The Cognitive Decline Disinformation Campaign Being Launched Against Biden

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Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,871
7,796
136
Terrible gamble? What’s the odds of an incumbent president being reelected? What’s the record for people who have primaried incumbent presidents?
Out of curiosity (and a desire for reassurance) just looked it up and out of 45 Presidents, ten have failed to be relected when standing as an incumbent. So that would make the odds of an incumbent not being re-elected a bit less than 1 in 4.

Though now I think about it, not sure if the number of Presidents is the correct denominator - maybe it should be 'number of Presidential elections'? i.e. about 60, so that would make the odds 1 in 6. But then again, maybe you shouldn't count the elections where no incumbent was standing, so, er, um...

Also, what _is_ the record for "performance in a subsequent Presidential election for candidates who successfully primaried the previous incumbent"? Haven't got the energy to go through every election to work it out.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,214
5,001
136
Out of curiosity (and a desire for reassurance) just looked it up and out of 45 Presidents, ten have failed to be relected when standing as an incumbent. So that would make the odds of an incumbent not being re-elected a bit less than 1 in 4.

Though now I think about it, not sure if the number of Presidents is the correct denominator - maybe it should be 'number of Presidential elections'? i.e. about 60, so that would make the odds 1 in 6. But then again, maybe you shouldn't count the elections where no incumbent was standing, so, er, um...

Also, what _is_ the record for "performance in a subsequent Presidential election for candidates who successfully primaried the previous incumbent"? Haven't got the energy to go through every election to work it out.
None of that matters. I watched experts and prognosticators across the country declare Trump would never be president. They had graphs and poll results, they had focus group studies, what they didn't have was a clue.

It ain't over till it's over. If you're worried about Trump being president keep worrying.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,225
46,800
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None of that matters. I watched experts and prognosticators across the country declare Trump would never be president. They had graphs and poll results, they had focus group studies, what they didn't have was a clue.

It ain't over till it's over. If you're worried about Trump being president keep worrying.
I think the lesson of 2016 is that any major party candidate has at least a puncher’s chance of winning these days.

If Trump is the nominee in 2024 he has a chance of winning. It’s not a great chance as he’s probably going to be a convicted felon by the time the election rolls around, but it’s a chance.

It’s also interesting that attempting a coup is not disqualifying to conservatives. I guess they aren’t the world’s biggest fans of democracy though.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,225
46,800
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No. If you think there is no gamble with Biden, you are deluded.
Of course there is a gamble with Biden - he’s just obviously the smallest gamble.

This is all very simple:
1) any primary challenger to Biden will lose.
2) a primary challenge to Biden weakens him in the general election.

So unless you have a way to mind control Biden into stepping aside he’s the best bet. Simple.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,068
5,596
126
Of course there is a gamble with Biden - he’s just obviously the smallest gamble.

This is all very simple:
1) any primary challenger to Biden will lose.
2) a primary challenge to Biden weakens him in the general election.

So unless you have a way to mind control Biden into stepping aside he’s the best bet. Simple.

Which is why he should choose so.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,214
5,001
136
Of course there is a gamble with Biden - he’s just obviously the smallest gamble.

This is all very simple:
1) any primary challenger to Biden will lose.
2) a primary challenge to Biden weakens him in the general election.

So unless you have a way to mind control Biden into stepping aside he’s the best bet. Simple.
The thing is, mind control really is the answer. Watching Joe drift away while making a statement is disconcerting. We can all pretend that it's perfectly normal or put our fingers in our ears and hum, but that doesn't change what we see.
I've watched a couple of people drift away, it's a terrible thing to know there is nothing you can do but wait.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,225
46,800
136
The thing is, mind control really is the answer. Watching Joe drift away while making a statement is disconcerting. We can all pretend that it's perfectly normal or put our fingers in our ears and hum, but that doesn't change what we see.
I've watched a couple of people drift away, it's a terrible thing to know there is nothing you can do but wait.
Conservatives have been making this same claim since 2019 and Biden has done an incredible job in office. If this is what dementia looks like we need more demented politicians.

