Watch the U.S. back down to avoid war with China

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sdifox

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
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Juiblex said:
PLA to conduct drills around island of Taiwan Tuesday night including conventional missile test launches - Global Times

If you didn't figure it out with Russia... Russia did the same thing with Ukraine right before the invasion.
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This has been going on since Chiang Kai Shek retreated to Taiwan.

Taiwan Military Expenditure

Military Expenditure in Taiwan increased to 16475 USD Million in 2024 from 16344.60 USD Million in 2023. Taiwan Military Expenditure - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com

Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion since then.
 
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sdifox

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
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Leeea said:
That is an underestimation.


China has about 17,000 vessels in its fishing fleet. Any boat can be a landing craft 1 time.
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That tactic didn't do too well in Korea, and that is over land...
 
Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,354
10,880
136
Leeea said:
You mean China has been a cruel joke of country for over 3000 years?
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Essentially yes.

I never said it was a quality country or that I wanted to move there! ;)

*(btw I remember reading about it in the NY Times when Nixon went to China)
 
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Pens1566

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
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Juiblex said:
I understand that.

I'm just reporting the news. CNN and other western news seems pretty unconcerned. I, on the other hand, am...
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They "seem" pretty unconcerned because their sources in the DoD (and other nations similar orgs) are well aware that nothing is going to happen beyond blustery words in statements intended to make headlines.
 
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Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
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The worrisome point that seems to be escaping some folks is that if you all are correct and "this is the strongest China will ever be" (which I believe is nonsense) what exactly is their incentive to wait? To become weaker? *(see Imperial Japan)

Using history as a guide, nations in desperate shape are the ones that make desperate moves.
 
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nicalandia

Diamond Member
Jan 10, 2019
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Captante said:
The worrisome point that seems to be escaping some folks is that if you all are correct and "this is the strongest China will ever be" what exactly is their incentive to wait? To become weaker?

Using history as a guide, nations in desperate shape are the ones that make desperate moves.
Click to expand...
They stand no chance against the USA, they know that. They have the numbers(as in Cannon Fodder) their equipment is worst than Russian Junk(They are using Chinese knockoffs of Russian Junk).
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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sdifox said:
That tactic didn't do too well in Korea, and that is over land...
Click to expand...

If we look at the history of CCP mismanagement, it is the type of thing that a CCP official would think was a good idea.



The average Chinese fishing boat averages about 10 knots on a good day. They also completely lack any maneuverability or damage control. Napkin math indicates it would take about 10 hours to cross from China to Taiwan. For the sake of argument, we will forget about sustainment*.

This means the militaries defending Taiwan would need to destroy 29 boats a minute for 10 hours straight.

That certainly seems like it would be difficult for the US or Taiwan to defend against.



*speaking of sustainment, in the battle for Chosin Reservoir in Korea, for every 1 Chinese soldier KIA against the USMC, their were 2 who froze to death in the North Korean winter.
 
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Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,354
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nicalandia said:
They stand no chance against the USA, they know that. They have the numbers(as in Cannon Fodder) their equipment is worst than Russian Junk(They are using Chinese knockoffs of Russian Junk).
Click to expand...

As I've said like 5 times now the US as it stands could absolutely destroy China in a conventional war and as you mentioned the Chinese know it.

However all that would mean is greater incentive to USE nukes since they "can't win" a conventional war if they get into/start one. (and god-forbid ANYONE back down)
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Leeea said:
If we look at the history of CCP mismanagement, it is the type of thing that a CCP official would think was a good idea.

The average Chinese fishing boat averages about 10 knots on a good day. They also completely lack any maneuverability or damage control. Napkin math indicates it would take about 10 hours to cross from China to Taiwan. For the sake of argument, we will forget about sustainment*.

This means the militaries defending Taiwan would need to destroy 29 boats a minute for 10 hours straight.

That certainly seems like it would be difficult for the US or Taiwan to defend against.

