The Official 2020 General Election returns thread CONTAINS NSFW IMAGES IN POST 3,884

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MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
26,725
24,885
136
Vic said:
And I gotta say, if anything is bad for our democracy, it's this double-standard that Biden would have to win by a landslide to be considered legitimate, while Trump could win the EC by 1 vote but lose the popular by millions of votes and still claim a mandate and the right to oppress any state that didn't vote for him. That's tyranny of the minority which is, by obvious definition, undemocratic.
And to any who might say we're not a democracy, I would like to welcome you to give up your own vote, thank you very much.
Click to expand...

I don't think the argument is that Biden has to win in a landslide to be legitimate, it's that he'd have to win in a landslide to show this country can be salvaged and can repudiate evil decisively.
 
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M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,587
4,238
136
ivwshane said:
I guess I should have been more clear, I’m speaking at the county level. The states so far look to be a repeat of 2016. However with higher turnout, Trump’s three state win with less than 80k among them doesn’t look so good for him right now.
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I don't get your argument. What does selective county-level strength have to do with the electoral college votes?

So far, what we know is that Biden has underperformed vs. the final state-level polling in a few key states with substantial votes counted: FL, NC, and OH. GA with 59% counted is not looking great either. Biden will take AZ, but that alone is not decisive.
In other words, all we've learned so far is that pathways for Biden to win tonight are likely gone, and the election will be decided on the Blue Wall, possibly over several days of vote counting.
 
E

eelw

Lifer
Dec 4, 1999
10,414
5,551
136
Vic said:
And I gotta say, if anything is bad for our democracy, it's this double-standard that Biden would have to win by a landslide to be considered legitimate, while Trump could win the EC by 1 vote but lose the popular by millions of votes and still claim a mandate and the right to oppress any state that didn't vote for him. That's tyranny of the minority which is, by obvious definition, undemocratic.
And to any who might say we're not a democracy, I would like to welcome you to give up your own vote, thank you very much.
Click to expand...
Wonder how the results would be if it was a parliamentary system? Winner takes all is stupid.
 
ivwshane

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,746
17,401
136
manly said:
I don't get your argument. What does selective county-level strength have to do with the electoral college votes?

So far, what we know is that Biden has underperformed vs. the final state-level polling in a few key states with substantial votes counted: FL, NC, and OH. GA with 59% counted is not looking great either. Biden will take AZ, but that alone is not decisive.
In other words, all we've learned so far is that pathways for Biden to win tonight are likely gone, and the election will be decided on the Blue Wall, possibly over several days of vote counting.
Click to expand...

You don’t understand that a bigger turnout this year over 2016 bodes well for democrats when it looks like all else will be the same?

It’s like 2020 will come down to the same three states and with higher turnout than on 2016 that should translate into pickups for Biden.
 
Vic

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
eelw said:
Wonder how the results would be if it was a parliamentary system? Winner takes all is stupid.
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If we were a parliamentary system, then Pelosi would have been Prime Minister since 2018.
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,587
4,238
136
ivwshane said:
You don’t understand that a bigger turnout this year over 2016 bodes well for democrats when it looks like all else will be the same?

It’s like 2020 will come down to the same three states and with higher turnout than on 2016 that should translate into pickups for Biden.
Click to expand...
Before the votes were being counted, I understood this general argument about massive turnout.

As the votes are getting counted, all that matters is who gets the most votes state-wide. Compare the 4 states I mentioned vs. the final 538 state projections.

I'm not saying FL/NC/OH are correlated to the Blue Wall, but OH is fairly similar to PA. If there's a massive polling error across the swing states, it doesn't matter if you like your chances from high turnout. And the early returns from the Blue Wall aren't encouraging.
 
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Vic

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
fskimospy said:
Trump will lose the popular vote badly no matter what happens. If you think otherwise I’m open to bets at very favorable odds for you.
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Weird how the party that is so concerned about tyranny of the majority is so eager to enforce their tyranny of the minority.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,255
55,808
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Vic said:
Weird how the party that is so concerned about tyranny of the majority is so eager to enforce their tyranny of the minority.
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What made you think they ever cared about that? They care about not getting their way.
 
Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
41,347
10,468
136
MrSquished said:
It's like we have to have to have black Jesus in order to beat fatter Mussolini. What a fucking rigged shit show this is.
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Did you see the video of Obama leaving a gym the other day and tossing a 22 foot nothing but netter on the way out? He keeps walking, pulls his mask down a bit and yelps "that's what I do!" Trump couldn't have gotten the ball within 2 feet of the rim to save his life.
 
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gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,536
2,424
136
BlueWeasel said:
Yes, I believe so. In fact, without Obama, we probably don't have Trump. Many old, racist white people were angered that a "Arab negro muslim" occupied the WH for 8 years and they propelled Trump to victory in 2016.
Click to expand...

But places like Iowa and Indiana went for Obama in 2008...how do you explain that?
 
D

Dave_5k

Platinum Member
May 23, 2017
2,007
3,820
136
manly said:
Before the votes were being counted, I understood this general argument about massive turnout.

As the votes are getting counted, all that matters is who gets the most votes state-wide. Compare the 4 states I mentioned vs. the final 538 state projections.

I'm not saying FL/NC/OH are correlated to the Blue Wall, but OH is fairly similar to PA. If there's a massive polling error across the swing states, it doesn't matter if you like your chances from high turnout.
Click to expand...
Agree. Some mostly complete counts, as comparisons from tonight:
Florida: +6% shift to Trump vs. 538 forecast [from Biden +2.5 to Trump+3.5]
North Carolina: +3% shift to Trump
Ohio: +7% shift to Trump

These are all terrible results for Biden, and strongly imply that his +4 or +5 poll lead in Pennsylvania is at significant risk.

Edit: and also, shows how terrible pollsters have been (with pollsters pretending to claim "95%" confidence intervals that are half the magnitude of these misses...)
 
Mai72

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,562
1,742
126
Damn, it's a real possibility that we could see another 4 years of Donald Trump.

Well... I guess we aren't going to see another round of stimulus checks.
 
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