The Battle of Swat

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tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
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TGB,
Stop assuming that the Taliban is going to lie down and play dead just because the faujis have arrived. No insurgency in recent times has been put down in a few days. To whit:

Sri-Lanka: 3 decades and still going on
India (Punjab): A decade in the 80s before being put down
India (Kashmir): on-going after 2 decades
Iran, Iraq, Turkey (Kurds): decades
Nepal: decades before the Maoists won
Various South American rebel causes: decades

And most of the security apparatus of these countries have much, much greater experience at tackling asymmetrical warfare than the pakistani army. And it remains to be seen whether the latter is even 100% committed to the cause because it looks more like a side-show to lubricate the American aid wheels so that it flows smoothly.

Over-confidence is the first step towards defeat.
 

The Green Bean

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2003
6,506
7
81
Originally posted by: tvarad
TGB,
Stop assuming that the Taliban is going to lie down and play dead just because the faujis have arrived. No insurgency in recent times has been put down in a few days. To whit:

Sri-Lanka: 3 decades and still going on
India (Punjab): A decade in the 80s before being put down
India (Kashmir): on-going after 2 decades
Iran, Iraq, Turkey (Kurds): decades
Nepal: decades before the Maoists won
Various South American rebel causes: decades

And most of the security apparatus of these countries have much, much greater experience at tackling asymmetrical warfare than the pakistani army. And it remains to be seen whether the latter is even 100% committed to the cause because it looks more like a side-show to lubricate the American aid wheels so that it flows smoothly.

Over-confidence is the first step towards defeat.
The difference here is that most of the hardcore fighters are foreigners from Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Additionally I have no doubt that the influence of the Taliban will be present but it will be minimal. This is because this conflict may have ethnic roots but apparently this is a war of ideologies. The Pakistanis have said they will impose Sharia law by themselves in this region once the Taliban are ousted. The demands of the people would have been met.

I would think that the Balochistan insurgency which now seems to have been contained is a bigger threat in the long term because it is one driven by nationalism rather than religion.

Having said that it's going to take a whole decade or more before the region comes on par with the rest of Pakistan in terms of security and economic development.

And all those that say that the army has never ventured here before are wrong. This is a settled area unlike the FATA into which the army seldom goes.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
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TGB,
You sound like Yahya Khan who thundered that he'd finished off the Mukthi Bahini after the March 25, 1971 night of terror. Bangladesh was free less than a year later. Your faujis only know how to start a war. Someone else always finishes it for them.

I would be a little less smug if I were you, considering your history.
 

TheSkinsFan

Golden Member
May 15, 2009
1,141
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Originally posted by: The Green Bean
The Pakistanis have said they will impose Sharia law by themselves in this region once the Taliban are ousted. The demands of the people would have been met.

Sharia Law? That's just super... :disgust:
 

The Green Bean

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2003
6,506
7
81
Originally posted by: TheSkinsFan
Originally posted by: The Green Bean
The Pakistanis have said they will impose Sharia law by themselves in this region once the Taliban are ousted. The demands of the people would have been met.

Sharia Law? That's just super... :disgust:

Actually you only have a negative opinion of Sharia law because:

1) The Taliban have done lot of evil on the basis of Sharia.
2) You media portrays sharia as evil.
3) Your culture has different ideals.

This is not what this thread is about. Create another thread if u want. I won't be part of it though.
 

The Green Bean

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2003
6,506
7
81
Originally posted by: tvarad
TGB,
You sound like Yahya Khan who thundered that he'd finished off the Mukthi Bahini after the March 25, 1971 night of terror. Bangladesh was free less than a year later. Your faujis only know how to start a war. Someone else always finishes it for them.

I would be a little less smug if I were you, considering your history.