Regardless even if this were true it looks likely that the choice will be between Biden and the guy who literally attempted to end American democracy. Who gives a shit? The vote is always against the guy who tried a coup.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,523
31,930
136
And who would step up to the plate to run on the Democratic ticket?

Everyone screaming for him to step aside seems to be creating some sort of wish candidate in their mind that doesn't exist.

Ahem they prefer the term "generic Democratic candidate".

Such a thing of course does not actually exist and cannot since real candidates are actual people with history, political stances, records, personalities, etc.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,523
31,930
136
The thing is, mind control really is the answer. Watching Joe drift away while making a statement is disconcerting. We can all pretend that it's perfectly normal or put our fingers in our ears and hum, but that doesn't change what we see.
I've watched a couple of people drift away, it's a terrible thing to know there is nothing you can do but wait.

Trump is a whole three years younger, in worse physical condition, easily confused, and wants to build concentration camps.

This election is the battle of the old fucks. I'm going with the old fuck who is not dangerous to the county's continued existence.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,225
46,800
136
Trump is a whole three years younger, in worse physical condition, easily confused, and wants to build concentration camps.

This election is the battle of the old fucks. I'm going with the old fuck who is not dangerous to the county's continued existence.
Trump also attempted a coup last time he was in office, which seems relevant in case people want there to be a 2028 election.

Like Trump literally tried to overthrow the government. How is this even a question?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,523
31,930
136
Trump also attempted a coup last time he was in office, which seems relevant in case people want there to be a 2028 election.

Like Trump literally tried to overthrow the government. How is this even a question?

I think a sizable majority of the Republican electorate would be ok with that.

They assume that they'll always be the ones wearing the boot of course which isn't guaranteed.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,225
46,800
136
I think a sizable majority of the Republican electorate would be ok with that.

They assume that they'll always be the ones wearing the boot of course which isn't guaranteed.
I agree, sadly.

What’s darkly interesting though is that Republicans think of themselves as good Americans and that means supporting democracy so they search for ways to convince themselves that the coup attempt was not a coup attempt.

It’s like Russia - I’m sure there are plenty of Putin supporters there who have convinced themselves that democracy still exists there.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,068
5,596
126
Trump also attempted a coup last time he was in office, which seems relevant in case people want there to be a 2028 election.

Like Trump literally tried to overthrow the government. How is this even a question?

I agree, it should be easy, but it's really quite shocking to see the Polls and how Jan 6 is viewed in the US. The Electorate is also well known for its' Short Memory and the fact that people voted against Trump more than they voted for Biden. Will there be the same Enthusiasm? I hope so.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,420
9,727
136
I agree, it should be easy, but it's really quite shocking to see the Polls and how Jan 6 is viewed in the US. The Electorate is also well known for its' Short Memory and the fact that people voted against Trump more than they voted for Biden. Will there be the same Enthusiasm? I hope so.
If Democrats campaign on the repeal of Roe, I think that will help their numbers bigly
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,406
6,818
136
The thing is, mind control really is the answer. Watching Joe drift away while making a statement is disconcerting. We can all pretend that it's perfectly normal or put our fingers in our ears and hum, but that doesn't change what we see.
I've watched a couple of people drift away, it's a terrible thing to know there is nothing you can do but wait.


Mitch McConnell is a perfect example of that drifting you're referring to.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
35,766
27,356
136
The thing is, mind control really is the answer. Watching Joe drift away while making a statement is disconcerting. We can all pretend that it's perfectly normal or put our fingers in our ears and hum, but that doesn't change what we see.
I've watched a couple of people drift away, it's a terrible thing to know there is nothing you can do but wait.
Don't you think it's much greater cognitive dissidence people who appear lucid yet deny reality? "Jan 6 didn't happen."

Which is more dangerous?