The Battle of Swat

[The Green Bean]

This is not an India VS Pakistan thread. Both countries have problems and frankly India is not much better of than Pakistan contrary to what the media claims. When it serves their purpose; why not? If there were less people like Tvard; Pakistan would have not needed to spend billions on arms and weapons. If you ask a Pakistani, I'm glad I don't share a country with Tvard.

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: crisscross

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Where does this fruitless debate about the existence of the Pakistani state come from? The modern Pakistani and Indian states were basically born together
as a result of Gandhi finally forcing the British out of regional control.

India would not have fallen so easily to British domination if the Brits were not so adept at harnessing religious hatreds to divide and conquer. Not only is India still ringed in by Muslims states to the East and West, India has plenty of internal religious differences. And here we are, 300 damn years later, and India and Pakistan still have religious hot buttons to push with other bad actors pushing those buttons, and India and Pakistan still have not learned to simply say NO TO THAT DIVISIVE CRAPOLA.

For the last time don't equate India and Pak. Do you even fucking know that Muslims are given money to go on a pilgrimage to Haj? plus they are given special air fares, Muslims have special laws in India when it comes to divorce they are allowed to follow the muslim law board. Indians from other parts of the country are not allowed to own land in Kashmir to ensure that nobody displaces the locals.

And you are equating us with a failed state like Pakistan?

HAHAHAHAH!!! Muslims are treated like shit in India. My family members can't get a flat at most places because they are muslims. What about the Gujurat massacre where government officials ADMIT to murdering muslims!!! India is not much better than Pakistan. It's just that the western media turns a blind eye to India because their war is with the Taliban; not with the Maoists.

Thank your terrorist compatriots for your family members predicament. Because who knows what the flat will be used for? The 26/11 criminals were piling weapons upon weapons into their Taj hotel rooms which they used to slaughter hundreds of people over days. Why would a landlord want to go through the hassles of losing his flat on which he has spent a ton of money because of such criminals' actions?

But I have an even better idea. Why don't you ask your family members to emigrate to the land of the pure, especially to such a peaceful place called Swat that your wonderful army is protecting with such vigor from us vile Indians?

 

[EagleKeeper]

tvarad, The Green Bean, crisscross and to a lesser extent LL

Please keep this thread on the subject - SWAT

If you desire a thread with a different focus where people can discuss India vs PAkistan, please create such a thread.


Senior Anandtech Moderator
Common Courtesy

 

[dphantom]

Please take Pakistani claims of success with caution. It is unlikely any significant progress is being made by Frontier Corp and Levies against teh Taliban and associated groups. The limited deployment of about 15,000 Pakistani regulars is of almost no consequence especially when claims of 5-7000 Taliban in these areas are made. Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.

Link

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Originally posted by: dphantom
Please take Pakistani claims of success with caution. It is unlikely any significant progress is being made by Frontier Corp and Levies against teh Taliban and associated groups. The limited deployment of about 15,000 Pakistani regulars is of almost no consequence especially when claims of 5-7000 Taliban in these areas are made. Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.

Link

Aye.

 

[Lemon law]

Even if we take the dphantom claim of "Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.", at face value, the Pakistani army, unlike Nato, has many more surplus troops it can throw into the battle. As it is, the Pakistani army totally outmatches the Taliban and Al-Quida in armaments, its a fairly modern army vs. insurgents more in the rifle and grenades class.

The question is, will the Pakistani army stay, or just declare victory and go home. Unless they build lasting governmental institutions staffed by personnel who stay and govern, my guess is that Taliban and Al-Quida will be back quickly and set up back in business at their same stands.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Even if we take the dphantom claim of "Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.", at face value, the Pakistani army, unlike Nato, has many more surplus troops it can throw into the battle. As it is, the Pakistani army totally outmatches the Taliban and Al-Quida in armaments, its a fairly modern army vs. insurgents more in the rifle and grenades class.

The question is, will the Pakistani army stay, or just declare victory and go home. Unless they build lasting governmental institutions staffed by personnel who stay and govern, my guess is that Taliban and Al-Quida will be back quickly and set up back in business at their same stands.

Pakistan had facilities in the Swat area previous to the Taliban coming in and taking over.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Even if we take the dphantom claim of "Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.", at face value, the Pakistani army, unlike Nato, has many more surplus troops it can throw into the battle. As it is, the Pakistani army totally outmatches the Taliban and Al-Quida in armaments, its a fairly modern army vs. insurgents more in the rifle and grenades class.

The question is, will the Pakistani army stay, or just declare victory and go home. Unless they build lasting governmental institutions staffed by personnel who stay and govern, my guess is that Taliban and Al-Quida will be back quickly and set up back in business at their same stands.