You sound like a kid who has been bullied in school his entire life and takes all of his anger and frustration out in hating Pakistan and cheering when something bad happens to it and feeling sad when something good happens.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
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0
Originally posted by: The Green Bean
Originally posted by: tvarad
TGB,
You sound like Yahya Khan who thundered that he'd finished off the Mukthi Bahini after the March 25, 1971 night of terror. Bangladesh was free less than a year later. Your faujis only know how to start a war. Someone else always finishes it for them.

I would be a little less smug if I were you, considering your history.

You sound like a kid who has been bullied in school his entire life and takes all of his anger and frustration out in hating Pakistan and cheering when something bad happens to it and feeling sad when something good happens.

I take zero pleasure in seeing the hundreds of thousands of innocent people having to abandon their livelihood and live off other people's largesse. That's got to be very degrading.

Please look at the editorial on the link that you've provided and it states "It is much too early to predict the outcome but the result will have a huge bearing on the wider fight against militancy."...."Needless to say, a Taliban victory in Swat ? or even a stalemate ? will be an unmitigated disaster. It will further embolden an already audacious enemy and spell ruin for the country."

These folks have thought through the problem just like me, instead of wishing away victory like you.
 

The Green Bean

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2003
6,506
7
81
Originally posted by: tvarad
Originally posted by: The Green Bean
Originally posted by: tvarad
TGB,
You sound like Yahya Khan who thundered that he'd finished off the Mukthi Bahini after the March 25, 1971 night of terror. Bangladesh was free less than a year later. Your faujis only know how to start a war. Someone else always finishes it for them.

I would be a little less smug if I were you, considering your history.

You sound like a kid who has been bullied in school his entire life and takes all of his anger and frustration out in hating Pakistan and cheering when something bad happens to it and feeling sad when something good happens.

I take zero pleasure in seeing the hundreds of thousands of innocent people having to abandon their livelihood and live off other people's largesse. That's got to be very degrading.

Please look at the editorial on the link that you've provided and it states "It is much too early to predict the outcome but the result will have a huge bearing on the wider fight against militancy."...."Needless to say, a Taliban victory in Swat ? or even a stalemate ? will be an unmitigated disaster. It will further embolden an already audacious enemy and spell ruin for the country."

These folks have thought through the problem just like me, instead of wishing away victory like you.

LOL! your posts are full of fallacies. Please read the whole article and not just one line.

The battle for the Taliban heartland in Swat moved up a gear on Tuesday as crack commando units were airlifted to mountains ringing Peochar, the district headquarters of militant chief Fazlullah and his band of fighters. It is much too early to predict the outcome but the result will have a huge bearing on the wider fight against militancy.

A rout here of the Taliban ? and, ideally, the capture or surrender of Fazlullah ? may demoralise the militants who still control Mingora, Swat?s largest city, and lead to desertions in other areas as well. If the military is to be believed, this is already happening in Malakand Division as a whole, where new recruits and ?criminal elements? who had sided with the Taliban are said to have lost their appetite for battle. The military also maintains that nearly 750 militants have been killed so far in the ongoing operation. Unfortunately, there is no way of independently verifying these claims or, in some cases, distinguish-ing between dead fighters and civilians caught in the crossfire.

That said, it is clear that significant advances have been made in recent days and the Taliban are now on the defensive. Given the appeasement policies of successive governments, perhaps they never expected so ferocious a response. A rout of the Fazlullah-led Taliban may also destabilise their counterparts in the tribal belt, which must become the focus of counter-insurgency efforts once peace is achieved in Swat.

A Taliban setback in Swat could, however, also produce the reverse effect in the tribal areas. It may serve as a catalyst for binding together the loose confederation of militants operating there and ultimately produce a more united fighting force. Needless to say, a Taliban victory in Swat ? or even a stalemate ? will be an unmitigated disaster. It will further embolden an already audacious enemy and spell ruin for the country.

