Watch the U.S. back down to avoid war with China

[Captante]

They must have a tiny military budget.

From what I understand they've spent quite a bit on weapons and been supplied with more. Taiwan is armed to the teeth that's why they could hold out for a day or two instead of just being rolled over.

Anyway I'm only repeating what I read. Again these were run by the US military. (say want you will about America.... we are VERY good at making things dead)


EDIT: Actually Taiwan until recently spent LESS then 2% of it's GDP on defense courtesy of Uncle Sam mostly footing the bill. It wasn't until 2022 they finally "cut loose the purse-strings" and allocated 8.6 billion upping it to a "whopping" 3%.

Their air-force has approx 400 fighters BUT 180+ of them are ancient F-5's and the best they have are F-16's dating back to the early/mid 90's.

 

[fskimospy]

I could have sworn those were obsolete back in the middle-ages?

Seriously in every single military exercise I'm aware of run by the US, Taiwan goes down in hours to at most a day or two without direct and large-scale intervention. (and virtually all of these assumed China wanted to KEEP Taiwan intact not level it and build back "fresh")

Can you point to these exercises?

 

[fskimospy]

From what I understand they've spent quite a bit on weapons and been supplied with more. Taiwan is armed to the teeth that's why they could hold out for a day or two instead of just being rolled over.

Anyway I'm only repeating what I read. Again these were run by the US military. (say want you will about America.... we are VERY good at making things dead)

Remember, everyone thought Ukraine would be rolled over in a few days.

 

[kage69]

India comes to mind. That's it. It was basically a skirmish.

Think you guys forgot the Sino-Vietnamese War of '79.

China supported those lovable Khmer Rouge folks, invaded their enemy Vietnam to 'teach a lesson.' Basically got a 27 day long course in why it's not good to attack people who were hardened under years of fighting a real military. Occupied a few areas with Chinese ties and called it quits, proclaimed "their" class to be over. Except for a few times where Chinese boats gunned down Vietnamese troops in the water at Johnson Reef, couple other islands. What China does to India in the mountains is a lot like what China does to Vietnam in the SCS.

Low intensity harassment experience does not a combat veteran make though.

 

[Captante]

Remember, everyone thought Ukraine would be rolled over in a few days.

If the Russians had been halfway competent it would have been even with their crappy equipment. Now for Russia it's almost like fighting the US Army in Ukraine in terms of the equipment and arms they face.

China's military may be just as bad (or worse) overall then Russia but that won't matter one bit if they decide they don't care about "breaking" Taiwan.

 

[fskimospy]

If the Russians had been halfway competent it would have been even with their crappy equipment. Now for Russia it's almost like fighting the US Army in Ukraine in terms of the equipment and arms they face.

China's military may be just as bad (or worse) overall then Russia but that won't matter one bit if they decide they don't care about "breaking" Taiwan.

It will matter a lot, as Ukraine shows.

 

[Captante]

Think you guys forgot the Sino-Vietnamese War of '79.

China supported those lovable Khmer Rouge folks

I have not forgotten.



And don't forget our "Police-Action" in Korea... China was a player in that too.

 

[Captante]

It will matter a lot, as Ukraine shows.

Hopefully it won't matter at all because Xi will come to his senses and back off.... China could level a lot/most of the infrastructure in Taiwan without landing a single soldier or tank.



Thing is I don't believe China is ready to give up the Fabs in Taiwan until they have sufficient domestic chip-production without them.

Second thing is it won't be long until they have exactly that.

Even though we're talking about 18nm garbage (at first) that would put them ahead of us without Taiwan.

 

[sdifox]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Air_Force

For those that care

 

[kage69]

I have not forgotten.

And don't forget our "Police-Action" in Korea... China was a player in that too.

I've cited the Korean War several times here already I think. China entered later on, only once we crossed the Yalu IIRC. Wasn't just us though, UN mission and we had some great help. The Filipinos in particular. The South African AF bagged Mao's pissant son. Daddy's boy demanded a fire be started so someone could cook him a hot breakfest. He wanted eggs but was instead served napalm.

 

[nicalandia]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Air_Force

For those that care

We don't....!

 

[hal2kilo]

Think you guys forgot the Sino-Vietnamese War of '79.

China supported those lovable Khmer Rouge folks, invaded their enemy Vietnam to 'teach a lesson.' Basically got a 27 day long course in why it's not good to attack people who were hardened under years of fighting a real military. Occupied a few areas with Chinese ties and called it quits, proclaimed "their" class to be over. Except for a few times where Chinese boats gunned down Vietnamese troops in the water at Johnson Reef, couple other islands. What China does to India in the mountains is a lot like what China does to Vietnam in the SCS.

Low intensity harassment experience does not a combat veteran make though.

I was kind of thinking post "cold war".

 

[kage69]

I was kind of thinking post "cold war".

I don't think Pens was, I just defaulted to 1949 as that was when forces loyal to the communists became the CCP's official military. And to be clear I'm largely agreeing with you both. I don't see getting beat up in the Vietnamese jungle for a couple weeks to change the equation much. Maybe bigger than a Grenada, but similar screw ups and wake up calls despite a technical win I think.

