Trump Will Win Re-election for 2020 (Personal Prediction)

[Jhhnn]

I always appreciate your optimism about the election as it makes me feel better. However, I'll wait and see what the actual outcome is. High dem turnout is a strong possibility in this election year given what is at stake but it isn't guaranteed and Trump has an EC advantage plus the willingness to exceed all bounds of morality to win this election. We'll see how it turns out.

I am in the middle between your unbridled optimism and Hal's unbridled pessimism here.

2018 was just warming up. We'd have whupped Trump then, given the opportunity. Younger women voted much more in 2018 than in the past. I figure 2020 will be even stronger given Ginsberg's passing. She is very much admired among younger women while Trump is very much despised-

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... n-elected/

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/26/18516645/ ... out-census

And if the sight of Trump staging giant covid parties all over the country with his maskless morons doesn't drive off seniors it's only because they're brain dead.

 

[zzyzxroad]

I want you to be right, and I think this is where this will go, but I really never thought that our grip on democracy was so tenuous. Never in my lifetime, would I have thought I would see this.

100%. After Barr showed his true colors my heart sank. Up until that point I thought trump could be kept in check.

 

[sportage]

Trump now says he wants an final outcome on election night. Not the next day, not a week later, but on election night. That decision is what Donald Trump will use his brand new trump Supreme Court for. The high court could cease all vote counting at midnight on November 3rd, and declare Donald Trump the winner. I know that sounds stupid but that is how Trump thinks and what Trump will expect. This assumes that Trump is ahead at midnight, otherwise the count will continue after midnight and cease the moment Donald Trump pulls ahead in the count. What also to expect, that Donald Trump will go by the popular vote and not the EC. If all goes according to Donald Trump wishes, we will have a dictatorship come November 4th.

 

[Moonbeam]

100%. After Barr showed his true colors my heart sank. Up until that point I thought trump could be kept in check.

It is, in my opinion, totally inexplicable unless you understand self hate. Then it is possible to provide a grounding for projection and denial, and why people would kill rather than feel what they feel. It also explains why the real explanation, the truth about ourselves, is never well known, why all truth is called lies. PS: This is also why the reason seniors or anybody for that matter appears to be brain dead. We are ignorant by intent we will not see.

 

[fskimospy]

This isn't repeated tests of the same experimental conditions. These are separate polls with varying methods at different points of time in different locations, etc. Such a regression analysis would not be appropriate. And even if I were to say that it would be appropriate, we'd have to first establish an understanding of how much of a "shy Trump voter" effect would we consider meaningful. And use that to do a power analysis to see if our regression was adequately powered to reject the null hypothesis that a "shy Trump voter effect" doesn't exist.

A regression would most certainly be suitable here, I think you’re mistaking clinical tests for social science. You cannot achieve clinical levels of accuracy here, but you can inform yourself about what is likely.

As for how much an effect we would agree on as meaningful, not really. You can run your analysis and see what you get and then have an informed discussion about what it means, if anything.

As far as what you would need to do before running your model you would need to do far more than a power analysis, you would also need to check for autocorrelation between your IVs, see if your model was endogenous (or really, how endogenous your model is), ensure your other IVs are significant themselves, check for heteroskedasticity, etc. If you thought doing a power analysis was all you needed you’re woefully misinformed. If you didn’t, I don’t know why you thought mentioning one preliminary step out of many was important?

Hence my asterisk about what constitutes "proof".

The absence of evidence sufficient to establish something to be true in experimental conditions does not mean absence of evidence in absolute.

I agree!

Don't be ridiculous. You wouldn't have to contact and test every person who voted for Trump. You'd just have to contact enough. But having access to who a person voted for period is facially ridiculous. That was my point.

No. That would not be an appropriate analysis. And if it were, we'd have to ensure it was adequately powered to detect an error at whatever magnitude we might consider significant.

You are of course welcome to your opinion but for the reasons stated above I don’t get the sense you are very familiar with this area. The idea that you cannot use polls with varying methodologies and times in the aggregate to extract meaningful information about voter attributes through a model would be news to a whole lot of very skilled statisticians, for example.

Why do you keep missing that I have said I cannot prove it exists over and over again?

Why do you think I am missing that? I would suggest you re-read my contributions to this thread. I’m not saying you need to PROVE that shy Trump voters exist, I’m telling you the available evidence indicates the opposite, so believing something without evidence (or in this case in the face of contrary evidence) is foolish.

Is that your personal opinion, or do you think that is what the evidence suggests?

If the latter, would you like to actually provide evidence of the sort beyond my ability to do the impossible?