The current crackdown has naturally gone down well with the US which had long been pushing, to put it mildly, for decisive action against the Taliban. Washington?s routine public criticism of Islamabad?s capitulation as well as aspersions cast on Pakistan?s security apparatus served no constructive purpose whatsoever. Any such complaints ought to have been discussed solely on a government-to-government level but were instead broadcast through the media as well.

Now that a military operation is in full swing, US criticism has tapered off for the time being. If we are in this together for the long haul, Washington would do well to show patience and hold its verbal fire.

I think there is about as much chance of the Taliban winning as there is of the Maoists capturing New Delhi. If it happens it will be "will be an unmitigated disaster. It will further embolden an already audacious enemy and spell ruin for the country."

You may say one the Tvarad. But your posts suggest otherwise. You have long wanted the destruction of Pakistan. And frankly, it's people like you that forces 200,000 soldiers of our army to border you. There is absolutely no proof of the ISI's involvement in the Mumbai attacks. If there is anything - bring it forward. I think your media has brainwashed people like you to hate Pakistan and to blame everything on us. The Pakistan government can not be blamed for the incompetence of the Mumbai police.

The Indian government has not even been able to prove that Kasab is guilty let alone the Pakistani government. I'd wait for the courts verdict before blaming all Pakistanis for it. I think your media has been fairly succesful in ligthing the fire of hate against us in their public. Look at their news channels. Even good news is always shown in a bad light. Apparently we went to war because of American pressure. How the hell is that even possible. 95% of the population hates the Taliban. 80% support this operation. Even the most outspoken parties against the US support this operation bar one. I think you should think twice before you believe your media.

On the other hand; the Pakistani media and people extend their hands of friendship. If we blame India, we blame our government first. Our news channels do not go on air to say "This is the time to hate India."

I sincerely hope that there is a regime change in New Delhi. A government that is all talk no actions is dangerous for the entire nation. A foreign minister that threatens other countries with war because of the lapse of security in his own country can not be blamed. How the Indian navy and coast guard who claim to be the best in the region allowed a small boat with 9 AK47s to land at a busy beach in their biggest city is either a hoax or demonstrates hopeless security.

I would say India is partly to blame for the Taliban's rise. War rhetoric forced us to move troops out of the NWFP to the border. I think it's time for them to say you have our full support and calm the situation down. Being the largest democracy in the world means they have extra responsibility. It doesn't mean they should bully other countries - especially one that is nuclear.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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Originally posted by: The Green Bean
The Pakistanis have said they will impose Sharia law by themselves in this region once the Taliban are ousted. The demands of the people would have been met.

The Sharia law was originally imposed by the Taliban on the region. The Pakistan government abdicated the area and allowed the Talbian to take over. It was not that the people wanted the law.

If the Pakistan government forces the Sharia law on the SWAT area, they are just duplicating what the Taliban stated initially that they wanted. Most of us knew that was not all they wanted as was shown by further events which eventually triggered the military response.

/spelling

 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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" The Sharia law was orignally imposed by the Taliban on the region. The Pakistan government abdicated the area and allowed the Talbian to take over. It was not that the people wanted the law."

That Common Courtesy statement may not be as accurate as it seems. Long before the Taliban was pushed into the tribal regions of
Pakistan, those same regions were somewhat the the lawless wild wild West of US frontier days. As long as one paid somewhat lip service to the local customs and did not do all kinds of outrageous actions, one could get by. And the transgressors who did not were more likely to be punished by local vigilante justice rather than a formal court of law. With the latter being historically missing in action in the tribal areas of Pakistan. So blaming the Taliban for destabilizing a formal justice system that never existed in the first place, is a bad assumption.

The point being, like or it not, the more modern world has come to the tribal areas of Pakistan, as a unstoppable import. And one of those new needs implied by the modern world is a formal and codified legal system enforceable by courts of law. At the same time, the tribal areas of Pakistan are at the Sharia law state of development because all segments of the local population are willing to adopt sharia law by almost 100% consensus.

