The Peyton Manning Release Watch

[IndyColtsFan]

I don't mean being in the game, I mean when the deadline on the roster bonus hits. That's when Irsay has to decide if he's healthy, and I don't think he'll be cleared to play a game then.

But that's what I'm saying. My understanding is that he is having an examination in early March and the doctors will give thumbs up/down on him coming back to play.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Wow....that is pretty optimistic... I would say 3 years tops, but only because if he does come back, everyone is gonna be looking to sack the hell out of him. It's going to suck if he ends up going somewhere with a bad o line.

It is optimistic, but that estimate assumes he'd be 90-100% healthy. I am not sure if that will happen or not. I personally think he will play another 3 or 4 years if he is cleared.

 

[JTsyo]

Would be interesting if Andrew Luck ends up being trash in the big leagues...

Did/Will the Colts draft him?

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Did/Will the Colts draft him?

Yes, the Colts plan on drafting him. Or more specifically, a QB which we can assume will either be him or Griffin.

 

[spidey07]

Irsay has repeatedly said that if Peyton is healthy, he'll be a Colt. I will hold him to his word.

Even recently? I'll believe him. If he keeps saying that and let's him go it will completely turn the city against him.

 

[waggy]

If I'm Jim Irsay, I have to let him go. His options are as follows, and none of them look any good:

1) Keep Manning, take Luck. The team is old and, Manning or no Manning, needs to be completely rebuilt in order to compete. If they are going to compete now, they need a combination of high draft picks and salary cap space. This scenario ruins both, as they will be spend a huge chunk of their cap space on two players, only one of whom will ever play at a time. They will also be denied the windfall of picks they could get by trading down in the draft.

2) Keep Manning, trade pick. Retool the team with a bunch of high value players, get rid of Mathis and Wayne, and hope that you can make a run in two years. There's a chance this might work, but it will be just as Manning retires and after he leaves, they now have to find another franchise QB (who likely won't be as highly thought of as Luck is).

3) Dump Manning, take Luck. This makes the most sense to me. Start all over again, take the slow road to recovery, and hope that by drafting right you can compete again in three years with a totally new team. There will almost certainly be a return game where Manning thrashes them and everyone will talk about how much Irsay disrespected him (see: Bledsoe to Buffalo), but it's the right call in the long run.

issue i see is you know what you got in manning. Luck may be a great QB in college but that means nothing in the NFL. wouldn't be teh first time a 1st round QB was a bust.

i suspect they will go with luck. he is younger and healthy and they can trade manning for other stuff they need (not to mention less pay).

 

[bignateyk]

I hope they release him and Luck turns out to be a bust.

 

[Gibson486]

issue i see is you know what you got in manning. Luck may be a great QB in college but that means nothing in the NFL. wouldn't be teh first time a 1st round QB was a bust.

i suspect they will go with luck. he is younger and healthy and they can trade manning for other stuff they need (not to mention less pay).

If they trade manning, they will lose ALOT and not even get anything close in return. They way his contract is structured, they are screwed if they do not release him on time.

 

[spacejamz]

But that's what I'm saying. My understanding is that he is having an examination in early March and the doctors will give thumbs up/down on him coming back to play.

Looks like Irsay will need to decide by March 8th...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...paying-peyton-26-million-for-nothing/related/

Regardless, the Irsay Twitter page likely will become more interesting before it gets any less interesting between now and March 8, the date on which another $28 million will be paid to Peyton Manning.

 

[mvbighead]

Yes, the Colts plan on drafting him. Or more specifically, a QB which we can assume will either be him or Griffin.

This could also be spin to drive up the cost of the pick. I know they've said it, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a slam dunk.

In any case, 28 million to Peyton + roughly 25 over 4 or so for Luck. While Irsay's pockets are deep, I dunno if they're deep enough to do this. From what I've read, if the Colts sign PM, they're "stuck" with him for at least 3 years due to the cap issues created by Polian.

Also, if Luck is the greatest thing since sliced bread, there is no way you sit him (Or Manning in favor of Luck) for up to three seasons. One way or the other, they have to choose one.

As to those saying they must rebuild if they keep Manning and plan on a run in 2-3 seasons... you do realize they've been just as pathetic on other areas of the team when Manning was playing. IE - If Manning is healthy and if he remains a Colt, their win/loss percentages change drastically.

To me, they have to make a choice. Keep Manning and make it the story book ending that it should be. Or release Manning and start retooling.

If they keep Manning, they should pass on Luck and trade the pick. Perhaps bring in Blackmon after trading down to replace Wayne. Take a promising young QB around 2-4 rounds and hope that he's ready when Manning hangs them up.

I can see them going either way, but I really can't see him putting that much money on two players that cannot both be starting every week.

Personally, I'd like to see Manning come back healthy, and they trade the pick for 3 or so prime picks (rounds 1-3 or 4). Bring in help everywhere you need it.

If he's still questionable, you have to cut him and take Luck.

 

[vi edit]

I say they work something out where they pay him half the roster bonus as some form of a release/retirement/severance package, have him retire a Colt and agree he won't sign with anyone else. Take the other half and contribute it to a charity of Peyton's choice.

He retires a Colt, can stick around and help mentor Luck, still can be embraced by Indy fans, and eliminates the drama and health risks for his future.

But I've got an armchair QBR of 68.3 so what do I know.

 

[waggy]

yeah i don't see them keeping manning and luck.

 

[darkxshade]

He's not going to retire, it's not a matter of if he'll be healthy, it's a matter of when. Great players will always attempt one last hurrah before hanging anything up even with nagging scars and with Peyton, the only way to know he's done is to come back for one season and fail or he'll retire always wondering if he had another year in him.

