War brewing in Colombia . . .

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: Farang
Perknose I'm not denying your analysis of the likelihood of war, but acknowledge that there have been and will continue to be "clusterfucks" that defy rational explanation. To speak in absolutes in any political situation is foolish IMO.

QFT.

Still taking bets, though.

 

[Socio]

Originally posted by: Perknose

Originally posted by: palehorse74
[Chavez] may lend his troops to assist FARC in finally capturing Colombia.

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Socio
Who knows, ten years from now South America could have a whole new name, Chavezuela!

Funny. Somewhat plausible...

Hardly plausible at all, please. :disgust:

If, in some bizarro alternate universe, Chavez ordered his "army" to invade Columbia, the result would be a tragi-comic clusterfuck all around, and Chavez would suffer the same fate as the Argentine junta generals after the Falklands -- his own people would give him the damn boot.

And, really, Chavez knows this.

"Move 10 battalions for me to the border with Colombia, immediately" is an internal PR move. The principals (governments) on both sides have too much to lose, and they both know it.

There will be no war.

I'm taking bets. Even odds, you name the amount. Foreign policy prognosticators of P&N, stand up and be counted!

I don?t know about that, I think the conquest of Colombia with the forethought of taking Panama after and seizing control the canal which is a vital shipping artery for both international commercial and US military vessels has to be pretty tempting for that power mad lunatic. So I would not put it past him to at least make an attempt at taking Colombia for that very reason.

 

[Jhhnn]

Maybe Chavez just wants to discourage any Colombian ambitions wrt doing the same thing in Venezuela as they have in Ecuador....

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
It is not without precedent for the USA to engage in proxy wars against regimes it does not like, so why should we act all enraged when Chevez MAY be doing the same. But last time I checked Chavez is not the de leader of Ecuador, so in that sense he has reason the bitch when Columbia is using its military to intervene in the affairs of its neighbors.

The Farc rebel movement has been engaged in a struggle with the government of Columbia long before Chevez came to power, and while having some of its top leadership
killed may be a set back, Farc is far from dead. And as long as Farc is alive and well, Chevez does not have to worry so much about Columbia being enlisted to fight a proxy war against him.

Methinks the OP has this childish notion that this is some game of cowboys and Indians where the Indians are the devils and the cowboys are the angels that can do no wrongs.
An insurgent movement of long standing like Farc does not remain viable long term unless they are opposed by a government that is actively engaging in repression. And there is no way anyone can make the case that Chevez is the cause of Farc.

So Chavez makes some verbal complaints and symbolic complaints the OP seems to be saying that therefor the sky is falling and the world is ending. When it probably means little or nothing because it does nothing and solves nothing.

If you wish to opine, then you should at LEAST know it is Colombia and not Columbia. Secondly, the FARC's manpower and strength has been shredded by Uribe, and when Colombia's government tried to make peace with them and give them a ceasefire zone (Pastrana) -- the FARC's strength increased, their ranks swelled with new recruits, and they were able to make large gains while the government was looking the other way.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Maybe Chavez just wants to discourage any Colombian ambitions wrt doing the same thing in Venezuela as they have in Ecuador....

Colombia did not do anything wrong in Ecuador.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: StepUp

Originally posted by: Lemon law
It is not without precedent for the USA to engage in proxy wars against regimes it does not like, so why should we act all enraged when Chevez MAY be doing the same. But last time I checked Chavez is not the de leader of Ecuador, so in that sense he has reason the bitch when Columbia is using its military to intervene in the affairs of its neighbors.

The Farc rebel movement has been engaged in a struggle with the government of Columbia long before Chevez came to power, and while having some of its top leadership
killed may be a set back, Farc is far from dead. And as long as Farc is alive and well, Chevez does not have to worry so much about Columbia being enlisted to fight a proxy war against him.

Methinks the OP has this childish notion that this is some game of cowboys and Indians where the Indians are the devils and the cowboys are the angels that can do no wrongs.
An insurgent movement of long standing like Farc does not remain viable long term unless they are opposed by a government that is actively engaging in repression. And there is no way anyone can make the case that Chevez is the cause of Farc.

