*UPDATE* Nevermind....

[Thump553]

I personally care not one whit about public opinion polls. Every time I've been polled (and it's been many, many times) I always lie to the pollster. If the polls' bias is obvious, which is often the case, I give them the exact opposite answer from what they are seeking. If I can't easy guess their bias, well let me say based on my poll answers in the past, Lydon LaRoche should have been overwhelming elected president.

Why do I lie? I'd much rather have our politicians speak their minds honestly, rather than what their handlers think the people want to hear. I'd rather our politicians address the fundamental problams facing our government rather than the hot button, window dressing issues.

My father (a Goldwater type Republican) spawned this practice in me, and I have since gotten dozens of friends, family and acquaintances of all political stripes to follow suit. Hopefully the internet will help me gain a few more converts here.

Leave the polls to the spin artists like PJ. Throwing a monkey wrench in the pre-election poll process is a critical first step to returning sanity and people's control over what should be our government.

Save the polls for sports and other entertainments.

This is gong to be a tight election in any regard-the cards are so stacked against popular will through such devices as gerrymandering that it is now viewed as a major event if less than 10% of the House of Representative seats may possibly change hands this election. That's a shameful report card for the state of our democracy. Everyone should move heaven and earth to vote on Tuesday, and get as many family members, friends, etc. to do the same-and ignore all the spin beforehand.

 

[Craig234]

Thump553, I cannot endorse your practice of lying to the pollsters.

One reason is simply a basic objection to lying. But let's look at another:

You are assuming that the polls are somehow used for wrong, that they're bad and deserving of breaking. You assume that your breaking of them will get politicians to 'speak their minds honestly' rather than serve their 'handlers' helping them lie.

But this is a very weak set of assumptions. Many polls - most, it seems - have nothing to do with affecting politicians' positions. They are for other purposes, including informing the public as well as making 'the system' more efficient, which has advantages to society as well.

Even the polls that are for the politicians don't mean that the 'handlers' are using them to get the politicians to lie for any given poll. If they want to choose the topic for a speech to match a region's interests, is that so bad? Do you want the politicians to have no idea of their constituents' views on issues as they represent them, just ignore their views?

Can I suggest a better alternative: just refuse to take a poll you are uncomfortable with. You are not required to answer; this does hurt the poll, as they rely upon a high rate of response for accuracy. Any pockets of non-response create a big risk of the poll being wrong.

For John:

I am appalled that you can say the following sentence:

Only 15% of people are ?not confident? that their own vote will be accurately counted this year

Since when does one in seven Americans doubting their vote will count lead to the word "only", rather than to a great concern?

Let's try some others:

Only 15% believe that the police are likely to commit crimes against them rather than help with when they report a crime.

Only 15% believe that their local fire department sets most local fires, trying for high casualties, to ensure job security for themselves.

Only 15% believe that hospitals regularly kill patients in their care who have expensive care needs, to increase their profit.

Only 15%, indeed.

And even worse, ONLY just under 50% in the same poll say they are very confident their vote will count.

Less than half of Americans being very confident about that deserves "only".

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

I believe that person was you - that was what you had in your sig for weeks. I offered to wager with you on it and you declined. I hope my fellow members recall your boast on Wednesday morning, because you've become one of our worst partisan hacks.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

Oh yeah, this kid should be run out of town if his gloating and arrogant ways aren't justified. There are a few of them that have been braying since they won last time and they are still supremely confident the Republicans will prevail on Tuesday. Hell, they may be right, but they had better not be wrong because they either remain and have ZERO credibility, or go away.

 

[Hossenfeffer]

Originally posted by: senseamp
House is enough, I don't care about the margin, since simple majority will give subpoena power to dems. But I have a good feeling about the Senate. One thing about these phone polls, they only poll people with land lines, and a lot of younger, more independent/democrat voters just have cell phones. I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as close as some people think.

I had a good feeling about the 2004 presidential election. "There's no way in hell they would keep this yahoo in office," I thought....

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Hossenfeffer

Originally posted by: senseamp
House is enough, I don't care about the margin, since simple majority will give subpoena power to dems. But I have a good feeling about the Senate. One thing about these phone polls, they only poll people with land lines, and a lot of younger, more independent/democrat voters just have cell phones. I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as close as some people think.

I had a good feeling about the 2004 presidential election. "There's no way in hell they would keep this yahoo in office," I thought....

Me too. It's worth keeping in mind, as well, that many of the polls (particularly Zogby, whose panel I am on) are now operating online. Moreover, many of the same young people who just have cell phones can't be bothered to actually make it to the polls - I think that is part of the reason Kerry's numbers in 2004 looked better than the reality on election day.

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: DishonestJohn
Latest ABC-Washington Post poll has INCREDIBLY good news for Republicans

INCREDIBLE is a good word to describe you.

in·cred·i·ble (in-kred'?-b?l)
adj.

1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief: gave an incredible explanation of the cause of the accident.