That is my interpretation of the evidence. Paratus has already provided this evidence but in case you missed it here you go again. I hope you read it with an open mind and reconsider your position.

‘Shy’ Voters Probably Aren’t Why The Polls Missed Trump

Donald Trump won the presidential election despite polls that indicated Hillary Clinton was favored. One popular explanation for this is that some people were a…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[fskimospy]

One more thing to note is if there were evidence of a shy Trump effect I would be fine with that - it would be good for pollsters to know so they could try and correct for it!

The thing is there isn’t, so pretending that’s not the case would make the polls less accurate, not more. That’s not good for anyone.

 

[Moonbeam]

@interchange @fskimospy
Have followed the conversation between you two with interest even though I know nothing about statistics or polling. What I do ask myself, however, is what I feel about the discussion and what it may be at cause for your differing points of view. What I think is this:

From the link provided by @Paratus: "First, the “shy Trump” theory relies on the notion of social desirability bias — the idea that people are reluctant to reveal unpopular opinions."

I ask myself who are these opinions unpopular with, liberals, and do conservative fear or are proud they differ especially given that what they seem to be about is sticking it to liberals.

Consider the idea of shame and guilt and having been put down as a child for it, to the point that Stockholm Syndrome is the only way to preserve ones own life. People who have been shamed will trigger when someone attempts to shame them and birds of that feather will band together and put up a happy face to fend off criticism. They will look for a chance to distinguish themselves among their peers when it comes to manifesting pride in being what they were originally made to feel ashamed about. In short they will be shame immune and manifest contempt for others and hubris. So, their whole psychological structure, based on shame, will be denial and immunity to anything looking like it.

That tells me that while they are unconsciously inwardly divided, ashamed at an unconscious level, they will be outwardly eager to stick you in the eye with their incredible capacity for obtuseness in the face of being shamed. I would expect a strong outward manifestation of pride at being the assholes they had to become to survive as children.

It seems to me then that if you are psychologically focused on what motivates behavior and are not personally Stockholm Syndrome converted, you will instinctively sense that people will hide what they think others will find disgusting, but if your whole life is tied up with not wanting to know you were broken as a child and do not want to relive that pain in order to remember, you will manifest false pride and enthusiasm at being the asshole you had to become.

There has to be a point at which these two types intersect and become ambivalent, seems to me.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Technically, HRC was favored in 2016, by 3 million votes.

 

[fskimospy]

@interchange @fskimospy
Have followed the conversation between you two with interest even though I know nothing about statistics or polling. What I do ask myself, however, is what I feel about the discussion and what it may be at cause for your differing points of view. What I think is this:

From the link provided by @Paratus: "First, the “shy Trump” theory relies on the notion of social desirability bias — the idea that people are reluctant to reveal unpopular opinions."

I ask myself who are these opinions unpopular with, liberals, and do conservative fear or are proud they differ especially given that what they seem to be about is sticking it to liberals.

Consider the idea of shame and guilt and having been put down as a child for it, to the point that Stockholm Syndrome is the only way to preserve ones own life. People who have been shamed will trigger when someone attempts to shame them and birds of that feather will band together and put up a happy face to fend off criticism. They will look for a chance to distinguish themselves among their peers when it comes to manifesting pride in being what they were originally made to feel ashamed about. In short they will be shame immune and manifest contempt for others and hubris. So, their whole psychological structure, based on shame, will be denial and immunity to anything looking like it.

That tells me that while they are unconsciously inwardly divided, ashamed at an unconscious level, they will be outwardly eager to stick you in the eye with their incredible capacity for obtuseness in the face of being shamed. I would expect a strong outward manifestation of pride at being the assholes they had to become to survive as children.

It seems to me then that if you are psychologically focused on what motivates behavior and are not personally Stockholm Syndrome converted, you will instinctively sense that people will hide what they think others will find disgusting, but if your whole life is tied up with not wanting to know you were broken as a child and do not want to relive that pain in order to remember, you will manifest false pride and enthusiasm at being the asshole you had to become.

There has to be a point at which these two types intersect and become ambivalent, seems to me.

While I wouldn’t try to speculate on their motivations I do think you raise an important point -the shy Trump voter idea seems to mostly come from liberal minded people. WE would be ashamed to vote for Trump so we assume others are too. What if they aren’t?

 

[Moonbeam]

While I wouldn’t try to speculate on their motivations I do think you raise an important point -the shy Trump voter idea seems to mostly come from liberal minded people. WE would be ashamed to vote for Trump so we assume others are too. What if they aren’t?

