Why did Trump win and what will be the response of the Democratic party?

[Perknose]

It's the economy stupid!

No, not the GDP or the overall unemployment rate, but the goddamn price of eggs. Essentially ignorant, low information voters do know one thing, their grocery bill.

Plus, the transgender ads the repubs ran were visceral killers. News flash, many Latinos and blacks are culturally conservative.

Finally, black men are just as knee-jerk stupid and easily emotionally manipulated as white yahoos. T-Rump strong, T-Rump cool.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The assumption is that Trump didn't increase his vote from previous years. So, these voters assuming finally "we got him" then they don't vote

Do you have a polling citation on this or is it just feels? Because Democrats had record registrations and the energy was clearly there.

 

[K1052]

Any conversation about what happened really needs to include this context:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1854498882438181265

 

[NostaSeronx]

Do you have a polling citation on this or is it just feels? Because Democrats had record registrations and the energy was clearly there.

Keep it simple stupid. The only reason democrats ever lose is because they DO NOT turnout. As since September 2024: Trump on track to lose. "Trump still hasn’t figured out how to run against Kamala Harris, and that’s helping Harris to secure states where Biden was in trouble." Hyper-partisan parties lead to confirmation bias on media sources. Social media for Harris was already calling the victory for Harris. The Harris' trim only needs a small loss to lose against a grower like Trump.

Republicans for Harris, Independents for Harris, etc. Gave them the okay, we can relax and not vote. There is no way Trump is going to win. Basically, by the time it started showing this reality they were already two months in a dream.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Keep it simple stupid. The only reason democrats ever lose is because they DO NOT turnout. As since September 2024: Trump on track to lose. "Trump still hasn’t figured out how to run against Kamala Harris, and that’s helping Harris to secure states where Biden was in trouble." Hyper-partisan parties lead to confirmation bias on media sources. Social media for Harris was already calling the victory for Harris. The Harris' trim only needs a small loss to lose against a grower like Trump.

Republicans for Harris, Independents for Harris, etc. Gave them the okay, we can relax and go home. There is no way Trump is going to win. Basically, by the time it started showing this reality they were already two months in a dream.

Sorry but I still need proof, not feels. I need to see voters on the street saying they didn't turn up despite being a battleground district because they thought it was in the bag and they could stay home.

The 'didn't turn up' can just as much be used to describe Republican losses, so it's an incomplete statement.

 

[K1052]

Keep it simple stupid. The only reason democrats ever lose is because they DO NOT turnout. As since September 2024: Trump on track to lose. "Trump still hasn’t figured out how to run against Kamala Harris, and that’s helping Harris to secure states where Biden was in trouble." Hyper-partisan parties lead to confirmation bias on media sources. Social media for Harris was already calling the victory for Harris. The Harris' trim only needs a small loss to lose against a grower like Trump.

Republicans for Harris, Independents for Harris, etc. Gave them the okay, we can relax and not vote. There is no way Trump is going to win. Basically, by the time it started showing this reality they were already two months in a dream.

I know literally zero people who exhibited the confidence you describe.

 

[NostaSeronx]

I know literally zero people who exhibited the confidence you describe.

It is very simple to find out why Democrats lose. The largest voting bloc is for the democratic candidate. The only way they lose significantly is that they had a huge mess up. Which would show that bloc voting for the opponent. However, for this election and Clinton's we did not see that. Instead, it is because the growth in vote for Harris was stamped out by toxic positivity. With the mainstream media calling for victory in Clinton's race early, we saw the huge drop in votes. So, it is a known issue that the democratic candidate voting bloc can have an attack vector like this.

Harris/Clinton bloc; 70% get news from the mainstream media, 20% get from alternative, social media-internet whatever. Which reflects the loss on growth on both candidates. Harris' loss is less significant than Clinton's loss in the battleground. However, that was enough to cull the Harris' voter from going to vote and keeping the voter CAGR stable.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

It is very simple to find out why Democrats lose. The largest voting bloc is for the democratic candidate. The only way they lose significantly is that they had a huge mess up. Which would show that bloc voting for the opponent. However, for this election and Clinton's we did not see that. Instead, it is because the growth in vote for Harris was stamped out by toxic positivity.

Or maybe we're wrong, all the phantom voters that never show up for the polls are actually hard right, far more than we are now. They're just waiting for that proper christofascist dictatorial candidate that is going to 'make people things again' (I'm copyrighting MPTA, back off) to cast their vote.