When it comes to crediblity, you're in perfect lock step with your lying POS wannabe dictator Commando in Chief. At a press conference on April 13, 2004, he said:

One thing is for certain, though, about me -- and the world has learned this -- when I say something, I mean it. And the credibility of the United States is incredibly important for keeping world peace and freedom.

Check the polls, both across the nation and around the world. Bush's war of lies has left him with no credibility, and "the credibility of the United States" is at an all time low, or, to use his own word, incredible.

Nothing you say can or should be believed. Everything you say is dishonest, distractive dissembling and INCREDIBLE. :thumbsdown: :frown: :thumbsdown:

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Topic Title: Latest ABC-Washington Post poll has INCREDIBLY good news for Republicans
Topic Summary: If the results are true then Tuesday will be a very long night for Democrats
Good news for Republicans, bad news for America.

Only the people that hate America and love destroying would find this news as "good".

The Republican party:

Party of Hate

Party of Spend spend spend

Party of Lies

Party of hypocracy

Party of holier than though but hands caught in the fudge jar on a regular basis.

Party of huge Government

Thie list goes on and but unfortunately the majority of American sheeple like it and continously say thank you may I have another.

Although I learned how history repeats itself I didn't know that the people enjoyed going down in flames.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Topic Title: Latest ABC-Washington Post poll has INCREDIBLY good news for Republicans
Topic Summary: If the results are true then Tuesday will be a very long night for Democrats
Good news for Republicans, bad news for America.

Only the people that hate America and love destroying would find this news as "good".

The Republican party:

Party of Hate

Party of Spend spend spend

Party of Lies

Party of hypocracy

Party of holier than though but hands caught in the fudge jar on a regular basis.

Party of huge Government

Thie list goes on and but unfortunately the majority of American sheeple like it and continously say thank you may I have another.

Although I learned how history repeats itself I didn't know that the people enjoyed going down in flames.

Do me a favor, don't use my posts to try and back up your bullsh!t.

 

[trenchfoot]

n/m

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: DonVito

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

I believe that person was you - that was what you had in your sig for weeks. I offered to wager with you on it and you declined. I hope my fellow members recall your boast on Wednesday morning, because you've become one of our worst partisan hacks.

There was someone in an article or OP-ED I found on realclearpolitcs who made that very strange statement.

I think the Republicans could keep both houese, but there is no way they are going to add seats.

New Polls: Mason-Dixon
Chafee - up 1
Corker - up 12
Cardin - up 3
McCaskill - up 1
Webb - Up 1
Burns - tied
Corker seems high, Chafee would be incredable surprise.

 

[Rainsford]

You know, normally a single poll that dramatically contradicts every other poll out there is not considered "good news", it's considered an outlier. But hey, whatever makes you happy.

My prediction, the Dems will take the House by several seats (I'm saying a majority of 10 to 15 seats) and the Senate will stay Republican by a 2 seat majority. Good enough for me. And even if the Dems don't take control of the House OR Senate, it's still good news for America. The Dems will win several races at least, while the Republicans will barely be able to hold onto their majority. I think that sends a message to the Republicans that they have 2 years to NOT cater to the extreme right or 2008 is going to see more of a slide towards the Dems. Republicans managing to hold both houses will be treated as a huge victory by Republicans, but I hope they realize what it really means...the country is not moving towards the right, they need to get back to being real conservatives if they don't want more losses in 2008.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: conjur
Uh, the 43% is from registered voters, not from all poll respondents.

Registered voters is all that matters, really should be using likely voters.

My post was about the election and how its out come may be affected by these polls. Asking people who aren't even registered their opinion is worthless since they can't vote anyway.

 

[CellarDoor]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

I think the Republicans could keep both houese, but there is no way they are going to add seats.

I don't think even Republicans think this is realistic anymore. Most Republican Strategists feel a realistic outcome will be losing 25-30 seats.

 

[LEDominator]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Topic Title: Latest ABC-Washington Post poll has INCREDIBLY good news for Republicans
Topic Summary: If the results are true then Tuesday will be a very long night for Democrats
Good news for Republicans, bad news for America.

Only the people that hate America and love destroying would find this news as "good".

The Republican party:

Party of Hate

Party of Spend spend spend

Party of Lies

Party of hypocracy

Party of holier than though but hands caught in the fudge jar on a regular basis.

Party of huge Government

Thie list goes on and but unfortunately the majority of American sheeple like it and continously say thank you may I have another.

Although I learned how history repeats itself I didn't know that the people enjoyed going down in flames.

Do me a favor, don't use my posts to try and back up your bullsh!t.

lol, p0wned

 

[miketheidiot]

i still expect the worst, democrats will cose the gap a bit in the house, stay even in the senate.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: DonVito

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
There is actually someone out there who thought the Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate and House... might have been on drugs he found in Pastor Ted's trash though.
But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

I believe that person was you - that was what you had in your sig for weeks. I offered to wager with you on it and you declined. I hope my fellow members recall your boast on Wednesday morning, because you've become one of our worst partisan hacks.

