What will be the GOP/Trump October Surprise?

[Amused]

On Oct 28th 2016 James Comey announced a phony FBI reopening of the buttery males investigation into Clinton in a very obvious and successful attempt to throw the election in favor of the GOP.

So what, if anything (doing nothing seems HIGHLY unlikely) will Trump, the Justice dept, the FBI and the GOP pull this time?

You kinda know it will be in the last week before election day. Just close enough to scuttle ANY time to debunk before voters head to polls.

Will they be able to pull of something as earth shaking and poll busting as Comey's announcement?

Will Trump be able to bully Barr into announcing some kind of investigation or making some kind of Trumped up arrests of his rivals?

(Thanks Woolfe9998) And will it have the same, if ANY impact? Polls actually shifted a bit after the debate meaning there IS still movement in the polls.

What say you?

Tangent: Is Trump's HUGE opposition to mail-in and early voting because it ruins his attempt to manipulate the election with another fabricated last week October surprise?

 

[SmCaudata]

I dont think Trump has to "bully Barr." Barr has enough anti-democracy tendencies to come up with something on his own.

 

[woolfe9998]

Whatever they're planning, and I'm sure they're planning something, is not likely to work the way the Comey letter did in 2016. There were actually undecided voters then. Not many this time. Everyone has made up their minds. People who don't like Trump, which is the majority, do not trust him. They won't trust whatever he does here. It will only play to his base.

 

[woodman1999]

"Vaccine"

 

[Amused]

Whatever they're planning, and I'm sure they're planning something, is not likely to work the way the Comey letter did in 2016. There were actually undecided voters then. Not many this time. Everyone has made up their minds. People who don't like Trump, which is the majority, do not trust him. They won't trust whatever he does here. It will only play to his base.

Excellent point! Question added!

Polls actually shifted a bit after the debate meaning there IS still movement in the polls. So there is that...

 

[woolfe9998]

Excellent point! Question added!

Polls actually shifted a bit after the debate meaning there IS still movement in the polls. So there is that...

Right, my assumption is that the best Trump can do between now and 11/3 is to negate what Biden has gained these past two weeks. Meaning we go into it with Biden showing +7.5 on the PV. If we further assume the polls are off by 2 in Biden's favor, then the election still won't be that close. And that is likely the best case scenario for Trump.

 

[Grooveriding]

The GOP will reveal that Devin Nunes has discovered Bigfoot in Hillary Clinton's basement guarding the emails. Qanon will then reveal that with further investigation, they have discovered that Bigfoot is in fact Hunter Biden in disguise and the #2 in a paedophile cabal led by none other than Joe Biden and Obama themselves.

Trump will be dispatched in a Superman suit hopped up on dexamethasone to make the arrests himself, all televised on Fox and OAN via live stream.

 

[uclaLabrat]

The polls have already shown the October surprise, trump got covid. Covid is the defining issue of this administration and his incompetence has been laid bare. National polls are up like 2.5 points for biden since trump caught the rona.

 

[Commodus]

Whatever they're planning, and I'm sure they're planning something, is not likely to work the way the Comey letter did in 2016. There were actually undecided voters then. Not many this time. Everyone has made up their minds. People who don't like Trump, which is the majority, do not trust him. They won't trust whatever he does here. It will only play to his base.

I'm not even sure the Trump campaign has much to offer. A vaccine or surefire treatment seems like an increasingly remote chance; there have been much more concerted efforts at fighting Russian hacking and misinformation campaigns; and there isn't an obvious "but her emails." Trump's attempt to pin Biden over Hunter's supposed crimes (he didn't commit any) fell flat.

I'm not ruling out a surprise. But the longer this campaign has gone on, the more evidence has surfaced suggesting that Trump's win was a fluke, the confluence of overconfidence from the left ("surely no one would vote for someone as incompetent and malicious as Trump!"), a convenient scandal or two (even if Russia helped fuel them) and enough people who confused a reality TV star's image with actual talent.

I just hope enough people in the right states have seen the light.

 

[vi edit]

I'll regret saying this, but I actually feel like we're sort of at a point where there isn't anything that is going to shift a needle enough for Trump. At least on things within Trump's control. We've already got 5-7 million votes in. Both candidates have plenty of history for voters to draw an opinion on. There is very little in the way of new information that could legitimately swing away a ton of votes from Joe. That said, he's in the lead, it's his to lose. He can still say something absolutely stupid that will cost him a few votes, but nothing significant. I think we're in a very different phase of the election than we were at the same time in 2016.

