*UPDATE* Nevermind....

[ProfJohn]

A new Washington Post-ABC news poll has some of the best news Republicans have seen in days maybe even weeks. Link

1. Bush?s approval numbers are up to 43%, the HIGHEST they have been since January. His disapprove number is at 55, also the lowest it has been ALL year.

Since their last poll released on 10-22 there has been a 6 point swing in Bush?s favor. Sure his numbers still suck, but a 6 point move in 12 days is very bad news for Democrats who are counting on Bush?s disapproval ratings to put them over the top.

2. Maybe even bigger news. The Generic ballot question shows only a 6 point lead for the Democrats. Before you get all excited over a 6 point lead keep in mind that on 10-22 it was a 14 point lead. In 12 days the Democrats have lost 14 points!!! At that rate by Election Day they would be down to a 3 point lead. A 3 point lead is NOTHING. In 2004 the Democrats had a lead in nearly every generic ballot poll and ended up losing the actual vote for the house by 3 points.

Prior to this poll the generic ballot numbers had moved very little all year. So obviously something has changed since November 1. Wonder if any of this is John Kerry related?
Most likely this movement is related to people having to really think about their vote. Saying you are mad at Republicans and actually voting for Democrats are two totally different things.

Maybe I need to bring back my ?Republicans will hold both houses? sig

BTW: Lots of other interesting things in this poll
Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq? 42-42 with 11 saying neither

Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 56 approve 25 disapprove. (This is another huge factor in Republican favor. I believe in the number 1994 was under 50% approve.)

All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? 44 worth, 53 not. A 8 point move in the ?worth? direction.

Only 15% of people are ?not confident? that their own vote will be accurately counted this year

And for Harvey? 47% of people believe that Bush ?Intentionally mislead the American public.

The only questionable thing about the poll, it is 33 Democrat and 34 Republican. So as long as there is a strong Republican turnout the numbers look good, but if there is not then all bets are off.
Also there are other polls that still show a large Democrat lead in the generic ballot question.

 

[imported_Aelius]

Forgive me if I contain my surprise.

 

[CellarDoor]

I have a hard time believing this poll, simply because every other poll says something very different.

Edit: Very odd, considering the Newsweek poll that came out yesterday saying the GOP lost more ground. They have the president at 35% approval, and the Democrats with a +16% advantage as far as who people would vote for. This poll seems to be in line with most of the other polls I've seen, but it'll be interesting to see whether the polls coming out in a few days agree with this ABC poll. Also, an article above the poll results says that it's very likely the Democrats will gain a majority in the house. We'll just have to see what happens I guess!

 

[Aisengard]

It could be. Nearly every competitive race has the GOP candidate awash in funds...

Heck, it would be a disgrace if the Republicans lose in NJ, not even $5 million could overcome a middling lesser-of-two-evils candidate.

GOP always has the financial advantage, which always comes into play, making polls less useful because even as they accurately reflect national mood, elections can still be bought in spite of the nation.

 

[umbrella39]

Come again?

It really comes down to who gets out the vote more.

 

[CellarDoor]

From what I've read, most Republican strategists and pollsters feel like they are going to lose 25-30 seats in the house and that the Senate will be pretty dang close either way. The Senate is pretty hard to predict at this point.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
A new Washington Post-ABC news poll has some of the best news Republicans have seen in days maybe even weeks. Link

1. Bush?s approval numbers are up to 43%, the HIGHEST they have been since January. His disapprove number is at 55, also the lowest it has been ALL year.

Since their last poll released on 10-22 there has been a 6 point swing in Bush?s favor. Sure his numbers still suck, but a 6 point move in 12 days is very bad news for Democrats who are counting on Bush?s disapproval ratings to put them over the top.

2. Maybe even bigger news. The Generic ballot question shows only a 6 point lead for the Democrats. Before you get all excited over a 6 point lead keep in mind that on 10-22 it was a 14 point lead. In 12 days the Democrats have lost 14 points!!! At that rate by Election Day they would be down to a 3 point lead. A 3 point lead is NOTHING. In 2004 the Democrats had a lead in nearly every generic ballot poll and ended up losing the actual vote for the house by 3 points.

Prior to this poll the generic ballot numbers had moved very little all year. So obviously something has changed since November 1. Wonder if any of this is John Kerry related?
Most likely this movement is related to people having to really think about their vote. Saying you are mad at Republicans and actually voting for Democrats are two totally different things.

