@interchange @fskimospy
Have followed the conversation between you two with interest even though I know nothing about statistics or polling. What I do ask myself, however, is what I feel about the discussion and what it may be at cause for your differing points of view. What I think is this:
From the link provided by
@Paratus: "First, the “shy Trump” theory relies on the notion of
social desirability bias — the idea that people are reluctant to reveal unpopular opinions."
I ask myself who are these opinions unpopular with, liberals, and do conservative fear or are proud they differ especially given that what they seem to be about is sticking it to liberals.
Consider the idea of shame and guilt and having been put down as a child for it, to the point that Stockholm Syndrome is the only way to preserve ones own life. People who have been shamed will trigger when someone attempts to shame them and birds of that feather will band together and put up a happy face to fend off criticism. They will look for a chance to distinguish themselves among their peers when it comes to manifesting pride in being what they were originally made to feel ashamed about. In short they will be shame immune and manifest contempt for others and hubris. So, their whole psychological structure, based on shame, will be denial and immunity to anything looking like it.
That tells me that while they are unconsciously inwardly divided, ashamed at an unconscious level, they will be outwardly eager to stick you in the eye with their incredible capacity for obtuseness in the face of being shamed. I would expect a strong outward manifestation of pride at being the assholes they had to become to survive as children.
It seems to me then that if you are psychologically focused on what motivates behavior and are not personally Stockholm Syndrome converted, you will instinctively sense that people will hide what they think others will find disgusting, but if your whole life is tied up with not wanting to know you were broken as a child and do not want to relive that pain in order to remember, you will manifest false pride and enthusiasm at being the asshole you had to become.
There has to be a point at which these two types intersect and become ambivalent, seems to me.