For once, I agree with you. TGB and friends better be in this for the long-haul -- and they had better be ready to wipe out every last militant while simultaneously setting up enforceable government control -- or the entire operation is f'n pointless.

It will all come down to their collective will, tenaciousness, and dedication to finishing this fight once and for all -- as well as a collective willingness to work with NATO and the Afghan government for a change.

We shall see...

 

[Lemon law]

While Common Courtesy is partially right in saying, "Pakistan had facilities in the Swat area previous to the Taliban coming in and taking over.", those institutions were weak and ineffective. The tribal areas of Pakistan largely had an autonomous relation with the rest of Pakistan historically.

What has largely queered the deal is large numbers of Taliban being pushed into the tribal areas of Pakistan post 2001.

And as we look at a longer time slice of history, 1937 to the present, Afghanistan has been largely a chronic basket case of anarchy and corruption, while the Tribal areas of Pakistan, while hardly getting any better, was still spared from being a basket case any near as bad as Afghanistan.

Now it looks like the Tribal Areas of Pakistan can join Afghanistan on a misery loves company basis.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: palehorse

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Even if we take the dphantom claim of "Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.", at face value, the Pakistani army, unlike Nato, has many more surplus troops it can throw into the battle. As it is, the Pakistani army totally outmatches the Taliban and Al-Quida in armaments, its a fairly modern army vs. insurgents more in the rifle and grenades class.

The question is, will the Pakistani army stay, or just declare victory and go home. Unless they build lasting governmental institutions staffed by personnel who stay and govern, my guess is that Taliban and Al-Quida will be back quickly and set up back in business at their same stands.

For once, I agree with you. TGB and friends better be in this for the long-haul -- and they had better be ready to wipe out every last militant while simultaneously setting up enforceable government control -- or the entire operation is f'n pointless.

It will all come down to their collective will, tenaciousness, and dedication to finishing this fight once and for all -- as well as a collective willingness to work with NATO and the Afghan government for a change.

We shall see...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In other words, palehorse is a hoping that Pakistan will do what Nato has been unable and unwilling to in Afghanistan. I am hardly cheered that you have some faith in Karzai, who as Teddy used to say, has the backbone of a chocolate eclair.

 

[Lemon law]

And ut oh, I now owe an apology to Common Courtesy who wants to confine this thread to the Swat Valley offensive by the Pakistani army. Oddly enough, as I comb the usual news sources for today, they are oddly MIA. Maybe telling us that its going to be a time will tell long term set of questions.

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Originally posted by: palehorse

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Even if we take the dphantom claim of "Typically, CI ops require a force ratio of 10-1.", at face value, the Pakistani army, unlike Nato, has many more surplus troops it can throw into the battle. As it is, the Pakistani army totally outmatches the Taliban and Al-Quida in armaments, its a fairly modern army vs. insurgents more in the rifle and grenades class.

The question is, will the Pakistani army stay, or just declare victory and go home. Unless they build lasting governmental institutions staffed by personnel who stay and govern, my guess is that Taliban and Al-Quida will be back quickly and set up back in business at their same stands.

For once, I agree with you. TGB and friends better be in this for the long-haul -- and they had better be ready to wipe out every last militant while simultaneously setting up enforceable government control -- or the entire operation is f'n pointless.

It will all come down to their collective will, tenaciousness, and dedication to finishing this fight once and for all -- as well as a collective willingness to work with NATO and the Afghan government for a change.

We shall see...

The day i cooperate with the ISI is the day i'll be shot in the neck.

I've fought them harder than the Taliban who leads them.

 

[Lemon law]

To stay as much on the swat offensive topic as possible, I found this poll result on the NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05.../asia/12pstan.html?hpw

A Zendari popularity rating of 19% is hardly a conducive to a sustainable policy in a nation of 165 million people.

But to plead ignorant despite asking the question on various websites, of the total 165 million Pakistani population, how many live in the primitive tribal regions and how many live in the far more Modern regions. I guessed 10 million for the Tribal regions making the dog 15.5 times more massive than the tail.

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To stay as much on the swat offensive topic as possible, I found this poll result on the NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05.../asia/12pstan.html?hpw

A Zendari popularity rating of 19% is hardly a conducive to a sustainable policy in a nation of 165 million people.

But to plead ignorant despite asking the question on various websites, of the total 165 million Pakistani population, how many live in the primitive tribal regions and how many live in the far more Modern regions. I guessed 10 million for the Tribal regions making the dog 15.5 times more massive than the tail.

He's infinently more populare by his views than you'd be by yours, in fact, you'd probably be shot on site if you tried to express your views, by either side.

