Watch the U.S. back down to avoid war with China

[cytg111]

Pelosi did the right thing and visited the underdog nation who insist on independence. As far as I'm concerned, any place on earth that wants to be independent of another should do just that if they can manage it and any nation that denies their right to do so is imperialistic. Right on Pelosi, right on Taiwan ... and slava Ukraini.

I tend to agree, though its not as if its not without nuance and texture.
Like Spain and Catalonia, Switzerland and EU and NATO.
Suppose all your the richest people have a meeting and decides to relocate and amass on coordinates x right, then fuck yall we want to be independent. Preferable they'd find some coordinates that is of less military importance and with natural boundaries that doesnt warrant any significant military, so to speak, any outside force would have to go through Spain first to get to Catalonia.
You can sort of do the same exercise with Switzerland, protection from all sides by NATO countries (besides Austria, but...) that is pr. definition guaranteed not to attack... thus military spending is abysmal.
I am just saying there is freedom from oppression and then there is "freedom to fuck someone else over" - in order to make them foot the bill for you (and extract wealth from the very soil that is the foundation of what made you).

 

[sdifox]

Anyone willing to seize Taiwan by force must surely not give a !@#$ and simply wants to watch the world burn.
China has vowed for this end. Whether they make good on their promises is another thing.
I simply imagine the means by which they may achieve their goal.

To deny shipping would be less costly than complete all out war. At least from the onset.
The alternatives involve forming a hard blockade and warning off these ships in advance.
Or bombing the island into dust.
It's all "war crimes".

There is a major difference between "civil war" and sinking ships registered in Panama.

 

[Captante]

lol, citation please.

I'll see if I can find the article later.... I believe it was in US News but its been awhile. (Not sure why you apparently think I would bother to make this up)

One detail I do recall is that the time involved for Taiwan to surrender did not include "setting the stage" only the actual combat.

 

[fskimospy]

I'll see if I can find the article later.... I believe it was in US News but its been awhile. (Not sure why you apparently think I would bother to make this up)

One detail I do recall is that the time involved for Taiwan to surrender did not include "setting the stage" only the actual combat.

I find this very hard to believe. The idea that China would be able to conduct a massive amphibious invasion over a 100 mile, heavily contested strait and force a surrender within hours as the base case is not credible. Amphibious invasions are incredibly difficult to pull off and China has limited amphibious capabilities and no actual experience doing them.

This doesn't mean China can't develop this capability, but the idea that as of today they can force Taiwan's capitulation in hours or days would appear to have to be based in the assumption that their amphibious operation was successful, something that seems very far from certain.

EDIT: Also as I mentioned before we might want to be cautious about overestimating China's military capabilities. We generally had a high opinion of the professional part of Russia's army right up until they tried to use it against anything approaching a real enemy. We may be making the same mistake with China.

 

[Mai72]

When I mentioned potential for "accidental" trouble that escalates, it was this sort of thing I was referring to.




However if you want some cold-comfort, remember China is extremely patient. They WILL end up in full control of Taiwan one way or another and they know it too but they're not in any serious rush.

Yea. They are slowly building their military. Their planning. It might be tomorrow, or 20 years from now.

They will eventually invade Taiwan.

 

[K1052]

I find this very hard to believe. The idea that China would be able to conduct a massive amphibious invasion over a 100 mile, heavily contested strait and force a surrender within hours as the base case is not credible. Amphibious invasions are incredibly difficult to pull off and China has limited amphibious capabilities and no actual experience doing them.

This doesn't mean China can't develop this capability, but the idea that as of today they can force Taiwan's capitulation in hours or days would appear to have to be based in the assumption that their amphibious operation was successful, something that seems very far from certain.

EDIT: Also as I mentioned before we might want to be cautious about overestimating China's military capabilities. We generally had a high opinion of the professional part of Russia's army right up until they tried to use it against anything approaching a real enemy. We may be making the same mistake with China.

Opposed amphibious landings were risky business in the era before ASMs and ATGMs. Certainly haven't gotten any easier.

 

[Captante]

I find this very hard to believe. The idea that China would be able to conduct a massive amphibious invasion over a 100 mile, heavily contested strait and force a surrender within hours as the base case is not credible. Amphibious invasions are incredibly difficult to pull off and China has limited amphibious capabilities and no actual experience doing them.

This doesn't mean China can't develop this capability, but the idea that as of today they can force Taiwan's capitulation in hours or days would appear to have to be based in the assumption that their amphibious operation was successful, something that seems very far from certain.

