The anti-crypto thread

BFG10K

Lifer
Aug 14, 2000
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amenx

Platinum Member
Dec 17, 2004
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It will slowly recover as Chinese crypto-owners learn to shift their holdings to be managed by foreign crypto institutions through VPN.
 
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simas

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Oct 16, 2005
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It will slowly recover as Chinese crypto-owners learn to shift their holdings to be managed by foreign crypto institutions through VPN.
Dont underestimate Chinese state as well - they have different ways to solve problems.. from surveillance to not hesitating to employ a bullet you have to buy from the state for your own execution (for crimes of corruption of society). The crypto games with the state may be 'fun' until the state comes in and solves it, permanently. And it has infinitely more resources than any crypto person, gang, group, whatever. in China wants to end it, they will end it - foreign VPNs would help none.

If I was speculating on this, I would be much more concerned about timing of when this would be crushing down. an 'asset' that has zero backing, no value, no authority with ability to tax , no authority to enforce payment -> the entire crypto is hot air. you played in the flight by night casino and now holding their chips. think of when to cash them or end up with nothing..
 
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amenx

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Dec 17, 2004
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Dont underestimate Chinese state as well - they have different ways to solve problems.. from surveillance to not hesitating to employ a bullet you have to buy from the state for your own execution (for crimes of corruption of society). The crypto games with the state may be 'fun' until the state comes in and solves it, permanently. And it has infinitely more resources than any crypto person, gang, group, whatever. in China wants to end it, they will end it - foreign VPNs would help none.
Its not like its a national security threat requiring very harsh measures. The crypto owners holdings are vast and can be an asset to the Chinese economy, so theres no point for the state to crack down too hard on them. They just want to crimp their ability to continue generating or investing in highly speculative instruments that can ultimately become a problem at some point in time. Anything too speculative backed up by zero assets is probably what concerns the Chinese, esp if done on too large a scale.
 

simas

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Oct 16, 2005
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Its not like its a national security threat requiring very harsh measures. The crypto owners holdings are vast and can be an asset to the Chinese economy, so theres no point for the state to crack down too hard on them. They just want to crimp their ability to continue generating or investing in highly speculative instruments that can ultimately become a problem at some point in time. Anything too speculative backed up by zero assets is probably what concerns the Chinese, esp if done on too large a scale.
They are introducing digital rembini already (if you listen to their bloggers) with distribution across multiple provinces and various tests. This is the path they communicated publicly in internal media and plan they put money, people, energy behind.

Regarding risks - why would they tolerate their people being beholden to any other influence especially external influence? imagine a key minister, military official , person with access to secure information (or their families) holding 'wallet' and getting threat of wallet being paused/removed, etc. Easy blackmail, extortion, remote control, threats - what state would tolerate it? very much a massive national security risk. I think no state with any power to enforce its laws is going to tolerate external crypto at all due to massive national security threats , it is just a matter of time.
 

GodisanAtheist

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Nov 16, 2006
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Its not like its a national security threat requiring very harsh measures. The crypto owners holdings are vast and can be an asset to the Chinese economy, so theres no point for the state to crack down too hard on them. They just want to crimp their ability to continue generating or investing in highly speculative instruments that can ultimately become a problem at some point in time. Anything too speculative backed up by zero assets is probably what concerns the Chinese, esp if done on too large a scale.
- Governments are predicated on the fact that they have a monopoly on power/violence in their respective territories. Anything that challenges that power is ultimately a threat that has to be eliminated, otherwise there is the risk of becoming a failed state.

I can see China accepting a state backed crypto, where the gov't controls the actual exchanges and the coin itself, but I don't see China being cool with basically a shadow currency that exists largely outside the government's control.
 

simas

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Oct 16, 2005
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- Governments are predicated on the fact that they have a monopoly on power/violence in their respective territories. Anything that challenges that power is ultimately a threat that has to be eliminated, otherwise there is the risk of becoming a failed state.

I can see China accepting a state backed crypto, where the gov't controls the actual exchanges and the coin itself, but I don't see China being cool with basically a shadow currency that exists largely outside the government's control.
I think you said it very well. States that would not restrict non-state-sanctioned-crypto and allow it to exist in its territory are failed states or on the way to become so. You would be free to run crypto farms and use bitcoin in Somali if you wish to but any other place would shut it down fast.
 

blckgrffn

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May 1, 2003
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www.teamjuchems.com
Seconding (thirding?) the bearish correction sentiments here.

Interesting to see an influencer like Elon being so impactful, imo. My distaste for cults of personalities is absolute.

Personally, I think valuations on Wall Street are based on even less utility than crypto in many cases. I don't want to start a debate on it, but if you are dollar cost averaging into wall street index funds (me! I do this!) there is some form of "numbers go up because numbers go up!" shenanigans going on there and the inputs to make that happen are certainly non-zero when it comes to human and ecological capital.