 

[Lemon law]

I would not exactly recommend you show your face afoot in the tribal ares of Pakistan either if I were you JOS.

I am used to being unpopular, I opposed the Vietnam war when it was popular, I opposed our intervention in Iraq when it was popular, I oppose your tactics but not your overall mission in Afghanistan, and 20-20 hindsight, I have been right every time.

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
.....

And as we look at a longer time slice of history, 1937 to the present, Afghanistan has been largely a chronic basket case of anarchy and corruption, while the Tribal areas of Pakistan, while hardly getting any better, was still spared from being a basket case any near as bad as Afghanistan.

Now it looks like the Tribal Areas of Pakistan can join Afghanistan on a misery loves company basis.

Whatever advancement the Pakistani Tribal areas made (compared to the Afghan side) was because of the efforts of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan who emphasized development, schooling and all the other modern methods of pulling a people out of backwardness. Of course, he was rudely shoved aside by Jinnah and Co. whose successors foisted the likes of the Taliban on them, saying that they were not Islamic enough, while they were downing their bada pegs and chota pegs at Rawalpindi HQ.

 

[The Green Bean]

RAWALPINDI: Director General Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Maj. General Athar Abbas Tuesday said 751 militants have so far been killed while 29 security men martyred and 77 others injured in operation Raah-e-Haq underway in Swat and other parts of Malakand.

Giving updates of the ongoing operation, DG ISPR said the security forces have accomplished significant achievements, adding the images and videos of the dead militants will be released tomorrow.

He said today Pakistan army?s heliborne troops landed in Peochar, a key Taliban stronghold in the northwest district of Swat. Militants? hideouts were destroyed in Baba Ziarat area and some arrests were also made, he told the reports.

Four security personnel lost their lives in militants? attack on Kanju Police Station and Kilay while 4 militants were killed in Imam Dheri.

Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said the army is setting up hospitals and camps for the IDPs coming from the battle zones and so far 1.3 million people have migrated. In this connection, services of NADRA are being used, he added.

He said Ibn-e-Aql, brother of Ibn-e-Umer, has been killed in the ongoing operation and added that no information has been received of any significant foreign militant?s presence.

The ISPR Chief said efforts are on to drive out the militants from the area. Operation has been conducted from Chakdarra to Gulabad and the militants are swiftly losing ground.

He said the military is abstaining from using helicopters for carrying out offensives to avoid collateral damage and main focus is on ground operation.

Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said the militants have planted land mines on roads and ground in Mingora and Swat.

Government spokesman on the occasion announced that a special fund has been set up for the families affected by terrorist activities.

DG ISPR replying to a question said action is being taken after receiving report from the intelligence agencies but stopped short of giving any details.

 

[tvarad]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch....:


Pakistan expanding its nuclear capability

Excerpts:

On the dusty plain 110 miles southwest of Islamabad, not far from an area controlled by the Taliban, two large new structures are rising, structures that in light of Pakistan?s internal troubles must be considered ominous for the stability of South Asia and, for that matter, the world.

Without any public U.S. reproach, Pakistan is building two of the developing world?s largest plutonium production reactors, which experts say could lead to improvements in the quantity and quality of the country?s nuclear arsenal, now estimated at 60 to 80 weapons.

What makes the project even more threatening is that it is unique.

?Pakistan is really the only country rapidly building up its nuclear forces,? says a U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified nature of the issue, noting that the nations that first developed nuclear weapons are now reducing their arsenals.

Moreover, he and other U.S. officials say, there long have been concerns about those who run the facility where the reactors are being built near the town of Khushab. They note that a month before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Khushab?s former director met with Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and offered a nuclear weapons tutorial around an Afghanistan campfire.

Then there are the billions in U.S. economic and military aid that have permitted Pakistan?s military to divert resources to nuclear and other weapons projects.

Bottom line: Khushab exemplifies all of the dangers posed by the Pakistani nuclear weapons program.

.....

So, who's going to have a "Come to Jesus" meeting with the Pakistani military before this whole thing blows up in the world's face? Not the idiot Kerry who's being played like a violin by these folks.

 

[dphantom]

More bad news for Pakistan. Their operations in SWAT, Dir and Buner appear to have bogged down. Up to 6 more brigades are supposedly on there way.

Towns reportedly secure are in fact surrounded and under seige by Taliban forces. Some towns are still in Taliban control at least in part. No independent news reporting is allowed but the link below offers what I think is the best analysis so far.