Maybe I need to bring back my ?Republicans will hold both houses? sig

BTW: Lots of other interesting things in this poll
Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq? 42-42 with 11 saying neither

Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 56 approve 25 disapprove. (This is another huge factor in Republican favor. I believe in the number 1994 was under 50% approve.)

All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? 44 worth, 53 not. A 8 point move in the ?worth? direction.

Only 15% of people are ?not confident? that their own vote will be accurately counted this year

And for Harvey? 47% of people believe that Bush ?Intentionally mislead the American public.

The only questionable thing about the poll, it is 33 Democrat and 34 Republican. So as long as there is a strong Republican turnout the numbers look good, but if there is not then all bets are off.
Also there are other polls that still show a large Democrat lead in the generic ballot question.

LOL you are so desperate it's pathetic. Literally clutching at straws at this point. One thing I've learned from 2004 is to not trust any one poll in particular. The most important thing is to look at the trend lines and to look at averages of polls and see where momentum is shifting. Democrats are doing great right now and momentum has been shifting there way for quite a while.

 

[ProfJohn]

240-195??????
These people are on drugs.
Here 219-216 Dem favor, more resonable link
Even better, a list of a bunch of web sites link
There are two web sites with the 240-195 number, most are in the 220 range.

Average is 229-206, still high in my book.

Finally, Realclearpolitics link
12 lean Democrat
14 toss up
Means if Democrats win all the leaners and toss ups they end up at 228.

Look at their Senate projection, 51-49. They have Va as "barely Dem" and Ma as "Weak Dem" but their polls at the bottom show both races tied? I can see MA as weak or barely, but shouldn't Va be "tied" since nearly every poll has them close and within MoE?

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
LOL you are so desperate it's pathetic. Literally clutching at straws at this point. One thing I've learned from 2004 is to not trust any one poll in particular. The most important thing is to look at the trend lines and to look at averages of polls and see where momentum is shifting. Democrats are doing great right now and momentum has been shifting there way for quite a while.

ummm yea.... let's see....
Maryland- Steele is up big in the last week
Tennesse- It is all but over, Corker up 6+ now
Montana- Burns is charging back

Thats three that are all going in the Republican direction.
In Va and Mo we see little movement, a few points back and forth.

With TN off the table, Dems need to win MT, VA AND MO to get to 51 seats, not going to happen.

 

[nageov3t]

yeah, I don't think anyone is seriously considering a Dem takeover of the Senate at this point.

I'd be pretty stunned if they lost ground, though. I know I live in a bubble here in NJ -- hudson county, probably the most democratic county in the country -- but I'd be shocked if Kean won.

 

[CellarDoor]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
240-195??????
These people are on drugs.
Here 219-216 Dem favor, more resonable link
Even better, a list of a bunch of web sites link
There are two web sites with the 240-195 number, most are in the 220 range.

Average is 229-206, still high in my book.

Finally, Realclearpolitics link
12 lean Democrat
14 toss up
Means if Democrats win all the leaners and toss ups they end up at 228.

Look at their Senate projection, 51-49. They have Va as "barely Dem" and Ma as "Weak Dem" but their polls at the bottom show both races tied? I can see MA as weak or barely, but shouldn't Va be "tied" since nearly every poll has them close and within MoE?

The person who runs electoral-vote.com leans left I believe, but to be fair, he does do a pretty good job at remaining balanced on his site. I believe he does averages of recent polls to determine who is ahead at the moment. I don't think you can dispute what he listed as possible, but right now that appears to be the best case scenario for the Democrats. The electionprojection website is run by someone who clearly favors the Republicans. It's not even disputable, because he mentions it on his site several times. I actually think the average you listed is quite good, all things considered.

Oh, also, while he may color in Virginia as Dem, he clearly marks all races in the margin of error as tossups I believe. He simply gives Webb the edge because recent polls have him up 1%, even though it's in the margin of error. It's just a color although I agree it's way too close to call.

 

[CellarDoor]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
LOL you are so desperate it's pathetic. Literally clutching at straws at this point. One thing I've learned from 2004 is to not trust any one poll in particular. The most important thing is to look at the trend lines and to look at averages of polls and see where momentum is shifting. Democrats are doing great right now and momentum has been shifting there way for quite a while.

ummm yea.... let's see....
Maryland- Steele is up big in the last week
Tennesse- It is all but over, Corker up 6+ now
Montana- Burns is charging back

Thats three that are all going in the Republican direction.
In Va and Mo we see little movement, a few points back and forth.

