The Official 2020 General Election returns thread CONTAINS NSFW IMAGES IN POST 3,884

[dank69]

Virginia is making me fucking nervous.

 

[Muse]

Meanwhile, I'm sitting down to leftover ribs from my Halloween bbq. I used to be an all-wood pit purist, but the Traeger has converted me.

I made my first pizza in over 3 years tonight, just before the first returns started coming in. Removed a small ball of pizza dough from the freezer, defrosted it today, rejuvenated it with some extra yeast, spun and proofed in bread machine, rolled out nicely, topped with home made Italian sauce made with my home grown tomatoes, canned in 2015, topped with 2 kinds of sausage, 3 kinds of cheese, onions, bell peppers, pineapple... MONSTROUSLY GOOD!

Can't handle the networks' coverage anymore, mostly those people are shills for the networks. I liked hearing from Amy Klobochar, Christie is an ugly motherfucker.

 

[MrSquished]

Why? Obama managed to find a path, and against better challengers.

It happens, but we can't count on having a transcendent candidate every election. But what we should be able to count on is a decisive majority of folks being able to differentiate between competence and a human soul vs a shit sandwich and sociopathy. Unfortunately we can't. This country is utterly fucked, even if Biden wins narrowly. There are just too many goners at this point.

 

[Vic]

Really? It would be a lot cleaner for our democracy if Biden wins by a decent cushion; I'm sure you understand this.

If it's anything close to 271-269, Trump is gonna clusterfuck us for weeks. The Atlantic has a fascinating piece on what scenarios could play out if it's razor-thin and Trump decides to fight.

A landslide would be cleaner for either side but democracy itself thrives off a close and contested decision. In fact, for all the complaints about Trump's damage to our democracy, the record voter turnouts he has generated (both for and against him) have inarguably strengthened it (albeit in spite of him). Of course, that wouldn't apply to a 2nd term Trump, once set free from re-election concerns.

 

[Vic]

Why? Obama managed to find a path, and against better challengers.

No. McCain and Romney were not better challengers. Both ran terrible campaigns, and both refused to cater to their voter base. McCain could have won by calling Obama an 'Arab' like his base wanted, while Romney was fundamentally flawed with the evangelical base because he is Mormon.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I’ll say it.
I am concerned so far it’s looking like a 2016 repeat.

 

[K1052]

Virginia is making me fucking nervous.

Big D counties still have almost all their votes yet to report.

 

[Wreckem]

Biden still has about a 1 in 20 chance for NC, but largest set of missing votes is from Randolph county (Clinton 13k, Trump 50k in last election), it's basically over in NC for Biden barring a county reporting error in current tabulated results.

What results are you looking at? The numbers I am seeing is most votes are in Wake.

 

[fskimospy]

What’s funny is before Election Day everyone said ‘remember, no matter what happens it will probably look like Trump is ahead so don’t rush to conclusions’.

Then everyone rushed to conclusions.

 

[ivwshane]

Not sure how you come to that conclusion. So far, no swing states have flipped since 2016. I suppose we can feel good about having a strong polling lead in WI+MI, so Biden just needs PA or AZ to flip the election (if my math is correct, PA would certainly do it).

So it's not about gains, margins or national vote count (conservatively, you can already guess Biden will have well over 6M more total votes). It's about the Electoral College, and so far tonight, there's nothing that really supports your assertion. Too early to call IMO.

Remember coming into tonight, Nate Silver/538 modeled that Biden had about a coin flip's chance of having the election called in his favor before the morning (in other words, he was going to blow well past 300 EC votes). Unless something drastically changes in GA or TX, it looks like we likely won't know for days and that plays into the corrupt incumbent's hands. But again, too early to say even that until more votes are counted in the Rust Belt.

I guess I should have been more clear, I’m speaking at the county level. The states so far look to be a repeat of 2016. However with higher turnout, Trump’s three state win with less than 80k among them doesn’t look so good for him right now.

 

[Dave_5k]

Virginia is making me fucking nervous.

