention to sales of discrete GPUs for laptops. That market will soon surpass discrete GPUs on the desktop.
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RussianSensation
Elite Member
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What assumptions? I am just focusing on desktop PC sales.
All major indicators point to the same thing: desktop PCs are declining in importance in the modern world vs. other personal computing devices. Consumers are shifting to the cloud, to laptops, to smartphones, to tablets. The era of glorious desktop PC is far behind us -- the high-end desktop PCs will soon become a niche market. Even since 2008, not projected, but actual PC sales show that PC desktop market as a whole is growing slower than other markets, as a result shrinking as a % of the whole market. That's not assumptions, that's facts.
It shows that people are currently buying more laptops and are expected to buy more laptops in the future vs. desktops. This is because the % of desktop is shrinking relative to the notebook segment.
Based on Forrester Research market data:
Let's assume the annual rate of growth for the entire market of PC devices is 10% per year (that's way too high, but for simplicity sake).
In 2008, out of 100 people, 45 (45%) bought desktops, 45 (45%) bought laptops.
In 2009, out of 110 people, ~ 42 (38%) bought desktops, ~ 48 (44%) bought laptops.
In 2010, out of 121 people, ~ 39 (32%) bought desktops, ~ 53 (44%) bought laptops.
In 2011, out of 133 people, ~ 36 (27%) are expected to buy desktops, ~ 59 (44%) bought laptops.
In reality, if the Personal Computing devices grow at 2-5%, instead of 10%, that doesn't make desktop PCs look any better; they are still shrinking. The laptop market is now more important than the desktop market.
Using simple mathematics, it becomes obvious the desktop market is shrinking as % of the entire market. As desktop market becomes a smaller fraction of the entire market, the gaming desktop PC market will also become a smaller fraction of the overall PC gaming market.
What am I making up? I never said their research is related to gaming. I stated from the beginning their research shows that desktop PC sales are shrinking as a % of the overall market (i.e., growing slower than everything else). Even if 100% of all desktop PC users were gamers, that's at most going to be 18% of the entire market for personal computing devices.
So far you have not provided any data to support your view that:
1) Focus on desktop PC gaming will become more important for developers
2) The growth in desktop PC gaming will surpass the growth of gaming in consoles, laptops, smartphones or tablets
3) Show that desktop PC gaming is currently the leading platform for publishers or developers given the expected current and future market trends.
In fact, the data you provided actually supports my view that PC gaming growth is going to come from mobile devices such as Notebooks/Laptops/Smartphones, not from desktop PCs.
You keep basing your argument on the entire "PC gaming market" vs. consoles. But if we break down the PC gaming market itself, the desktop PCs in it are only 1/4 to 1/5 of that market segment, with the remainder being occupied by laptops, smartphones and tablets. By 2013, even Intel forecasts Enthusiast Laptops to surpass Enthusiast desktops.
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taltamir
Lifer
- Mar 21, 2004
- 13,576
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1. Stop yelling, that doesn't make you more right.
2. I clearly listed your ridiculous assumptions and this wasn't on the list. It is an assumption but not as ridiculous. Since I clearly stated what your ridiculous assumptions are so why are you using a strawman?
3. Desktops are growing slower, but they are still growing. Laptops can grow faster due to having had much less market penetration. This whole "people are throwing their desktops in the trash to buy a laptop" thing is rubbish as desktops are still growing. Them growing slower can easily be attributed to market saturation. When a person buys a laptop their desktop remains. When they buy a tablet their laptop and desktop remain. When they buy a smartphone their desktop and laptop and tablet remain.
Percent is shrinking, total amount is increasing. This is why it is so important to actually understand what percent means.
In 2007 tablets did not exist. In 2011 they are 13% of the market...
In 2007 Desktops sold 45%, in 2011 they sold 27%...
The 27% of 2011 is MORE then then the 45% in 2007... The dekstop market is actually growing, the chart changed.
The claim, the false fact, that desktop gaming has decreased. As can be clearly seen in the quote below
Also, you seem to use the word fact about 5 times per post... and each and every one of them is made up by you on the spot. This is not how facts work!
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SirPauly
Diamond Member
- Apr 28, 2009
- 5,187
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Because it's awesome? Somehow I doubt you were alive during the 80s and 90s.
Relative to what a job pays video cards are not prohibitively expensive.
Unless, you are dating a high maintenance woman that can suck your wallet dry!!
Oh sorry, wrong topic
RussianSensation
Elite Member
- Sep 5, 2003
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I am not yelling. I am highlighing key points you keep ignoring.
(1) Forrester Research Inc. predicted in a report that desktop-computer sales will decline to 18.2 million in 2015, down from 20.5 million units sold in 2010, while tablet sales will more than quadruple to 44 million in 2015, up from 10.3 million last year.
http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=461338
(2) Consumer PC shipments declined by 4.4% during the first quarter of this year compared with last year, but they were partially offset by 3% growth in commercial segments. The decline in PC shipments was more pronounced in the mature regions of Western Europe, the United States, and Canada, which saw an overall projected decline of 10.3% in 2011.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/230200053
Fast forward to Q3, 2011, same thing:
(3) Gartner: Western Europe PC market declines 11% in Q3 2011
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1847115
(4) Desktop discrete GPU sales are barely growing for AMD or Nvidia and even overall discrete GPU sales aren't doing great.
