*UPDATE* Nevermind....

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Pens1566
I can't figure out who the "prof" is trying to convince, himself or the rest of us.

I am just posting the polls.... I report, you decide

 

[CellarDoor]

I still have a hard time believing this. The ABC/Washington Post and the pew poll poll took place from 11/1-11/4 The Newsweek and Time polls took place from 11/2-11/3 and 11/1-11/3. Could one extra day of polling dramatically change the results?

 

[ProfJohn]

Read this on National Review, seems to be on target (Highly edited by me for length) link

So three major polls released this weekend show Republicans cutting the Democratic advantage on the so-called "generic" question to single digits ? with Dems leading by 4, 6 or 7 points rather than the double digits they've been running consistently in recent months. I think what this tells you is almost nothing. Here's why.

If Republicans hang on to the House and Senate, it won't mean that these new polls measured any real change. It will mean, instead, that all the polling in this midterm election was garbage ? that, indeed, polling is in a crisis because it can no longer measure anything specific owing to the increasing sophistication and annoyance of Americans dealing with telephone solicitors.

What's more, pollsters know most of their polls this year were garbage, as did those who sponsored them, and yet they went ahead and did them and reported on them anyway. They were garbage because pollsters are getting response rates on their calls maybe two out of ten tries ? which means that simply for them to get enough respondents to poll, they have had to dig for every last voice they could.

In October, most news organizations and pollsters started trying to screen for voters and likely voters. But how could they possibly be trusted to achieve that aim when they can't even get most of their phone calls answered? Do you really think a news organization is going to be willing to pay for everything that goes into making 10,000 phone calls ? the phone banks, the trained personnel, the analysts, the data processors ? in order to find 1,000 genuine "likely voters" who can be appropriately placed into demographic and ideological categories reflecting the nation as a whole?

If Republicans hang on and don't really lose significantly, it will be because things were never that bad for them in the first place. And if Democrats win big, it will be because things have been bad for Republicans all year and nothing could have changed it. The only way, in fact, that the polling this weekend will be worth citing is if Republicans do vastly better than anybody believes they're going to - thus indicating a significant turn in their fortunes upward that has been measured by the poll shift in the last week.

 

[conjur]

For the new Pew poll (and just like the new ABC/WaPo poll), the results are skewed as more respondents are Conservative and fewer are Liberal:

http://people-press.org/reports/tables/295.pdf


How convenient neither poll's skew toward Republican is noted in the poll results, setting the stage for a closer election and making it easier to pass off another election theft by the public.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: conjur
For the new Pew poll (and just like the new ABC/WaPo poll), the results are skewed as more respondents are Conservative and fewer are Liberal:

http://people-press.org/reports/tables/295.pdf


How convenient neither poll's skew toward Republican is noted in the poll results, setting the stage for a closer election and making it easier to pass off another election theft by the public.

LMAO. The poll companies are in bed with the Republicans and are helping to make a so-called theft of an election seem more likely because polls that nobody reads say it could happen?

 

[theeedude]

I love how Republicans are building their hopes up over some polls. It's going to be great coming back to this thread after these hopes are dashed on tuesday.

 

[CellarDoor]

Those two polls are very weird. The new CNN poll has Republicans down 20.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/06/demos.poll/index.html

Democrats hold a 20 percentage-point advantage -- 58 percent to 38 percent -- over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning. The Democratic advantage was 11 percentage points -- 53 percent to 42 percent -- in a poll a week ago.

Pollsters asked people who identified themselves as being likely to vote which party's candidate they would vote for in their congressional district if the election were being held today. (Watch how the parties are trying to get voters to the polls -- 2:13)

On this question, the poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In the so-called "poll of polls," which averages the results of five national surveys, Democrats have a 53 percent to 41 percent margin over Republicans.

When asked if it is possible they could change their mind before Election Day, 17 percent of those likely voters who supported Republican congressional candidates said they might instead chose a Democrat, while 10 percent of those supporting Democrats said a switch was possible.

 

[CellarDoor]

Here are some predictions from some of the top political analysts. I got this from electoral-vote.com. The first entry is Democrats, the second is Republicans and the third is "not sure."

Congressional Quarterly
Senate - 48-48-2
House - 212-199-24 (switched to 213-199-23 over night)

Charlie Cook
Senate - 49-49-2
House - 223-197-15

Stu Rothenberg
Senate - 51-49
House - 237-192-6

Larry Sabato
Senate - 51-49
House 232-203

Chuck Todd
Senate - Either 48-52 or 52-48
House - Either 219-214-2 or 233-197-5

 

[getbush]

I didn't read this thread. But you've got to know something isn't right when you're excited about a disapproval rating of "only" 55%.
On a side note, who's hoping prof's contract is fulfilled at the end of tomorrow, so we will hopefully see less of him?

 

[chowderhead]

The last SurveyUSA poll just came out for Virginia Senate
Webb surges ahead 52% to Allen's 44%
Allen ran out of money over the weekend and the NRSC had to bail him out with ads. Democrats are actually outspending the Republicans in this race.
Allen is losing 2-1 in Northern Virginia in this poll and he will not win if that is the case on election night.

