Originally posted by: Perry404
NH residents gave 4x as much money to Ron Paul as did Iowans and NH has half the population of Iowa. If this is a reliable indicator(which I believe it is) then NH has four votes to every one of Iowas waiting for Ron Paul.
So when are your "reliable indicators" going to be the actual scientific poll data instead of tons of unscientific polls, useless information, misleading statistics, and wishfull thinking?
You were partly correct, Paul did get more votes in NH than in IA. But you were way, way off on the amount. It wasn't even close to 4x as many votes. Last I saw they were 17,831 votes in NH (96% of votes counted) and 11,817 votes in IA (98% of votes counted). Thus, there were 1.51 times as many votes in NH. You estimated 11,817*4 = 47,268 votes. He got nearly 30,000 less than that. He wasn't even close to what your "reliable indicator" predicted. Even if you took those 30,000 votes equally from the front runners in NH, Paul still wouldn't have been any better than 3rd.
Paul didn't move from his 5th place showing in IA. Paul didn't reach 10% in this "favorable state". Heck, if you count all votes (dem and rep) Paul only got 3.51% of total votes cast that day. Spin it all you want, Paul didn't do well in NH.
When other candidates drop out, their votes aren't going to go significantly to Paul. Even if they did all go to Paul, he'd still have done poorly. If you add Huckabee + Giuliani + Paul + Thompson + Hunter and gave them all to Paul, he'd still be in 3rd for the republicans and 5th if you consider the democrats Clinton and Obama. Lets go further, suppose Richardson, Kucinich, Biden, Gravel, and Dodd dropped and all their votes also went to Paul. He'd STILL be in 2nd place on the republican side and 3rd overall.