Today Britain votes on remaining part of the EU

[Svnla]

PM Cameron is resigning because of the exit vote - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/english-voters-choose-brexit--cameron-steps-down-091744242.html

 

[norseamd]

You say "isolationist", someone else might say "sovereign".....

Image only posts are not allowed in P&N.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[LegendKiller]

Hmm, yes, why is it that media outlets showed polls that didn't reflect the actual preference of the voting public?

Maybe to create and maintain the illusion that leaving the EU was less popular than it actually was. After all, why bother voting to leave if most of the media outlets and pundits are telling you that the "leave" voters are the minority?

Media credibility seems to be taking a beating all over.

In hindsight they ignored the single biggest tell. The volume of small bets favored leave. However, bookie odds were towards remain. Why? Because bookies don't set odds on the number of bets. They set odds on the dollar amount at risk and bigger dollars were towards remain. The .01% ignored the people again and lost.

 

[LegendKiller]

I don't think you understand what he means. They are free to come and go as they choose, but choices have consequences.

The UK has advantageous trade terms, regulatory terms, etc with the EU. This is because they were part of the EU. Now that they aren't, all of those things are going to have to be renegotiated. The EU is probably going to make the UK feel the pain because they don't want other countries thinking they can get all the benefits of being in the EU without any of the costs.

It's hard to see how anyone would think that the EU should treat nonmembers the same as members. Why would anyone join then?

I depends on how important they are on a monitary basis. The EU isn't going to shoot themselves in the dick economically either. Otherwise member countries will see how inept they continue to be and will leave.

It isn't like the EU makes shit that the UK can't et anywhere else.

And regulations? Lol - ever work for a European bank?

 

[Phynaz]

Good on Britain. At least one country is taking back control of its borders.

You can't be a sovereign nation without control of your border.

 

[fskimospy]

I depends on how important they are on a monitary basis. The EU isn't going to shoot themselves in the dick economically either. Otherwise member countries will see how inept they continue to be and will leave.

It isn't like the EU makes shit that the UK can't et anywhere else.

The ECB is already talking about moving Euro trading out of London. The idea that the EU should give the UK few or no consequences for not being a member so as not to encourage other people to leave is irrational. That would absolutely encourage other people to leave as it would create an insurmountable free rider problem.

And regulations? Lol - ever work for a European bank?

Yes I'm sure UK bank stocks are tanking because they will thrive without those EU financial regulations and why these same banks were already saying they may exit employees en masse to Europe and Scotland (in anticipation of Scotland potentially seceding from the UK over this).

I don't think anyone has a great handle on how this will shake out, but it seems highly likely that UK banks aren't net winners here. In the end this was likely a stupid move on the UK's part, but that's their dumb move to make!

 

[LegendKiller]

The ECB is already talking about moving Euro trading out of London. The idea that the EU should give the UK few or no consequences for not being a member so as not to encourage other people to leave is irrational. That would absolutely encourage other people to leave as it would create an insurmountable free rider problem.



Yes I'm sure UK bank stocks are tanking because they will thrive without those EU financial regulations and why these same banks were already saying they may exit employees en masse to Europe and Scotland (in anticipation of Scotland potentially seceding from the UK over this).

I don't think anyone has a great handle on how this will shake out, but it seems highly likely that UK banks aren't net winners here. In the end this was likely a stupid move on the UK's part, but that's their dumb move to make!

I agree that there will be consequences, I don't think they will be as severe or as long lasting as some believe. Mainly because they are Co dependent snd treating them too harshly will hurt the EU in kind.

Scotland has its own issues. They have to bifurcate their entire country. Let's just start at the military, then go to nhs, then go to mi5/6...etc. the notion that they will scotexit and be anything but a basket case for a long while underestimates the risks.

All euro banks are getting hammered. Not just UK ones. DB is down 15%. Socgen down 20. Credit ag down 12. Credit suisse down 13. HSBC is down 6. Barclay's 16.

Depends, could be stupid. But regardless of what the UK did, long term without massive reforms, the euro is toast and the EU also. This should be a huge wakeup call to Angela. Her system sucks.