So Chavez makes some verbal complaints and symbolic complaints the OP seems to be saying that therefor the sky is falling and the world is ending. When it probably means little or nothing because it does nothing and solves nothing.

As someone who lived in Colombia, and has been a victim of the FARC, let me tell you that you are so far off your rocker that you should be ashamed of yourself. The only reason that the FARC still has any semblance of withstanding is because they have aligned themselves with the drug traffickers, thus supplying them with the income they need to continue to fight against democracy in the region.

I see Socio post and normally I would call him Sociopath, but the truth is, that it's no tinfoil theory that Chavez wants to invade Colombia. He has said many times that he wishes to recreate the Bolivarian region that once was. He just recently purchased 1500 planes, from where, I do not remember.

You can defend Chavez in that it is obvious that the USA does not support his regime in the slightest. But do not defend an organization like the FARC or ELN (another of the leftist terrorist groups). These are people that hold many poor regions of the country hostage, forcing them to use their land for drug growing and not receiving a dime of this money.

They are the reason that Colombia has the largest number yearly of Land Mine deaths. And they are also the reason why it has the 2nd highest kidnapping rate, with Mexico just recently taking that crown (I don't know where Iraq fits into this equation).

I consider myself a liberal, but your post really pisses me off. I don't think it is the OP with the childish notion, but you who seemed to draw a line in this us vs them. The Colombian government is far from repressive.

These complaints are from symbolic or verbal. Ask anyone in the region, particularly Colombians, and they are vary wary of Chavez, and rightfully so. But that's alright, you keep living here in the USA and posting about your Socialist Utopia.

By the way, my cousin was kidnapped, held for ransom, and murdered by the FARC just last year. Was he a political senator, actively seeking to repress the members of the FARC? No, he was a singer. You may think that the FARC is not dead, but this movement has absolutely no support in Colombia. In fact demonstrations are held spontaneously quite frequently, and millions of people show up to denounce the actions. Colombians want the peace.

Queremos la paz.

This man has it right.

 

[GenHoth]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The Chicago Cubs are a Southside Chicago team,

The cubs are on the north side, white sox are down south. (Belmont vs 35th st)

 

[Jhhnn]

From Mill-

Colombia did not do anything wrong in Ecuador.

Depends on your POV- I doubt the Ecuadorians thought that Colombia did them any favors, considering the incident was an obvious and intentional violation of Ecuadorian sovereignty. But, of course, international law and etc have no place when you're allied with a country involved in trumped up invasions, anyway, right?

 

[yllus]

Originally posted by: GenHoth

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The Chicago Cubs are a Southside Chicago team,

The cubs are on the north side, white sox are down south. (Belmont vs 35th st)

LOL

 

[Andres3605]

Colombia has the right to defend and prosecute terrorist groups which continuously attack, kidnap and bomb Colombian population and then retreat to the borders, if Venezuela and Ecuador governments decide to supply, arm and safeguard these groups, then they themselves need to be internationally declared countries aiding terrorist groups.

As a Colombian who personally experienced the effects of this internal conflict i can assure you the "leftist groups" have little of revolutionary and now are just drug financed armies of terror, so many anti personal mines deaths, so much blood just for their personal greed.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
From Mill-

Colombia did not do anything wrong in Ecuador.

Depends on your POV- I doubt the Ecuadorians thought that Colombia did them any favors, considering the incident was an obvious and intentional violation of Ecuadorian sovereignty. But, of course, international law and etc have no place when you're allied with a country involved in trumped up invasions, anyway, right?

Dealing with non-state militant groups is often cause for disregarding sovereignty. There are many examples, and this is one, where groups find safe haven just across the border from which to launch attacks. These areas are often located in difficult terrain where border enforcement is impossible. Therefore the only mechanism for fighting back is to bomb the groups where they are, on the other side of the border.

Another example I can think of is the Pattani separatists, who for decades hid out in northern Malaysia. Now thanks to ASEAN the Thai government is finally getting some cooperation in this regard.