 

[Thump553]

Either his Russian investigation retaliation indictments or the vaccine approval. Apparently the attorney in charge of that bogus investigation can't or won't issue indictments before the election-Trump is leaning hard on Barr to push him along. As far as the vaccine goes, I hate to say it but a US government approval of a vaccine under Trump means absolutely nothing to me.

OTOH both are so widely anticipated now that maybe neither would qualify as a surprise.

 

[Amused]

Either his Russian investigation retaliation indictments or the vaccine approval. Apparently the attorney in charge of that bogus investigation can't or won't issue indictments before the election-Trump is leaning hard on Barr to push him along. As far as the vaccine goes, I hate to say it but a US government approval of a vaccine under Trump means absolutely nothing to me.

OTOH both are so widely anticipated now that maybe neither would qualify as a surprise.

Yes, but given his TV showman mentality, will he actually engineer dramatic arrests of his rivals in the week before the election? Just close enough so that they can't be undone in the courts (now questionable because he has stacked them)?

 

[VRAMdemon]

Whatever they're planning, and I'm sure they're planning something, is not likely to work the way the Comey letter did in 2016. There were actually undecided voters then. Not many this time. Everyone has made up their minds. People who don't like Trump, which is the majority, do not trust him. They won't trust whatever he does here. It will only play to his base.

I think Barr was using Durham to find something to use so that he could write another Comey letter weeks before the election. Problem is, Trump says the quiet part out loud.

 

[Moonbeam]

We live in a world of false values created by capitalist competition. Ask yourself what success really is. The one who dies with the most toys wins. To be rich, beautiful, a business success, famous and envied, to own a mansion or many, yachts, gorgeous women, to be an alpha male. This is the alternative provided by society to hide its feelings of self hate. It is the opposite of submission and surrender, the infinite bliss that comes only to those without ego. It is a life lived in fear, the fear of the ego empty state which is interpreted only as failure. It is eternal war to maintain ones status and station, a war that is created by fear, a status maintained by pretense that ones ego is the greatest.

So the self hater condemns himself to an endless war to stave off what he or she most fears not knowing, not seeing that we create what we fear. He who fears failure will create for him or her self a failed state. The need to produce envy will produce crucifixion instead. Trump has nailed himself to his own cross because the thing he hates most is his very own ego. His deepest unconscious drive is for it to be destroyed so he can once again get back to that time in early childhood with he was close to God, not the God of Religion, but the God of inmost Being. These are the laws of the universe from which there is no escape nor anything to fear. The hard part is to really really see it.

 

[Bitek]

I'll regret saying this, but I actually feel like we're sort of at a point where isn't anything that is going to shift a needle enough for Trump. At least on things within Trump's control. We've already got 5-7 million votes in. Both candidates have plenty of history for voters to draw an opinion on. There is very little in the way of new information that could legitimately swing away a ton of votes from Joe. That said, he's in the lead, it's his to lose. He can still say something absolutely stupid that will cost him a few votes, but nothing significant. I think we're in a very different phase of the election than we were at the same time in 2016.

My feeling as well. What can that fool possibly do that will win back millions of votes in the next couple weeks? The fact that people are already voting early or by mail makes this even more difficult to overcome.

Not to mention his campaign staff, the WH, and the WH comms office are all infected and hobbled. How can they even function effectively?

Have a news conference, get bombed with covid questions. Trump quit next debate. Rallies preach to the choir. Trump pissed away his campaign funds, has too little money and too many fronts to run enough ads.

Honestly, they are so fucked it will take a miracle to come back.

 

[K1052]

Almost 10M people have already voted. Some states are close to 20% of 2016 total votes already. Georgia started early voting today and the polls are just mobbed.

Every day that passes reduces the likelihood that some late event can change the course of the election in a meaningfully beneficial way for Trump. The cake is increasingly baked.

 

[Homerboy]

There's no "October Surprise". It's going to be a "November Bombshell" where he simply does not concede in any shape way or form and it becomes a painful, vengeful, spiteful, hateful legal battle to concede the throne. I'm taking note of the Republican State Legislatures assigning their own Electorates to override election results they find "fraudulent".

