News Trump: Mar-a-Lago just raided by FBI

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eelw

Lifer
Dec 4, 1999
10,232
5,348
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Totally agree with your analysis on the documents case, but the January 6th case(s) are much more complicated. We will be damn lucky if the Special Counsel reaches indictment stage on that before the cutoff for the 2024 election. And my gut says he won't split off the documents case and indict on that early.

I'm pissed that the documents case got rolled into this delaying tactic for no reason.
Indeed. Sadly documents will sit idle once investigation is complete and wait for Jan 6. They can’t separate because it just looks worse to put out one charge and then another one several months later.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
Indeed. Sadly documents will sit idle once investigation is complete and wait for Jan 6. They can’t separate because it just looks worse to put out one charge and then another one several months later.
They are entirely separate issues and will be treated separately.
 
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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
4,639
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Surly Charly Brown will get to kick the ball this time!
Ya'll have only been saying that he is going to be indited any day now for two years.
The wheels of Justice move slow, and with enough money and/or influence they stop altogether.
Just ask Ken Paxton.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
Surly Charly Brown will get to kick the ball this time!
Ya'll have only been saying that he is going to be indited any day now for two years.
The wheels of Justice move slow, and with enough money and/or influence they stop altogether.
Just ask Ken Paxton.
I don't think people have been saying he is going to be indicted any day now, just that he would be indicted. I think any reasonably objective person looking at what's going on would come to that conclusion. You don't appoint a special prosecutor unless you think Trump is getting indicted.

Then I assume the argument will shift to 'he will never be convicted'?
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
4,639
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I don't think people have been saying he is going to be indicted any day now, just that he would be indicted. I think any reasonably objective person looking at what's going on would come to that conclusion. You don't appoint a special prosecutor unless you think Trump is getting indicted.

Then I assume the argument will shift to 'he will never be convicted'?

Of Course! Why would they appoint, Muller err, Smith, if they didn't intend to prosecute! Surly this time it will happen.

The 'Indictments coming' thread about the indictment of Trump was started on Apr 28, 2017. People even said, multiple times in that thread, that 'Today is the day!'
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
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Of Course! Why would they appoint, Muller err, Smith, if they didn't intend to prosecute! Surly this time it will happen.

Huh? That doesn't make any sense. When Mueller was appointed Trump was president and therefore immune from indictment. There was some stuff about Trump being impeached due to what would be uncovered but that's not indictment.

I think this shows the real disconnect here though and the source of the wrongheaded 'Trump will never be indicted!' crowd. They looked at Mueller not indicting Trump when he was literally barred by law from doing so, and conclude Smith will not indict Trump when he does not face that constraint.

Believe what you want, but you guys are just building up my reserve of 'I told you so's, haha.

The 'Indictments coming' thread about the indictment of Trump was started on Apr 28, 2017. People even said, multiple times in that thread, that 'Today is the day!'
While I'm not going to read through a 200 page thread it was mostly about indicting Trump's associates like Michael Flynn and Manafort, and they sure got indicted. I did a quick search though and all the 'today is the day' posts I saw were from conservatives making fun of liberals about indictments not happening yet (only for them to happen, lol).
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,442
33,033
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Huh? That doesn't make any sense. When Mueller was appointed Trump was president and therefore immune from indictment. There was some stuff about Trump being impeached due to what would be uncovered but that's not indictment.

I think this shows the real disconnect here though and the source of the wrongheaded 'Trump will never be indicted!' crowd. They looked at Mueller not indicting Trump when he was literally barred by law from doing so, and conclude Smith will not indict Trump when he does not face that constraint.

Believe what you want, but you guys are just building up my reserve of 'I told you so's, haha.


While I'm not going to read through a 200 page thread it was mostly about indicting Trump's associates like Michael Flynn and Manafort, and they sure got indicted. I did a quick search though and all the 'today is the day' posts I saw were from conservatives making fun of liberals about indictments not happening yet (only for them to happen, lol).
The claim that sitting Presidents can't be indicted is just that, a claim. It hasn't been tested in court.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
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The claim that sitting Presidents can't be indicted is just that, a claim. It hasn't been tested in court.
That’s correct, however the executive branch and the special counsel operate under the authority of OLC and the president himself so they are bound by its opinions, or at least Mueller considered himself bound.

Of course it doesn’t take a genius to see the inherent problems in the president deciding that the only people who could indict him (feds) can’t indict him. (States could not imprison the president for supremacy clause issues)
 
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eelw

Lifer
Dec 4, 1999
10,232
5,348
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Yeah Mueller was never going to recommend indicting the current president. But he gave a present with a huge bow tie to congress to impeach. He just never thought one side would be complete chicken shits
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,531
10,966
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Yeah Mueller was never going to recommend indicting the current president. But he gave a present with a huge bow tie to congress to impeach. He just never thought one side would be complete chicken shits

The 10 counts of obstruction could have been advanced at 1201pm on inauguration day when the tenuous OLC opinion was no longer in effect. They weren't. They still haven't been. They never will.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
Yeah Mueller was never going to recommend indicting the current president. But he gave a present with a huge bow tie to congress to impeach. He just never thought one side would be complete chicken shits
I thought Mueller's reasoning was really stupid. Basically he said he couldn't indict Trump (fine). Then the fuckup though - he said that since he couldn't prosecute Trump he also shouldn't conclude Trump committed a crime because then Trump would be accused of a crime without being able to defend himself. (lolwut) As if the president of the United States would somehow lack the means to defend himself.