There was someone in an article or OP-ED I found on realclearpolitcs who made that very strange statement.

I think the Republicans could keep both houese, but there is no way they are going to add seats.

New Polls: Mason-Dixon
Chafee - up 1
Corker - up 12
Cardin - up 3
McCaskill - up 1
Webb - Up 1
Burns - tied
Corker seems high, Chafee would be incredable surprise.

What is your love affair with the outlier polls? Mason-Dixon is using 2004 turnouts as a basis. Whitehouse is up double digits in most every other poll but is down 1% to Chafee in theirs? And you see nothing wrong with that?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...te/ri/rhode_island_senate_race-17.html

RCP Average 10/19 - 11/01 - 40.5 48.3 10.3 Whitehouse +7.8
Mason-Dixon 10/31 - 11/01 625 LV 46 45 9 Chafee +1.0
Reuters/Zogby 10/24 - 10/31 600 LV 39 53 6 Whitehouse +14.0
Rhode Island College 10/23 - 10/25 408 RV 33 43 24 Whitehouse +10.0
Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 500 LV 44 52 2 Whitehouse +8.0

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Topic Title: Latest ABC-Washington Post poll has INCREDIBLY good news for Republicans
Topic Summary: If the results are true then Tuesday will be a very long night for Democrats
Good news for Republicans, bad news for America.

Only the people that hate America and love destroying would find this news as "good".

The Republican party:

Party of Hate

Party of Spend spend spend

Party of Lies

Party of hypocracy

Party of holier than though but hands caught in the fudge jar on a regular basis.

Party of huge Government

Thie list goes on and but unfortunately the majority of American sheeple like it and continously say thank you may I have another.

Although I learned how history repeats itself I didn't know that the people enjoyed going down in flames.

Do me a favor, don't use my posts to try and back up your bullsh!t.

Awwwwww :heart: you too.

Don't fret I'm sure ost of your heros will still be in power after Tuesday.

 

[Lemon law]

Upon reflection---and examining the latter end title of this thread---namely " if true, Tuesday will be a very long night for the democrats. "

Well---the last six years have been nothing but a long national nightmare for us democrats---as we have seen the Republicans lurch off on a unstoppable junket of ruining the
very country we love---and I hope to wake up Wednesday morning and see that long national nightmare ended---as at long last GWB will be deterred in his unchecked
agenda of absolutely ruining the United States of America.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I can seriously see the Republicans winning the Senate races in VA, MT, TN, and maybe MD and MO, althought MO is doubtful, but still possible.

But I can see the Republican keeping both houses.

Steele winning in Maryland? Good luck with that.

Republican keeping BOTH houses?
Wanna wager on it? What's your bet?

 

[imported_Lothar]

I don't trust Mason-Dixon polls for anything.

Chafee up in Rhode Island?
What next will they come up with, Santorum up in Pennsylvania?

 

[Lemon law]

Barring a 911 size event--little that happens in the next few days will effect the election one way or the other----and with the one poll that really matters so close at hand, why put any faith in any other poll? In 45 hours or so, 98% of the races will be already known----by 72 hours the figure should be up to 99.8%.

If asked to realistically predict net outcome----dems take the house by 5 seats or more----the senate stays republican by 2 seats max. With maybe minus three on that making it possible for the dems to take the senate--or just tie.

But gotta remember Jack Abramoff is still out there as a big joker in the deck----and singing Jack could easily take two or more republican senators with him very soon--if they get replaced with dems---Cheney can slink back to his undisclosed location---if he can no longer break any ties.

So even when its over---it may not be over--it ain't really over till the stool pigeon sings.

Just a little happy thought for Non Prof John---who may yet have the experience of having a temporary grin whipped off his face---as justice finally catches up to quite a few.

 

[ProfJohn]

For all of you talking about the WAPO-ABC poll being outliers here are some more Generic Ballot polls.
All these are taken from Real Clear politics.

Last 5 polls
USA Today Gallup Dems +7
ABC-WAPO Dems +6
Pew Research Dems +4
Newsweek Dems +16
Time Dems +15
Average Dems +9.6

So the three most recent polls all show only a 4-7 point advantage for the Democrats.
That is some HUGE movement for the Republican Party. I am sure there are a lot of Republicans looking at these polls and breathing easier.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
For all of you talking about the WAPO-ABC poll being outliers here are some more Generic Ballot polls.
All these are taken from Real Clear politics.

Last 5 polls
USA Today Gallup Dems +7
ABC-WAPO Dems +6
Pew Research Dems +4
Newsweek Dems +16
Time Dems +15
Average Dems +9.6

So the three most recent polls all show only a 4-7 point advantage for the Democrats.
That is some HUGE movement for the Republican Party. I am sure there are a lot of Republicans looking at these polls and breathing easier.

What about all those exit polls Diebold defied for y'all?

 

[Pens1566]

I can't figure out who the "prof" is trying to convince, himself or the rest of us.