And even with that, what are the chances an RB goes say 4 to 5 games without a fumble? IIRC, DeMarco Murray started the season with 4 fumbles in 4 games and then had 1 in the last 12. So, while 5 fumbles per season is about average, he had at least a stretch of 6 games without one. Now, let's look at the NE RB situation: Ridley is out, Gray played 2 games, Vareen splits time with anyone, and Blount came in late in the season and played a total of 5 games, splitting at least one of them with Gray. That, coupled with the coaching staff being very hard on losing the ball (with the exception of Brady), leads to an RB core that doesn't put the ball on the ground a lot. With so many RBs rotating through, is it really that strange that they don't fumble a lot?
And even with that, what are the chances an RB goes say 4 to 5 games without a fumble? IIRC, DeMarco Murray started the season with 4 fumbles in 4 games and then had 1 in the last 12. So, while 5 fumbles per season is about average, he had at least a stretch of 6 games without one. Now, let's look at the NE RB situation: Ridley is out, Gray played 2 games, Vareen splits time with anyone, and Blount came in late in the season and played a total of 5 games, splitting at least one of them with Gray. That, coupled with the coaching staff being very hard on losing the ball (with the exception of Brady), leads to an RB core that doesn't put the ball on the ground a lot. With so many RBs rotating through, is it really that strange that they don't fumble a lot?
The link noted the bag was of a style where each ball would not need to be removed. And the air gushes out of a needle when put in. Enough time to deflate each ball ~ 1 psi? I would guess easily yes but that is a guess. (Still think he was peeing). I don't have a pump gauge accurate enough to determine how much air comes out in, say, 1 second. My WAG is a count of, "one one thousand two" would be ~ 1 PSI. But that is just a guess.
I really, really feel for this dude. He stepped in it no fault of his own. Best wishes to him and his family.
Not possible, the officials mark every ball they inspect before the game with some initials. Still no details from the NFL if the Patriots asked for a 12.5 PSI ball and it was granted, also the Ref's already had instructions to inspect the balls at half-time, it's possible they inflated the Colt's balls to the max@ 13.5 just so they would not fall below the 12.5 threshold during testing. Zero transparency from the league (business as usual) during this whole "investigation".
BoomerD
No Lifer
- Feb 26, 2006
- 66,680
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Gosh...that's right...I guess that should also be used as a defense in things like check forgery cases..."It's unpossible my client forged those checks your honor. Checks have some kind of signature or something."
Ns1
No Lifer
- Jun 17, 2001
- 55,420
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Gosh...that's right...I guess that should also be used as a defense in things like check forgery cases..."It's unpossible my client forged those checks your honor. Checks have some kind of signature or something."
this is turning out to be the greatest conspiracy ever. Pats hire the same guys that put the thermite in the twin towers and line the bathroom with slightly deflated footballs bearing the initials of all the refs. They then pay off the ballboy to hijack the official balls and enter the restroom and then grab the correct set of forged footballs. Then the super secret ninjas come back and remove the legit footballs that are actually inflated to spec.
Belicheat, you are a god.
Another angle?
Bill Belichick isn't a liar, at least not as far as I know. Proof?
He didn't lie or evade responsibility for Spygate. What he did was wrong, he told the truth and was punished, and has moved on.
I don't get why he would lie about the balls when if it was this carefully researched and premeditated they would have a reasonable excuse (worn balls, warm air, big bodies falling on them) that is a "grey area". I don't see why they would need to deflate the balls and then lie about it. That is just dumb. Character counts. Bill doesn't seem to be a liar. Finding grey areas in rules? Certainly. Maybe even going over the grey zone when he thinks others are doing it, too. Does he do so pretty much unabashedly? Absolutely. But giving benefit of the doubt Belichick would be as dumb as a box of rocks to straight up cheat (when not required) and then lie about it.
Bill isn't dumb.
Of course all the complaints directed to the league are equally dumb. NE was playing with out of spec balls. Period. The league has a responsibility to research to maintain the integrity of the game on the field.
Ps. The arguments about wind chill don't apply to the temperature (only speed of change in temp). A google shows 51 degrees at kick off. For heat to be the main culprit they needed some pretty warm air.
Bill Belichick isn't a liar, at least not as far as I know. Proof?
He didn't lie or evade responsibility for Spygate. What he did was wrong, he told the truth and was punished, and has moved on.
I don't get why he would lie about the balls when if it was this carefully researched and premeditated they would have a reasonable excuse (worn balls, warm air, big bodies falling on them) that is a "grey area". I don't see why they would need to deflate the balls and then lie about it. That is just dumb. Character counts. Bill doesn't seem to be a liar. Finding grey areas in rules? Certainly. Maybe even going over the grey zone when he thinks others are doing it, too. Does he do so pretty much unabashedly? Absolutely. But giving benefit of the doubt Belichick would be as dumb as a box of rocks to straight up cheat (when not required) and then lie about it.
Bill isn't dumb.
Of course all the complaints directed to the league are equally dumb. NE was playing with out of spec balls. Period. The league has a responsibility to research to maintain the integrity of the game on the field.
Ps. The arguments about wind chill don't apply to the temperature (only speed of change in temp). A google shows 51 degrees at kick off. For heat to be the main culprit they needed some pretty warm air.