And Sharia law, like any legal system, should and can be a living document subject to interpretation by judges. What we in the USA sometimes deride as judicial activism from the bench. Now, question, do "we", meaning the larger world, non residents of the tribal areas of Pakistan, want the residents of the tribal areas of Pakistan to see the Taliban or the Pakistani
government to be the authors of that legal system that is now being born there. Like it or not, legal systems are slow to change.

As it is, the Taliban in Afghanistan and to only to a lesser extent in the tribal areas of Pakistan gain large measures of popular support as they always do impose their version of Sharia law in areas they control. The Taliban version may be quick and brutal vigilante justice, but it still beats anarchy with no legal system or a corrupt by bribes legal system. And now with the recent Pakistani army incursion into the tribal areas, the Pakistani central government has a golden opportunity to be the entity that formally encodes a Sharia law that fits the tribal areas of Pakistan. Such a Sharia law written by the Pakistani government could guarantee female rights including universal access to schooling, and could meet many of the Western sniff test objections to the far more primitive, and quite frankly stupid Taliban Version of Sharia law. And at the same time bring the Taliban under the the same universal sets of legal and illegal behavior while cutting off a valuable Taliban recruitment tool.

If the Pakistani central government and army are long term wise, they will not squander the opportunity to write and enforce a workable and popular sharia law based legal system for the tribal areas of Pakistan.

When full modernity comes to the tribal areas of Pakistan, they like the rest of Islam will reject more and more of the Sharia law based assumptions, and their legal system will come to be more and more like the rest of the world. The stupid assumption is to assume we can get there in one big jump, which seldom works.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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I post the following link to keep alive a thread that I think belongs on the front page of anand tech P&N, its hardly has jumped any sharks because its both ongoing and crucial to US interests in both the Pakistani Afghan area and also in Iraq.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...p_on_re_as/as_pakistan

At this point, the Pakistani army is taking the fight to the Taliban, who are even shaving their beards to try to blend in. Unlike Afghanistan where the Taliban can preach that Nato is not only the root of all evil, they can alos look forward to the day when Nato, must win, lose, or draw have to leave.

The situation is different in the tribal areas of Pakistan, where Pakistan is and always has been the de facto overall government even though Pakistan have basically allowed tribal area regional autonomy. And now that the Taliban have gone from being guests to thinking they can assert control of the tribal areas, that may prove to be a fatal mistake made by the Taliban.

Its still going to be a hearts and minds battle involving much human misery, and could go either way, but its still going to be perhaps the most important change in seven years for the entire region.
 

The Green Bean

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2003
6,506
7
81
A report from the front line.
Recently an AIRRA (Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy ? an Islamabad-based research organisation) investigation team went to some parts of Swat that had been under army attacks. The team observed whether the attacks were targeted at the Taliban and their installations. It observed two villages -- Ladikas and Watkai in Mingora -- and Khwazakhela, a tehsil in Swat. The team with its access to the people of the area could manage to take Besham route from Islamabad to reach Mingora via Khwazakhela. Though continuous curfew and alternate threats from the military posts and the Taliban posts badly hampered the journey of the team but somehow some of the members could manage to reach Mingora via Khwazakhela and Charbagh with the exodus of the people from different parts of Swat valley. The team was able to access and interview several dozens of those families who were still stuck up in the valley.

The team observed that the security forces have successfully destroyed the installations of the Taliban and have disrupted their chain of command in that area. They have killed many Taliban there with very little collateral damage, albeit with the destruction of civilian infrastructure. The best example is the Taliban headquarter in Khwazakhela. The headquarters was located on a mountain. It housed the Taliban operational command led by commander Yamin, the intelligence department led by commander Rashid and the department of logistics and supplies. The aerial bombardment of the Pakistan army reduced all that to rubble. The entire side of the mountain housing the headquarters has been exploded and razed.