 

[Sonikku]

This seems like a really big deal, but a glance at cbs news and other sites sees it pegged about halfway down the page until you find a story on it. They're all still going on about Trump.

 

[LegendKiller]

This seems like a really big deal, but a glance at cbs news and other sites sees it pegged about halfway down the page until you find a story on it. They're all still going on about Trump.

Because they see what happens when the proles become unruly and want to head that off now.

 

[CaptainGoodnight]

I keep see the comment online that goes something like this: "Sure EU has problems, it is why the UK should have voted Remain, to stay and fix the problems".

The problem is this whole thing shows a disconnect between the people and their leaders. UK leadership is unwilling to fix the EU. (and much of the other EU member's leaders.)

The other problem is that, there is no mechanism for EU citizens to directly redress grievances to the EU. That is why the EU is not a democracy. EU good in concept, horrible in execution.

 

[dainthomas]

Because they see what happens when the proles become unruly and want to head that off now.

Sad to say, it's probably somewhat this.

For me, it's actually refreshing to see that the people still have some power over the oligarchs.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

This seems like a really big deal, but a glance at cbs news and other sites sees it pegged about halfway down the page until you find a story on it. They're all still going on about Trump.

Check the financial sites.

 

[LegendKiller]

I keep see the comment online that goes something like this: "Sure EU has problems, they is why the UK should have voted Remain, to stay and fix the problems".

The problem is this whole thing shows a disconnect between the people and their leaders. UK leadership is unwilling to fix the EU. (and much of the other EU member's leaders.)

The other problem is that, there is no mechanism for EU citizens to directly redress grievances to the EU. That is why the EU is not a democracy. EU good in concept, horrible in execution.

This. The EU was never intended to represent the people. It was a bureaucratic overlay to subvert the will of the people in the name of eliminating nationalities and frictions with the goal of competing with self determined countries (us) or demand economies (china/russia). At the front was germany, who stood to gain the most, being a net exporter, since the Deutsche mark would be valued higher than the euro, putting German goods within reach of peripheral states. The peripherals were brought in to keep the German centric scheme going with germany using financial Armageddon to force compliance and give up more sovereignty. The screws would keep tightening until they were all germany's bitches.

Had there been a monetary, a true representative political union, and a fiscal union, it would be different.

Ask your average German what they think about Greeks retiring much earlier than them. But they are willing to put up with it because they know that Greece is their bitch.

 

[AtenRa]

I don't think you understand what he means. They are free to come and go as they choose, but choices have consequences.

The UK has advantageous trade terms, regulatory terms, etc with the EU. This is because they were part of the EU. Now that they aren't, all of those things are going to have to be renegotiated. The EU is probably going to make the UK feel the pain because they don't want other countries thinking they can get all the benefits of being in the EU without any of the costs.

It's hard to see how anyone would think that the EU should treat nonmembers the same as members. Why would anyone join then?

Im not talking about the rights EU members have between them, certainly if UK chose to leave the EU they will not have the same privileges EU members have.
But I dont want and EU shouldn't make UK a paradigm for the others by make them feel the pain and such things. I dont want EU operate as an hegemony and punish whoever doesnt want to oblige with its rules and guidelines.
UK is a European Country, EU can negotiate with an old friend on a friendly manner new Trade and Boarder agreements. No need to punish UK because they wanted out, that is what im saying.

And I sure hope EU members will start to discuss WHY UK left the EU, so we can learn a few things from it that will benefit EU in the near future of becoming a better place for its Members.

 

[sontakke]

Hmm, yes, why is it that media outlets showed polls that didn't reflect the actual preference of the voting public?

Maybe to create and maintain the illusion that leaving the EU was less popular than it actually was. After all, why bother voting to leave if most of the media outlets and pundits are telling you that the "leave" voters are the minority?

Media credibility seems to be taking a beating all over.

I believe that some of the voting public was ashamed of showing their actual preference to the poll takers. These type of behavior is not uncommon at all. That is lot more plausible than the media conspiracy that you are alluding to.