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Gosh...that's right...I guess that should also be used as a defense in things like check forgery cases..."It's unpossible my client forged those checks your honor. Checks have some kind of signature or something."
Meh. he would have to be pretty talented to match the marks (or initials, I'm not sure) exactly as the Ref's. IMHO unless they polygraph that person it will be difficult to prove he did (or didn't) tamper with the balls.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
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I guess I have some sympathy for the Pats.
If they win, the story will be: "Well, of course they cheated somehow."
If they lose, the story will be: "They were too distracted by Deflategate to prepare! waaaaa!" ...or, perhaps more likely "They weren't allowed to cheat this time!"
If they win, the story will be: "Well, of course they cheated somehow."
If they lose, the story will be: "They were too distracted by Deflategate to prepare! waaaaa!" ...or, perhaps more likely "They weren't allowed to cheat this time!"
Patriots blew out the Colts. But they barely eked out the Ravens. They needed the hurry-up offense plus highly questionable substitutions and formations. And if under-inflated balls were to their advantage, then it absolutely made the difference in the game.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
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Nothing questionable and the NFL has stated so.
In regards to the Ravens, this article which debunks NE's lack of fumbles which comes out to only 1.5-2 less than the league avg during the course of a year. It looks like Indy and Baltimore are cheaters too.
Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
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A couple things about this.
He claimed the analysis done by Advanced Football Analytics (vs Sharps) was more "well reasoned" and guess what their conclusion was? That the Pats had the best fumbling rate from 2007 to 2014... and the link above even says that after taking out the QB (Brady), the RBs were 1-2 more better than the entire league per season. While it may not be "extremely abnormal", it's still questionable how they could be the best every year since they were allowed to fiddle with their own footballs? hmm. It's still a tad suspicious.
The quote about the ravens is referring to receptions, i.e. wide receivers. That fumble rate shouldn't be as surprising, because it's a lot easier to fumble right after the catch and getting popped. RBs are what you have to look at since they are securely holding it and usually ready to take the hit.
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Since then there have been other issues with the substitutions taken which I haven't seen the NFL respond to. I posted a link earlier. The formations are legit and the substitutions are valid in regards to the players initially coming on the field and registering eligible or ineligible but Dungy raises concerns that the protocol for successive plays was not followed.
I haven't dug into that part of the rule book so I won't venture a guess if Dungy is right/wrong but it is an issue being raised.
Note I am not anti-Belichick on these exotic formations. I like the change of pace deception.
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
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Jerry Rice says asterisk the Pats if they win the Super Bowl:
Boom.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...-super-bowl-you-have-to-put-an-asterisk-on-it
Boom.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
- 651
- 126
That's completely incorrect. Dungy is an idiot and hater. If you note, he was corrected in that article over another illegal play that he thought NE used against his own Colts.
Patriots receiver-eligibility tactic could catch on
Dungy should retire from being an analyst.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
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And you like to post FUD with nothing to back-up your FUD. Oh, you do know that in the 2nd half when the balls were properly inflated, NE outscored Indy 28-0, right?
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Yes, Jerry "Stickem" Rice knows all about unfair advantages. I wonder if he believes we should put asterisks beside all his Superbowls seeing he admitted to using an illegal substance he knew to be illegal which helped him catch the ball.
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
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Jerry also said that if he had access to today's gloves, he might have triple the catches he had. It's apparent that today's gloves > stickem + old gloves. This doesn't absolve him from gaining an illegal advantage at the time though.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12183975
3:30
Also, it'd be interesting to find out how refs test WR gloves. For example, after Beckham's 2 finger catch, I'd be testing the hell out of that glove. Of course, it doesn't behoove the NFL to do such testing because more offense = a better product. Just like deflated balls would = a better product. I bet the NFL is just as lax for glove testing.
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Probably already posted, but for those who think they can use mere calculations to determine a ball won't lose pressure, you're wrong.
Headsmart Labs, associated with Carnegie Mellon, did an actual scientific experiment.
Balls lost average of 1.8lbs in a 50 degree environment, after being inflated in a 75 degree room.
Cliffs:
New NFL balls.
Inflated in a 75 degree room.
Wet and toweled off to simulate rain.
Put in 50 degree room.
Lost from 1.5 to 1.95 lbs of pressure. Average 1.8 psi loss.
Note: Wet leather expands....which reduces the pressure also. This is not accounted for in anyone's calculations, that's probably why they're all wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxsXFX3tDpg
Headsmart Labs, associated with Carnegie Mellon, did an actual scientific experiment.
Balls lost average of 1.8lbs in a 50 degree environment, after being inflated in a 75 degree room.
Cliffs:
New NFL balls.
Inflated in a 75 degree room.
Wet and toweled off to simulate rain.
Put in 50 degree room.
Lost from 1.5 to 1.95 lbs of pressure. Average 1.8 psi loss.
Note: Wet leather expands....which reduces the pressure also. This is not accounted for in anyone's calculations, that's probably why they're all wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxsXFX3tDpg
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
Welcome to 3 days ago. That still doesn't explain how how the Colts were still in spec and the Pats weren't. 13.5 - 1.8 = less than 12.5, for the millionth time. Unless Indy's balls were kept in heated box with blankets on the sidelines, or they severely overinflated their balls at the start of the game, or the refs didn't measure right. This is why there's a major investigation.
waggy
No Lifer
- Dec 14, 2000
- 68,143
- 10
- 81
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