With TN off the table, Dems need to win MT, VA AND MO to get to 51 seats, not going to happen.

It may not, but there is certainly a chance. The last poll put out by Rasmussen has Tester ahead by 4% in Montana, which seems to go along with the trend there. VA and MO are pretty mead dead even right now, so it'll depend on turnout and independents. Statistically speaking the probability of the Democrats winning both is less likely, but it's certainly possible.

 

[her209]

Did you look at the other questions John? They don't look favorable for the Republicans.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
240-195??????
These people are on drugs.
Here 219-216 Dem favor, more resonable link
Even better, a list of a bunch of web sites link
There are two web sites with the 240-195 number, most are in the 220 range.

Average is 229-206, still high in my book.

Finally, Realclearpolitics link
12 lean Democrat
14 toss up
Means if Democrats win all the leaners and toss ups they end up at 228.

Look at their Senate projection, 51-49. They have Va as "barely Dem" and Ma as "Weak Dem" but their polls at the bottom show both races tied? I can see MA as weak or barely, but shouldn't Va be "tied" since nearly every poll has them close and within MoE?

You're just being silly. Serious predictions from independant experts are putting Democratic gains at least 30 House seats at this point. You obviously didn't seek The Cook Report tonight.

That Realclear politics link is just outragious. Democractic leaners are generally going to be put at around 13 now, and around 50 seats either tossups or Democractic leaners. My guess if the website sipmly hasn't updated its predictions for awhile. For instance Republicans may very well lose CO District 5 (which notably includes Colorado Springs) and CO-4 is also definately in play at this point. That website doesn't even include CO-5 in the Republican leaners catagory let alone tossup status, even though it was close even before the Ted Haggard story broke. The website also outright doesn't include NY-20 even though there is a very strong likelyhood that John Sweeney will lose his seat after his recent domestic violence scandal and a local paper rescinding their endorsement of him.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: loki8481
yeah, I don't think anyone is seriously considering a Dem takeover of the Senate at this point.

I'd be pretty stunned if they lost ground, though. I know I live in a bubble here in NJ -- hudson county, probably the most democratic county in the country -- but I'd be shocked if Kean won.

Uh, the polictical experts on the Cook Report are all agreeing there is a an extremely strong possibility of just that. Basically you're probably looking at a 50/50 split if the Democrats fail to take the Senate. Among other things the experts agree that the trend is clearly strongly favoring Jim Webb in Virginia. (Even though the incumbant George Allen is a well known incumbant, his numbers are still staying well below 50%, which suggests undecideds are likely to break for Webb.)

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: her209
Did you look at the other questions John? They don't look favorable for the Republicans.

Even many of the ones I posted do not look good, but the point is that many of them are moving in a direction that is good for the Republicans.

Having a 43% approval rating SUCKS, but it is much better than the 30 range he had all summer or even the 40% in their last poll.

If this poll is right, and it may be an 'outlier', and the trend stays the same then Tuesday will not be as bad a night for the Republicans as we might have thought a month ago.

I can seriously see the Republicans winning the Senate races in VA, MT, TN, and maybe MD and MO, althought MO is doubtful, but still possible.

In the house, who knows, so many open seats, I am not following it that close because there is just to much going on to follow it all and get a good sense.

There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: her209
Did you look at the other questions John? They don't look favorable for the Republicans.

Even many of the ones I posted do not look good, but the point is that many of them are moving in a direction that is good for the Republicans.

Having a 43% approval rating SUCKS, but it is much better than the 30 range he had all summer or even the 40% in their last poll.

If this poll is right, and it may be an 'outlier', and the trend stays the same then Tuesday will not be as bad a night for the Republicans as we might have thought a month ago.

I can seriously see the Republicans winning the Senate races in VA, MT, TN, and maybe MD and MO, althought MO is doubtful, but still possible.

In the house, who knows, so many open seats, I am not following it that close because there is just to much going on to follow it all and get a good sense.

There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

Thats funny because the Republican Leadership is starting to concede that they will likely lose atleast 15 seats in the House.