 

[Jaskalas]

If someone wants to "hm destroy Taiwan", there is no need for any clasic invasion.Just launch(from China) a few dozen rockets(or 100+)on TSMC FAB-s, and you destroyed the most strategically valuable thing in Taiwan.TSMC out of business or destroyed, it is hard to imagine Taiwan without the very successful TSMC business.

All China needs to do is start sinking a few commercial ships around Taiwan.
It'll have the same effect as no one dares brave those waters.

 

[Leeea]

All China needs to do is start sinking a few commercial ships around Taiwan.
It'll have the same effect as no one dares brave those waters.

Yes and no.

Dropping a few commercial ships sounds all fine and good.

And then anonymous* submarine drops a few Chinese commercial ships and suddenly China no longer has enough coal, electricity, or food.

Opps.


*Taiwan has a sub. So does Australia. and Japan. also the US. Who is to say exactly who sunk the Chinese ships in this hypothetical? Maybe it was the Russian's trying to escalate tensions? False flag attack by the Chinese to justify destroy Taiwanese ship?

 

[Leeea]

If someone wants to "hm destroy Taiwan", there is no need for any clasic invasion.Just launch(from China) a few dozen rockets(or 100+)on TSMC FAB-s, and you destroyed the most strategically valuable thing in Taiwan.TSMC out of business or destroyed, it is hard to imagine Taiwan without the very successful TSMC business.

Problem is Taiwan can return the favor.

If TSMC(destroyed or badly damaged)stopped production today, it would very soon cause a crisis of epic proportions+shortage and astronomical prices.

For now, TSMC is globally crucial business even for China as well.But things will change no doubt.In the future, we can constantly expect serious strategic tensions between China(in reality China vs west)and Taiwan.

It would.

And the powers that be would make sure China received all the blame.

It would be the end of China has a trading partner. In that aspect China has more to lose then Taiwan.

 

[K1052]

All China needs to do is start sinking a few commercial ships around Taiwan.
It'll have the same effect as no one dares brave those waters.

Sinking neutral shipping is war crime and the fallout would be immense.

 

[sdifox]

LoL the country that depends on 650+B trade surplus is not going to risk that.

 

[K1052]

LoL the country that depends on 650+B trade surplus is not going to risk that.

Sort of need ships to export stuff!

 

[sportage]

Are we now talking Pelosi 2024?
The old broad pulled it off, and came out looking more like a leader than did our leader. I'd vote for her simply to give Donald Trump his first prime time heart attack.

 

[Jaskalas]

Sinking neutral shipping is war crime and the fallout would be immense.

Anyone willing to seize Taiwan by force must surely not give a !@#$ and simply wants to watch the world burn.
China has vowed for this end. Whether they make good on their promises is another thing.
I simply imagine the means by which they may achieve their goal.

To deny shipping would be less costly than complete all out war. At least from the onset.
The alternatives involve forming a hard blockade and warning off these ships in advance.
Or bombing the island into dust.
It's all "war crimes".

 

[rommelrommel]

I could have sworn those were obsolete back in the middle-ages?

Seriously in every single military exercise I'm aware of run by the US, Taiwan goes down in hours to at most a day or two without direct and large-scale intervention. (and virtually all of these assumed China wanted to KEEP Taiwan intact not level it and build back "fresh")

lol, citation please.

"Hours" doesn't even get an invasion fleet marshalled and across the strait. This also allows for almost no preparatory air/artillery strikes, minimal efforts to neutralize Taiwan's navy/air force. Even days would require Taiwan to basically just not fight at all.

 

[m8d]

Their whole system is built upon corruption.

All China needs to do is start sinking a few commercial ships around Taiwan.
It'll have the same effect as no one dares brave those waters.

All the US has to do is out some destroyers in the Indian Ocean and cut off China's oil supply.

 

[NostaSeronx]

It would probably be best to play chicken now with the PRC. Rather to wait for PRC to be confident in the take-over of Taiwan by force sometime after 2027. As well as confidence in South China Sea, etc.

In the current state;
PRC Military is more corrupt and cowardly than the RF Military.

In the future state;
Wall hacks, auto aim, etc. aka "Chinese Future MilTech" stuff that was copied from Future Combat, Future Navy, etc programs.

Current coalition with agreements that can escalate:
India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malayisa, Brunei, Japan, South Korea, Australia

If China screws around, they are going to find out.

In this case, it is better to annoy China now into conflict, rather than let China start the conflict itself later, when they get around technology bans. Less losses across the board now, rather than more losses in the future. If they don't attack, the CPC loses strength legitimacy and forces internal conflict anyway.

 

[Muse]

Pelosi did the right thing and visited the underdog nation who insist on independence. As far as I'm concerned, any place on earth that wants to be independent of another should do just that if they can manage it and any nation that denies their right to do so is imperialistic. Right on Pelosi, right on Taiwan ... and slava Ukraini.