The Tesla 3 will probably be a bust

[tortillasoup]

I think the biggest problem with this car is tesla can't turn a profit selling a $90k car. How are they going to make a profit selling a car with similar construction and materials for less than half the cost?

I realize the Model 3 is smaller and not as fancy but even then...

Tesla profits massively on each car. If they stopped doing infrastructure investment and R&D for the Model 3, they'd be a profitable company.

 

[Midwayman]

I think the biggest problem with this car is tesla can't turn a profit selling a $90k car. How are they going to make a profit selling a car with similar construction and materials for less than half the cost?

I realize the Model 3 is smaller and not as fancy but even then...

Scale and the fact that most of them will probably end up closer to 50-60k after options.

 

[WackyDan]

I think the biggest problem with this car is tesla can't turn a profit selling a $90k car. How are they going to make a profit selling a car with similar construction and materials for less than half the cost?

I realize the Model 3 is smaller and not as fancy but even then...

Economies of SCALE is the first reason.

Next reason? Have you gone out to Tesla's site to build a model S? The up sells are where they are going to make incremental $$$ and they are adding more "options" to the family. Options are knobs and dials... They are firmware enabled range, charging, etc.

 

[boomhower]

Is this thing Civic or Accord size?

 

[WackyDan]

Is this thing Civic or Accord size?

Accord sized. It is what used to be Mid-sized by us standards before mid-sized got bigger. Think 2005 malibu or BMW 3 series.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Sorry to dig up a thread. Recently cancelled my reservation for a Model 3.

No supercharger support on the base model, have to pay an unknown amount for it (probably to the tune of $5000 or so). Auto-pilot not standard equipment ($3,000). 1st models will likely have huge issues like their predecessors. The price will more than likely raise before delivery, as they've done previously model as well. Expected to rip up tires like the Model S, so all the money you save on oil changes are replaced by tires every 15k miles. You just get nickle and dimed for ownership.

I recently test drove an S and an X, and was supremely disappointed. Aside from the blistering off the line acceleration, everything else felt lack luster for the cost. Interior materials felt junk, the touch screen has horrible calibration/feedback to touch input. The road noise was astoundingly bad, I heard everything, this was probably because of the tires but was hard to carry a conversation over the road/wind noise. And my test drive car had the instrument panel die while merging onto the highway. Not a huge deal, but concerning nonetheless.

Count me out. I like what Tesla has done to stimulate the market towards EV's but IMO they are producing a sub-standard product and charging an arm and a leg for it.

 

[z1ggy]

The only thing that will ever stop Tesla is if the company runs out of lenders. Apparently they are getting low on cash. Kiiiiiind of expect that with a brand new company doing heavy R&D, so hopefully they can reign in costs as time goes on.

 

[JulesMaximus]

I have seen a few model X on the road around here. The Model S is freaking everywhere.

Snapped a pic of one a couple weeks ago.

 

[Subyman]

I hate that huge screen. I understand they need a screen for all the functions of the car, but I'd much rather have a smaller screen and real buttons for common functions like climate, radio, traction, etc. It's probably the most hideous modern dash I've seen in a car.

 

[NutBucket]

I recently test drove an S and an X, and was supremely disappointed. Aside from the blistering off the line acceleration, everything else felt lack luster for the cost. Interior materials felt junk, the touch screen has horrible calibration/feedback to touch input. The road noise was astoundingly bad, I heard everything, this was probably because of the tires but was hard to carry a conversation over the road/wind noise. And my test drive car had the instrument panel die while merging onto the highway. Not a huge deal, but concerning nonetheless.

Count me out. I like what Tesla has done to stimulate the market towards EV's but IMO they are producing a sub-standard product and charging an arm and a leg for it.

This sounds about right...and kinda what I figured. I was stopped next to a Model X in traffic yesterday and the poor alignment of the panels and inconsistent gaps were glaringly obvious. It would be unacceptable on a Civic that's 75% cheaper yet it's OK because it's a Tesla?