The Taliban terrorists had established the headquarters with great efforts. They had cleansed a huge portion of the forest on the mountain to make free space for the building. They recruited the youth on a large scale, strengthened their command and control structure, established their hierarchical structure, planted mines on the main roads, dug bunkers and occupied the strategic passes in only two and a half months. And they did all this after the peace deal agreed with the NWFP government in February of this year.

The team interacted with the people in the area. Most of those killed were confirmed Taliban. There had been almost no serious collateral damage. Nearby buildings collapsed due to the force of explosions. Some people got injuries when hit by the collapsing debris.

Moreover, the army has cordoned off several narrow alleys of Mingora to prevent the Taliban from escaping. The military has cordoned off Swat from the northeast (the Shangla side), the southeast (the Buner side) and the southwest (the Dir side). In Mingora city itself, the Taliban are reported to be lying dead in the streets and local people confirm that some of them are well-known Taliban leaders.

There are still stranded people in Swat. The people are facing enormous difficulties due to power failure and water reservoirs in their homes which have dried up. Food commodities have become scarce and fuel stations have more or less stopped functioning. Soldiers of the Pakistan army and the FC are sharing their limited food rations with the stranded people. This goodwill gesture has earned respect of the stranded people for the security forces.

It is suggested to the army to issue the photos or video clips of the killed Taliban to the media and of the destroyed Taliban installations. Local people and the IDPs often know the Taliban and location of their installations. They would confirm that the dead were indeed the Taliban and the installations shown as destroyed indeed belonged to the Taliban. This is important because it will ensure transparency and reassure people of the success being achieved in the war.

It is highly commendable that the security forces are conducting targeted operations that have considerably damaged the Taliban in Swat. I would once again request the army high command to destroy the Taliban networks, installations, headquarters everywhere in Pakistan, including FATA and south Punjab. Taliban leaders in each and every city or town of Pakistan have to be neutralised. There is a strong connection between the Taliban in Waziristan, Orakzai, Swat, South Punjab, Khost and Kunar in terms of supply of manpower, weapons and chain of command. This connection is the Al Qaeda-linked Jalaluddin Haqqani and his terror secretariat in North Waziristan. This connection has to be broken, which means that Haqqani's 'secretariat' must be destroyed. Other than the military front, the war against militancy also needs to be fought on the ideological battleground -- Talibanisation needs to be denied ideological space in the country's security and state apparatus and this can be done by targeting elements in state structures and institutions deemed as being sympathetic to the militants.

The army must carry the war against the Taliban to its logical end. The army owes it to the Pakhtun and by extension to Pakistan, because the Pakhtun are citizens of the country and hence deserve the same protection by the state as accorded to those in the other provinces. The Pakhtun have always taken pride in giving their best sons to the army. It is now the turn of the army to reciprocate in such a manner that truly honours the Pakhtun martyrs of the army. This means complete elimination of the Taliban so that the Pakhtun live their lives free of the jihadi fear and intimidation. If done successfully, this will bind the Pakhtun even more closely with the state and the army. In that context, the army must convert this war into an opportunity that will substantially contribute towards making Pakistan a successfully functioning multi-ethnic state.

While the army is rising itself to the occasion, the performance of the politicians is dismal. The soldiers are giving their blood to save us from the Taliban. They are sharing their limited food ration with the stranded people. The army has given a share of their salary to support the relief work for the IDPs. Where are political leaders? What is President Zardari doing abroad? He should be visiting the IDPs rather than foreign lands. What is Asfandyar Wali doing in London? Why is Afrasiab Khattak in Dubai? The IDPs constantly complain that the ministers, MPAs and MNAs only come when the media is there and leave soon afterwards, without tending to their (the IDPs) problems.

All MNAs and MPAs, especially those elected by the people of Swat, Dir and Buner, should stay with the IDPs of their respective constituencies as long as possible because these are after all the people who voted them into public office.



The writer is a research fellow at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Gender Research, University of Oslo, and a member of Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy. Email: bergen34@yahoo.com
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=177904