Anyway, I think the retail fallout of inability of GPUs to be irrelevant to crypto (bubble bursting based, ASIC based, or legislation based) is going to be super interesting.

And my guess is that is what people are really interested in - the ability to buy a video card without 100%-300% crypto demand tax. I would certainly enjoy that as well.
 
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simas

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Oct 16, 2005
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I think it is less of timing more of 'this time is not different' attitude from those who have been around for a little longer than millennials or have attention span longer than few seconds.

- is digital currency likely ? sure, absolutely. In each country and between countries. You already are not paying for the car/house/big purchase with loads of cash, it is all documents/wire. In many cases you are not paying for things like TV, laptop, etc with cash , it is all credit/debit card.

- is this digitalization good or bad? Who knows! Each individual state would LOVE to see absolutely everything you do (from tips you pay to change you give to person asking for it). If state can see it -> it can control it, tax it, etc.

- are states going to clamped down on it? certainly. national security risks, shady activities , etc.

-> is made up "state-free" crypto long term? Who knows. I dont think so, many reasons including
-- absolutely zero intrinsic value. not even hot air
-- no way to enforce transaction. If you are cheated, what jurisdiction is this going to be recovered under? who guarantees payment?
-- zero privacy (absolute control, much worse than fiat cash)
-- zero control over the amount that is 'created' or destroyed, or claimed to be created or destroyed.

total scam and very typical mania, not different from any other manias that happened many times in history (tulip mania ,etc).

and as in every other mania , in every time it happened - few early 'promoters' would steal the money from the pyramid and run away with it, few get away with what they put in , vast majority get totally burned. and very soon I think regulation is coming controlling this, the regulation that people would demand , in order to better 'protect them'.

i.e. if I create dog-e-share offering today and offer shares to public, I would be nailed on many , many laws and end up with proceeds confiscated and myself in jail
however, if I create dog-e-coin and offer even less , with zero regulation , zero information -> then somehow it is ok to do so. Why?
 
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DisarmedDespot

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Jun 2, 2016
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Cryptocurrency will bounce back. This is unfortunate as it really, really sucks, but it's fueled by nothing but hype and the scammers and suckers who have latched onto it aren't gonna give up on it, no matter what observable reality says about the dead-end tech.

  • Blockchain sucks. Ethereum's blockchain — the largest cryptocurrency people try to actually use for anything — has been clogged since 2017. Average transaction fees are $20, and if you get unlucky and miscalculate the fees, your transaction either sits for days or never goes through. Layer 2 solutions like Lightning Network would help if they actually worked (spoiler: they don't). Microsoft is dropping its blockchain offerings and IBM unofficially ended development on their's. There's no (legal) use for blockchain where a distributed database wouldn't do better.
  • They're private, until someone finds out which wallet you use and then can track EVERY transaction you've made with that wallet. Surprise, public ledgers might not be the best idea for privacy.
  • Cryptocurrencies originally were to solve one problem: handling transactions between two parties with zero trust between them and no trusted third parties. These situations are EXTREMELY rare in real life, and those that do exist are generally illegal anyway.

Hell, the fees for most cryptos are so high now that the ONLY use cryptocurrency has besides speculation is ransomware.
 

Shmee

Memory and Storage, Graphics Cards
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Sep 13, 2008
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Cryptocurrency will bounce back. This is unfortunate as it really, really sucks, but it's fueled by nothing but hype and the scammers and suckers who have latched onto it aren't gonna give up on it, no matter what observable reality says about the dead-end tech.

  • Blockchain sucks. Ethereum's blockchain — the largest cryptocurrency people try to actually use for anything — has been clogged since 2017. Average transaction fees are $20, and if you get unlucky and miscalculate the fees, your transaction either sits for days or never goes through. Layer 2 solutions like Lightning Network would help if they actually worked (spoiler: they don't). Microsoft is dropping its blockchain offerings and IBM unofficially ended development on their's. There's no (legal) use for blockchain where a distributed database wouldn't do better.
  • They're private, until someone finds out which wallet you use and then can track EVERY transaction you've made with that wallet. Surprise, public ledgers might not be the best idea for privacy.
  • Cryptocurrencies originally were to solve one problem: handling transactions between two parties with zero trust between them and no trusted third parties. These situations are EXTREMELY rare in real life, and those that do exist are generally illegal anyway.

Hell, the fees for most cryptos are so high now that the ONLY use cryptocurrency has besides speculation is ransomware.
You make a point about blockchains, this is valid, especially for ETH and BTC, but not for all cryptocurrencies. Some do not have public ledgers. As for use as currency, it seems like some are trying to do that. I hear lots of hype about safemoon.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
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Cryptocurrency will bounce back. This is unfortunate as it really, really sucks, but it's fueled by nothing but hype and the scammers and suckers who have latched onto it aren't gonna give up on it, no matter what observable reality says about the dead-end tech.