I've not sat in a Tesla but the interior looks completely underwhelming too.

So, kudos to Tesla on excellent marketing. If any mainline automaker released this car they'd be lambasted by the press IMHO.

 

[JulesMaximus]

This sounds about right...and kinda what I figured. I was stopped next to a Model X in traffic yesterday and the poor alignment of the panels and inconsistent gaps were glaringly obvious. It would be unacceptable on a Civic that's 75% cheaper yet it's OK because it's a Tesla?

I've not sat in a Tesla but the interior looks completely underwhelming too.

So, kudos to Tesla on excellent marketing. If any mainline automaker released this car they'd be lambasted by the press IMHO.

The press has been pretty glowing about Tesla actually... at least at first. Seems now there are some issues that have cropped up. They seem to hold their value well though and I see a crap load of them on the roads around here.

I sat in a model S last year and was mildly impressed by it. I haven't driven one though.

 

[NutBucket]

I can get a (much) nicer interior in a Volvo XC90 and save lots of dough. Heck, I'd say your average Cadillac/Lincoln interior is nicer.

 

[z1ggy]

I can get a (much) nicer interior in a Volvo XC90 and save lots of dough. Heck, I'd say your average Cadillac/Lincoln interior is nicer.

What's the Cost of Ownership like though? Other than the battery sh!tting the bed in a Tesla, there aren't a ton of moving parts that can break. Everything else like tires, electrical, etc is comparable.

 

[NutBucket]

I could also buy a 1990 Corolla (assuming you could buy a new one today). TCO would be much lower considering insurance and initial cost. Things are built like tanks.

And, by that same measure a Chevy Bolt/Nissan Leaf would be a much better buy if you're talking about cost. Plus, they have better build quality.

The point is, those who can afford a Model S/X don't care about cost of ownership. It's a status symbol to 90% of buyers, period.

 

[monkeydelmagico]

Count me out. I like what Tesla has done to stimulate the market towards EV's but IMO they are producing a sub-standard product and charging an arm and a leg for it.

I like their disruptive tesla mojo as well. I think it spurred GM to bring the bolt to market sooner. Choices and competition are good for us consumers.

 

[z1ggy]

I could also buy a 1990 Corolla (assuming you could buy a new one today). TCO would be much lower considering insurance and initial cost. Things are built like tanks.

And, by that same measure a Chevy Bolt/Nissan Leaf would be a much better buy if you're talking about cost. Plus, they have better build quality.

The point is, those who can afford a Model S/X don't care about cost of ownership. It's a status symbol to 90% of buyers, period.

Obviously buying a beater will have lower TCO, no offense but I don't see how that's really applicable.

I'll refer you to the table here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-comparison-and-total-cost-of-ownership.8498/ for a direct comparison of a Model X TCO and an XC90 TCO.

Ignore that persons colum called TCO. Just look at the "total" column next to it, which is the actual cost to own the car including payments, etc. I honestly can't tell what math is going on in the excel workbook but I assume they are smart enough to factor in loan interest the same across all vehicles, etc. As you can see, the "total" column for the model X is $112k over 5 years, and the XC90 is $120k.

So.... Are you really saving money here ?? Looks like no. Obviously, that table depends on his assumptions for repair costs, but as long as they are applied the same way across the whole spectrum, it doesn't really matter.

 

[NutBucket]

What about my point about those that actually care about the benefits of having an electric car as opposed to a status symbol?

And, while the XC is more expensive to own it is better built, more comfortable and a more practical vehicle. Again, $8k over 5 years to the average XC90 or Tesla owner is pocket change. That's also part of my point.

 

[z1ggy]

What about my point about those that actually care about the benefits of having an electric car as opposed to a status symbol?

And, while the XC is more expensive to own it is better built, more comfortable and a more practical vehicle. Again, $8k over 5 years to the average XC90 or Tesla owner is pocket change. That's also part of my point.