SUSA has been fairly accurate on their last poll before an election. They had Kaine leading Kilgore 50% to 45% in last year's Virginia Govenor's race and Kaine went on to win 52% to 46%.
It would be SWEET to retire George Felix Allen back to his dude ranch. Webb would make a great Senator. Go Webb!

 

[glugglug]

I agree with 1 point here:

The Republicans will be keeping the Senate, as Diebold could tell you. That is not to say that any of them will be ELECTED - they won't.

 

[Lemon law]

What are we doing talking about polls at this late date? The only poll that matters starts tomorrow.---less than 12 hours from now

And by my calculations---GWB&co. have less than 24 hours to find Ossama Bin Laden---or they are doomed.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Originally posted by: chowderhead
The last SurveyUSA poll just came out for Virginia Senate
Webb surges ahead 52% to Allen's 44%
Allen ran out of money over the weekend and the NRSC had to bail him out with ads. Democrats are actually outspending the Republicans in this race.
Allen is losing 2-1 in Northern Virginia in this poll and he will not win if that is the case on election night.

SUSA has been fairly accurate on their last poll before an election. They had Kaine leading Kilgore 50% to 45% in last year's Virginia Govenor's race and Kaine went on to win 52% to 46%.
It would be SWEET to retire George Felix Allen back to his dude ranch. Webb would make a great Senator. Go Webb!

How can anyone with any clear sense of humanity vote for that piece of crap allen?

 

[Jadow]

Allen is a piece of crap, but so is Webb, in that race, like most races, you're choosing between a nutty piece of crap, and a corn filled one.

Allen is a racist.

Webb is a sexist AND he wrote about a father putting his son's penis in his mouth. No matter what the circumstances, that is wierd.

 

[Pens1566]

What part of the word FICTION, don't people understand??????

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Jadow
...

Webb is a sexist AND he wrote about a father putting his son's penis in his mouth. No matter what the circumstances, that is wierd.

Tom Clancy wrote books about terrorists setting off a nuclear weapon in Denver at the Super Bowl AND a terrorist flying a plane into the Capitol. Clearly that's equally as "weird".

 

[Rainsford]

By the way, am I the only person who's amused by the fact that polls with BAD news for Republicans are just liberally biased, MSM BS that will be as wrong as they were in 2004 while polls with GOOD news for Republicans are obviously unbiased fact that requires several pages of discussion? You can't have it both ways, guys...

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Jadow
Allen is a piece of crap, but so is Webb, in that race, like most races, you're choosing between a nutty piece of crap, and a corn filled one.

Allen is a racist.

Webb is a sexist AND he wrote about a father putting his son's penis in his mouth. No matter what the circumstances, that is wierd.

So did you, weirdo!

 

[GuitarDaddy]

I'm sure the Republicans will pull all their regular tricks and surprises

Let's see, yesterday Sadaam was sentenced to death, by the end of the day I expect we will have found WMD's in Irag and have a clear lead as to OBL's whereabouts, and NK will have agreed to cease their nuclear progam.

And no doubt by the end of tuesday we will have some lost ballot boxes, disinfranchised low income voters, hanging chads, malfunctioning electronic ballot boxes, and a premptive call to the supreme court to quash any democratically called recounts

But by the end of the day, their bag of tricks will be empty and the Dems will take the House easily and come very close in the Senate

 

[jammur21]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
A new Washington Post-ABC news poll has some of the best news Republicans have seen in days maybe even weeks. Link

1. Bush?s approval numbers are up to 43%, the HIGHEST they have been since January. His disapprove number is at 55, also the lowest it has been ALL year.

Bwahahahaha
I'm sorry, that's as far as I went.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Jadow
Allen is a piece of crap, but so is Webb, in that race, like most races, you're choosing between a nutty piece of crap, and a corn filled one.

Allen is a racist.

Webb is a sexist AND he wrote about a father putting his son's penis in his mouth. No matter what the circumstances, that is wierd.

Did you read "Fields of Fire?" Or you just copy pasting Allen talking points?
Webb has written more books than Allen has read. Not only that, but he is a true American hero.

 

[palehorse]

please rename this thread to: "Polls are totally and completely useless."

thank you.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

And to that...
The AVERAGE of the most recent polls have dumbya at a staggering 37.71428% approval rating, hell, I'm feeling generous, I'll bump that up to 38%, YAY! GO STAY THE COURSE! GO MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! YAY FOR OBLITERATING HABEUS CORPUS!
And now for something completely different, the dissaproval ratings.... a cozy little 56.142857, and in the upcoming holiday spirit (Festivus), I'll round down to 56%, That's 18% points difference, in otherwords dumbya sucks bloated goats feet.

So, dumbya is stumping in Fl, but gets the big FU from the GOP candidate. I honestly couldn't stop laughing for a few minutes. 1 day before the election, and a red state, avoids dumbya like he's foley. Good job prof, you're doing a heckava spin.
Oh yea, the obligitory link.Oops...

 

[blackllotus]

Originally posted by: palehorse74
please rename this thread to: "Polls are totally and completely useless."

thank you.

I see that math is not one of your strong subjects

 

[CellarDoor]

Fox News just released a new poll that has Democrats up by 13%.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227707,00.html