Don't fret about Virginia, it is solid Blue still. Worry about:
- Pennsylvania (get ready for week-long headache)
- Arizona as only realistic backup for Biden left if lose Pennsylvania (early ballots counted first have favored Biden, but rest of counting left is election day ballots - likely continue to shift toward Trump during night)
- And keep wary eyes on Wisconsin and Michigan as a potential repeat of 2016

 

[Starbuck1975]

No. McCain and Romney were not better challengers. Both ran terrible campaigns, and both refused to cater to their voter base. McCain could have won by calling Obama an 'Arab' like his base wanted, while Romney was fundamentally flawed with the evangelical base because he is Mormon.

Would Obama beat Trump?

 

[Wreckem]

Going to be close, but basically only rural heavily republican counties left to report votes in NC - looks like Biden loss in a close one (NYT has Biden odds down to 25% chance now)

Election Needles: President (Published 2020)

Modeling key battleground states.

www.nytimes.com

Wake county has more votes outstanding that all of the rural counties...

 

[HurleyBird]

One easy takeaway here is that Democrats shouldn't be spending hundreds of millions of dollars trying unseat immovable objects who they hate, like Graham and McConnel, and instead use that in swing states for the general.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Posting this ahead of time for folks here that are damned to repeat history.....

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Would Obama beat Trump?

Obama created Trump. 45% of America couldn't handle a black president who wanted to help Americans.

The options shouldn't be either a fucking unicorn or a racist, xenophobic, pile of shit.

 

[MrSquished]

Wake county has more votes outstanding that all of the rural counties...

I read on twitter that Randolph county in NC had a 30K mistake in favor of Trump that is being corrected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323827901217886210

 

[Dave_5k]

What results are you looking at? The numbers I am seeing is most votes are in Wake.

I'm looking at which counties have not yet reported results, Wake votes are already counted in results (370k for Biden / 198k for Trump included in NC results)
That same NYT website if refreshed shows this - counties on left side of graphic have reported and been counted, ones on right side have not.

 

[TheVrolok]

What’s funny is before Election Day everyone said ‘remember, no matter what happens it will probably look like Trump is ahead so don’t rush to conclusions’.

Then everyone rushed to conclusions.

Yep, even though we've all been told, repeatedly, that the blue wall states will likely drift toward Biden over time as early votes are finally counted. Patience.

 

[purbeast0]

Virginia is making me fucking nervous.

They said something earlier on CNN that like 5% of the early voting had been counted in Fairfax which explains a lot.

 

[BlueWeasel]

Would Obama beat Trump?

Yes, I believe so. In fact, without Obama, we probably don't have Trump. Many old, racist white people were angered that a "Arab negro muslim" occupied the WH for 8 years and they propelled Trump to victory in 2016.

 

[Vic]

And I gotta say, if anything is bad for our democracy, it's this double-standard that Biden would have to win by a landslide to be considered legitimate, while Trump could win the EC by 1 vote but lose the popular by millions of votes and still claim a mandate and the right to oppress any state that didn't vote for him. That's tyranny of the minority which is, by obvious definition, undemocratic.
And to any who might say we're not a democracy, I would like to welcome you to give up your own vote, thank you very much.

 

[Vic]

Would Obama beat Trump?

I'd say we're watching that race unfold right now.

 

[Wreckem]

The same NYTimes site shows how many Dem counties still have outstanding votes. There are about 400k votes left and most are in fact in Dem areas. Wake had about 88-100k left.

NC is a coin flip. We won’t know until all absentee ballots arrive with in three days.

 

[Brainonska511]

What’s funny is before Election Day everyone said ‘remember, no matter what happens it will probably look like Trump is ahead so don’t rush to conclusions’.

Then everyone rushed to conclusions.

It also plays straight into the stupid Trump talking point that vote totals are hermetically sealed at the end of the night. Trying to analyze vote tabulation in realtime seams like a fools errand and really just a way to drive up your blood pressure.