Link

 

[Lemon law]

From other links I have seen, and while the Pakistani military are using air power, unlike Nato, they are also putting combat troops on the ground and are not yet to the urban combat phase yet. The long War Journal may be right, only 20 more brigades may not be enough, but if the Pakistani army keeps raising the ante, they can easily achieve that 10-1 force level while giving their ground troops the learning curve experience to become much more effective against a well entrenched Taliban that is going to be hard pressed to continue the fighting a brute force against brute force war.

Now the next question will become, can the Pakistani army start using its brains to drive wedges between various factions, and do what Nato has failed to do, namely convert, with diplomacy, various factions to reduce the size of the opposition.

 

[tvarad]

Lemon Law,
Learn up a little about the Pakistani army history vis-a-vis it's own people. When faced with insurgency in Bangladesh in 1971, it unleashed terror on an unimaginable scale, killing, maiming and raping everything in it's path. It's used similar tactics in Balochistan. This is an army that has never trained to fight insurgency and that takes years, perhaps decades to master. And, given that NWFP, Balochistan, Sindh are little better than colonies of Punjab you can rest assured that the response would be more like pillage than your favorite phrase of winning "hearts and minds". To quote one person fleeing the Swat violence - "Even India didn't bomb the Kashmiris from the air".

 

[Lemon law]

Tvarad, learn that this is 2009 and not 1971, to some extent this may be somewhat like our civil war. It took a full 2 years or so for the Union army to even come close to competing with the better trained and better led confederate forces. But once the Union army learned that running back to base and hiding under its bed for six months every time they got beat up, didn't get them anywhere, a war of attrition started that the confederates could not win. And after a while, the Union forces also learned how to fight more effectively.

Where the Pakistani army is at this stage of the fight may be worth debating, but as Common Courtesy has asked, lets keep this thread on focus because the past is not always a predictor of the future. It is certainly something that is really hurting the civilians in the Tribal regions, but at least the Pakistani army seems committed to putting the boots on the ground its going to take. Where it will go in the near future is what we all need to watch. As these on-going battles also becomes a war of attrition. And those that oppose the Pakistani army will have significant re-supply problems when they only have shanks horses to move their supplies.

 

[tvarad]

But, but, but, aren't you failing your own logic test. If Afghanistan is another Vietnam, why is Swat not another Bangladesh? And, LOL, can you tell me who exactly is Pakistan's Lincoln to guide Pakistan on this learning curve? Zardari, perhaps?

The points are raising is very pertinent to this thread because of the culture of the Pakistani army. To use the well-worn cliche: Every country has an army, but the Pakistani army has it's own country. It's begging for alms with one hand, on the other it's building plutonium producing reactors for more nukes (to use against the Taliban, perhaps?) and wants it's own Predator squadron!!!! That is so typical of it's self-centered approach to controlling Pakistan which is going to be the country's undoing.

 

[Lemon law]

Ok OK tvarad, the Pakistani army has not been the sharpest knife in the drawer, but your perpetual nay saying is getting us no where. Coursed or not, the Pakistani army is taking on the Taliban, and only time will tell if this has a positive or a negative effect. Yes its also going to be a hearts and minds battle, but population wise, the tribal areas of Pakistan are much smaller than the rest of Pakistan. Nato is getting what its been bellyaching for for many years, and we are just going to have to wait and see how it plays out.

As the coin is still spinning in the air, you just keep saying it will flop, which is stupid and self-serving on your part.

You may be right and you may be wrong in the end, but meanwhile you are totally without logic and premature.

 

[The Green Bean]

Cnn reports an urban battle may take place soon in Mingora.http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WO...efugees.aid/index.html
I just hope its over with soon and is not Fallujah 2. I think that the Pakistan army IS serious and looks like they are suceeding. And it seems that they have been very sucessful. The taliban had vowed to release an inferno of suicide bombings if the peace deal broke down. It's been two weeks since the operation began an there has not been even one major incident. I can't speak for Peshawar but things in Karachi are better than they have been for a whole year. I just hope the war is over soon and the IDPs are back in their homes. Otherwise 1 million homeless unemployed people moving to cities can destablize the long term security and economy of the entire region. The rest of the country is not very fond of the pakhtuns. I wouldn't be surprised if Karachi city closed its roads for them.

All in all if things were as bad as some people have claimed i would not have been posting here.

One difference between Bangladesh and this is that the local populatio9n and the internatio9nal community supports this. Another is NWFP is roughly 4% of the Pakistani population while East 'Pakistan had more than 50% at the time. Another is that it's connected with the mainland. It is not on the port. no popular support for the taliban. no public face. besides Pakistan has come a long way in terms of economic prosperity since 1971. Pakhtuns of today would rather own a cell phone rather than a gun. About 70% of the population has cell phones.