November - December is going to be as brutal a time to our "Democracy" as this country has seen in anyone's living memory. We're in for a true test of our country's and her citizens' mettle.

 

[Amused]

There's no "October Surprise". It's going to be a "November Bombshell" where he simply does not concede in any shape way or form and it becomes a painful, vengeful, spiteful, hateful legal battle to concede the throne. I'm taking note of the Republican State Legislatures assigning their own Electorates to override election results they find "fraudulent".

November - December is going to be as brutal a time to our "Democracy" as this country has seen in anyone's living memory. We're in for a true test of our country's and her citizens' mettle.

Why not both?

Seriously, Trump NEEDS the drama. I have very little doubt he and his minions will attempt an October surprise.

And I have the same lack of doubt he will contest the election results when he loses and throw our democracy under the buss if he can.

 

[Homerboy]

Why not both?

Seriously, Trump NEEDS the drama. I have very little doubt he and his minions will attempt an October surprise.

And I have the same lack of doubt he will contest the election results when he loses and throw our democracy under the buss if he can.

I just don't think they have anything else up their sleeve that will effect October. But they know they can create MAJOR chaos and confusion (and a civil war in all possible ranges of severity). As you said, Trump NEEDS the drama and chaos to keep his reign - it's why there's a damned new story every day that would oust anyone else. they might try for October but they are betting heavily on a complete November shit-show to hold onto any vestige of power. And, if that doesn't work, they are going to burn the mother fucker down during the lame duck period.

 

[Commodus]

Almost 10M people have already voted. Some states are close to 20% of 2016 total votes already. Georgia started early voting today and the polls are just mobbed.

Every day that passes reduces the likelihood that some late event can change the course of the election in a meaningfully beneficial way for Trump. The cake is increasingly baked.

The heavy turnout makes me happy, even if the lines are entirely too long due to Republican voter suppression. Those are primarily going to be Democrat voters, some of whom might not have voted at all in 2016.

 

[Jhhnn]

My feeling as well. What can that fool possibly do that will win back millions of votes in the next couple weeks? The fact that people are already voting early or by mail makes this even more difficult to overcome.

Not to mention his campaign staff, the WH, and the WH comms office are all infected and hobbled. How can they even function effectively?

Have a news conference, get bombed with covid questions. Trump quit next debate. Rallies preach to the choir. Trump pissed away his campaign funds, has too little money and too many fronts to run enough ads.

Honestly, they are so fucked it will take a miracle to come back.

No amount of money would matter at all. Too much water under the bridge. Too many lies. Too much insanity.

 

[woolfe9998]

I think Barr was using Durham to find something to use so that he could write another Comey letter weeks before the election. Problem is, Trump says the quiet part out loud.

They have no evidence of criminal activity on the part of Biden. Literally zero. They may write some kind of letter, but I doubt they'll even try to charge him with a crime. We'll see.

Either way, it won't win him the election. He might be able to steal it if the outcome is close, but I doubt any October surprise will help with the outcome.

 

[ondma]

Could be "packing the Supreme Court" should Biden win. The Democrats seem incapable of a decent response to this. (Seems to me all Biden has to say is that he cant do it alone, it requires approval of both houses of congress. If such a bill is passed he will evaluate it, but wont speculate on specifics at this time.)

And yes, I know the Republicans are doing it right now, but the dems dont seem to use this effectively as a response either.

 

[cytg111]

"Biggest Scandal In US History"
Criminal probes into Obama, Biden maybe even Hillary. They will frame it as a "coup" attempt etc etc

 

[Homerboy]

Could be "packing the Supreme Court" should Biden win. The Democrats seem incapable of a decent response to this. (Seems to me all Biden has to say is that he cant do it alone, it requires approval of both houses of congress. If such a bill is passed he will evaluate it, but wont speculate on specifics at this time.)

And yes, I know the Republicans are doing it right now, but the dems dont seem to use this effectively as a response either.

Totally agree on this. And they HAVE to be prepared for it going forward. Your answer is spot on too - it's not the sole decision of the president. Just explain that if that is what the elected parties of the branches of government decide, then that is the course of events that will be evaluated.