EDIT: Also as I mentioned before we might want to be cautious about overestimating China's military capabilities. We generally had a high opinion of the professional part of Russia's army right up until they tried to use it against anything approaching a real enemy. We may be making the same mistake with China.

It's possible I remember incorrectly .... it's also entirely possible that since the models were based on old information they no longer apply accurately.

 

[rommelrommel]

I'll see if I can find the article later.... I believe it was in US News but its been awhile. (Not sure why you apparently think I would bother to make this up)

One detail I do recall is that the time involved for Taiwan to surrender did not include "setting the stage" only the actual combat.

I was more thinking you're reading some horrible sources.

Taiwan even has some islands in the strait that would make the crossing harder, hours is just a totally impractical amount of time that would require almost no resistance at all.

 

[m8d]

I find this very hard to believe. The idea that China would be able to conduct a massive amphibious invasion over a 100 mile, heavily contested strait and force a surrender within hours as the base case is not credible. Amphibious invasions are incredibly difficult to pull off and China has limited amphibious capabilities and no actual experience doing them.

This doesn't mean China can't develop this capability, but the idea that as of today they can force Taiwan's capitulation in hours or days would appear to have to be based in the assumption that their amphibious operation was successful, something that seems very far from certain.

EDIT: Also as I mentioned before we might want to be cautious about overestimating China's military capabilities. We generally had a high opinion of the professional part of Russia's army right up until they tried to use it against anything approaching a real enemy. We may be making the same mistake with China.

Taiwan will Target Three Gorges Dam

 

[sdifox]

Taiwan will Target Three Gorges Dam

Eh? That thing is about to fail on its own accord. No need to fire anything at it.

Plus if Taiwan has such long range weapon, why not target Beijing or Shanghai?

What the Potential Crisis on the Yangtze Means for China and the World

As if 2020 has not been sufficiently crisis-laden for the People’s Republic of China, it now faces the potential for major catastrophe due to massive rains. For much of the past several weeks, central China has been inundated by massive rainstorms, which have generated the country’s third major...

www.heritage.org

 

[Muse]

Eh? That thing is about to fail on its own accord. No need to fire anything at it.

Plus if Taiwan has such long range weapon, why not target Beijing or Shanghai?

When you are tiny next to a behemoth, you don't want to provoke if possible. Doesn't mean you don't stand up for yourself.

 

[Jaskalas]

Eh? That thing is about to fail on its own accord. No need to fire anything at it.

Plus if Taiwan has such long range weapon, why not target Beijing or Shanghai?

The video made it clear.
Taking out that dam would threaten 600 million Chinese.
It'd be an absolute disaster.

That's far more damage than any other option.

 

[Pens1566]

If I'm Taiwan, and I have the technical ability to hit 3 Gorges, it's 1000% part of my response to an invasion from the mainland. Not that Xi would care about the casualties ... but the other consequences would be catastrophic for him.

 

[igor_kavinski]

We spend decades building stuff to support entire generations of human lives and then we destroy everything within the span of a few days or months, all because of differences of opinions and pride. Being human sucks.

 

[igor_kavinski]

ANYWAY...

 

[Jaskalas]

Seems temporary(?) economic measures are to be China's course of action, for now.
We'll see how temporary they are.

China set to begin effective Taiwan blockade hours after Nancy Pelosi concludes visit

China is set to launch an unprecedented military drill that effectively blockades Taiwan until Sunday afternoon ​

 

[sdifox]

Seems temporary(?) economic measures are to be China's course of action, for now.
We'll see how temporary they are.

China set to begin effective Taiwan blockade hours after Nancy Pelosi concludes visit

China is set to launch an unprecedented military drill that effectively blockades Taiwan until Sunday afternoon ​

LoL chicken shits won't do anything while Pelosi was there. Only after she is in Japan do they dare try naval action.

 

[m8d]

Eh? That thing is about to fail on its own accord. No need to fire anything at it.

Plus if Taiwan has such long range weapon, why not target Beijing or Shanghai?

LoL chicken shits won't do anything while Pelosi was there. Only after she is in Japan do they dare try naval action.

They have to find a way to save face. They didn't want to fuck around and find out.

 

[Denly]

10-15 years from now China will be done as a country.

As I mentioned in my previous post, China's 1 child policy dooms them in those time frames. 1 child policy = 1 person to support 2 elderly parents, themselves, and their children. The economic burden of supporting the elderly will be crushing.