*if anything was learned from the Russian / Ukraine war, dictatorships like Russia and China are not concerned with minor issues like sustainment
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A mass landing on Taiwan by seizing your entire domestic fishing fleet seems like an exceptionally poor idea. First, you would be telegraphing your intentions a country mile away. Second, you would decimate your entire fishing industry. Third, fishing boats would make very poor landing craft.

Also, I think you may overestimate the interest in the average Chinese fisherman to steam across the strait in the face of massive and accurate firepower deployed against you. The PLAN isn't going to be operating those boats so what happens when they owners decide to go home?
 
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Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,354
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Leeea said:
This means the militaries defending Taiwan would need to destroy 29 boats a minute for 10 hours straight
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Put that way it's STILL possible to stop but I suspect either carpet-bombing the entire area of the straight ala Cambodia or using something like a tactical nuke would be the only way to get it done.

And we all know where that would lead. :(

As I mentioned already however they're not ready to invade now.
 
Pens1566

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,919
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We've reached the point of the discussion where we're talking about carpet bombing several hundred sq miles of ocean, or using nukes on said space to defeat a commandeered fleet of private fishing vessels.


I think we're done.
 
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Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,354
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Pens1566 said:
We've reached the point of the discussion where we're talking about carpet bombing several hundred sq miles of ocean, or using nukes on said space to defeat a commandeered fleet of private fishing vessels.


I think we're done.
Click to expand...


It WAS fun while it lasted! ;)
 
L

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Captante said:
Put that way it's STILL possible to stop but I suspect either carpet-bombing the entire area of the straight ala Cambodia or using something like a tactical nuke would be the only way to get it done.

And we all know where that would lead. :(

As I mentioned already however they're not ready to invade now.
Click to expand...

So a Zumwalt destroyer has the radar return of a rowboat.

The average Chinese fishing boat has a radar return considerably larger.


Sending in a single destroyer would result in complete chaos. Chinese shore batteries would have a very low probability of locking onto the destroyer over their own boats. But if the shore batteries did nothing it would be like a wolf in the henhouse.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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fskimospy said:
A mass landing on Taiwan by seizing your entire domestic fishing fleet seems like an exceptionally poor idea. First, you would be telegraphing your intentions a country mile away. Second, you would decimate your entire fishing industry. Third, fishing boats would make very poor landing craft.

Also, I think you may overestimate the interest in the average Chinese fisherman to steam across the strait in the face of massive and accurate firepower deployed against you. The PLAN isn't going to be operating those boats so what happens when they owners decide to go home?
Click to expand...

This is the same government that starved 45 million of its own citizens for a 5 year plan that had a real slick presentation.

It does not need to be a good idea. It just needs to sound good. A glorious triumph to the peoples ingenuity!

pc-1958-024.jpg
source:
https://chineseposters.net/themes/great-leap-forward
 
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sdifox

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
100,907
18,092
126
Artorias said:
Sooner the world becomes less reliant on Taiwan semiconductors the better. Absolutely nuts to have such an important piece of modern day technology produced next to a country like China.
Click to expand...
It's called capitalism. Americans simply were not interested in investing pallets of dollars in foundry.
 
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sdifox

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
100,907
18,092
126
Leeea said:
If we look at the history of CCP mismanagement, it is the type of thing that a CCP official would think was a good idea.



The average Chinese fishing boat averages about 10 knots on a good day. They also completely lack any maneuverability or damage control. Napkin math indicates it would take about 10 hours to cross from China to Taiwan. For the sake of argument, we will forget about sustainment*.

This means the militaries defending Taiwan would need to destroy 29 boats a minute for 10 hours straight.

That certainly seems like it would be difficult for the US or Taiwan to defend against.



*speaking of sustainment, in the battle for Chosin Reservoir in Korea, for every 1 Chinese soldier KIA against the USMC, their were 2 who froze to death in the North Korean winter.
Click to expand...


They made a propaganda film praising those "heroes"

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Battle at Lake Changjin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

There is a sequel.
 
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