Looking at the numbers IMHO, the dems will have 222 in the House and 48 in the Senate.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: loki8481
yeah, I don't think anyone is seriously considering a Dem takeover of the Senate at this point.

I'd be pretty stunned if they lost ground, though. I know I live in a bubble here in NJ -- hudson county, probably the most democratic county in the country -- but I'd be shocked if Kean won.

Uh, the polictical experts on the Cook Report are all agreeing there is a an extremely strong possibility of just that. Basically you're probably looking at a 50/50 split if the Democrats fail to take the Senate. Among other things the experts agree that the trend is clearly strongly favoring Jim Webb in Virginia. (Even though the incumbant George Allen is a well known incumbant, his numbers are still staying well below 50%, which suggests undecideds are likely to break for Webb.)

I'll admit to being worried about VA. Last week I thought Allen had it, then the book thing hit and what the hell happened? Stupid attack may have cost Allen. Then again Kerry may have given it back. I do not think we have seen a post Kerry comment poll yet.

Even with VA going to Webb we are at +5 Dem (w/MO going D) and +4 if Steele pulls the upset. (And Maryland is the sleeper race, Steele has ALL the momentum and a huge endorsement by a black Democratic group, might put him over the top)

I'll post a race by race poll/prediction thread tomorrow, if time allows

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Even many of the ones I posted do not look good, but the point is that many of them are moving in a direction that is good for the Republicans.

Having a 43% approval rating SUCKS, but it is much better than the 30 range he had all summer or even the 40% in their last poll.

If this poll is right, and it may be an 'outlier', and the trend stays the same then Tuesday will not be as bad a night for the Republicans as we might have thought a month ago.

I can seriously see the Republicans winning the Senate races in VA, MT, TN, and maybe MD and MO, althought MO is doubtful, but still possible.

In the house, who knows, so many open seats, I am not following it that close because there is just to much going on to follow it all and get a good sense.

There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

The approval rating poll is inarguably an outlier. Two other polls in the last week have put Bush's approval rating at 33% and 35% respectively. Maybe Bush got a very brief upsurge due to emotions after the Kerry comment, but that isn't going to carry on until election day, especially with other news now dominating discussions.

The person who thinks the Republicans will pick up seats is either mad or obviously not making a serious assessment of the situation. When you start looking over the details, the Democrats have at most 2 seats in danger in the Senate, while the Republicans potentially have as many as 8 Senate seats in danger. In the House its an even more extreme situation with House seats such as CO-5 in danger that no-one would have though it was even concievably possible that Republicans could lose before this election. (Republicans actually have a 2 to 1 registration advantage, but things such as the incumbant retiring Republican representative refusing to endorse the Republican nominee and accusing him of running "a sleezy campaign" have helped make it close even before the Ted Haggard issue.) You even have the Republican party spending money to defend NE-3 this week, which is a rather shocking development, and incidentally is another district not even in the leans Republican catagory for that Realclear Politics website. Reports are that one poll showed the Democrat ahead in that district, and Republicans are not spending money in that seat for the heck of it, but because they are worried they could lose. (There probably isn't much of a GOP turnout machine for that district because it takes time to build and they presumably assumed it wouldn't matter until they learned it was at risk during these last couple of weeks.)

 

[ntdz]

I predict Democrats take the House by narrow margin and Republicans keep Senate by 2-3 seats.

 

[Aegeon]

Here's what the newstories are saying on this subjection about the House races.

But for Republicans to retain control in the House, independent political analysts would have to be almost universally wrong in their view that Democrats are poised to win the 15 seats they need to seize control of the 435-member chamber.

Some predictions foresee a gain of up to 35 seats.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1105elex-congress1105.html

Representative Rahm Emamuel, Democrat of Illinois and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stopped short of predicting Democrats will take the House, but said, "I'm playing defense in one or two districts and offense in 46. I like those odds."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washi..._for_gains_remaining_on_the_offensive/

The basic point on the second quote is independant observers have come to similar conclusions. There are only a couple of Democrat held House seats at risk, while around 46 previously Republican controlled seats are in play at this point.

 

[theeedude]

House is enough, I don't care about the margin, since simple majority will give subpoena power to dems. But I have a good feeling about the Senate. One thing about these phone polls, they only poll people with land lines, and a lot of younger, more independent/democrat voters just have cell phones. I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as close as some people think.

