Trump wins Iowa - is anyone surprised?

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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,830
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Setting aside he's ineligible, I like that he's under performing again. I expect that to continue, especially now that his brain seems to be getting less oxygen by the day. Guy is one step away from being a vegetable in a diaper.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden wins the write in effort in NH and switches the first primary to SC, just like he wanted.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,758
8,290
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The best part of the two primaries so far are the exit polls showing what % of GQP voters aren't going to support Trump in the general if he's the nominee.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,248
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I've been talking to years to anyone who would listen that Trump was going to split the Republican party, resulting in a democratic hegemony for a decade or two until someone else got their shit together.

I don't think it's Trump splitting the party, so much as a split party finding themselves a Trump. If he didn't exist they'd have invented him.

The Tories here seem to also be irretrievably-split into feuding factions (though it's more multi-polar in their case, more than just two sects). I reckon it's something socio-economic that is causing the right to splinter everywhere.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,486
12,594
146
I don't think it's Trump splitting the party, so much as a split party finding themselves a Trump. If he didn't exist they'd have invented him.

The Tories here seem to also be irretrievably-split into feuding factions (though it's more multi-polar in their case, more than just two sects). I reckon it's something socio-economic that is causing the right to splinter everywhere.
Nah, you've got tons of disillusioned Republicans that turned into nobody-but-trumpers around 2015. It may not have required Trump to make that happen but Trump was definitely the fulcrum.

Mind you, the progressives in the US are ripe for a similar treatment. A charismatic horror show could do the same thing on the other end.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,309
6,951
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Nah, you've got tons of disillusioned Republicans that turned into nobody-but-trumpers around 2015. It may not have required Trump to make that happen but Trump was definitely the fulcrum.

Mind you, the progressives in the US are ripe for a similar treatment. A charismatic horror show could do the same thing on the other end.

Jon Stewart!!!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
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Setting aside he's ineligible, I like that he's under performing again. I expect that to continue, especially now that his brain seems to be getting less oxygen by the day. Guy is one step away from being a vegetable in a diaper.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden wins the write in effort in NH and switches the first primary to SC, just like he wanted.
Yeah, a lot of this depends on how you view Trump. If you view him as a regular candidate it's a perfectly decent showing in NH for him. If you view him as the incumbent, it's a very bad showing for him, on par with GHWB in 1992.
 
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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Trump is the national populist candidate: a lot of blue collar workers want the economic security nets but don't want to share them with immigrants and "outsiders", so you get a kind of freaky economically "liberal" but socially conservative Frankenstein's monster of a political movement.

The blue blood pubs that have lost their party were the fiscally conservative and socially moderate crowd and they're pretty god damn homeless right now.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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If Trump continues to decline mentally at this rate and still is the nominee, Biden will wipe the floor with him. All he needs is one debate.
 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
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If Trump continues to decline mentally at this rate and still is the nominee, Biden will wipe the floor with him. All he needs is one debate.

In the case of Trump and Biden in a debate, Trump will be screaming his face off with lie after lie after bald faced lie in his attempts to literally smother any fact and truths that Biden brings up about him of which Trump won't be able to credibly refute. It will be Trump attempting to control the narrative by spewing forth the same worn out talking points and catch phrases, incessantly interrupting Biden's comments. He will be totally ignoring the rules he'd previously agreed to along with being deaf to the host's efforts to establish some manner of decorum in the "debate".

His main objective will be to wreck the debate and turn it into "The Trump Carnival and Freak Show" virtually shoving Biden off the stage. It will be all about him and how he was victimized by "The Establishment" and the evil hoax liberal media.

edit - grammar
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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In the case of Trump and Biden in a debate, Trump will be screaming his face off with lie after lie after bald faced lie in his attempts to literally smother any fact and truths that Biden brings up about him of which Trump won't be able to credibly refute. It will be Trump attempting to control the narrative by spewing forth the same worn out talking points and catch phrases, incessantly interrupting Biden's comments. He will be totally ignoring the rules he'd previously agreed to along with being deaf to the host's efforts to establish some manner of decorum in the "debate".

His main objective will be to wreck the debate and turn it into "The Trump Carnival and Freak Show" virtually shoving Biden off the stage. It will be all about him and how he was victimized by "The Establishment" and the evil hoax liberal media.

edit - grammar
of course, but by then he will be way farther gone and he'll be the one looking mentally incompetent while Biden seems refreshing compared to dementia Trump
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
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In the case of Trump and Biden in a debate, Trump will be screaming his face off with lie after lie after bald faced lie in his attempts to literally smother any fact and truths that Biden brings up about him of which Trump won't be able to credibly refute. It will be Trump attempting to control the narrative by spewing forth the same worn out talking points and catch phrases, incessantly interrupting Biden's comments. He will be totally ignoring the rules he'd previously agreed to along with being deaf to the host's efforts to establish some manner of decorum in the "debate".