I think you're drawing too bold a line here. Yes, they technically did violate Ecuadorian sovereignty, but they did not really attack Ecuador. They were not attacking Ecuadorian military, strategic, or civilian targets. They were attacking a Colombian militant group which has based itself out of Ecuador and which Ecuador has not either the will or the resources to get rid of.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: K1052
I doubt he'll actually use his own military. He'll probably just send some more advanced weapons and cash to FARC.

Involving his military forces in an all out offensive against a sovereign nation that is heavily supported and allied with the US brings an unacceptably high probability of US military intervention.

However with so much of the US militaries resources caught up in the Middle East the probability is now an acceptable risk to him.

The Air Force, Navy, and a bunch of Marine aviators don't actually have a lot to do right now. Pounding the crap out of the VZ military wouldn't take more than a few days once they had the go ahead.

Let the Colombians provide the ground forces.

That is correct, we have 10 carrier groups, only three of them are currently deployed in the Middle East.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Chavez is playing a PR game and pandering to leftist/socialist sympathies, as usual. What a putz he is.

And if Equador won't take care of terrorists groups that are attacking their neighbor and using Equador as a safe-haven, then Colombia should have every right to go after them.

 

[Mill]

Depends on your POV- I doubt the Ecuadorians thought that Colombia did them any favors, considering the incident was an obvious and intentional violation of Ecuadorian sovereignty.

There is no indepedent proof that Colombia did that. Colombia maintains that they did not; Correa and Chavez maintain that they did.

But, of course, international law and etc have no place when you're allied with a country involved in trumped up invasions, anyway, right?

Specious and pathetic reasoning, and an attempt to tar Colombia with a brush of another country's policies.

 

[Mill]

Latest news is that Ecuador has recalled their ambassador, and has given an order for troops to mass along the Colombian border as well.

I find it hilarious that Chavez would complain about this (if true), as he has been interfering in Colombia's internal politics for several years now (even calling Colombian military officials without the permission of Uribe).

Some other news (which might just answer what this whole scandal is about):

Colombia denuncia escandalosos nexos de Correa y Chávez con las FARC

El Gobierno de Ecuador, el Presidente Correa y el Ministro Larrea tendrían nexos y compromisos con las FARC, según revela información obtenida de los 3 computadores incautados a Raúl Reyes. Así lo acaba de revelar el General Oscar Naranjo, Director de la Policía de Colombia. También hay información de nexos con otros Gobiernos que se hará pública en unos días. Mencionó a Chávez y Venezuela.Vea el VIDEO.

Noticia previa

.
Esta escandalosa noticia fue anticipada minutos antes de la rueda de prensa

Después de los Consejos de Seguridad realizados en la Casa de Nariño para analizar las infromaciones que contenían los computadores de Reyes, queda en evidencia los compromisos del presidente ecuatoriano, Rafael Correa con las Farc.

El director de la Policia, general Óscar Naranjo, en la rueda de prensa está dando a conocer las relaciones del Mandatario ecuatoriano con el grupo guerrillero y leyendo una serie de documentos.

En primer lugar revela un documento suscrito entre Raúl Reyes y el Ministro ecuatoriano Larrea a modo de acta de reunión.

En estos documentos, se afirmaba que el Gobierno de Ecuador relevaría a los jefes policiales que fueran no amistosos con las FARC.

Colombia está exigiendo respuestas al Gobierno de Ecuador sobre el estado de sus relaciones con las FARC que comprometen la seguridad de Colombia.

El jefe de la Policía ha añadido que se trata de una información preliminar ya que están estudiando el resto de la información.

También anuncia que hay información de nexos con otros gobiernos y personalidades que se hará público en los próximos días.

El general afirma que hay multiples comunicaciones entre Raúl Reyes y el Gobierno de Venezuela.




Basically, it appears that Ecuador's President or his government might have been interfacing with -- and providing support to -- the FARC.

 

[Mill]

Just to prove I'm fair:

Colombia's government plans to apologize to Ecuador saying there may have been an unintentional violation of Ecuador's border.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Mill
Just to prove I'm fair:

Colombia's government plans to apologize to Ecuador saying there may have been an unintentional violation of Ecuador's border.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The point being, will anyone believe the sincerity of Columbia? Meanwhile hypocrisies rein supreme as everyone is dragged into the about to be hung jury.