"PC market sales" would be even worse if it was not for growth in commercial PC sales and notebook/netbook PCs. Personal desktop sales are declining as laptops, smartphones, tablets are surpassing personal desktops as devices that consumers want.
Laptops are growing faster in total sales period, hardly anything to do with penetration. If tomorrow 100 new customers decide to get a new personal computing device, at least 44% of those will choose a laptop. You keep ignoring the fact that less people want a desktop, but there is no point in arguing with you since you provided no evidence/research to back up any of your opinions.
It's not that people are throwing desktop in the trash, they are just not replacing older desktops as before. Also, when it comes to buying new devices, they are more likely to purchase smartphones, laptops and tablets. Desktops are therefore becoming less important as a % of the entire personal computing market. You are the only one who keeps denying it. I think you live in a bubble. The future is mobile computing, not desktop computing.
No it can't be. Every day people are purchasing new electronic devices. Why are more people not choosing to buy desktops? You can't make the market saturation argument because people still replace their older laptops/tablets and smartphones. Why are they not eager to replace their desktops? Because at least 4/5th of the market no longer wants desktops.
So what? That only proves that the growth is not coming in the desktop space, which means developers and publishers will focus on fastest growing market segments, not on stagnating segments. Even desktop discrete GPU sales for NV and AMD stagnated (see chart above).
Please show math to prove this. I already used 10% market growth and 100 people market size as reference using Forrester research. The desktop market is shrinking.
I know exactly how graphs and %s work, but I don't think you do (see math below). So far, there isn't a single data point or survey or research you provided that shows that desktop PCs or gaming desktop PC market is growing.
That's debatable. The market data doesn't back up those claims.
The PC market as a whole may be growing partly because notebook and commercial PC sales are growing. Consmer desktop PC sales are not growing, but are actually declining, relative to themselves and relative to the entire market of personal computing devices. Even aside from current market data, market share mathematics also show that desktop sales are expected to decline.
Assume market size in 2008 was 100 Million people on the planet looking to buy a new electronic device.
In 2008, if market size is 100 million people:
Desktop sales = 45M
Notebook = 45M
Netbooks = 9-10 Million (rounded).
By 2011, using compounded rate of growth of 10% per annum, the market size would grow to 100 million * (1.1)^(3 Year period from 2008 to 2011) = 133 Million.
By 2011 then, out of 133 million people:
Desktop sales ~ 36 Million
Notebook sales ~ 57 Million
Netbook sales ~ 23 Million
Tablet sales ~ 17 Million
The only way for Desktop sales to have increased from 2008 to 2011 despite their market share falling from 45% to 27% is if the entire market was growing at an annual rate of greater than 18.5%. If the market grew from 100 million (2008) to 167 million (2011), then with 27% market share, the desktop sales would actually be 45 Million, which is still flat from 2008.
Long-term, I have little doubt that as the economy improves, desktop PC sales will start growing again (and business start replacing their desktops), however, the entire desktop PC market as a whole will become less important as portable consumer devices will become the future of computing. Since we have already seen a declining focus on the PC platform from developers since 2008, at least in the short-term, I see no reasoning as to why the desktop PC gaming platform will suddenly explode. While the desktop PC won't die, it will no longer be at the forefront of innovation or trendy to own. If anything, I think more and more people will buy enthusiast laptops with discrete GPUs.
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Arachnotronic
Lifer
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RussianSensation
Elite Member
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Also, if we look at the media / TV situation right now, it's not yet convenient enough. We can get a bunch of devices that help us stream media like Roku, Boxee Box and so on, perhaps a BluRay player in some households, but all of that is just adding many devices to one central electronic device in your house. I believe eventually MS and Sony will push their consoles even more as Media Hubs, with even more robust content streaming, social media integration, etc.
Now we can easily pick up a streaming devices like WD Live TV/Roku/etc. for $50-100, a Blu-Ray player for $50-100, etc. But in the future, why would you need all of those devices when you could just connect a $300 console that can do all of that and provide you access to the Internet on a 60 inch Plasma? I think the next generation of consoles will bring us even closer to Media entertainment hubs. I'll still upgrade my PC, but I don't see the point of buying all these other devices anymore when I can get a next generation console and get occasional gaming on it as a bonus.
Now we can easily pick up a streaming devices like WD Live TV/Roku/etc. for $50-100, a Blu-Ray player for $50-100, etc. But in the future, why would you need all of those devices when you could just connect a $300 console that can do all of that and provide you access to the Internet on a 60 inch Plasma? I think the next generation of consoles will bring us even closer to Media entertainment hubs. I'll still upgrade my PC, but I don't see the point of buying all these other devices anymore when I can get a next generation console and get occasional gaming on it as a bonus.
SirPauly
Diamond Member
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