I believe that shame is organic, that we were built to feel it, that it is part of what it means to be humanly empathetic. It is also something, therefore, that can be manipulated and used to exert control, shaming children to make them behave. Correcting behavior of children can either evoke the child's natural shame and desire for self respect, or it can be used to destroy the capacity to experience empathy altogether. It is the latter, I believe, that makes the conservative punitive nature and the need for denial of any personal responsibility, that being something they demand of others but never themselves. It is also why the disease can be culturally based.

 

[Jhhnn]

The notion that one time Trump voters turned shy over the last 4 years is laughable, other than for the ones who don't want to talk about how they screwed up back then. I'm sure there are plenty.

 

[interchange]

A regression would most certainly be suitable here, I think you’re mistaking clinical tests for social science. You cannot achieve clinical levels of accuracy here, but you can inform yourself about what is likely.

As for how much an effect we would agree on as meaningful, not really. You can run your analysis and see what you get and then have an informed discussion about what it means, if anything.

As far as what you would need to do before running your model you would need to do far more than a power analysis, you would also need to check for autocorrelation between your IVs, see if your model was endogenous (or really, how endogenous your model is), ensure your other IVs are significant themselves, check for heteroskedasticity, etc. If you thought doing a power analysis was all you needed you’re woefully misinformed. If you didn’t, I don’t know why you thought mentioning one preliminary step out of many was important?

I agree!



You are of course welcome to your opinion but for the reasons stated above I don’t get the sense you are very familiar with this area. The idea that you cannot use polls with varying methodologies and times in the aggregate to extract meaningful information about voter attributes through a model would be news to a whole lot of very skilled statisticians, for example.



Why do you think I am missing that? I would suggest you re-read my contributions to this thread. I’m not saying you need to PROVE that shy Trump voters exist, I’m telling you the available evidence indicates the opposite, so believing something without evidence (or in this case in the face of contrary evidence) is foolish.



That is my interpretation of the evidence. Paratus has already provided this evidence but in case you missed it here you go again. I hope you read it with an open mind and reconsider your position.

‘Shy’ Voters Probably Aren’t Why The Polls Missed Trump

Donald Trump won the presidential election despite polls that indicated Hillary Clinton was favored. One popular explanation for this is that some people were a…

fivethirtyeight.com

You seem to be speaking with more authority on what you do know and with greater awareness of the limits of your knowledge. I'm satisfied now that we've had a productive conversation on the topic.

As to whether I've changed my mind about the existence of a shy Trump voter effect. Why do you hope I have reconsidered?

 

[ivwshane]

You seem to be speaking with more authority on what you do know and with greater awareness of the limits of your knowledge. I'm satisfied now that we've had a productive conversation on the topic.

As to whether I've changed my mind about the existence of a shy Trump voter effect. Why do you hope I have reconsidered?

You've taken up multiple pages of this thread while not supporting your opinion with a single bit of evidence. If you haven't reconsidered and still insist on proving a negative while still believing a feeling, well, thanks for wasting everyone's time. The same result could have been achieved in one post each where you simply degenerate each other.

 

[fskimospy]

You seem to be speaking with more authority on what you do know and with greater awareness of the limits of your knowledge. I'm satisfied now that we've had a productive conversation on the topic.

As to whether I've changed my mind about the existence of a shy Trump voter effect. Why do you hope I have reconsidered?

1) because I think it’s true.

2) because you seem like a thoughtful person and I think highly of that. Always good to have someone validate your good opinion of them.

 

[sportage]

Trumpies have started a new attack on Biden with claiming Joe Biden is a home-breaker. Joe took the wife of another man. Broke up that marriage. This is supposedly coming from the x-spouse telling how bad Joe Biden is and how Joe took his wife. The whole time I’m listening to this nonsense I had only one word in mind. Stormy.

 

[ivwshane]

Trumpies have started a new attack on Biden with claiming Joe Biden is a home-breaker. Joe took the wife of another man. Broke up that marriage. This is supposedly coming from the x-spouse telling how bad Joe Biden is and how Joe took his wife. The whole time I’m listening to this nonsense I had only one word in mind. Stormy.

That’s different though, Melania was pregnant at the time so it’s ok.

 

[K1052]

Should something like this happen all bets are off since government would no longer be legitimate even by the f'd up standards we've tolerated since 2000. A total failure of the experiment that could plausibly lead the the breakup of the country. All because Republicans are unwilling to lose no matter the cost.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308752801766543362

 

[fskimospy]

Should something like this happen all bets are off since government would no longer be legitimate even by the f'd up standards we've tolerated since 2000. A total failure of the experiment that could plausibly lead the the breakup of the county. All because Republicans are unwilling to lose no matter the cost.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308752801766543362

Hey Republicans who kept complaining about a coup? That’s what you call a coup.