If Mueller thought Trump committed a crime (and it's evident he thought Trump committed more than one) he should have just said 'under normal conditions I would submit this to a grand jury for indictment but I can't'.
 
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interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,026
2,879
136
Huh? That doesn't make any sense. When Mueller was appointed Trump was president and therefore immune from indictment. There was some stuff about Trump being impeached due to what would be uncovered but that's not indictment.

I think this shows the real disconnect here though and the source of the wrongheaded 'Trump will never be indicted!' crowd. They looked at Mueller not indicting Trump when he was literally barred by law from doing so, and conclude Smith will not indict Trump when he does not face that constraint.

Believe what you want, but you guys are just building up my reserve of 'I told you so's, haha.


While I'm not going to read through a 200 page thread it was mostly about indicting Trump's associates like Michael Flynn and Manafort, and they sure got indicted. I did a quick search though and all the 'today is the day' posts I saw were from conservatives making fun of liberals about indictments not happening yet (only for them to happen, lol).

Straw man fallacy in action.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,859
15,316
136
Mueller was constrained by Rosenstein that was puppeteered by Barr.
I think Mueller did what he could under the circumstances, he also hinted that he was being gagged more than twice.

If you were to point fingers, itd be at Rod for lacking stones and Barr for corruption.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,024
1,131
126
Is there a sizeable group of politically unengaged people that will have their views changed from yes this is politically motivated to no it’s not politically motivated by the appointment of a special counsel?

I guess it’s a low cost gambit to potentially change some minds regardless of how well it works.
The point isn't to convince others, it's to do the job correctly. You have a presidential candidate that's being investigated by the DOJ of his possible opponent, so there's needs to be some separation. In the end they just need to convince a jury, not the public.
 
Jan 25, 2011
17,025
9,476
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Based on the hearing today sounds like Cannons order will be vacated and the special master revoked.

and at the same time…

Supreme court rules Congress gets his taxes. Guess they best move quick.

 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,820
136
Based on the hearing today sounds like Cannons order will be vacated and the special master revoked.

and at the same time…

Supreme court rules Congress gets his taxes. Guess they best move quick.


Next up in the news: Trump mysteriously leaves for a country that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the US. (But not necessarily Russia, that'd be too obvious.)
 

eelw

Lifer
Dec 4, 1999
10,232
5,348
136
My theory is that Trump would flee to whatever country is most likely to indulge his lifestyle, so Saudi Arabia isn't out of the question!
Doubt they’ll offer him anything since he’ll have nothing to offered to them anymore if he’s on the run
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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Based on the hearing today sounds like Cannons order will be vacated and the special master revoked.

and at the same time…

Supreme court rules Congress gets his taxes. Guess they best move quick.

On the tax front, the delaying tactics almost worked. The House changing hands in January would mean they would be dropping the inquiry. An utter abuse of the judicial system.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
Doubt they’ll offer him anything since he’ll have nothing to offered to them anymore if he’s on the run
He would theoretically have a tremendous amount of classified information he could share. That being said he didn’t pay attention to his briefings so who knows what he knows or remembers.

Any country who took him in would face an extremely hostile reaction from the US I imagine as Trump would be Edward Snowden x1000. Maybe if you’re Russia or China you don’t care but I don’t know many other countries who would.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
6,792
1,836
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I love this paragraph+ from today's court session:
'
Trusty argued to the court on Tuesday the search and seizure might have violated the former president’s rights, saying the FBI took golf shirts and Celine Dion pictures from the beach home and resort along with documents marked as classified.


What it means that a special counsel is running the Trump investigations
The judges pushed back against his characterizations.

The problem is you know, the search warrant was for classified documents, and boxes, and other items that are intermingled with that. I don’t think it’s necessarily the fault of the government if someone has intermingled classified documents and all kinds of other personal property,” Pryor told Trusty during the arguments.
'


This is one of many examples where they called out Trump's obvious bullshit. As for Trump fleeing to Saudi; if Saudi didn't honor extradition there would be hell to pay.

 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
4,639
136
This is one of many examples where they called out Trump's obvious bullshit. As for Trump fleeing to Saudi; if Saudi didn't honor extradition there would be hell to pay.
I'm glad that someone is calling out the utter bullshit of Trump's legal arguments. The only reason any court has entertained them at all is because of who he is.
But if you think there would be 'hell to pay' for the Saudis failing to honor extradition you are fooling yourself. The President of the United States is currently arguing that the Crown Prince should be excused for murdering an American Journalist because it would be really inconvenient to do anything about it. America does not care how awful Saudi Arabia is as long as they keep the oil flowing. We are addicted to cheap oil and will do anything to keep from angering our dealer.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
I'm glad that someone is calling out the utter bullshit of Trump's legal arguments. The only reason any court has entertained them at all is because of who he is.
But if you think there would be 'hell to pay' for the Saudis failing to honor extradition you are fooling yourself. The President of the United States is currently arguing that the Crown Prince should be excused for murdering an American Journalist because it would be really inconvenient to do anything about it. America does not care how awful Saudi Arabia is as long as they keep the oil flowing. We are addicted to cheap oil and will do anything to keep from angering our dealer.
I think there is a very large difference between a journalist and the person who knows our nuclear secrets.

If Saudi Arabia chose to house Trump as he fled prosecution here we would destroy them.