I can get a (much) nicer interior in a Volvo XC90 and save lots of dough. Heck, I'd say your average Cadillac/Lincoln interior is nicer.

Your post above said you'd be saving money and getting a nicer interior, which I thought was your point? I'm just saying that you're not actually saving money (most likely). That's all. If somebody wants a nice interior AND to save money, they wouldn't go buy a poopie looking 1990 Civic.

So overall my point is, you get one or the other in your example, not both.

Honest question: Are Tesla's needing lots of repairs? I mean... other than a lack luster interior, how could one say car A or car B is "better built", other than seeing cost of repairs over a length of time?

 

[NutBucket]

Better built to me also means fit & finish which is sorely lacking on Teslas. From what little I've read there are non-trivial number of electronic issues but I'm not really familiar with those.

 

[agent00f]

Obviously buying a beater will have lower TCO, no offense but I don't see how that's really applicable.

I'll refer you to the table here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-comparison-and-total-cost-of-ownership.8498/ for a direct comparison of a Model X TCO and an XC90 TCO.

Ignore that persons colum called TCO. Just look at the "total" column next to it, which is the actual cost to own the car including payments, etc. I honestly can't tell what math is going on in the excel workbook but I assume they are smart enough to factor in loan interest the same across all vehicles, etc. As you can see, the "total" column for the model X is $112k over 5 years, and the XC90 is $120k.

So.... Are you really saving money here ?? Looks like no. Obviously, that table depends on his assumptions for repair costs, but as long as they are applied the same way across the whole spectrum, it doesn't really matter.

That's a very optimistic estimate for upkeep when there are many S owners who've been in numerous times for key component replacement, though at the great expense of Tesla; certainly enough to tank their CR rating. Also assumes no battery replacement or even wear. I would expect no less from the tesla fan club.

 

[Accord99]

I'll refer you to the table here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-comparison-and-total-cost-of-ownership.8498/ for a direct comparison of a Model X TCO and an XC90 TCO.

That estimate was made in the middle of 2012.

Plus the estimate of fuel costs after 5 years is wrong, ~75K miles is going to be more like $12K for the gas powered vehicles. Depreciation on the Model X is also hilariously low at ~16% after 5 years. Maintenance costs is also way too low on the Model X and high on the other vehicles.

 

[ultimatebob]

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that the Model 3 that customers actually BUY isn't going to be $35,000. Once they load it up with the options that people actually want like Supercharger support and Autopilot, it's going to still be a $50,000 car.

I think that we probably still have a better chance of getting a truly affordable electric car with decent range from Chevy or Nissan first.

 

[Brovane]

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that the Model 3 that customers actually BUY isn't going to be $35,000. Once they load it up with the options that people actually want like Supercharger support and Autopilot, it's going to still be a $50,000 car.

I think that we probably still have a better chance of getting a truly affordable electric car with decent range from Chevy or Nissan first.

So you are complaining about options that Tesla offers that Chevy and Nissan don't offer that would increase the price? Basically Tesla, Chevy and Nissan are all going to offer EV cars that are roughly comparable as a base model, IE 200+ Mile range car at around a $35k-$40k price range. What Tesla is going to offer is more options, IE Dual motors, Supercharger, AutoPilot, bigger battery etc. that would boost the price closer to $50k but then the Model 3 at that point would be clearly superior vehicle. Obviously a Model 3 with dual motors, Supercharger access, 250+ Mile range, AutoPilot etc. is going clearly a step above a base Bolt or a 2017 Leaf etc.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

You're probably closer to 70k, maybe even 80 with all the bells and whistles on a Model 3. Tesla options are not cheap.

Go build a base Model S, then full equip it. It's near double the price.

 

[NutBucket]

The point is this still isn't a car for commoners. A base model Chevy or Nissan will offer you more for comparable money, period.