And if Columbia again violates international borders, there goes the mill fairness doctrine.

 

[Andres3605]

The latest update is that in the incident 3 laptops and several documents owned by Raul Reyes were recovered linking Venezuelan government and Ecuador's minister of defense with FARC's support (including a pact to remove Ecuador's police commanders opposing FARC in the border)





Scans of some documents confiscated (Spanish)




Edit: Clarified the concept

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Andres3605
The latest update is that in the incident 3 laptops and several documents owned by Raul Reyes were recovered linking Venezuelan government and Ecuador's minister of defense with support (including a pact to remove Ecuador's police commanders opposing FARC in the border) and advocating support from both countries.




Scans of some documents confiscated (Spanish)

You mean like they use Ecuador and Venezuela as a safe haven for cross-border raids?

http://www.miamiherald.com/915/story/432572.html

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Lemon law

Originally posted by: Mill
Just to prove I'm fair:

Colombia's government plans to apologize to Ecuador saying there may have been an unintentional violation of Ecuador's border.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The point being, will anyone believe the sincerity of Columbia? Meanwhile hypocrisies rein supreme as everyone is dragged into the about to be hung jury.

And if Columbia again violates international borders, there goes the mill fairness doctrine.

Again, the country is called Colombia and not Columbia.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The point being, will anyone believe the sincerity of Columbia? Meanwhile hypocrisies rein supreme as everyone is dragged into the about to be hung jury.

And if Columbia again violates international borders, there goes the mill fairness doctrine.

You know if this were real life you'd have been laughed out of the room with the response Andres gave you (that you ignored, like you would have in person, in stunned silence). So let's pretend for a second this is in person, and have you walk out of the room.

You ignore the points anyone makes against you and ramble off the same ones of your own. You started by putting words in my mouth. You offer nothing to this thread.

 

[daniel49]

thanks Mill, stepup and andres for shedding some objective light.
good stuff:thumbsup:

 

[StageLeft]

This is insane. Go to google images and type in "Colombia" and look at the fourth picture. That is why this is crazy.

However with so much of the US militaries resources caught up in the Middle East the probability is now an acceptable risk to him.

You think? The US is stretched in certain ways but it's nothing for it to send a carrier grou wherever it wants, and it would have easy reach in this area. Also, the last thing it wants is boots on the ground anyway. If it sat a group just up on the border between colombia and venezuela, what would Chavez do?

The problem here is that the US could see yet more supply disruptions and higher oil and that is why it is incumbent for US security that it becomes energy independent--or at least independent of risky nations (so, keep oil coming from Canada and some other key allies) as soon as freaking possible.

There will be no war.

It's unlikely. Also, 10 battallions is only 6000 troops. I don't know how big their military is, but that sounds pretty small.

I doubt the Ecuadorians thought that Colombia did them any favors, considering the incident was an obvious and intentional violation of Ecuadorian sovereignty

Look, this is the same thing with Turkey going into Iraq now and the US making strikes in Pakistan. If you are a country housing people who are attacking another nation and you are either unwilling or unable to stop it, you absolutely have to expect them to cross your border and stop it for you. Just as if you had some mexican drug lords starting to cross into texas and reap havoc from time to time and Mexico was unable/unwilling to do something, they'd get it done for them.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The point being, will anyone believe the sincerity of Columbia? Meanwhile hypocrisies rein supreme as everyone is dragged into the about to be hung jury.

And if Columbia again violates international borders, there goes the mill fairness doctrine.

You know if this were real life you'd have been laughed out of the room with the response Andres gave you (that you ignored, like you would have in person, in stunned silence). So let's pretend for a second this is in person, and have you walk out of the room.

You ignore the points anyone makes against you and ramble off the same ones of your own. You started by putting words in my mouth. You offer nothing to this thread.

That's Lemon's standard MO, so good luck getting through to him.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Maybe Chavez just wants to discourage any Colombian ambitions wrt doing the same thing in Venezuela as they have in Ecuador....

Jhhnn, do you still stand behind your idiotic comment?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/....html?iref=mpstoryview