  • Blockchain sucks. Ethereum's blockchain — the largest cryptocurrency people try to actually use for anything — has been clogged since 2017. Average transaction fees are $20, and if you get unlucky and miscalculate the fees, your transaction either sits for days or never goes through. Layer 2 solutions like Lightning Network would help if they actually worked (spoiler: they don't). Microsoft is dropping its blockchain offerings and IBM unofficially ended development on their's. There's no (legal) use for blockchain where a distributed database wouldn't do better.

Hell, the fees for most cryptos are so high now that the ONLY use cryptocurrency has besides speculation is ransomware.
Microsoft and IBM don't need open transparent decentralized databases. The financial world does. If you don't believe that, I hope you're enjoying the 20-50% hike on groceries from prior to COVID. Or the never ending yearly 10% increases on home prices. Or gold and silver having God only knows how much fake paper shorting it to keep the illusion going that everything is fine because paper can be created and destroyed on demand. Or Robinhood preventing you from legally selling shares of a stock you own just because the hedge funds lost.

Blockchains aren't suitable for daily transactions. That's been pretty well established by now. But there are still a ton of great use cases for them even outside of financial markets. The NFT market is a great example. 99% of NFTs are junk, just like altcoins. But there are some mind blowing good use cases for them that are only possible because of smart contract technology. I'm building up a new business around one use case right now while everyone keeps chasing Dogecoin et al to the top (or bottom now).

Lastly, Ethereum is transitioning to PoS. All of the major "Gen 3.0" contenders are PoS. So hopefully this is/was the last time there will ever be GPU shortages. Then crypto and gamers can finally co-exist in peace. :)
 
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DigDog

Lifer
Jun 3, 2011
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All currency is fiat currency.
the way crypto works is not different than gold.
excessive confidence in ANY currency - e.g. the tulip bulb bubble - will cause a crash.
It is NOT the currency itself that crashes, it's the bubble. Do really think the effort to mine a bitcoin is comparable to other real-world services of a value of $40k ??
 
Feb 4, 2009
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-> is made up "state-free" crypto long term? Who knows. I dont think so, many reasons including
-- absolutely zero intrinsic value. not even hot air
-- no way to enforce transaction. If you are cheated, what jurisdiction is this going to be recovered under? who guarantees payment?
-- zero privacy (absolute control, much worse than fiat cash)
-- zero control over the amount that is 'created' or destroyed, or claimed to be created or destroyed.
Number One & Two reasons right here why it will ultimately fail.
 

DisarmedDespot

Senior member
Jun 2, 2016
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Microsoft and IBM don't need open transparent decentralized databases. The financial world does. If you don't believe that, I hope you're enjoying the 20-50% hike on groceries from prior to COVID. Or the never ending yearly 10% increases on home prices. Or gold and silver having God only knows how much fake paper shorting it to keep the illusion going that everything is fine because paper can be created and destroyed on demand. Or Robinhood preventing you from legally selling shares of a stock you own just because the hedge funds lost.
I'll be completely honest, I have no idea how you think cryptos solve pandemic price hikes or the housing market. Those are both supply and demand, no matter what currency is used. Cryptos don't suddenly fix disrupted supply chains or make enough houses to satisfy demand. Care to elaborate?

Oh, and regarding the stock market, I agree it's insane. Cryptos are no better or even worse. Look at today, ALL the big exchanges (Binance, Kraken, Coinbase) restricted sales or mysteriously crashed at the same time. Meanwhile, they were still letting Coinbase Prime businesses trade. Hmm?
 

DisarmedDespot

Senior member
Jun 2, 2016
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You make a point about blockchains, this is valid, especially for ETH and BTC, but not for all cryptocurrencies. Some do not have public ledgers. As for use as currency, it seems like some are trying to do that. I hear lots of hype about safemoon.
This is where my knowledge of cryptos runs out, I'm not familiar with the blockchain alternatives like Nano. What's the use-case for private ledgers? Is it for internal use by enterprises or is it for a smaller exclusive group? If institutions, I'd think another distributed database would work better, and private groups just seems more rife for manipulation and 51% attacks than public ones.
 

Leon

Platinum Member
Nov 14, 1999
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Yeah, I heard this before back in 2018. It shot up to $16,000, then bottomed out at $3,000. We are going through the same phase again. Despite the sell-off however, mining profits remain steady - panic selling clogs up the network, and miners get higher fees for their service.
 
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maddogmcgee

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Apr 20, 2015
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You know the best thing about Bitcoin and Eth rapidly falling? It massively increases the profits of miners. They were about 5x last night when I looked and will continue to be higher while their is volatility ;)
 

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