 

[conjur]

Uh, the 43% is from registered voters, not from all poll respondents.


But, something does stink from that poll. Completely bucking the trend from every other poll out there.

Ah, here we go. They oversampled Conservatives in this latest version of the survey:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110406.htm

908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?


Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
11/4/06 19 42 36 2 1
10/22/06 22 42 32 2 2

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Banned Member with a new ISP
A new Washington Post-ABC news poll has some of the best news Republicans have seen in days maybe even weeks. Link

1. Bush?s approval numbers are up to 43%, the HIGHEST they have been since January. His disapprove number is at 55, also the lowest it has been ALL year.

Since their last poll released on 10-22 there has been a 6 point swing in Bush?s favor. Sure his numbers still suck, but a 6 point move in 12 days is very bad news for Democrats who are counting on Bush?s disapproval ratings to put them over the top.

2. Maybe even bigger news. The Generic ballot question shows only a 6 point lead for the Democrats. Before you get all excited over a 6 point lead keep in mind that on 10-22 it was a 14 point lead. In 12 days the Democrats have lost 14 points!!! At that rate by Election Day they would be down to a 3 point lead. A 3 point lead is NOTHING. In 2004 the Democrats had a lead in nearly every generic ballot poll and ended up losing the actual vote for the house by 3 points.

Prior to this poll the generic ballot numbers had moved very little all year. So obviously something has changed since November 1. Wonder if any of this is John Kerry related?
Most likely this movement is related to people having to really think about their vote. Saying you are mad at Republicans and actually voting for Democrats are two totally different things.

Maybe I need to bring back my ?Republicans will hold both houses? sig

BTW: Lots of other interesting things in this poll
Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq? 42-42 with 11 saying neither

Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 56 approve 25 disapprove. (This is another huge factor in Republican favor. I believe in the number 1994 was under 50% approve.)

All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? 44 worth, 53 not. A 8 point move in the ?worth? direction.

Only 15% of people are ?not confident? that their own vote will be accurately counted this year

And for Harvey? 47% of people believe that Bush ?Intentionally mislead the American public.

The only questionable thing about the poll, it is 33 Democrat and 34 Republican. So as long as there is a strong Republican turnout the numbers look good, but if there is not then all bets are off.
Also there are other polls that still show a large Democrat lead in the generic ballot question.

Good news for Republicans, bad news for America.

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: conjur
Uh, the 43% is from registered voters, not from all poll respondents.


But, something does stink from that poll. Completely bucking the trend from every other poll out there.

Ah, here we go. They oversampled Conservatives in this latest version of the survey:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110406.htm

908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?


Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
11/4/06 19 42 36 2 1
10/22/06 22 42 32 2 2

Beat me to it. Yep, PJ's in full spin again. Not only is he cherry-picking select questions to hype, his "INCREDIBLY good news" is based on an apples to oranges comparison. The previous results came from all respondents, while the current numbers he's comparing came from registered voters only. When you compare equivalent numbers, the changes are fairly modest. If you consider the 3% margin of error, the trend becomes flat. (Isn't PJ the one who has frequently dismissed other, unfavorable polls as outliers, out of sync with other polls during the same period? Given the numbers others are reporting, it's easy to see how this one poll might be a bit off.)

In any case, the Washington Post itself doesn't share PJ's conclusions. Their front page includes a headline, "Dems Could Gain Both Houses". Digging into the poll, they report that a full 31% of voters said their Congressional votes are going to be against Bush. That's double the 2002 opposition numbers. Similarly, Bush's approval rating is ten points lower than 2004; his disapproval 11 points higher (i.e., worse).

Over half of respondents named either Iraq (31%, up 10 points since September) or the economy (21%) as the single most important issue affecting their vote. A full 73% of the "Iraq" respondents and 54% of the "economy" respondents said they're voting for Democrats. The third most most important issue is healthcare, also not a good issue for Republicans. The good news for Republicans is 77% of respondents who identified terrorism as the most important issue will vote Republican. The bad news is that they are a dwindling minority, down to 11%. Sorry George, you need to find a new trick.

Finally, one other spot of good news for Republicans is that 70% of people who describe their personal financial situation as "Getting Ahead" say they'll vote Republican. Unfortunately, that's only 28% of registered respondents. A full 71% say they are either breaking even (48%) or losing ground (23%), and they say they're voting Democratic (60% and 74% respectively).