 

[mvbighead]

He's not going to retire, it's not a matter of if he'll be healthy, it's a matter of when. Great players will always attempt one last hurrah before hanging anything up even with nagging scars and with Peyton, the only way to know he's done is to come back for one season and fail or he'll retire always wondering if he had another year in him.

This. It doesn't sound like Manning is ready to be done. He could be hanging on hoping they don't release just to collect 28 million, but I doubt that's the plan.

 

[manimal]

Manning has really young twins at home and hes enjoying being a father. With the money he has made the decision to retire and be at home is pretty high probably.

 

[mvbighead]

Manning has really young twins at home and hes enjoying being a father. With the money he has made the decision to retire and be at home is pretty high probably.

While I am sure that factors in some on his deliberation, there are plenty of family men in the NFL. Philip Rivers for example drives a minivan to the stadium from what I've read. I am sure retirement isn't on his mind because he has kids at home.

Manning's decision will be entirely about his health and what doctors suggest. If they think he'll have a high probability for severe physical injury, that will have the largest impact on his decision, IMO.

 

[waggy]

While I am sure that factors in some on his deliberation, there are plenty of family men in the NFL. Philip Rivers for example drives a minivan to the stadium from what I've read. I am sure retirement isn't on his mind because he has kids at home.

Manning's decision will be entirely about his health and what doctors suggest. If they think he'll have a high probability for severe physical injury, that will have the largest impact on his decision, IMO.

i agree.

if it was just the kid he would have retired a while ago. though his kids will play a factor on if he is "healthy" enough to play. wouldn't be the first person to retire because they don't want to get to banged up to spend time with the kids.

 

[thegimp03]

No way that Irsay is going to keep him and draft Luck/Griffin. He's in a really bad spot. Keep Peyton and draft Luck/Griffin, and I think Peyton gets pissed off because his starting role is in jeopardy. Plus like someone said above he's paying out a shitload of money for 2 players, of which 1 will get to play all the time. And, it's not like the rest of the team is getting any younger. Get rid of Peyton (the guy who's won a SB for you and made you perennial playoff contenders) and draft Luck/Griffin will piss off a bunch of fans. Keep Peyton and trade the pick, well, if Peyton gets hurt and his career ends next season, that will piss off a lot of fans too.

Please don't let him go anywhere near teams in the NFC West (other than the Niners of course, but I think Alex Smith had a good year and they can continue to build the team around him). I think the only team that might take him in the NFC West would be the Seahawks.

If he goes to the Jets, stock in Holmes, Burress, and Keller gets a major bump.

 

[Deeko]

Peyton to the Jets is Roger Goodell's wet dream. One of their most marketable stars in the biggest media market, in the same town as his brother (who is in the Superbowl)? Play Tom Brady at least twice a year?

 

[thegimp03]

Peyton to the Jets is Roger Goodell's wet dream. One of their most marketable stars in the biggest media market, in the same town as his brother (who is in the Superbowl)? Play Tom Brady at least twice a year?

Not to mention, both Manning brothers playing from the same home stadium.

 

[Genx87]

If he is able to play why would Indy dump him? Go the aaron rodgers route and let him teach Andrew luck the game and in a few years Manning can retire.

If they dump Manning I already know where he will end up. He will end up with the vikings because that is what we do in MN. We take over the hill QBs and let them have one last stand.

 

[Linflas]

Irsay has repeatedly said that if Peyton is healthy, he'll be a Colt. I will hold him to his word.

I wouldn't trust an Irsay as far as I could throw an Escalade but as a former fan of the Baltimore Colts my judgement in all things Irsay may be a tad biased.

 

[mvbighead]

If he is able to play why would Indy dump him? Go the aaron rodgers route and let him teach Andrew luck the game and in a few years Manning can retire.

If they dump Manning I already know where he will end up. He will end up with the vikings because that is what we do in MN. We take over the hill QBs and let them have one last stand.

1st, Luck will be the #1 overall pick. Rodgers was the 25th or so. Completely different situations. If you take a player #1 overall, it's because you feel he can contribute.

Why would they dump him? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and health. That's it. 28 million for someone whose return is questionable... doesn't sound like a wise person to make that investment, regardless of what Manning has done.

As for over the hill... if and when the guy gets healthy, he'll be 36. Favre played till 40. There are a number of good players near 40. If Manning is healthy, he is as good as there is in the league.

And Minnesota... hmm, one cluster bomb to another... highly doubtful. He'll go to a team with a legitimate shot at a SB. At this point, MN isn't it. AP will need a year or so to come back from that ACL at 100%. The rest of their team is nothing special.

 

[eits]

i heard rumors that the redskins were looking at taking him from indy. i'm a skins fan and i'd be pretty pissed if that happened. he's too old right now and he's got an injury that will ONLY make things worse down the road.

 

[darkswordsman17]

I think we might be seeing Manning make a play to have the Colts release him so that he can be free to make a decision. This team won't be the team he's played with the past several years, and is not going to be a serious Super Bowl contender with everything that has gone on even if Manning comes back 100%. Trading the first pick won't do enough to change that in the timeframe Manning has left, so he may as well move on. Then the question is, where does he go? I think that could have plenty of impact on him retiring or not.

I don't see any way the Colts don't draft Luck, as they can always shop him later. Its not like that'll hurt his value that much. Getting training alongside Peyton generally wouldn't be a knock on a QB. Plenty of teams will get desperate as the season gets closer and if they find out Luck is a possibility will likely start offering big name veterans in trade.

I guess really, they might not be that screwed if they lose Manning later. Sure they'll be out quite a bit of money this year, but no one would expect even a playoff run from Luck as a rookie (especially with that team), so it shouldn't hurt them much long term. If he's ready to play, I'm sure there would be at least one team willing to give up a fair amount and that Peyton would be willing to play for that would make a trade feasible.