His main objective will be to wreck the debate and turn it into "The Trump Carnival and Freak Show" virtually shoving Biden off the stage. It will be all about him and how he was victimized by "The Establishment" and the evil hoax liberal media.

edit - grammar
I mean that's what he did in 2020 and it was not particularly effective.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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I'm not sure there will even be debates this time.

I doubt the Trump team would agree, which is why I said Biden just needs one. That would be best case scenario because the Trump team will advise him not to but dementia Trump might be even more adamant to do one to show how he can point out photos of whales and Biden is the patient, not him.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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In the case of Trump and Biden in a debate, Trump will be screaming his face off with lie after lie after bald faced lie in his attempts to literally smother any fact and truths that Biden brings up about him of which Trump won't be able to credibly refute. It will be Trump attempting to control the narrative by spewing forth the same worn out talking points and catch phrases, incessantly interrupting Biden's comments. He will be totally ignoring the rules he'd previously agreed to along with being deaf to the host's efforts to establish some manner of decorum in the "debate".

His main objective will be to wreck the debate and turn it into "The Trump Carnival and Freak Show" virtually shoving Biden off the stage. It will be all about him and how he was victimized by "The Establishment" and the evil hoax liberal media.

edit - grammar
They put him in a box last time after his first debate, I'm sure they'll just start with one this time around.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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Trump is the national populist candidate: a lot of blue collar workers want the economic security nets but don't want to share them with immigrants and "outsiders", so you get a kind of freaky economically "liberal" but socially conservative Frankenstein's monster of a political movement.

That's not that freaky. It was always one strand of fascism.

It might not be exactly the same thing but it's at least a relative of Strasserism

Fascism comes in many forms. Mussolini was at one point a socialist and for a considerable time was a "small state" neoliberal.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
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I don't think it's Trump splitting the party, so much as a split party finding themselves a Trump. If he didn't exist they'd have invented him.

The Tories here seem to also be irretrievably-split into feuding factions (though it's more multi-polar in their case, more than just two sects). I reckon it's something socio-economic that is causing the right to splinter everywhere.
You have the right wingers that only want to tear down their "enemies" and really don't care about anything else, it's about identity and grievance. Then you have right wingers that actually care about conservate policies. The two don't mesh well.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,830
37,997
136
Trump is the national populist candidate: a lot of blue collar workers want the economic security nets but don't want to share them with immigrants and "outsiders", so you get a kind of freaky economically "liberal" but socially conservative Frankenstein's monster of a political movement.

The blue blood pubs that have lost their party were the fiscally conservative and socially moderate crowd and they're pretty god damn homeless right now.


... and the GQP is going to find large numbers of them crashing with friends this November, again.

That's been one of the more satisfying parts of their defeats these last four years, for me. Not just Team Treason losing, but losing in places they just shouldn't. Watching magats trying to process, then rationalize, the notion of a registered red voting blue...

*chef's kiss* I wish I could bottle that.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
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... and the GQP is going to find large numbers of them crashing with friends this November, again.

That's been one of the more satisfying parts of their defeats these last four years, for me. Not just Team Treason losing, but losing in places they just shouldn't. Watching magats trying to process, then rationalize, the notion of a registered red voting blue...

*chef's kiss* I wish I could bottle that.
They seem to have rationalized it as 'they are cheating in every election we don't win' but even there I'm sure on one level they know they are lying and this is performative.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,035
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... and the GQP is going to find large numbers of them crashing with friends this November, again.

That's been one of the more satisfying parts of their defeats these last four years, for me. Not just Team Treason losing, but losing in places they just shouldn't. Watching magats trying to process, then rationalize, the notion of a registered red voting blue...

*chef's kiss* I wish I could bottle that.

- A potentially worrying outcome is a significant portion of these folks become Dem voters and drive the Dem establishment even further to the right than it already is.

Then the center left is homeless (the far left has always been homeless in US politics so no loss there).
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
49,097
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- A potentially worrying outcome is a significant portion of these folks become Dem voters and drive the Dem establishment even further to the right than it already is.

Then the center left is homeless (the far left has always been homeless in US politics so no loss there).
The Democratic establishment is not on the right. They may be less liberal than you would like them to be, but they are most certainly liberal.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,303
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Politico had an interesting piece on what a NH MAGAt says and "thinks":


- A potentially worrying outcome is a significant portion of these folks become Dem voters and drive the Dem establishment even further to the right than it already is.

Then the center left is homeless (the far left has always been homeless in US politics so no loss there).
Many feared Joe Biden was a moderate/centrist by traditional standards, but he's surprised people with his progressive chops.

The two main parties are a grand canyon apart now and I'm not aware of evidence that the Democratic Party has moved towards the center in recent times. The progressive wing may not have a lot of clout, but at least they usually have a seat at the table.
 
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