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Today Britain votes on remaining part of the EU

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LegendKiller said:
In hindsight they ignored the single biggest tell. The volume of small bets favored leave. However, bookie odds were towards remain. Why? Because bookies don't set odds on the number of bets. They set odds on the dollar amount at risk and bigger dollars were towards remain. The .01% ignored the people again and lost.
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Yep, I remember reading last week that the odds were (roughly) 75% stay vs 25% leave, even though the actual bets (by volume) were 75% leave vs 25% stay. The difference was that the average "leave" bet was tiny, while the average "stay" bet was 5x times as big. In other words, the big bucks supporting "stay" apparently distorted the betting market significantly and apparently took a bath because of this vote.

I don't have a strong preference either way on this issue, but it's been a fascinating process to watch unfold. I'm still amazed "leave" managed to beat the big money, the big politicos and the big media. Whether (and how) it will hurt the UK in the end remains to be seen, nobody really knows how all this will play out.
 
fskimospy said:
The polling for Brexit wasn't really a failure either. Polling averages had remain up by like 0.5%. Sure it ended up losing by 4%, but the polls were pretty clear that this result was reasonably likely.
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I agree. The polling was very close for the Brexit vote and that the current outcome was plausible. I'm just pointing out that the "spectacular failures" like Michigan are more due to having poor inputs than it being a true upset.
 
mxnerd said:
CNN reports that there are over 1 million U.S. workers in U.K.

Since British pound just drop 10%, their salaries were basically being slashed by that amount.
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Not a good analysis. That assumes that everything they do with their wages incorporates buying usd dominated (or imported) goods. Inflation may increase but not by 10%
 
LegendKiller said:
Not a good analysis. That assumes that everything they do with their wages incorporates buying usd dominated (or imported) goods. Inflation may increase but not by 10%
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I know. Just assuming if that every dollar they earn was sent back to U.S.
 
Jaskalas said:
Let me sum this up for you gents.



Secession is an inherent right of any legitimate democratic body or union.
As Americans, I would expect us to all appreciate how the UK people feel about being marginalized by a distant ruling elite. And I expect us to support our closest ally in keeping and maintaining a strong, healthy future.
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Healthy future. LOL say all the red markets. At best this flash of independence was an act of self-immolation.
 
How likely is it any of the people calling for referendums in other countries will be successful? Hearing stuff about France, the Netherlands, even Sweden....
 
fskimospy said:
The EU SHOULD reconsider its policies, I agree! The Euro in particular was a bad idea.

That being said, the way you make your members enjoy staying is to offer them benefits they can't get otherwise. If you give those same benefits to nonmembers then you have just obviated your reason for being.
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Which is very true.
 
Exit vote because of too much immigrants/foreigners?

This influx of immigrants led to a major spike in anti-immigrant sentiment — today, 77 percent of Brits today believe that immigration levels should be reduced.


The vote, then, was a large degree a referendum on immigration. British voters just told us, in no uncertain terms, that they were willing to risk a serious recession in order to keep foreigners out of their country.
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http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12012962/brexit-eu-referendum-time-polls-close-chart

.
 
LegendKiller said:
To attribute anything to this right now would be incorrect. Let the dust settle first.
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I'm not understanding the benefits here. More expensive markets, fewer job opportunities abroad, financial markets may exit, migrant work force vanishes, and Britain will have a harder time competing for European business.

Strangely enough, they effectively manipulated their currency and made investing in Britain more lucrative in the short term. Don't know if that will pan out to any net gain, unlikely.
 
LegendKiller said:
? You think the upheaval is due to some fundamental shift in economics from real changes, or do you think this is due to higher risk premia? Do you know how much is attributable to capital flight?
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All the markets assumed a "remain" vote up until yesterday. The correction after "leave" unexpectedly won out is clear.

This was an obviously stupid move for Britain economically.
 
Subyman said:
I'm not understanding the benefits here. More expensive markets, fewer job opportunities abroad, financial markets may exit, migrant work force vanishes, and Britain will have a harder time competing for European business.

Strangely enough, they effectively manipulated their currency and made investing in Britain more lucrative in the short term. Don't know if that will pan out to any net gain, unlikely.
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I have been reading sellside research for the last 4 hours and there are some negatives, such as office space, jobs...etc, but I think some of that is overblown.

Free flow of employees is a plus but isn't going to 100% go away. The global labor pool moves around, especially at the top end.

Migrant work force also introduces budgetary problems and domestic wage suppression. Since you don't have a fiscal or political union and no real economic aggregation, those effects are multiplied to the negative.
 
Gonad the Barbarian said:
All the markets assumed a "remain" vote up until yesterday. The correction after "leave" unexpectedly won out is clear.

This was an obviously stupid move for Britain economically.
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The unexpected increases risk, risk increases capital flows, capital flows reprices relative valuations.

The single biggest risk is that this results in contagion. As soon as that settles I believe the net benefits are not that huge. They could be much larger but that is uncertain. We simply have no data to work off of.
 
Subyman said:
That's why most are so surprised. Emotional voting that hurts yourself. It shows how powerful xenophobia is in today's world.
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As opposed to emotionless handing control of your country to a group of people you don't know, didn't elect, aren't answerable to you, have no financial or political links to you, and could be completely fucking you because you have no control over them.

Yes, handing sovereignty over is an emotional event. One that the .01% thought they could force away.
 
LegendKiller said:
? You think the upheaval is due to some fundamental shift in economics from real changes, or do you think this is due to higher risk premia? Do you know how much is attributable to capital flight?
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The risk was that GB might leave the EU. That risk is now realized. GB was the financial hub of the EU, firms had already been leaving London for continental Europe on the potential that GB might leave. They will leave much more quickly now. But that's okay because those financial services workers in Britain can work anywhere in the... oh wait...

They just shot themselves in the dick with a bazooka.
 
LegendKiller said:
The unexpected increases risk, risk increases capital flows, capital flows reprices relative valuations.

The single biggest risk is that this results in contagion. As soon as that settles I believe the net benefits are not that huge. They could be much larger but that is uncertain. We simply have no data to work off of.
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Contagion, as in other nations exiting the EU?
 
Blackjack200 said:
The risk was that GB might leave the EU. That risk is now realized. GB was the financial hub of the EU, firms had already been leaving London for continental Europe on the potential that GB might leave. They will leave much more quickly now. But that's okay because those financial services workers in Britain can work anywhere in the... oh wait...

They just shot themselves in the dick with a bazooka.
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I wonder how many of those boomers that voted "leave" yesterday are checking their retirement accounts this morning and going "oh shit bullocks."
 
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