China is stronger today then it will be for at least a generation.
China has deep systemic issues from decades of CCP mismanagement that have destroyed China's future.

It would be more convincing if you call CPP gone in 15yrs, unless you have a way to wipe 1.2b people off the face of the earth China is not going anywhere. Even if 1/2 the pop and CPP gone it would still be China.

 

[Leeea]

It would be more convincing if you call CPP gone in 15yrs, unless you have a way to wipe 1.2b people off the face of the earth China is not going anywhere. Even if 1/2 the pop and CPP gone it would still be China.

It is one thing to exist. China has been existing in one state of sadness or another for over 3,000 years.

But the so call future where China has a golden Chinese century. That future is dead.

China will never be more then a regional power in our life time. China will not lead the world in science and technology. China will not be in a position to successfully conquer its neighbors. China will not over throw the current world order.

China will muddle through this century, yes. But it will be as it always has been, entirely focused on its own self made problems. Inward focused and unable to leverage its people and resources to move beyond the status of being a developing nation.

In other words, the CCP screwed up and the people get to live in a shit hole for another generation.

 

[m8d]

It is one thing to exist. China has been existing in one state of sadness or another for over 3,000 years.

But the so call future where China has a golden Chinese century. That future is dead.

China will never be more then a regional power in our life time. China will not lead the world in science and technology. China will not be in a position to successfully conquer its neighbors. China will not over throw the current world order.

China will muddle through this century, yes. But it will be as it always has been, entirely focused on its own self made problems. Inward focused and unable to leverage its people and resources to move beyond the status of being a developing nation.

In other words, the CCP screwed up and the people get to live in a shit hole for another generation.

China will never be a superpower.

 

[nickqt]

They have to find a way to save face. They didn't want to fuck around and find out.

Wait, did that actually happen?

The dumbest mother fucker on the forums has told me multiple times that Biden, the Democratic Party, and the Church of the Progressheviks in general are all stooges of China like the fascist he worships is dependent on Putin.

You're telling me some 82 year old Democrat just told China to fuck off?

The dumbest mother fucker on the forums must be furiously scanning all of his handlers' talking points channels for just the right set of talking points to continue believing whatever it is his handlers tell him to believe. I'm sure he'll be back soon to let us know what his handlers have come up with.

 

[Leeea]

Wait, did that actually happen?

The dumbest mother fucker on the forums has told me multiple times that Biden, the Democratic Party, and the Church of the Progressheviks in general are all stooges of China like the fascist he worships is dependent on Putin.

You're telling me some 82 year old Democrat just told China to fuck off?

The dumbest mother fucker on the forums must be furiously scanning all of his handlers' talking points channels for just the right set of talking points to continue believing whatever it is his handlers tell him to believe. I'm sure he'll be back soon to let us know what his handlers have come up with.

no way.

That youtube video is blowing fantasy.

Nobody was going to start a nuclear war over Pelosi going down.

A conventional one? yes. Nuclear? no.

 

[Denly]

It is one thing to exist. China has been existing in one state of sadness or another for over 3,000 years.

China has been a conquer or a loser, changing hands every 2-300yrs, civil wars or got in invaded. But over 1/2 the time is stable. Isn't that's about the same as any other old world country maybe except England?

But the so call future where China has a golden Chinese century. That future is dead.

Who's calling except Xi powerpoint?

China will never be more then a regional power in our life time. China will not lead the world in science and technology. China will not be in a position to successfully conquer its neighbors. China will not over throw the current world order.

Mostly agree with some minor corrections, no one is going to conquer anyone with nukes and allies just ask Putin how's things going. As for science, I would say the world is catching up to the more adv countries in a massive way and the playing field now a lot more even.

China will muddle through this century, yes. But it will be as it always has been, entirely focused on its own self made problems. Inward focused and unable to leverage its people and resources to move beyond the status of being a developing nation.

Have you been to developing nation(s) in the last 10yrs? Not war zone, a stable country.

In other words, the CCP screwed up and the people get to live in a shit hole for another generation.

Totally.

 

[m8d]

Seems temporary(?) economic measures are to be China's course of action, for now.
We'll see how temporary they are.

China set to begin effective Taiwan blockade hours after Nancy Pelosi concludes visit

China is set to launch an unprecedented military drill that effectively blockades Taiwan until Sunday afternoon ​