Assuming this is accurate, those sources should come forward immediately as Trump poses a direct threat to US democracy.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Hey Republicans who kept complaining about a coup? That’s what you call a coup.

Assuming this is accurate, those sources should come forward immediately as Trump poses a direct threat to US democracy.

Don't you understand, if they come forward now then the Trump administration just comes after them. Trump whistles and Barr DOJ attacks. The Conservatives media paints it all as a 'Anti-Trump conspiracy' it hits a news cycle or two, and then Trump does something like claim in one of his speeches that he is considering using MOABS to stop the fires in California, and poof! it is forgotten.

They have to hold off until they have some hard evidence of real tampering, indisputable proof, and then it is about a 50/50 chance that it will be able to become a major incident. It is likely Trump will just follow thorough with his idea and drop MOABS on a small town in California and it will be forgotten in the new, less dangerous to Trump but more sensational, scandal of the President blowing up a small US town with bombs, if it happens that one or two people refused to evacuate and died by those bombs, well then no one is going to even care that he literally is stealing the election while it happens.

 

[K1052]

Hey Republicans who kept complaining about a coup? That’s what you call a coup.

Assuming this is accurate, those sources should come forward immediately as Trump poses a direct threat to US democracy.

Also nothing projects confidence in a win like....plotting to overthrow the republic. If this is even passing peoples lips they know internally his odds are bad.

 

[fskimospy]

Don't you understand, if they come forward now then the Trump administration just comes after them. Trump whistles and Barr DOJ attacks. The Conservatives media paints it all as a 'Anti-Trump conspiracy' it hits a news cycle or two, and then Trump does something like claim in one of his speeches that he is considering using MOABS to stop the fires in California, and poof! it is forgotten.

They have to hold off until they have some hard evidence of real tampering, indisputable proof, and then it is about a 50/50 chance that it will be able to become a major incident. It is likely Trump will just follow thorough with his idea and drop MOABS on a small town in California and it will be forgotten in the new, less dangerous to Trump but more sensational, scandal of the President blowing up a small US town with bombs, if it happens that one or two people refused to evacuate and died by those bombs, well then no one is going to even care that he literally is stealing the election while it happens.

I disagree, I think Trump’s best bet if he uses that tactic is surprise, ram it though the legislatures before anyone can object and then let those be the facts on the ground.

 

[nakedfrog]

That’s different though, Melania was pregnant at the time so it’s ok.

Naturally!

 

[purbeast0]

If Trump wins again it just shows you how stupid we are as a whole in this country. The pattern I've noticed that is educated people realize how much of a shit stain Trump is and the people that praise him are just uneducated people. And he's clearly taken advantage of those people, and there are A LOT of uneducated/stupid people out there.

The part that I don't understand is how those uneducated people think Trump cares about them or can relate to them. They are the furthest to someone that he can relate to.

I also don't understand the whole concept of "he tells it like it is" when in reality, no, he does not, at all. He just lies and lies and spews non facts. How the hell is that "telling it like it is"?

But again, it just boils down to how stupid/uneducated so many in this country are. I am 100% confident that this election is going to be a record turnout by a huge margin. And one of those new votes will be me as it's the first time I've ever voted and I'm voting solely to vote against that shit bag.

Hell as a government contractor he's actually made me rethink my job too, because I don't really want to be affiliated with his government. It's been weighing on me this past year a bit but with covid and the stability of it, it would be stupid for me to leave. Oh and the pay/benefits are fantastic!

 

[hal2kilo]

Trumpies have started a new attack on Biden with claiming Joe Biden is a home-breaker. Joe took the wife of another man. Broke up that marriage. This is supposedly coming from the x-spouse telling how bad Joe Biden is and how Joe took his wife. The whole time I’m listening to this nonsense I had only one word in mind. Stormy.

So I guess we will just ignore Trump marriage history and other obvious escapades? Oh yea, I forgot we are dealing with a cult, egged on by Fox.

 

[nakedfrog]

If Trump wins again it just shows you how stupid we are as a whole in this country. The pattern I've noticed that is educated people realize how much of a shit stain Trump is and the people that praise him are just uneducated people. And he's clearly taken advantage of those people, and there are A LOT of uneducated/stupid people out there.

The part that I don't understand is how those uneducated people think Trump cares about them or can relate to them. They are the furthest to someone that he can relate to.

I definitely know well-educated people that are Trump supporters
I believe it's mostly the tribal mindset that allows/forces them to overlook his flaws.