We also have some of the spectacular failures of polling here in USA too; for example recent Michigan primary.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I think us American's have to think of it like we form a union with Canada, Mexico, England and some other small places. We still elect Senators & Presidents but some of their decisions can be over ruled by some dough bag committee in Calgary.

I'm not an EU expert so correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

Im not talking about the rights EU members have between them, certainly if UK chose to leave the EU they will not have the same privileges EU members have.
But I dont want and EU shouldn't make UK a paradigm for the others by make them feel the pain and such things. I dont want EU operate as an hegemony and punish whoever doesnt want to oblige with its rules and guidelines.
UK is a European Country, EU can negotiate with an old friend on a friendly manner new Trade and Boarder agreements. No need to punish UK because they wanted out, that is what im saying.

And I sure hope EU members will start to discuss WHY UK left the EU, so we can learn a few things from it that will benefit EU in the near future of becoming a better place for its Members.

Quitting the club, then expecting better treatment from it, isn't how the whole in-the-club/out-of-the-club dynamic works.

 

[AtenRa]

The idea that the EU should give the UK few or no consequences for not being a member so as not to encourage other people to leave is irrational. That would absolutely encourage other people to leave as it would create an insurmountable free rider problem.

Here is the problem,

EU should FIRST ask WHY UK left the EU zone in the first place and not thinking on how to make UK punish for leaving. EU should rethink its course and mistakes it made the last 3-5 years and begin to make things better for its Member states.
Punish UK for leaving in order to keep the rest of the members in the EU community is the worst thing that can happen in the EU.
We want a EU that its members want to stay with there own will because they like it and because it is better for them to be within the EU than outside.

 

[Jaskalas]

Let me sum this up for you gents.

...Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government

Secession is an inherent right of any legitimate democratic body or union.
As Americans, I would expect us to all appreciate how the UK people feel about being marginalized by a distant ruling elite. And I expect us to support our closest ally in keeping and maintaining a strong, healthy future.

 

[fskimospy]

Here is the problem,

EU should FIRST ask WHY UK left the EU zone in the first place and not thinking on how to make UK punish for leaving. EU should rethink its course and mistakes it made the last 3-5 years and begin to make things better for its Member states.
Punish UK for leaving in order to keep the rest of the members in the EU community is the worst thing that can happen in the EU.
We want a EU that its members want to stay with there own will because they like it and because it is better for them to be within the EU than outside.

The EU SHOULD reconsider its policies, I agree! The Euro in particular was a bad idea.

That being said, the way you make your members enjoy staying is to offer them benefits they can't get otherwise. If you give those same benefits to nonmembers then you have just obviated your reason for being.

 

[hal2kilo]

I think us American's have to think of it like we form a union with Canada, Mexico, England and some other small places. We still elect Senators & Presidents but some of their decisions can be over ruled by some dough bag committee in Calgary.

I'm not an EU expert so correct me if I'm wrong.

Sounds like our existing trade agreements.

 

[AtenRa]

Quitting the club, then expecting better treatment from it, isn't how the whole in-the-club/out-of-the-club dynamic works.

Perhaps i wasnt clear enough,

I dont want a better treatment for the UK now they have left EU, i just dont want EU treat them like a hegemony and punish them with unfair Trade/Boarder treaties just to make UK an example for the rest of the EU countries.

When that happens then EU immediately becomes a Hegemony over everyone in the European Continent.

THAT IS NOT WHAT Europeans want. That is not what UK wanted when they joined EU in the first place among other things.

 

[Brainonska511]

We also have some of the spectacular failures of polling here in USA too; for example recent Michigan primary.

As the old saying goes, "garbage in, garbage out." Michigan was a polling failure, but overall, the polls have been fairly accurate.

 

[fskimospy]

As the old saying goes, "garbage in, garbage out." Michigan was a polling failure, but overall, the polls have been fairly accurate.

The polling for Brexit wasn't really a failure either. Polling averages had remain up by like 0.5%. Sure it ended up losing by 4%, but the polls were pretty clear that this result was reasonably likely.

 

[mxnerd]

CNN reports that there are over 1 million U.S. workers in U.K.

Since British pound just drop 10%, their salaries were basically being slashed by that amount.