 

[Greenman]

What should it be if not what you predict it to be?

I doubted that Trump would win because I could not bring myself to believe we were that deeply morally rotten as a country but it turns out, in my opinion, we are that far gone from civic decency.

My partial answer:

I see a population on average, so fucked by the system they were taught to worship they want to burn it down rather than anybody else be happy.

I see a population so full of self contempt at the guilt laid on them that their failure is there own fault that they need to blame others for it by punishing live itself.

You can't sell much to people content with little but you can make a fortune of of sick and needy people. The misery of the masses is profit for the rich.

Of course the day may come when everything burns down and the rich won't be able to buy their way out.

That's a pretty grim outlook that I'm very happy I don't share.

 

[eelw]

I want to remind people that sharing ideas in this thread is about understanding the republican frame of mind. It is important to understand what guides people's decisions even if you don't agree with the wisdom of their decisions.

Well think with a less ignorant right wing mind then. The important thing, stop labeling migrants as illegals. All of them are fleeing horrible conditions for a better life. Actual illegal crossings are being stopped at higher rates currently than 2016-2020. The stupid wall did nothing to stop it.

Next the economy. Again the ignorance that it was better last administration is false. Just because the price of milk and gas was higher, stop being narrow minded and immediately blame the current administration. Inflation is a world wide phenomenon. And the blame lies with foreign allies to the president elect for the higher gas prices. They are manipulating the world wide market to benefit themselves.

And that ties into the war. Lol are you that blind and think Putin and other authoritarian leaders actually respect the president elect? They are using him as a puppet. Just like how he’s using his base as puppets.

Lol more ignorance about abusing the office of the presidency. Who’s the one that curried favour and financially benefitted from foreign countries by booking hotel rooms that he owns but not using them?

And on to the wokeness. It’s your side that is inflating the issue. It’s your side that has groomed the misogyny and racism. What’s so hard to give people the freedom to choose? Their are more religions than just Christianity. Nope bigoted from apparently the group that accepts others. Apparently only when you conform to your narrow views.

But what does that say about your base to support such a corrupt and unethical individual? The world is laughing at the US.

 

[gothuevos]

I know literally zero people who exhibited the confidence you describe.

Literally was plastered all over the airwaves/internet/social media/TV..."do not get confident, go out and vote."

We'll see what the final PV count is...but she is going to fall well short of what Biden pulled. Remarkable that many people simply stayed home?

Again I'm not disputing the results, but it just doesn't align with the turnout numbers, early vote numbers, etc. Blue mirage LOL.

 

[gothuevos]

Or maybe we're wrong, all the phantom voters that never show up for the polls are actually hard right, far more than we are now. They're just waiting for that proper christofascist dictatorial candidate that is going to 'make people things again' (I'm copyrighting MPTA, back off) to cast their vote.

I think this element certainly exists in our country and is likely a larger share of the electorate than people are comfortable admitting to themselves.

But I also get the impression they are pretty dedicated voters and they have already been voting GOP this entire time. And they also celebrate every time the GOP takes another step towards illiberalism.

 

[K1052]

Literally was plastered all over the airwaves/internet/social media/TV..."do not get confident, go out and vote."

We'll see what the final PV count is...but she is going to fall well short of what Biden pulled. Remarkable that many people simply stayed home?

Again I'm not disputing the results, but it just doesn't align with the turnout numbers, early vote numbers, etc. Blue mirage LOL.

There are millions of votes yet to count so I'm going to reserve judgement on this topic till numbers firm up a bit.

For all the red wave stuff around on the Rs might eke out a 2-3 seat house majority (though TBD) and win 2-3 senate seats. Sure a win is a win but in this environment that swung so heavily to Trump it's actually not a great performance.

 

[gothuevos]

That's a pretty grim outlook that I'm very happy I don't share.

Why not?

Look I'm not going to shame you for whoever you voted for, but the in the past 8 years the GOP has taken a massive lurch towards embracing authoritarianism and illiberalism. And still have not really been repudiated by voters. In fact they were most recently rewarded quite handsomly.

So what incentive does the GOP have to change? Until they cross a red line that is utterly unacceptable to a large mass of voters, they will continue to push the envelope. Hell, that red line might not even exist.

 

[gothuevos]

There are millions of votes yet to count so I'm going to reserve judgement on this topic till numbers firm up a bit.

For all the red wave stuff around on the Rs might eke out a 2-3 seat house majority (though TBD) and win 2-3 senate seats. Sure a win is a win but in this environment that swung so heavily to Trump it's actually not a great performance.

Regardless she will fall short of 81 million and for an election with so much on the line, is really quite staggering the lack of turnout/agency by voters. Like the article I linked yesterday, "enough Americans simply don't care." And far too many have outright embraced illiberalism. The combination is enough.

And while they may be "narrow" majorities, Trump will get his people to fall in line and vote en masse for whatever legislation he proposes. Similar to DeSantis in Florida, Congress will simply be a rubber stamp for whatever they want to push through. For at least 2 years. Will be devastating. And if they get around to further changing voter rules, I am sure they will find a way to try to enshrine permanent rule through whatever loopholes they can exploit.

 

[gothuevos]

Also realize now that the Trump administration can remake the education system in this country to whatever they want it to look like. Coupled with them owning the information space (Musk, X), they now also have the perfect environment moving forward to continue to churn out new, angry, illiberal voters.

It was never about "eliminating indoctrination." It was simply about implementing THEIR indoctrination.

 

[Greenman]

Why not?

Look I'm not going to shame you for whoever you voted for, but the in the past 8 years the GOP has taken a massive lurch towards embracing authoritarianism and illiberalism. And still have not really been repudiated by voters. In fact they were most recently rewarded quite handsomly.

So what incentive does the GOP have to change? Until they cross a red line that is utterly unacceptable to a large mass of voters, they will continue to push the envelope. Hell, that red line might not even exist.

I haven't noted that lurch into authoritarianism. I have seen a rejection to exposing children to cross dressers, and a very serious concern over administering puberty blockers or performing unnecessary surgery on minors. I have no issue with either of those. I've also noted increasing frustration with immigration, and I understand that point of view.

 

[RalphTheCow]

There are millions of votes yet to count so I'm going to reserve judgement on this topic till numbers firm up a bit.

For all the red wave stuff around on the Rs might eke out a 2-3 seat house majority (though TBD) and win 2-3 senate seats. Sure a win is a win but in this environment that swung so heavily to Trump it's actually not a great performance.

Oh yeah. The Guardian says at nearly 68 million and still counting, she is expected to far underperform Biden’s 2020 81 million.

 

[K1052]

Regardless she will fall short of 81 million and for an election with so much on the line, is really quite staggering the lack of turnout/agency by voters. Like the article I linked yesterday, "enough Americans simply don't care." And far too many have outright embraced illiberalism. The combination is enough.

And while they may be "narrow" majorities, Trump will get his people to fall in line and vote en masse for whatever legislation he proposes. Similar to DeSantis in Florida, Congress will simply be a rubber stamp for whatever they want to push through. For at least 2 years. Will be devastating. And if they get around to further changing voter rules, I am sure they will find a way to try to enshrine permanent rule through whatever loopholes they can exploit.

I think the idea that the house Rs will become way better at passing meaningful legislation on partisan lines with a slimmer majority than they have now is not likely to be true.

 

[HomerJS]

72,643,979 vs 67,959,768

72M is close to Trump's vote total in 2020. Democratic voters didn't show up.

 

[K1052]

Fondly remembering people discussing the collapse in D voting in 2012 before California counted its votes.

 

[fskimospy]

Incomes Hit a Record High and Poverty Reached a Record Low in 2019 – The White House

trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/economy-jobs/ Probably this. (The movement of the market is post-Obama shadow, nothing Trump did actually improved growth from Obama)

It is literally not that hard to have internet literacy either. Yeesh, my fellow distinguished forum members get better.

It is funny how hard Trumpkins worked to pretend he wasn’t president in 2020.

He failed at the one thing the president is supposed to do.

 

[fskimospy]

72,643,979 vs 67,959,768

72M is close to Trump's vote total in 2020. Democratic voters didn't show up.

People really need to stop posting this misinformation.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Or maybe we're wrong, all the phantom voters that never show up for the polls are actually hard right, far more than we are now. They're just waiting for that proper christofascist dictatorial candidate that is going to 'make people things again' (I'm copyrighting MPTA, back off) to cast their vote.

The phantom voter is not going to be right-winged. The loss of voter participation was the democratic voting bloc. While the republican voter and independent voter bloc rose.

 

[fskimospy]

The phantom voter is not going to be right-winged. The loss of voter participation was the democratic voting bloc. While the republican voter and independent voter bloc rose.

People really need to stop repeating this. Once all the votes are counted you will see democratic turnout was broadly similar to 2020.